Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[Vene1616]

Maybe a good idea to prepare for these situations by staying liquid and putting at least 100k the other way? I mean 30-35k win (sinner ML) would make you feel a little bit better, no?

[johnnyvegas13]

Maybe a good idea to prepare for these situations by staying liquid and putting at least 100k the other way? I mean 30-35k win (sinner ML) would make you feel a little bit better, no?

He did win 100k on the hedge parlay

[Doug tushyterror]

Great try here Doug

glad u at least got the hedge bet

u on wash and bills today???

Your Bills over Commies thread looking solid JV. I'm usually good in the playoffs but so far I've been buried with LAC, MIN & BALT. Might just sit this 1 out cuz I have no feel on either game today.

[Vene1616]

No reason to even bet that since I would've been at 152k doing nothing & could've at least WD the 100k that I lost the last 2 wks & kept 50k in. Now with 134k I'm gonna try to get it to 200k before WD that 100k. I could easily see myself tilting & losing it all before I get anywhere close to 200k with my current mindset.

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

[johnnyvegas13]

Your Bills over Commies thread looking solid JV. I'm usually good in the playoffs but so far I've been buried with LAC, MIN & BALT. Might just sit this 1 out cuz I have no feel on either game today.

Double dog ml parlay pays about +570

u should go for it w me Doug

I like it

[mjsuax13]

All things considered, without question the worst day of my gambling life cuz of what could've been. Best & last realistic shot I'll ever have at a 7 figure score. Not big on conspiracy theories but FD never offering a cashout & it being this straight forward makes me wonder. The icing on the shit cake was losing another 19k on Z winning a set.

You never know. Hang in there buddy. I can’t imagine how you feel. Have a nice breakfast and keep your head up. You will breakthrough.

[Optional]

I was most looking forward to seeing a copy of the email to the old boss with a screenshot of a million bucks in the bank.

[Doug tushyterror]

You never know. Hang in there buddy. I can’t imagine how you feel. Have a nice breakfast and keep your head up. You will breakthrough.

Thanks mj..deep down I never thought Z was beating Sinner unless he lucked out with another injury ret. This went as far as it was gonna go once Sinner beat Shelton. At least Keys winning allowed that hedge so it wasn't a total wash

[mjsuax13]

Thanks mj..deep down I never thought Z was beating Sinner unless he lucked out with another injury ret. This went as far as it was gonna once Sinner beat Shelton. At least Keys winning allowed that hedge so it wasn't a total wash

“Lucked out”… I think you always need a little luck in life, in betting, etc…. But you did claw some back after a rough run so keep your head up. Calling Keys (who I know jack shit about) is amazing in itself. Not the result we all wanted but like I said earlier in this thread- you are relentless, I admire that and that relentlessness my friend is fuckin dangerous. Especially with some cash to fire. You do well finding spots so do it. Cheers buddy.

[mjsuax13]

I was most looking forward to seeing a copy of the email to the old boss with a screenshot of a million bucks in the bank.

Fuk yes. Even I hate his old boss!

[ThaWoj]

You got 4 months til the french open. Anyone who knows tennis knows that you can get some random ass results on clay. That might be your best shot at hitting a couple prices for the big score.

[veriableodds]

Same with golf futures (us open, masters, ect), and basketball. More options could be faster progress.

[TommieGunshot]

Those were some great bets. Keep making more good bets and you will get that million one day.

[Doug tushyterror]

“Lucked out”… I think you always need a little luck in life, in betting, etc…. But you did claw some back after a rough run so keep your head up. Calling Keys (who I know jack shit about) is amazing in itself. Not the result we all wanted but like I said earlier in this thread- you are relentless, I admire that and that relentlessness my friend is fuckin dangerous. Especially with some cash to fire. You do well finding spots so do it. Cheers buddy.

You got 4 months til the french open. Anyone who knows tennis knows that you can get some random ass results on clay. That might be your best shot at hitting a couple prices for the big score.

Same with golf futures (us open, masters, ect), and basketball. More options could be faster progress.

Those were some great bets. Keep making more good bets and you will get that million one day.

I don't even regret putting Z instead of Sinner with Keys cuz this was the only way to get this kind of payout. If I were to take Sinner instead it would've been with Saba like last yr so despite the result, this was the sharp play going into today. What I didn't anticipate was getting fukked out of a c/o that any other book would've offered. Not gonna pretend like I would've taken it after the fact when I had my sites set on the 1.2M getting this close esp. after the hedge but I should've had the option. Who knows, might've just taken the 250k to 300k not being able resist that amount staring at me in that green cashout button. The only thing I regret is wasting almost 20k on Z to win a set. That was from the jump, not after the fact. Wasn't worth the $8500 payout considering how ruthlessly efficient Sinner is.

[Doug tushyterror]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

This was actually the 2nd time in 8 months I had a reasonable shot at a 7 figure payout & it was more than twice as much just needing the Nuggets to make the Finals with the 1st 5 legs hitting. If they didn't blow the #1 seed to a bad Spurs team sitting all their starters in g81, this could've hit. Thats where the frustration is coming from. Close but no cigar yet again.

[Chi_archie]

don't tilt now

positioning is still good if you wait for the futures/plays to come to you and not force it

good luck

[johnnyvegas13]

We have to incorporate Doug’s picks into the future podcast

u know how many people will b interested in this ???

[pavyracer]

Tough luck on this one but it was a long shot. My advice in the future is don't bet the other junk you bet in the last two weeks. Keep the two parlays for the long shots but also keep betting on them when you can earlier. Focus on these two players you identified and keep riding them. There is no reason to bet the whole tournament every day.

Maybe cash out now and put all on 5% savings until the French Open. Whatever you make in interest use it to make another parlay of longshots until you hit one. Only use your earnings for gambling and keep your capital intact.

[TommieGunshot]

This was actually the 2nd time in 8 months I had a reasonable shot at a 7 figure payout & it was more than twice as much just needing the Nuggets to make the Finals with the 1st 5 legs hitting. If they didn't blow the #1 seed to a bad Spurs team sitting all their starters in g81, this could've hit. Thats where the frustration is coming from. Close but no cigar yet again.

A parlay of n bets will lose by one n times as often as it wins. ie a parlay with 6 bets will go 5-1 six times as often as it goes 6-0.

But if they're good bets that one winner will come and it will make up for all the losses. You will hit one of these eventually.

I like to earn a small 1-2% on singles to cover any living expenses, then at some point there will be good parlay wins to make for a nice week or month.

[Doug tushyterror]

don't tilt now

positioning is still good if you wait for the futures/plays to come to you and not force it

good luck

We have to incorporate Doug’s picks into the future podcast

u know how many people will b interested in this ???

Tough luck on this one but it was a long shot. My advice in the future is don't bet the other junk you bet in the last two weeks. Keep the two parlays for the long shots but also keep betting on them when you can earlier. Focus on these two players you identified and keep riding them. There is no reason to bet the whole tournament every day.

Maybe cash out now and put all on 5% savings until the French Open. Whatever you make in interest use it to make another parlay of longshots until you hit one. Only use your earnings for gambling and keep your capital intact.

A parlay of n bets will lose by one n times as often as it wins. ie a parlay with 6 bets will go 5-1 six times as often as it goes 6-0.

But if they're good bets that one winner will come and it will make up for all the losses. You will hit one of these eventually.

I like to earn a small 1-2% on singles to cover any living expenses, then at some point there will be good parlay wins to make for a nice week or month.

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.

[ThaWoj]

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.

I saw he made a deuce right after you placed the bet. Then they subbed him out. Looks like you still have a whole qtr left and it's a close game sooo.....

Edit meant to say he made a deuce after the time on the ticket

[ThaWoj]

Nice hit. He might have went the whole qtr scoreless which woulda been an ultra bad beat but that play with 6 minutes left where they got the offensive board like 4 times and he made the 3 ball on the last offensive board saved you

[Doug tushyterror]

Nice hit. He might have went the whole qtr scoreless which woulda been an ultra bad beat but that play with 6 minutes left where they got the offensive board like 4 times and he made the 3 ball on the last offensive board saved you

Relatively stress-free. Passed the time watching POI on Prime but you never know with these bets. Main concern is pulling the starters in a blowout besides the injury risk.
*short term goal is 200k to WD the 100k in losses

[ThaWoj]

Relatively stress-free. Passed the time watching POI on Prime but you never know with these bets. Main concern is pulling the starters in a blowout besides the injury risk.
*short term goal is 200k to WD the 100k in losses

I'm trying to turn a $25 bonus bet I was given into $250 all I need is Kincaid 12 more yards and buffalo +8.5 but he barely played the 2nd half so its most likely dead. Would at least give me money for groceries, gas and keep my phone turned on.

[mjsuax13]

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.

I’m surprised they let you make these!

[ThaTopMoron]

Doug is awesome with his futures bets at tennis majors

now, he's got to push the pedal down and put at least 20k on KC -1.5

then, if it's the eagles v chiefs, be patient and put another 20 on KC in the SB

Doug did you follow?

[TommieGunshot]

I’m surprised they let you make these!

Any account that takes +$30k on player props could be worth $1.2 million.

[Doug tushyterror]

Doug did you follow?

Wish I would’ve TTM but laid off. Only 3 playoff bets so far with 2 parlay killers

[Doug tushyterror]

I'm trying to turn a $25 bonus bet I was given into $250 all I need is Kincaid 12 more yards and buffalo +8.5 but he barely played the 2nd half so its most likely dead. Would at least give me money for groceries, gas and keep my phone turned on.

Damn man, would've had it with that 4th down drop. Now you know how I felt with Andrews costing me a 79k payout even though Kincaid's drop wasn't nearly as bad

[Doug tushyterror]

I’m surprised they let you make these!

Just a matter of time before I'm limited like I was at DK this month after the Fritz win.

[2Sweeet]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

[2Sweeet]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

Wow, this is the best advice I ever read on this forum and I've been here way longer than 2022. This is sound advice Dougie. Don't piss it away it's a marathon not a sprint bro. There will be other shots.

[Doug tushyterror]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

Thanks 2S but even risking 34k on a player prop is spiral territory considering all the variables that could go wrong. This was pretty much a one off trying to get those "Z win 1 set" losses back. I've vowed to lay off player props considering how tempting they are but it's 1 bad beat away from tilting.

[MalikHusam]

Thanks 2S but even risking 34k on a player prop is spiral territory considering all the variables that could go wrong. This was pretty much a one off trying to get those "Z win 1 set" losses back. I've vowed to lay off player props considering how tempting they are but it's 1 bad beat away from tilting.

If they let you risk 30k a pop, you should really take up long distance running and prepare for Boston marathon. Or get super fit. Or do stunts like Tom Cruise. Just for the hell of it. You can afford it. Just find something outside the house, the more physically active and dangerous, the better. Bungee jump. Parachute jump. Cliff hang.

Get out, let adrenaline flow with 0 thought of money and betting.

You can continue to bet every day - but hundreds, not thousands - to stay sharp. And only really BET once or twice a month. If you feel like you'll get cut off UNLESS you bet like a true degen every day, you'll lose your stack. You can't win a mil on your schedule. You've done everything right so far, except get super lucky.

Just get enough shots in, like 2sweet says, and avoid blowing your roll on shitty bets that even johnyvegas knows are -EV

[str]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

Man it is nice to see this in here. Really sound thinking.

Multiple posters in here should print this out and read it as often as possible.