(NFL) Playoff plays

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-10-25, 05:37 PM

1* Green Bay Packers +5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just playing the #. HFA is trending down.
...Respect to Lafleur. I think he'll figure some things out.
...I like the points. Looking to hang the #.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 11:48 AM

Just playing numbers. And betting Action plays:

1* BUFF -7.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Denver gift-wrapped the 7-seed. You saw the celebration. Broncos have to be phony.

2nd unit on GBay +5.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

1* Wash +3 1.86: 1 to win .86
...I view Mayfield as a "Buy Lo, Sell Hi" QB. Having a good season, so might be time to sell.
...I like Daniels as a Dog. He's ready, and the Bucs are historically bad ATS @Home.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 12:03 PM

1* (Contingency Play for Next Week) - Minn +5 1.91 (@Det): 1 to win .91
...If this matchup materializes, I don't think the fat # is justified.
...These teams went to the wire for the Division and the #1 seed. A little too much over-reaction.

**Shark** · 01-12-25, 01:16 PM

What do you see in GB? You mention home field not mattering as much, I’d argue it’s worth more than normal in Philadelphia.

**Shark** · 01-12-25, 01:17 PM

Did GB even beat a playoff team this year?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Shark

What do you see in GB? You mention home field not mattering as much, I’d argue it’s worth more than normal in Philadelphia.

I'm talking more about the general trend in NFL HFA in recent years. When I was sizing up this game, I viewed the fair number as closer to 3.

In PAST SEASONS I think the HFA was higher. In 2025 teams don't seem as bothered by being on the road. Just my opinion.

**Steelers05** · 01-12-25, 01:27 PM

Good luck Chucky! +5’s/+5.5’s are my favorite spreads to take ML plays in basketball and football, in my experience they cash at a solid rate.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Steelers05

Good luck Chucky! +5’s/+5.5’s are my favorite spreads to take ML plays in basketball and football, in my experience they cash at a solid rate.

Thank You, Steelers. Hoping for the best. You make a very good point. I've watched videos about the +5 line being in no-man's land:
*If it was a tighter matchup, it would be priced at 3.
*If it was viewed as a TD margin, it would be priced at 6 to 7.

The middling price of +5.0 or +5.5 normally leaves the Favorite bettor feeling like they're getting a bargain. It's less than a full TD, so it looks like value.

Everyone has their opinion. I'm actually not a Love fan. I just see them having a good chance of hanging the #.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Just playing numbers. And betting Action plays:

1* BUFF -7.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Denver gift-wrapped the 7-seed. You saw the celebration. Broncos have to be phony.

2nd unit on GBay +5.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

1* Wash +3 1.86: 1 to win .86
...I view Mayfield as a "Buy Lo, Sell Hi" QB. Having a good season, so might be time to sell.
...I like Daniels as a Dog. He's ready, and the Bucs are historically bad ATS @Home.

2nd unit on Wash +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Number got better. I'm looking for a very close game.
...TBAY came thru a pretty bad division. ATL had to swap out their QB, and NO/CAR were quite bad.

**johnnyvegas13** · 01-12-25, 02:05 PM

Chuck I might just make Washington a posted play tonight

**Steelers05** · 01-12-25, 04:04 PM

Nice cash on Buffalo! I had no play but was kind of nice watching Sean Payton get blown out.
I am leaning other way in night game, either no play or Bucs for me. Good luck all!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Steelers05

Nice cash on Buffalo! I had no play but was kind of nice watching Sean Payton get blown out.
I am leaning other way in night game, either no play or Bucs for me. Good luck all!

Thank You. And Good Luck. You could be right, WASH has come a long way from last year.

**johnnyvegas13** · 01-12-25, 04:07 PM

Riding w u on wash

letsgoo chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Riding w u on wash

letsgoo chuck

Thx, Johnny. Wishing us the best.

Steelers makes a good point. WASH has improved by leaps and bounds. It's like they're a different organization from last year.

**Igor_1965** · 01-12-25, 04:21 PM

Taking GB after Eagles score first. Want +7

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Igor_1965

Taking GB after Eagles score first. Want +7

How about DOWN 10? Can only get better from here.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 05:25 PM

OK, this looks bad. I've had my suspicions about Love not being good. This bet is going south fast.

**Igor_1965** · 01-12-25, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

OK, this looks bad. I've had my suspicions about Love not being good. This bet is going south fast.

I'm in at +9 to +13

Yeah it's tough. But everyone's getting hurt. Once LaFleur recalibrates the passing offense at halftime, Eagles will have to adjust too (or concede 200 yards passing in Q3Q4). I think GB outright is not unthinkable. But neither is Eagles 31-13

**actiondan** · 01-12-25, 06:05 PM

i bit on 10.5.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Igor_1965

I'm in at +9 to +13

Yeah it's tough. But everyone's getting hurt. Once LaFleur recalibrates the passing offense at halftime, Eagles will have to adjust too (or concede 200 yards passing in Q3Q4). I think GB outright is not unthinkable. But neither is Eagles 31-13

Good Luck. Eagles down some guys, same w/ GBay.

I can't stand Love. Guy is a light-weight. Lafleur is putting him in good spots, too.

**Steelers05** · 01-12-25, 06:50 PM

I got in at 10.5 in 2Q just to root with but more focused on PGA, have Jaeger. Love and co. need to do something this next drive and have some urgency doing so, good luck.

**Steelers05** · 01-12-25, 07:03 PM

big TD, let's go Pack!!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 07:46 PM

Can they get the Late TD?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-25, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Can they get the Late TD?

No! Holy shit, Love sux. Should have stuck w/ my original opinion on Love.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-13-25, 12:28 PM

(Week) -.36/6
...Small loss. I'll take it, could have been worse.

Short rant on the Packers. Eagles may be better than I thought. I rated the talent as close.
...Love truly sucks. That was my thesis throughout the season. I gave him a look here as Dog.
...Packers looked better in the two Willis starts. They controlled the clock and dominated the ground.
...Analysts actually rate Love as the next in line after Favre/Rodgers. Very lazy narrative.
...Size this guy up against the other Playoff QBs. Except for maybe Nix, Love might rank 14th of 14.
...Love is such a lightweight. He can't even run the QB sneak. Doesn't stretch a defense, he has to be pinpoint to be effective.

(Coll) +.68

Very slim profit for the week:

Ending

145.49

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-13-25, 12:29 PM

ytd: +45.49

...Not many games left. A few pending plays.
...BUF/BALT futures in play. Can't complain, should get Value-for-Money. Guaranteed to have one team in the AFC final, which is what I wanted.

**Vene1616** · 01-13-25, 01:05 PM

Solid take on Love being 14 of 14. However, when/if he gets healthier, could be middle of the pack. Let's not forget Sam fking Darnold is in this group

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-13-25, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by Vene1616

Solid take on Love being 14 of 14. However, when/if he gets healthier, could be middle of the pack. Let's not forget Sam fking Darnold is in this group

Thx for the reply, Vene. That was my take as I watched the game play out.

The BEST qb stresses a defense in multiple ways:
*Dual-threats like Jackson/Allen pressure a defense with the run and pass.
*Bright minds like Brady/Peyton/Brees were incredibly accurate. And they also beat the defense based on preparation which puts them two thoughts ahead of the defense.

Love does nothing for me. Kraft and Jacobs ran their ass off. Love has to be pin-point to be effective.

He does threaten a defense. He made a few good throws. But he also left points on the board by missing several passes that were there to be made.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-17-25, 08:55 PM

2* PHI -5.5 1.80 (vs Rams): 2 to win 1.60
...Think this points to the Eagles. The situational factors line up.
...Travel edge, Rest edge, Inclement Weather edge.
...Rams benefited from the Niners imploding. Feel like the Rams are at least one round too far.
...Line Value looks good. Price looks short, I'll lay it w/ the Eagles here.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-19-25, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* PHI -5.5 1.80 (vs Rams): 2 to win 1.60
...Think this points to the Eagles. The situational factors line up.
...Travel edge, Rest edge, Inclement Weather edge.
...Rams benefited from the Niners imploding. Feel like the Rams are at least one round too far.
...Line Value looks good. Price looks short, I'll lay it w/ the Eagles here.

(Week) +1.60/2
...Eagles win by 6. Not saying I'm smart enuf to buy the hook. Just wound up that way w/ the Missed XPts.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-19-25, 09:55 PM

Ending 147.09

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-19-25, 09:57 PM

ytd = +47.09

...Almost @ the end of the Fiscal Year (Super Bowl).
...Bills SB Future still alive.
...Will credit the NFL futures when it all goes final. Right now, doesn't look good. Down like 6.00, w/ Bills pending.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-25-25, 02:40 PM

2* NFC Final: PHI Eagles -6 1.90 (vs Wash): 2 to win 1.80
...Token play for Championship weekend. WASH is now a darling.
...I spoke with WASH fans the morning b4 LAST WEEK'S game. They knew they were playing w/ House Money.
...Now, it's a bridge too far. Third straight road game, off two upsets and Eagles haven't traveled in weeks.
...Eagles have the far superior defense. Great rookie DBs. Defense matters in championship games.
...Price might not be a steal, but it looks reasonable. They acquired Barkley to dominate this game.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-25-25, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* NFC Final: PHI Eagles -6 1.90 (vs Wash): 2 to win 1.80
...Token play for Championship weekend. WASH is now a darling.
...I spoke with WASH fans the morning b4 LAST WEEK'S game. They knew they were playing w/ House Money.
...Now, it's a bridge too far. Third straight road game, off two upsets and Eagles haven't traveled in weeks.
...Eagles have the far superior defense. Great rookie DBs. Defense matters in championship games.
...Price might not be a steal, but it looks reasonable. They acquired Barkley to dominate this game.

3rd unit on PHI Moneyline 1.35: 1 to win .35
...This spot is even better than I thought. Actually the 4th straight road game for Wash, if you count the game @Dall.
...PHI hasn't traveled since 12/22. So, 35 days @Home.
...Eagles have one loss since 10/1, and it's versus WASH. So, isolated revenge.
...Daniels is a very trendy pick right now. When you're that popular, it comes with a tariff on the price.