Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Picks

**SBR Andy** · 01-06-25, 02:06 PM

CFP Semifinal Prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Notre Dame-Penn State Under 47 (-110 via Caesars)

"While this game is being played at the Miami Dolphins' home, Hard Rock Stadium, and the Over/Under looks like an NFL total, I assure you, this is a College Football Playoff contest. Notre Dame and Penn State have been two of the sport's best defenses all year. They've continued this high-level play against playoff-caliber competition, allowing a combined 51 points across 16 quarters in the postseason.

The Fighting Irish (No. 2 in points per game allowed) and Nittany Lions (No. 5) both boast top-five scoring defenses. They've surrendered 13.6 points and 15.8 points per game, respectively, and we don't expect much difference in the Orange Bowl.

Notre Dame and Penn State lean to the Under at a 16-13 clip this season, so we're sticking to the trends for this semifinal showdown. A 47-point total is high for two run-heavy, defensive football teams."

**actiondan** · 01-06-25, 04:35 PM

agree on under. looking for another side to tease with penn state

**Headsterx** · 01-07-25, 06:25 AM

Luck be an Irish tonight!

Notre Dame

**SBR Andy** · 01-07-25, 10:00 AM

Betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet (tickets) Notre Dame-Penn State player props
1. Jadarian Price to score anytime touchdown (+185)
2. Jeremiyah Love under 38.5 rushing yards (-115)
3. Harrison Wallace over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
4. Jordan Faison over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
5. Riley Leonard under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-300)

**actiondan** · 01-07-25, 04:27 PM

faison should go over. #5 is jewsee. no thanks

**beatingthebook** · 01-07-25, 04:36 PM

Just got the Under 45.5 at +108 - let's go!

**SBR Andy** · 01-08-25, 10:22 AM

Notre Dame vs Penn State spread pick, from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Penn State +2.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Where are the "James Franklin can't win big games" folks now? Have they crawled back into their holes? Franklin has his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of the national championship after two dominant wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Penn State thrashed SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.

It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions have been in control since the opening kickoff of the first round.

Thus proving the Nittany Lions' frontman can win big games; he just struggles to beat Michigan and Ohio State consistently, understandably so. Franklin's 101-41 record (.711 win percentage) is impressive as is, but he's 97-24 (.802) against any team not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes during his time in Happy Valley.
One of the other reasons I like Penn State to cover in this contest is because of the way Drew Allar is playing. He's limited the turnovers in his two playoff games and he's spread the ball around efficiently.

That's not to say Riley Leonard hasn't, but Leonard's game relies more on his dual-threat ability. The Nittany Lions are surely going to try and limit Notre Dame's rushing attack, forcing Leonard to turn to the air to move the ball downfield. Abdul Carter and Co. wreak havoc for even the best offensive lines, Joe Moore Award semifinalists or not.

In an ugly, low-scoring affair - which I believe this will be - I'm siding with the team that has Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton, Tyler Warren, and others on its depth chart. College Football Insiders give Penn State a slight head-to-head advantage in this matchup. As such, I'll take the Nittany Lions with the points any day of the week and twice on Sunday."

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 01-08-25, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Notre Dame vs Penn State spread pick, from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Penn State +2.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Where are the "James Franklin can't win big games" folks now? Have they crawled back into their holes? Franklin has his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of the national championship after two dominant wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Penn State thrashed SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.

It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions have been in control since the opening kickoff of the first round.

Thus proving the Nittany Lions' frontman can win big games; he just struggles to beat Michigan and Ohio State consistently, understandably so. Franklin's 101-41 record (.711 win percentage) is impressive as is, but he's 97-24 (.802) against any team not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes during his time in Happy Valley.
One of the other reasons I like Penn State to cover in this contest is because of the way Drew Allar is playing. He's limited the turnovers in his two playoff games and he's spread the ball around efficiently.

That's not to say Riley Leonard hasn't, but Leonard's game relies more on his dual-threat ability. The Nittany Lions are surely going to try and limit Notre Dame's rushing attack, forcing Leonard to turn to the air to move the ball downfield. Abdul Carter and Co. wreak havoc for even the best offensive lines, Joe Moore Award semifinalists or not.

In an ugly, low-scoring affair - which I believe this will be - I'm siding with the team that has Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton, Tyler Warren, and others on its depth chart. College Football Insiders give Penn State a slight head-to-head advantage in this matchup. As such, I'll take the Nittany Lions with the points any day of the week and twice on Sunday."

That is a bunch of hogwash, so now after beating SMU and Boise St as a TD+ favorites, Franklin is a big game coach? If he beats ND, then some of that will go away. The 2 games he won were against inferior teams in inferior conferences with inferior talent.

Give me ND in this game and Franklin will start getting a bit of respect should he win tomorrow night.

**brock** · 01-08-25, 01:39 PM

I'm looking for some action on Penn St.

**franz555** · 01-08-25, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

That is a bunch of hogwash, so now after beating SMU and Boise St as a TD+ favorites, Franklin is a big game coach? If he beats ND, then some of that will go away. The 2 games he won were against inferior teams in inferior conferences with inferior talent.

Give me ND in this game and Franklin will start getting a bit of respect should he win tomorrow night.

Yes Sir

GO IRISH

**actiondan** · 01-08-25, 04:36 PM

once upon a time mack brown couldn’t win the big one. if penn state can limit the irish running attack like they did to boise they should win. i’m sticking with my teaser and will look for in game opportunities

**SBR Andy** · 01-09-25, 08:47 AM

Notre Dame vs Penn State player prop picks, from SBR's Mike Spector

Tyler Warren Anytime TD +100 (DraftKings)

"Notre Dame loves to play man coverage as its base defense more often than zone, and arguably, no player (not just tight end) is more of a mismatch in the country than Warren.

The Fighting Irish do not necessarily have the linebacking corps to match Warren's size or speed, so Marcus Freeman's most logical move is to bring Xavier Watts up from the safety spot to defend the All-American tight end.

However, Watts went to the medical tent late in the game against Georgia with a shoulder injury. Freeman may not want to use Watts in man coverage often because it leaves the team susceptible on the back end.

Warren was named the Offensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl after catching six passes for 63 yards and two touchdowns. His 13-yard touchdown reception was his 98th catch of the season, which broke the Penn State single-season record previously held by Allen Robinson (97 in 2013).

Warren has at least one touchdown in two of the last four games and three of the last six. His anytime touchdown odds are certainly worth a play at this 50% implied probability, considering his implied probability is as high as 58.85% through Caesars’ -143 odds."

Riley Leonard Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-109 Caesars)

"Leonard torched Georgia's defense for 80 rushing yards. He has now gone over this projected total in two of the last three games.

However, the Bulldogs' defense was susceptible to running quarterbacks all season, so I am not buying into this inflated line for this matchup against Penn State.

The Nittany Lions were one of three FBS teams to not allow a rushing touchdown by a quarterback this season. And they allowed 134 opposing quarterback rushing yards (excluding sacks), which were 11th-fewest among FBS teams."

Jeremiyah Love Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-125 bet365)

"How healthy is Love after he reportedly finished the Georgia game with a brace on his injured knee? If this were a regular season game, we might be talking about him getting a much-needed week off, especially since he was not 100% after the Indiana game.

The fact that this line has plummeted as low as 37.5 at FanDuel suggests that Love will cede a ton of carries to Jadarian Price, who already had 110 carries to Love's 148 this season.

Even if Love were completely healthy, he would likely find it difficult sledding against a Penn State rush defense that allows 101 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush while giving up a total of just eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

The Nittany Lions had a fantastic game plan in holding Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry. I look for them to similarly stack the box and dare Leonard to beat them with his arm."

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 08:58 AM

What? Riley Leonard u47.5 rushing yds? No! I’m taking o47.5. Run, Riley, Run!

**SBR Andy** · 01-09-25, 02:01 PM

Notre Dame vs Penn State Same Game Parlay from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

1) Notre Dame -1.5 (-108)
2) Jadarian Prince Under 48.5 rushing yards (-114)
3) Riley Leonard Over 164.5 passing yards (-114)
= +575 via FanDuel

ND -1.5 (-108)

"While Penn State boasts the most dynamic offense the Irish will have seen to this point in the playoffs, the matchup should also serve as a wake-up call for the Nittany Lions after easing into the CFP with SMU and Boise State.

Notre Dame, which sits third in the college football championship odds, is 11-2-1 against the spread this season, and this line sits below a field-goal margin. Following the early-season hiccup against Northern Illinois, nine straight double-digit wins have positioned the Irish as one of the nation's most dominant teams."

Price Under 48.5 rush yds (-114)

"Jadarian Price led Notre Dame's backfield in carries during the win over Georgia, but virtually all of Price’s opportunities in that Sugar Bowl came after Jeremiyah Love aggravated his knee injury. Marcus Freeman has indicated that Love will be “good to go” Thursday.

Penn State allows just 101.3 rushing yards per game (eighth in the FBS). Price has fallen short of this rushing total eight times this season, including in consecutive CFP contests despite drawing 10-plus carries in those outings.

Pairing a Notre Dame player prop Under with the Notre Dame spread boosts our SGP odds due to the contrarian angle. DraftKings and BetMGM don’t offer the Under on Price’s rushing yards, solidifying FanDuel as the place to submit this SGP."

Leonard Over 164.5 pass yds (-114)

"Riley Leonard threw for just 90 yards during the Sugar Bowl and has cleared this line only six times on the season.

Still, the Irish should lean on their quarterback to make enough throws to put this prop in play against a Penn State defense that's been friendlier against the pass than the run.

The Nittany Lions have permitted 260.7 passing yards per game across their three postseason matchups, allowing all three opposing quarterbacks to sail past 164.5 yards. FanDuel offers +575 odds on the SGP."

Available FanDuel promos to apply to this SGP:

1) No sweat 3+leg SGP - get your stake back in bonus bets if the bet loses
2) 30% CFB profit boost - boost the odds of this SGP from ~~+575~~ to +748

**Buckeye** · 01-09-25, 05:09 PM

Penn State the better team, and should win by at least 7 points tonight. They will force Riley Leonard to beat them and not sure he can do it.

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 01-09-25, 05:12 PM

Franklin has not won a big game yet. Penn St has a real chance wining a big game tonight. Even if they do win it's not a win over TX or Ohio St. I really would like to know how heathy the DE is.

**19th Hole** · 01-09-25, 05:42 PM

^^^^^^^

5-4-3-2-1

poof

**19th Hole** · 01-09-25, 05:50 PM

Penn St/ND
Ohio St/Texas

Excited for the CFP semi-finals.

Blind Faith
and
BIG10 for me.

Best of Luck To All SBR Members!!

Lets Goooooo!!!

**actiondan** · 01-09-25, 06:24 PM

flipped favorite. same thing happened with nd/georgia game

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

flipped favorite. same thing happened with nd/georgia game

Opening line had Penn St as fav -2 and then ND was fav which went back to Penn St. So slightly different.

**stevenash** · 01-09-25, 06:34 PM

PSU + and under.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

PSU + and under.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Oh no, got ND and over. At least someone is going to have a nice evening. Good luck!

**stevenash** · 01-09-25, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Oh no, got ND and over. At least someone is going to have a nice evening. Good luck!

Settle for a split?

**Eddy Munny** · 01-09-25, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Opening line had Penn St as fav -2 and then ND was fav which went back to Penn St. So slightly different.

Penn State did not open as the favorite.

**navyblue81** · 01-09-25, 06:50 PM

If this game was the first game of the playoff at a neutral site, I’d take ND all day long. But…ND coming off a much more physical battle than Penn State who has had an easier road AND two days more rest and ND has some big injuries…there’s a reason why the favorite flipped.

**SBR Andy** · 01-09-25, 06:53 PM

I'm on Penn State (-106). GL gents

**Chiefs83** · 01-09-25, 07:21 PM

Kaytron Allen over 57.5 rushing yards

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

Penn State did not open as the favorite.

Ops, I read it wrong when it first came out. Thanks!

**stevenash** · 01-09-25, 07:53 PM

My worst nightmare, Sean McDonough on the mic doing play by play.

He's beyond brutal.

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

My worst nightmare, Sean McDonough on the mic doing play by play.

He's beyond brutal.

That is not going be your biggest problem tonight. 🤣

**Headsterx** · 01-09-25, 08:00 PM

Why did PSU make a fair catch inside the 5 yds? But chance to let it drop and go into end zone but not complaining.

**actiondan** · 01-09-25, 08:29 PM

mcdonough not nearly as bad as tesitore

**stevenash** · 01-09-25, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

mcdonough not nearly as bad as tesitore

Joe's perfect on WWE though.

McDonough = Joe Buck
Both got their gigs because their dads are sports media legends.
Nepotism at its finest.

**Eddy Munny** · 01-09-25, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

mcdonough not nearly as bad as tesitore

McDonough doesn't have a "big game" voice/presence.

Seems like he should be assigned to AAC afternoon games on the Deuce.