Texans vs Chiefs Divisional Round Picks

**SBR Andy** · 01-15-25, 04:29 PM

Texans vs Chiefs early betting splits at BetMGM:

**SBR Andy** · 01-17-25, 09:03 AM

Texans vs Chiefs prediction and best bet from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

ATS Pick: Texans +8.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"The Chiefs won by just eight in Week 16 despite Houston employing a questionable game plan.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud didn't play especially well - which was a common theme throughout the season - but his team didn't help matters by more or less abandoning the run. Houston running backs combined for just 15 rushing attempts, while Stroud threw the ball 39 times, despite the fact it was a relatively competitive game throughout.

However, during the Texans' Wild Card Weekend victory, they leaned heavily on Joe Mixon, especially in the second half. Mixon and the Texans wore down a stout Chargers defensive front, as he ran the ball 25 times to Stroud's 33 pass attempts.

Now, Mixon missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury, but unless his ankle snapped in half, he'll be out there and ready for a big workload on Saturday.

If the Texans can slow down the game, it could also help quiet what should be a raucous crowd at Arrowhead.

Eleven of the Chiefs' 14 victories this season were by just one possession. Additionally, they've won just two of their last 10 playoff games by more than one possession.

I don't give the Texans a real chance of winning, but I think they can cover this number."

Best Bet: Joe Mixon anytime TD (+140 FanDuel)

"As I mentioned above, Mixon could enter the weekend with a questionable tag, but I can't imagine him not suiting up.

Not only will Mixon want to avenge his underwhelming performance from Week 16, but he also represents a former member of the infamous "Burrowhead" Cincinnati Bengals team that was robbed by the refs during the 2023 AFC Championship Game.

In the Texans' previous loss to the Chiefs, they made the same mistake many teams do when they play Kansas City: they abandoned the run to try to match quarterback play. I'm not sure why teams are still doing that in 2025, but it's a thing.

I'm hoping DeMeco Ryans learned from that, though, and he balances the rushing and passing attacks more to possess the football for longer stretches and keep his defense fresh for when it has to do battle with Mahomes and Co.

If he's active, Mixon is expected by the data to play a big role in Saturday's game. He's projected for 17.80 rushing attempts and, more importantly for this bet, 0.53 touchdowns.

I'm very happy with the value we're getting with these +140 odds for Mixon to find the end zone. DraftKings has the next-best price at +130 and bet365 has a Mixon TD priced at +125."

**SBR Andy** · 01-17-25, 01:48 PM

Texans vs Chiefs player prop bets from SBR's Mike Spector:

Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+210 FanDuel)

"Worthy did not explode as a pass-catcher like fellow rookies Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers did this season. But he did score nine total touchdowns, and his ramped-up usage down the stretch has me intrigued about his anytime touchdown chances.

Over the final seven games of the regular season, Worthy led all Chiefs receptions (39), receiving yards (392), and touchdowns (three).

This is a three-star play, as Houston is susceptible to big plays in the passing game. The Texans allow the league’s lowest completion rate (58%) but still rank 28th in touchdown rate and have allowed an NFL-high 17 touchdowns outside the red zone.

The best value for this play is found at FanDuel, with Caesars on the low end of the market with +170 anytime touchdown odds."

Joe Mixon Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings)

"This is a perfect opportunity to sell high on Mixon following his 106-rushing yard performance against the Chargers in the wild-card round.

Sixty of Mixon’s 106 yards last week came on the team’s final possession, as he totaled just 46 yards on 15 carries before that. With Houston being an 8.5-point underdog in this matchup, we should not see him running much late while salting away the game.

Mixon had 14 carries for 57 yards in the Week 16 matchup against Kansas City, and the Chiefs are one of the best tackling teams in the league, allowing the second-fewest yards after contact.

This is a four-star play on the boom-or-bust Mixon, who eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times in the final eight games, but was held to 2.4 yards per carry in the other five.

Under backers are getting the best number and price at DraftKings, as the total is as low as 55.5 (with the Under juiced to -115) at some of our other best sports betting apps."

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 DraftKings)

"If any defense is opportunistic enough to force Mahomes into an interception in a playoff game, it’s the Texans.

Houston ranks No. 1 in Defensive Efficiency and fifth in touchdown-to-turnover ratio. It is also coming off a game where it became the fifth team in the Super Bowl era with four or more interceptions, four-plus sacks, and a pick-six in a playoff game.

Mahomes threw double-digit interceptions (11) for the fourth straight season, but those 11 picks came with his fewest number passing attempts in that span.

The Over is juiced as high as -125 at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best price at DraftKings."

**Steelers05** · 01-17-25, 07:35 PM

I like this Texans team for some reason, LOL, not sure why. Took a shot in the dark on a boost at +9000 to win it all. I got to be careful though when going against teams I literally can't stand, Chiefs, Penn St, etc. but will probably play the points and sprinkle a little ML. GL.

**DJK** · 01-18-25, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by Steelers05

I like this Texans team for some reason, LOL, not sure why. Took a shot in the dark on a boost at +9000 to win it all. I got to be careful though when going against teams I literally can't stand, Chiefs, Penn St, etc. but will probably play the points and sprinkle a little ML. GL.

The Texans are the same team that had their asses handed to them by Baltimore in the last year's divisional round.

Wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.

**Headsterx** · 01-18-25, 10:36 AM

Mahomes in his career is undefeated in the divisional rounds and Chiefs are undefeated at home this season. Enough said.

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 11:21 AM

Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay from SBR's Branden Schaeffer:

1) Chiefs -8.5 (-112)
2) Isiah Pacheco Over 41.5 rushing yards (-113)
3) Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 receiving yards (-113)
= +449 at FanDuel (+584 using available 30% profit boost)

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 11:23 AM

Updated betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet player props (tickets)
1. Isiah Pacheco over 42.5 rushing yards (-120)
2. Dalton Schultz over 37.5 receiving yards (-120)
3. Travis Kelce under 5.5 receptions (-105)
4. Travis Kelce over 52.5 receiving yards (-120)
5. Joe Mixon over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
1. Travis Kelce (+150)
2. Nico Collins (+190)
3. Xavier Worthy (+210)
4. John Metchie (+700)
5. Dalton Schultz (+475)

**Headsterx** · 01-18-25, 02:49 PM

Freezing temps @ kickoff... Texans 0-4 in playoffs when playing in freezing temps.

**Headsterx** · 01-18-25, 03:19 PM

Will the Kansas City Chiefs and WR Xavier Worthy continue to be money in the postseason?

The Kansas City Chiefs 1^st round pick has gone Over his receptions and receiving yards props in 7 straight games. For today’s playoff game versus the Houston Texans, Worthy’s reception Total is Over/Under 4.5 catches, and his receiving yards line is set at 50.5 yards.

Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the king of cold weather, going 8-3 ATS in temperatures below 30 degrees. The Arrowhead temperature today should be in the low to mid 20’s.

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 04:08 PM

Best Bet Recap:

Analyst	Pick	Odds
Andrew Brennan	Mixon Anytime TD	+140 FanDuel
Matt Burke	Chiefs -8.5	-110 bet365
Phil Wood	Mahomes Over 247.5 pass yds	-113 FanDuel
Mike Spector	Worthy Anytime TD	+210 FanDuel

Contest Pick Consensus:

Spread/Total	SBR Contest Consensus
Chiefs -8.5	42%
Texans +8.5	58%
Over 41.5	59%
Under 41.5	41%

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 04:12 PM

HOU +10 (130) - 1u
HOU ML +440 - 1/4u
Metchie O 3.5 - 3/4u
Metchie 1st TD +2000 - 1/8u

Go Texans!

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 04:55 PM

First BS call, gotta protect the diva.

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 06:29 PM

Another BS call on the diva.

**str** · 01-18-25, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Steelers05

Another BS call on the diva.

That is a disgrace

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by str

That is a disgrace

That one for sure, he was a runner in that situation. And the only helmet to helmet was Texan on Texan. Bad calls are part of the game but that first one cost them 3 now this one. Texans D playing their heart out, hate these BS calls.

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 06:36 PM

I love Andy Reid but honestly hate this Chiefs team, bunch of little bitches.

**DwightShrute** · 01-18-25, 06:51 PM

bad call on 4th down. They should have punted.

**DJK** · 01-18-25, 07:34 PM

WOW, did the line really close at -9.5?

If so, then this is possibly the WORST BAD BEAT loss on KC bettors who got it at -9.5.

At the same time, INCREDIBLY LUCKY win for the Houston bettors.

Even the TV announcers pointed it out. LMAO

**DJK** · 01-18-25, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by Steelers05

I like this Texans team for some reason, LOL, not sure why. Took a shot in the dark on a boost at +9000 to win it all. I got to be careful though when going against teams I literally can't stand, Chiefs, Penn St, etc. but will probably play the points and sprinkle a little ML. GL.

I hope you got Houston at +9.5 at least.

**Steelers05** · 01-18-25, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by DJK

WOW, did the line really close at -9.5?

If so, then this is possibly the WORST BAD BEAT loss on KC bettors who got it at -9.5.

At the same time, INCREDIBLY LUCKY win for the Houston bettors.

Even the TV announcers pointed it out. LMAO

lol, you serious Gill. Justice served, those bullshit calls that lead to 10 points at least didn’t make the divas cover.

**Ian** · 01-18-25, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by DJK

WOW, did the line really close at -9.5?

If so, then this is possibly the WORST BAD BEAT loss on KC bettors who got it at -9.5.

At the same time, INCREDIBLY LUCKY win for the Houston bettors.

Even the TV announcers pointed it out. LMAO

That's about as crazy a backdoor cover as you can get... The next time I hear someone put down line shopping I'll remember how I snagged KC at -7 1/2 just before kickoff.