Ohio State vs Texas Cotton Bowl Picks

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 01-03-25, 11:37 AM

Ohio St. -6, they're on a roll. Get aboard the train or fade like a fool.

**SBR Andy** · 01-06-25, 02:05 PM

CFP Semifinal Prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Texas +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

"This line screams - say it with me, class - overreaction. Ohio State finally seems to have lived up to its sky-high potential from preseason, and it's hard to pick against the Buckeyes at the moment. Furthermore, Texas played sloppy second-half football against Arizona State and very nearly paid the ultimate price for playing with its food.

At the end of the day, though, I don't believe Ohio State is six points better than the Longhorns.

Texas' roster is constructed similarly to a team that's given the Buckeyes issues over the last four years: Michigan. The Longhorns - like the Wolverines - lean on strong play in the trenches and expect to bully opponents every time they take the field. Steve Sarkisian's defense is much better than either Oregon's or Tennessee's, and it has the speed at every level to compete with its Big Ten adversary.

It's extremely difficult for teams to play three perfect games in a row, which Ohio State will attempt to do in the Cotton Bowl. This is also a quasi-home game for Texas, whose fans will undoubtedly dominate the crowd at AT&T Stadium. I'll refrain from making an outright prediction, but I believe the Longhorns will keep it closer than the spread suggests."

**ttwarrior1** · 01-06-25, 02:08 PM

texas and over

**SBR Andy** · 01-07-25, 10:28 AM

Betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet (tickets) Ohio State-Texas player props
1. Jeremiah Smith to score anytime touchdown (-125)
2. Treveyon Henderson over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)
3. Treveyon Henderson under 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
4. Quintrevion Wisner under 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
5. Jeremiah Smith over 84.5 receiving yards (-115)

**brock** · 01-08-25, 01:45 PM

I was on Oregon so after that blowout I'm thinking Ohio St.
I know it may be the wrong reason to like Ohio St but that's
my play.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 01-08-25, 01:50 PM

Give me Texas and the points

**RM Logic** · 01-08-25, 10:16 PM

I cant get a handle on why Texas doesnt play better than what they have showed. Two losses to a Georgia team that isnt very good this year. And Texas played terrible against ASU and would have lost if they called targeting.Their talent level is on par with Ohio State but something is off with this team.
Maybe they play up to their talent this game.
I like the Texas team total under 24.

**SBR Andy** · 01-09-25, 09:10 AM

Ohio State vs Texas best bet, from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Jeremiah Smith Anytime TD -125 (BetMGM)

"Jeremiah Smith has been the best player in the country since the start of the College Football Playoff. The freshman has put up 290 yards in two games, including a season-high 187 during Ohio State's 41-21 win over No. 1 Oregon. As a result, his receiving yards prop has jumped to anywhere from 79.5 to 85.5 yards.Smith's only gone over these totals at a 50% clip over the last four games, so instead, we'll turn to his touchdown props. Even though his odds as an anytime touchdown scorer are juiced to -125 at BetMGM, it's a play we feel comfortable recommending.Smith has four touchdowns over the past two games. He's got 15 total this season, and he's only failed to find the end zone in three of 14 games. The superstar wideout is scoring at a 78.57% clip and with these odds implying just a 55.56% probability he finds pay dirt, there's too much value to pass up on."

**unde0087** · 01-10-25, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Give me Texas and the points

Ya, every dick, joe, and harry on OSU along with almost every tout in the country. Usually that doesn't end well.

**ex50warrior** · 01-10-25, 07:59 AM

Probably a classic case of prisoner of the moment but I've got the Buckeyes.

**SBR Andy** · 01-10-25, 10:01 AM

Ohio State vs Texas Player Prop Bets, from SBR's Mike Spector:

Jeremiah Smith 1st Half Touchdown(+140 DraftKings)

"Jeremiah Smith has stamped his breakout freshman season with 13 catches, 290 receiving yards, and four touchdowns through Ohio State's first two College Football Playoff games.

Smith has been routinely torching the best defenses he's faced all season, with three total touchdowns in two games against Oregon, two against Tennessee, and one when clashing with a stingy Iowa unit.

Smith’s -125 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars against Texas are manageable compared to the steeper -165 price through FanDuel (carrying a 62.26% implied probability).

But I'm instead opting for a more appealing play and taking Smith to score a first-half touchdown. He's done that in both of Ohio State's playoff games, including the first touchdown of the game during the first three minutes of each contest."

Quinn Ewers Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

"Quinn Ewers has soared over this projected total during two of his last three games, throwing for 322-plus yards twice during that span. Ewers finished the regular season with three straight clunkers of 218 or fewer passing yards. But the Longhorns didn't face an explosive offense they needed to keep up with during those wins against Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Arkansas.

The signal-caller has gone over this projected passing total three times during the past four games when Texas has given up 22-plus points. And the Buckeyes' defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in success rate, so the Longhorns should need to push the ball downfield more than usual while behind the chains.

Ohio State has scored 40-plus points while accumulating 450-plus yards from scrimmage in both playoff wins this season, and Ewers and the Longhorns will likely need to throw the ball plenty to keep pace.

Over backers are getting the best number and price at FanDuel. Our competing best sportsbooks like Caesars and bet365 are setting the total at 244.5, with the Over at bet365 also juiced to -115."

TreVeyon Henderson Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

"TreVeyon Henderson hasn't finished with more carries in a game than teammate Quinshon Judkins during the team's previous 12 contests. So it's clear that Ryan Day’s preferred pecking order is Judkins getting the bulk of the work.

That makes this a great sell-high spot on Henderson, as he's coming off a season-high 94 rushing yards on just eight carries. But that was against an Oregon defense that had ranked below the 20th percentile in stuff rate and defensive line yards.

A Texas defense that entered last week ranked in the 98th percentile or better in EPA/play allowed, rush explosiveness allowed, and rush success rate allowed should provide much more resistance in the trenches.

With the O/U a tad lower at 44.5 through bet365 and Caesars, I'm making this wager at FanDuel."

Be sure to check the SBR Player Props Tool to bet the best current odds on each of these picks!

**SBR Andy** · 01-10-25, 02:16 PM

Ohio State vs Texas Same Game Parlay, from SBR's Phillip Wood:

1) Ohio State Over 30.5 Points (-115)
2) Will Howard 275+ Passing Yards (+165)
3) Quintrevion Wisner 21+ Receiving Yards (-125)
= +500 at DraftKings

OSU TT Over 30.5 (-115)

"The Buckeyes are the sixth-highest-scoring team in the nation, averaging 36.4 points per game. They’ve scored at least 31 points in five of their last six games, and there is no doubt that they’ve put the 10-point performance against the Michigan Wolverines behind them. They’ve scored 83 points in the College Football Playoff thus far, topping 40 in both games.

While the Longhorns’ defense ranks third in the nation in points allowed per game, they’ve struggled against playoff teams. They allowed 31 points to the Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarterfinals, and in their first game, they needed a goal-line stand to prevent the Clemson Tigers from hitting 30."

Howard 275+ pass yds (+165)

"Since his disastrous performance against Michigan, Howard has been phenomenal. He’s thrown for 630 yards in the postseason, topping 310 yards in both games. While the Longhorns rank fourth in pass defense, the Oregon Ducks finished the year ranked 20th, and the Tennessee Volunteers finished 27th, so this isn’t a massive jump in competition.

As good as the Longhorns’ pass defense has been this season, it's struggled in the playoffs. Texas allowed Cade Klubnik to throw for 336 yards and, in its last game, allowed Sam Leavitt to throw for 222.

This is a three-star play instead of four because the Buckeyes could run away with this game. If that’s the case, then Howard may not throw much in the second half.

But he's continued to throw in the Buckeyes’ previous two blowout victories, and at this price, adds a lot of value to the parlay."

Wisner 21+ rec yds (-125)

"Wisner is the Longhorns’ leading rusher, but I worry for him in tonight’s matchup. The Buckeyes have the fourth-ranked rush defense in football, and if they get out to a huge lead, they could take Wisner out of the game completely. After all, they held Oregon running back Jordan James to just 14 yards in the Rose Bowl.

Yet, even if Wisner struggles, the Longhorns will still find a way to get him the ball. He averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl, but he also had four catches for 40 yards. In the SEC Championship, he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry but caught three passes for 15 yards.

When the rushing attack isn’t working, the Longhorns look to get Wisner involved in other ways. And since the rushing attack won’t work tonight, and the Longhorns are expected to be trailing, I expect plenty of designed screens to get Wisner involved."

Tip: Use the OSU vs TEX profit boost available at DraftKings to boost the odds of this SGP!

**Steelers05** · 01-10-25, 07:43 PM

Texas +2 +175. Like them to pull off the upset but will grab the 2 points for only a 35 cent loss.