(NFL) Plays for Week 17

**Madison** · 12-28-24, 12:07 PM

Next 2 weeks are all about who is willing/ready to play and who is resting etc.

Start your votes here.

IF we (my survivor partner) can get TB home today we have GB week 18, Will they show up? Strange to win 17weeks survivor have it all come down to who is willing/ready to play??

I have sneaky feeling NE may show up today. Their OC is so Vanilla not sure he has diversity in his playbook?

BOL Chucky, and happy, profitable, and mostly healthy new year to you and yours!!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-28-24, 12:16 PM

Thanks, Mad. I've stated how bad my NFL opinion is this year.

One hidden motivation for the Jets this week. If they throw up an absolute egg...and do so again next week, I could see Rodgers throwing in the towel.

I know he likes money. But if you're shot, pride kicks in. Being competitive this week would be a start.

Happy Holidays. Hope 2025 is good to you.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-28-24, 12:18 PM

Mad, I thought about NEW ENG and CLEV this week just on principle. But the projected temps aren't low enuf.

As for Clev, wow this QB is bad. Jamarcus Russell looked @his stats and had a good laugh.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-24, 11:53 AM

1* SAN FRAN 49ers +3.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...This game is going to look like a walkover. Lions in the midst of a huge season. Niners eliminated from playoff contention.
...How disappointing have the Niners been? Hold-outs during camp, and the great roster fizzled.
...I don't think it's a good spot for DET. Long trip west, laying points with the home finale vs MIN looming.
...Doesn't look good, if you line up the YTD standings. Feel like the fair-value is closer.
...Will the Niners show some pride in a meaningless game? I'm backing the contrarian Home Dog.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-24, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

OK, NFL has rattled my brain in 2024. Have been playing NFL sparingly.

Found a play I "like" for this week: 2* New York Jets +10 1.91: 2 to win 1.82.
...Is Allen as banged up as they say? Limping to the finish-line?
...Chef win means that the 1-seed is gone. Now just playing to hold the 2-seed over Baltimore.
...A little less motivation IMHO. Going to take a lot to get to the finish line.
...Jets should be loose. No pressure, if you will. Chance for redemption @end of a lost season?
...Bills have been very fortunate on the Fumbles over the course of the season. My feeling is that the Double-Digit price may be too much. Especially if you compare it to pre-season expectations.
...People have written off the Jets. Why back em? Enough of a contrarian angle for me.

Good Luck, if you try it.

Holy shit, is Rodgers washed. Like Cousins, his mobility has dropped to zero.

Guy has stolen money the last two seasons. NO WAY he can come back next season. He'd have to pick up his check while wearing a mask.

I mentioned that they had to look decent for him to come back. It's a lost cause, hang it up, guy.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-30-24, 11:05 PM

(Week) -3/3. Two duds. Pathetic efforts. Guys that had no interest in playing this year.

(Coll) +4.41

Ending

144.58

**Eddy Munny** · 12-30-24, 11:09 PM

Chucky's more amused by the word "contrarian" than he is with lining his pockets.

It's 2024, backing an ugly dog just because no one else wants to is not a formula to default to.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-30-24, 11:12 PM

Happy Holidays, guys. Doing much better on Coll.

NFL 2024 is very tricky. Props on anyone clearing a profit in NFL this year.

**Gaze73** · 12-31-24, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

Chucky's more amused by the word "contrarian" than he is with lining his pockets.

It's 2024, backing an ugly dog just because no one else wants to is not a formula to default to.

Why are the spreads so small then? A bad dog with lots of injuries gets +3.5 even though nobody likes them, is Vegas stupid? How am I supposed to fade the public when Vegas likes to gift people small spreads.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-31-24, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Why are the spreads so small then? A bad dog with lots of injuries gets +3.5 even though nobody likes them, is Vegas stupid? How am I supposed to fade the public when Vegas likes to gift people small spreads.

Gaze, I think you hit on it. As a long-time student of NFL, I think there are a couple things in play:
1) If you back 30+ years in NFL, the databases will show that the league USED to have a Dog bias:
...In particular, the Home Dogs ran ~ 54% ATS over a long sample size. There was enough public bias, to bloat the line on Public teams just enough.
...Same type of thing on Double Digit favorites. The public liked those teams in mismatch games. If you took the short-side on Contrarian dogs, you could clear a profit.

2) I honestly think that type of Dog bettor is still out there.
...They think in terms of Home Dogs and Double Digit dogs.
...It's in the database. So, keep doing it.

Might be true. But the oddsmaker is not going to accomodate. As you correctly point out, so many of these lines look short.

I don't know the YTD record of Dogs ATS. So often, I see the # and feel like the # is two points short.

Just my opinion. NFL in 2024 is a very tough handicap. Happy New Year, gaze, take it easy.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-31-24, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

(Week) -3/3. Two duds. Pathetic efforts. Guys that had no interest in playing this year.

(Coll) +4.41

Ending

144.58

ytd = +44.58

...Will wrap up after the Super Bowl. So, end of Fiscal year.
...Not many plays left. Handful of Coll post-season games pending. About nine units on NFL futures.

**str** · 12-31-24, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Gaze, I think you hit on it. As a long-time student of NFL, I think there are a couple things in play:
1) If you back 30+ years in NFL, the databases will show that the league USED to have a Dog bias:
...In particular, the Home Dogs ran ~ 54% ATS over a long sample size. There was enough public bias, to bloat the line on Public teams just enough.
...Same type of thing on Double Digit favorites. The public liked those teams in mismatch games. If you took the short-side on Contrarian dogs, you could clear a profit.

2) I honestly think that type of Dog bettor is still out there.
...They think in terms of Home Dogs and Double Digit dogs.
...It's in the database. So, keep doing it.

Might be true. But the oddsmaker is not going to accomodate. As you correctly point out, so many of these lines look short.

I don't know the YTD record of Dogs ATS. So often, I see the # and feel like the # is two points short.

Just my opinion. NFL in 2024 is a very tough handicap. Happy New Year, gaze, take it easy.

Lines can be played with or skewed a bit but if you judge openers for instance, just one of many ways to follow, the Favorites had 11 winning weeks and dogs 4, with two ties and one week pending. By this count 34 more favs covered than dogs but this is in a pool where every game has a 1/2 point on it. So it is not entirely accurate, except within itself. There were also 6 weeks where the favorites had 10 wins or more in them.

Just backs what you you guys are saying Chucky.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-31-24, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by str

Lines can be played with or skewed a bit but if you judge openers for instance, just one of many ways to follow, the Favorites had 11 winning weeks and dogs 4, with two ties and one week pending. By this count 34 more favs covered than dogs but this is in a pool where every game has a 1/2 point on it. So it is not entirely accurate, except within itself. There were also 6 weeks where the favorites had 10 wins or more in them.

Just backs what you you guys are saying Chucky.

Those are great stats, str. Thank you!

Some guys play ANGLES. NFL does have a long history of upsets. Think of the phrase ANY GIVEN SUNDAY.

In recent years I see fewer shock results. I think the advancement of the passing game is a factor:
*Rule changes make it very hard to play tough Pass Defense. So many defensive penalties.
*The TOP QBs really don't have (many) bad games. The TD/INT ratio has increased over time.

So often, I look at the weekly lines and see favorites that look two points short. Reasonable strategy might be to bet on winning teams when the line looks too short. Props to anyone who is profiting on NFL in 2024.