Commanders vs Lions Divisional Round Picks

**SBR Andy** · 01-15-25, 04:32 PM

Commanders vs Lions early betting action from BetMGM:

**SBR Andy** · 01-17-25, 11:38 AM

Commanders vs Lions prediction and best bet from SBR's Mike Spector:

ATS Pick: Lions -9 (-120 BetMGM)

"Many are pointing to Detroit’s excessive injuries on defense as the reason it will not reach the Super Bowl. But with how the Lions' offense has played this season, it should be able to overcome an average defensive performance in this game.

Detroit was the highest-scoring team in the regular season and also ranked second in EPA per drive and EPA per play.

But the Lions’ defense didn't look too shabby in a crucial Week 18 win over Minnesota, holding the Vikings to season lows in points (nine), passing yards (142), and first downs (14).

One thing we can likely count on even from an injured Lions defense is resistance in the red zone. At the end of the regular season, the Lions defense allowed a league-low 39% completion percentage in the red zone, and the third-lowest QBR (28).

Prior to Washington’s win at Tampa Bay last week, rookie quarterbacks had lost eight consecutive road playoff games. Even though Jayden Daniels snapped that streak, he is in for a much tougher test against the 15-2 Lions.

Per ESPN Research, the only one of the last five rookies to beat a team with at least a share of the best record in the league was Joe Flacco in 2008.

And since the playoff format changed to 14 teams in 2020-21, only one team seeded sixth or lower made the conference championship.

Teams with a bye entering the divisional round have covered just 44% of the time since 2003. But I am making the Lions a three-star play, as head coach Dan Campbell’s 64.6% ATS percentage (53-29-1) in his NFL career is the best of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 30 games).

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the favorites at -9 instead of -9.5. That is worth paying up slightly for the -120 odds."

Best Bet: Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110 bet365)

"The Lions have had difficulty stopping running quarterbacks all season.

Detroit finished the regular season ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (454), 31st in yards per rush (6.2), and tied for 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed to the position (six).

The Lions turned up the pressure against Darnold and the Vikings in Week 18, blitzing on 56% of dropbacks.

If they employ that strategy against Daniels, that could work out worse for the defense, as Daniels has the third-highest QBR against blitzes, and would give him more reason to escape the pocket and use his legs.

Daniels has run for 66 or more yards in three of the last five games. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at bet365, as the O/U is as high as 56.5 (juice -115 to the Over) at DraftKings."

**SBR Andy** · 01-17-25, 04:57 PM

Commanders vs Lions player prop bets from SBR's Phillip Wood:

Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+130 Caesars)

"After hauling in a touchdown last weekend, McLaurin has now caught at least one touchdown in six of his last seven games. He led the Commanders with 13 touchdowns in the regular season and gets a solid matchup this week.

Though the Lions are allowing just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game this season, they’ve struggled in the back half of the year. They allowed 1.7 passing touchdowns per game over their last three, despite not allowing a single one to Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold in Week 18. And while the Lions played Darnold well, they were aided by Darnold missing some wide-open red-zone throws.

Considering how hot McLaurin has been, it’s surprising to see the price greater than +100. Caesars and FanDuel offer +130, so bet at either of those sportsbooks."

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 rushing yards (-109 Caesars)

"Gibbs doesn’t hit this number only if Montgomery returns and immediately receives his usual workload. But I think Montgomery will be used in a limited fashion this weekend, and Gibbs has proven that he’s more than capable of putting the run game on his back.

Gibbs rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the three games that Montgomery missed. He averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in two of those games, and he’s about to take on a defense that allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry this season.

This prop is set between 81.5 and 84.5. Because I’m so confident in Gibbs this week, I’m taking the best price regardless of the total. Right now, the best price is -109 at Caesars."

Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)

"Daniels hasn’t topped 40 yards in either of his last two games, but he has cleared 65 yards in three of his last five. This season, he’s topped 55 rushing yards in six games, and while the Lions allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing per game, they struggled a bit against mobile quarterbacks.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen ran for 68 yards against them, and Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson managed 61. Richardson’s numbers are a bit inflated since 35 of those yards came on the game's first drive. However, the numbers show that the Lions can give up big plays to quarterbacks who like to run, and Daniels hasn’t been shy about using his legs.

The total is set at either 54.5 or 55.5. Not only is FanDuel one of the sportsbooks offering the lowest total, but it’s also the only one offering a price better than -115."

**darrell74** · 01-18-25, 03:25 AM

Lions roll
I think the game gets away from the Commanders.
I think it's gonna happen in one quarter to where they won't be able to come back from a huge lead.
However, I'm not going too big either.

**DJK** · 01-18-25, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by darrell74

Lions roll
I think the game gets away from the Commanders.
I think it's gonna happen in one quarter to where they won't be able to come back from a huge lead.
However, I'm not going too big either.

The ones you are scared to go BIG are the ones you HAVE to go BIG.

Don't be a chicken.

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 11:27 AM

Commanders vs Lions Same Game Parlay from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

1) Over 55.5 (-110)
2) Jameson Williams Anytime TD (+130)
3) Jared Goff Over 271.5 Pass Yds (-115)
= +445 at FanDuel (+579 with available 30% profit boost)

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 11:29 AM

Updated betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet player props (tickets)
1. Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush over 18.5 yards (-130)
2. Dyami Brown over 33.5 receiving yards (-120)
3. Austin Ekeler over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
4. Jameson Williams over 0.5 rushing yards (-120)
5. Terry McLaurin over 69.5 receiving yards (-115)

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
1. Jameson Williams (+110)
2. Terry McLaurin (+130)
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (-130)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (-350)
5. Sam LaPorta (+145)

**SBR Andy** · 01-18-25, 04:11 PM

Best Bet Recap:

Analyst	Pick	Odds
Matt Burke	Commanders +9.5	-110 DraftKings
Andrew Brennan	LaPorta Anytime TD	+145 DraftKings
Mike Spector	Gibbs 2+ TDs	+230 FanDuel
Phil Wood	Daniels Over 1.5 pass TDs	+105 DraftKings

Contest Pick Consensus:

Spread/Total	SBR Contest Consensus
Lions -8.5	46%
Commanders +8.5	54%
Over 55.5	42%
Under 55.5	58%

**darrell74** · 01-18-25, 10:54 PM

Sure glad I didn't go big

**DwightShrute** · 01-19-25, 04:05 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is the moment the Lions lost this game <a href="https://t.co/0gzXGqvLe3">pic.twitter.com/0gzXGqvLe3</a></p>— Daily MSU (@daily_msu) <a href="https://twitter.com/daily_msu/status/1880826394181300332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >January 19, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**darrell74** · 01-19-25, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by DwightShrute

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is the moment the Lions lost this game <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/0gzXGqvLe3">pic.twitter.com/0gzXGqvLe3</a></p>— Daily MSU (@daily_msu) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/daily_msu/status/1880826394181300332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >January 19, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Honestly, it dud feel the Lions thought this was an easy W, and now they could be on the slow descent of non contender

Second straight year choking in the playoffs. BIG CHOKE JOBS
They might not recover

**Optional** · 01-19-25, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Best Bet Recap:

Analyst	Pick	Odds
Matt Burke	Commanders +9.5	-110 DraftKings
Andrew Brennan	LaPorta Anytime TD	+145 DraftKings
Mike Spector	Gibbs 2+ TDs	+230 FanDuel
Phil Wood	Daniels Over 1.5 pass TDs	+105 DraftKings

Sweep!

**DwightShrute** · 01-19-25, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by darrell74

Honestly, it dud feel the Lions thought this was an easy W, and now they could be on the slow descent of non contender

Second straight year choking in the playoffs. BIG CHOKE JOBS
They might not recover

I don't know if choke is the right word. Even half way in the 4th, I wasn't convinced the Lions were dead. In the end, it wasn't their day. Washington made a handful more big plays and were just better that day.

As a football fan, I feel bad for the Lions and their fans. They really believed this could be their year finally. It's a good story. A shitty team forever and a coach nobody wanted. Who doesn't love a good comeback story?

But so is Washington. New coach and a rookie QB. Who here in September seriously thought the Redskins could be a win away from the super bowl 5 months later? No one. Yet here they are.