Australian Open Odds and Picks

**SBR Andy** · 01-10-25, 01:08 PM

Australian Open Picks, from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Men's Draw

Favorite - Novak Djokovic (+550)

"Sinner is the rightful Australian Open odds favorite. He was the best player on the men's tour for most of last season and ousted Djokovic in the semifinal of the 2024 Australian Open.

Djokovic is receiving the third-shortest odds, which decreased to +550 after the draw. The lengthening is due to his potential quarterfinal match against Carlos Alcaraz, the men's third seed.

The 10-time Australian Open champion (yes, I did say 10) will be highly motivated to win his 11th after exiting the US Open in the third round and losing in the 2024 semifinal Down Under.

The 2024 season marked the first time Djokovic didn't win a major since 2017, again adding fuel to his inner burning fire. He's also well-rested entering the tournament."

Sleeper - Daniil Medvedev (+1600)

"I've been bullish on Alexander Zverev for a few months. However, the German suffered a biceps injury at the United Cup, a warm-up tournament leading into the Australian Open.

I can't back a player who suffers an injury just two weeks before a major, no matter the severity. And biceps injuries can be particularly tricky for tennis players to combat and overcome.

So, I'm switching to a tried and tested member of the elite. Medvedev's +1600 odds provide reason enough to back him Down Under. He's advanced to the final at three of the last four Australian Opens, only to fall at the final hurdle. And his odds barely moved after the draw, shifting from +1500 to +1600.

This could be the year he finally cracks the Australian Open code. At 16/1, I'm willing to take a shot on the consistent Russian."

Women's Draw

Favorite - Aryna Sabalenka (+230)

"Sabalenka is the most dominant force in women's tennis during the leadup to the Australian Open.

The Belarusian is the reigning Australian Open champion after winning Down Under in consecutive years. She's also advanced to at least the semifinal in seven of the last eight Grand Slams.

Oh, and she won the US Open this past year, beating Jessica Pegula in straight sets.

The Australian Open is her favorite event, as it perfectly suits her wildly powerful skill set. Not only is she playing super tennis, but Sabalenka is growing in maturity and confidence with every tournament.

She was my pick prior to the US Open, and I'll be backing her to win in Australia too."

Sleeper - Jasmine Paolini (+6000)

"I had decided to back Jessica Pegula, who ended 2024 in sizzling-hot fashion. However, she withdrew from the Brisbane Open after suffering a knee injury that has plagued her in the past.

Who knows how she'll feel in less than two weeks when proceedings in Melbourne get underway.

As far as long shots go, I'm willing to back Jasmine Paolini. She made it to the final at two majors last season - the French Open and Wimbledon - and advanced to the fourth round in the other two.

She'll struggle against a player like Sabalenka on hard court, but then again, who won't? Her odds at DraftKings decreased substantially after the draw, moving from +3000 to +6000. However, they remained stable at our other best sportsbooks, where she's trading as short as +2800 at BetMGM."

**SBR Andy** · 01-10-25, 01:11 PM

Australian Open betting insights, via BetMGM:

Men’s

Line Movement (opening, current)
• Jannik Sinner (ITA) +275, +115
• Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) +300, +350
• Novak Djokovic (SRB) +150, +550

Highest Ticket %
• Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) 18.0%
• Novak Djokovic (SRB) 16.6%
• Jannik Sinner (ITA) 15.6%

Highest Handle %
• Jannik Sinner (ITA) 61.9%
• Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) 14.6%
• Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8.0%

Women’s
Line Movement (opening, current)
• Iga Swiatek (POL) +350, +450
• Karolina Muchova (CZE) +4000, +2000

Highest Ticket %
• Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 16.2%
• Iga Swiatek (POL) 14.4%
• Karolina Muchova (CZE)13.3%

Highest Handle %
• Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 39.2%
• Karolina Muchova (CZE) 10.2%
• Coco Gauff (USA) 9.5%

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-10-25, 01:44 PM

At risk of being scrutinized, I'll say that SamsInCharge (across the street) has the best Tennis track record that I'm aware of. Up something like +90 units over the L2 seasons.

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
J. Sinner	+110	+115	+120	+125	+120
C. Alcaraz	+350	+370	+350	+350	+350
N. Djokovic	+600	+600	+550	+550	+450
A. Zverev	+1000	+1000	+1000	+1000	+1000
D. Medvedev	+1600	+1600	+1600	+1400	+1400
T. Fritz	+3000	+2700	+2800	+3000	+2800
J. Draper	+6000	+6000	+5000	+8000	+5000
A. De Minaur	+5000	+4200	+5000	+4000	+5000
F. Tiafoe	+10000	+15000	+12500	+7500	+10000
C. Ruud	+10000	+11000	+5000	+8000	+8000

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
A. Sabalenka	+240	+240	+225	+230	+225
I. Swiatek	+500	+500	+450	+450	+400
C. Gauff	+500	+500	+400	+380	+400
E. Rybakina	+1000	+850	+900	+800	+800
Q. Zheng	+1500	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1400
K. Muchova	+3000	+3000	+2000	+2000	+2500
N. Osaka	+4000	+3000	+4000	+3000	+5000
M. Andreeva	+3000	+3200	+2800	+2500	+2200
J. Pegula	+5000	+4500	+4000	+2800	+3300
J. Paolini	+6000	+5000	+3300	+4000	+3300