Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Picks

**SBR Andy** · 01-21-25, 12:56 PM

Bills vs Chiefs early pick from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Chiefs -1.5 (-108 FanDuel)

"Part of me expects Josh Allen to finally exorcise his Chiefs' demons and exact a morsel of revenge on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Co. The 2025 AFC Championship Game represents the Bills' best chance to do exactly that.

Thanks to Allen and his propensity for an MVP moment, the Bills beat the Chiefs in a 30-21 thriller in the regular season.

However - and this is a blue-whale-sized however - the Chiefs are playing at home, where they are 4-1 in the last four AFC Championships. One of those triumphs came against Allen and his Bills.

It's hard to bet against a team that has provided no reason to do so. They got lucky countless times in the regular season, but luck has nothing to do with their postseason success.

Yes, they were fortunate to receive timely favorable calls against the Houston Texans last week. But overall, the Chiefs rarely choke in the most crucial moments. While the Bills have more than enough to motivate them, so do the Chiefs, who are two wins away from doing something no other team has: winning three straight Super Bowls.

Isiah Pacheco has been largely ineffective since returning from injury but can break out for an explosive game. The Chiefs didn't have his services in Buffalo during the regular season, and he can add an extra layer to the defending champs' offense.

Andy Reid said his team, while banged up, avoided any serious injuries against Houston.

I'm not sure the same thing can be said about the Bills. Starting safety Taylor Rapp, arguably Buffalo's most influential defender, was ruled out against Baltimore because of a hip injury, and cornerback Taron Johnson exited late due to a shoulder problem.

Rapp had an interception against Mahomes the last time the teams met in Week 11. Mahomes also threw a pick to Terrel Bernard in that game. Since then, Mahomes has thrown 12 touchdown passes and no picks.

We'll have to wait and see if they'll be available. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are the healthiest they've been all season. Plus, Mahomes is 16-3 in his postseason career, and his team hasn't turned the ball over in eight consecutive games.

I bet against the Chiefs in Buffalo for last season's divisional-round game, and I won't make the same mistake again, especially not at Arrowhead."

**SBR Andy** · 01-22-25, 09:16 AM

Conference Championship early picks and props from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

ATS Pick: Bills +1.5 (-102 FanDuel)

Player Prop: Kareem Hunt Over 7.5 rushing attempts (-130 bet365)

Anytime TD: Kareem Hunt (+200 DraftKings)

**hawkwind** · 01-22-25, 12:57 PM

OVER

**SBR Andy** · 01-23-25, 03:43 PM

Bills vs Chiefs early betting action at BetMGM:

Most bet player props (tickets)
1. Xavier Worthy over 4.5 receptions (-135)
2. Travis Kelce over 68.5 receiving yards (-125)
3. James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards (-130)

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
1. Josh Allen +100
2. Travis Kelce +130
3. James Cook +140

**actiondan** · 01-23-25, 04:16 PM

bills team total over?

**SBR Andy** · 01-24-25, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by actiondan

bills team total over?

Best price I'm seeing is Over 23.5 (-115) at BetRivers & bet365.

**SBR Andy** · 01-26-25, 11:14 AM

Bills vs Chiefs player prop bets from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+180 DraftKings)

Ty Johnson Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 bet365)

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115 Caesars)

**SBR Andy** · 01-26-25, 11:16 AM

Bills vs Chiefs touchdown scorer picks from SBR's Mike Spector:

Josh Allen anytime TD (-115 FanDuel)

Marquise Brown anytime TD (+250 Caesars)

Either Travis Kelce or James Cook to score the first touchdown (+380 DraftKings)

**SBR Andy** · 01-26-25, 11:17 AM

Bills vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay from SBR's Phillip Wood:

1) Bills moneyline (+105)
2) Dalton Kincaid 40+ receiving yards (+140)
3) Patrick Mahomes Over 255.5 passing yards (-110)
= +700 at DraftKings (odds boost available)

**SBR Andy** · 01-26-25, 11:20 AM

Best Bet Recap:

Analyst	Pick	Odds
Matt Burke	Bills +1.5	-105 FanDuel
Gabe Henderson	K. Hunt anytime TD	+180 DraftKings
Andrew Brennan	K. Shakir anytime TD	+260 DraftKings
Mike Spector	J. Allen Under 0.5 interceptions	-110 BetMGM

Contest Pick Consensus:

Spread/Total	SBR Contest Consensus
Chiefs -2.5	29%
Bills +2.5	71%
Over 48.5	73%
Under 48.5	27%

**SBR Andy** · 01-26-25, 11:22 AM

Updated betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet Chiefs-Bills player props (tickets)
1. Dalton Kincaid over 31.5 receiving yards (-130)
2. Travis Kelce over 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
3. Noah Gray over 14.5 receiving yards (-130)
4. James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards (-140)
5. Josh Allen over 46.5 rushing yards (-115)

Most bet Chiefs-Bills players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
1. Josh Allen -120
2. Travis Kelce +125
3. Xavier Worthy +200
4. James Cook +135
5. Kareem Hunt +180

**brock** · 01-26-25, 11:53 AM

James Cook +135 anytime TD looks good.

**k13** · 01-26-25, 11:54 AM

Bet365 over 0.5 TD for bills is +100 superbet
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