Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

**Easy-Rider 66** · 01-24-25, 02:35 PM

GL Douglas. stay safe

**mjsuax13** · 01-24-25, 03:03 PM

Get em! Probably will end up offering something for a cashout.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

GL Douglas. stay safe

Originally posted by mjsuax13

Get em! Probably will end up offering something for a cashout.

Thanks fellas. Nothing so far, you'd think at least 50k despite needing 2 somewhat doable outcomes. If Keys wins, it should be in the 300k range since that's only 25% of 1.2M with Sinner in the -300 range. These were the cashouts before Keys beat Iga (beyond atrocious) & have been suspended ever since.

**mjsuax13** · 01-24-25, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by Doug tushyterror

Thanks fellas. Nothing so far, you'd think at least 50k despite needing 2 somewhat doable outcomes. If Keys wins, it should be in the 300k range since that's only 25% of 1.2M with Sinner in the -300 range. These were the cashouts before Keys beat Iga (beyond atrocious) & have been suspended ever since.

They should want to get out now! Maybe not. I don’t know enough about cashout odds. $100k would be nice. Tennis feels very unpredictable to me but I also don’t bet it or follow it. If it hits- invest and don’t look back.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

They should want to get out now! Maybe not. I don’t know enough about cashout odds. $100k would be nice. Tennis feels very unpredictable to me but I also don’t bet it or follow it. If it hits- invest and don’t look back.

Might as well discuss the plan if by some cosmic miracle this hits since the fantasy still has hope. Assuming I do nothing but wait on these outcomes, my balance would be $1,242,713. I'd leave exactly 100k in & WD the rest. 1M would go in to either a Vanguard or Fidelity S&P 500 ETF which returns over 13% on avg over 5 yrs. I'd put the rest in my HYSA to get it to 250k. Just imagine, needing just 2 more doable outcomes to legit be set for life.
1)1M as a nest egg
2)250k in a HYSA to cover moving/living expenses
3)100k to bet with & if & when I lose that, I'd legit never reload again.

**mjsuax13** · 01-24-25, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Doug tushyterror

Might as well discuss the plan if by some cosmic miracle this hits since the fantasy still has hope. Assuming I do nothing but wait on these outcomes, my balance would be $1,242,713. I'd leave exactly 100k in & WD the rest. 1M would go in to either a Vanguard or Fidelity S&P 500 ETF which returns over 13% on avg over 5 yrs. I'd put the rest in my HYSA to get it to 250k. Just imagine, needing just 2 more doable outcomes to legit be set for life.
1)1M as a nest egg
2)250k in a HYSA to cover moving/living expenses
3)100k to bet with & if & when I lose that, I'd legit never reload again.

You’d need to talk to an accountant/tax person.
My recommendation would be that along with- keeping as much money in nest egg/HYSA after you secure your place to live. $100k bankroll keeps you doing what you enjoy. I like keeping the investment strategy simple as well. I have a business, homes, stocks, savings, etc… and the investment I take the most comfort in is my professionally managed fidelity GO account. It provides returns and is less volatile.

**ARCHIVADO98** · 01-24-25, 03:41 PM

300k is what you may see after Keys wins match and Zverev is up a break in the first

**2Sweeet** · 01-24-25, 03:45 PM

So tell us ahead of time how you are hedging.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

You’d need to talk to an accountant/tax person.
My recommendation would be that along with- keeping as much money in nest egg/HYSA after you secure your place to live. $100k bankroll keeps you doing what you enjoy. I like keeping the investment strategy simple as well. I have a business, homes, stocks, savings, etc… and the investment I take the most comfort in is my professionally managed fidelity GO account. It provides returns and is less volatile.

Solid advice as always mj but I hate even fantasizing about this considering it's still a longshot. I just contacted support raising the cashout issue & they said they'll contact me with an answer.

**mjsuax13** · 01-24-25, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by Doug tushyterror

Solid advice as always mj but I hate even fantasizing about this considering it's still a longshot. I just contacted support raising the cashout issue & they said they'll contact me with an answer.

Totally agree buddy. One step at a time. As always- I’ll be cheering for you. Let us know what they say.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by 2Sweeet

So tell us ahead of time how you are hedging.

I contacted support to see if they're gonna offer a cashout & they said they'd get back to me but rn I'm not seeing any viable option to hedge unless Keys wins & then it's barely worth it. Without a cashout these are my shitty options:
1)I could move 50k out ASAP but would have to do the other 50k the next day which might not even hit my account till Sunday since the full 104k takes 2 to 4 days.
2) Basically, you're taking about 50k +46k (if Keys wins) so 96k at -295 to win $32,560 if Sinner wins. That's only if I reload the 50k rn & it hits my account in time. My only viable option is Keys winning & being offered a cashout cuz everything I just laid out isn't doable.

**2Sweeet** · 01-24-25, 04:51 PM

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

**mjsuax13** · 01-24-25, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by 2Sweeet

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

That’s true. If I’m ever in a hedge situation they max it out low on the hedge to end up with jack shit compared to the win.

**johnnyvegas13** · 01-24-25, 05:05 PM

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

**Easy-Rider 66** · 01-24-25, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

LOL

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

Thanks JV
That's more than doable

**2Sweeet** · 01-24-25, 05:15 PM

If I knew Dougie better I would help him out if needed.. I have a lot of btc U could hedge offshore for sure. It be a shame not to make something off of this.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by 2Sweeet

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

22.8k doesn't even get back 17k & this isn't even remotely safe if it's a split.

**2Sweeet** · 01-24-25, 05:19 PM

They will only give me $5,700 on that parlay. I understand that a split kills you. I'd hedge something first match though for something. Then if Sabelenka loses you are in the Drivers seat if she wins u make something at least.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by 2Sweeet

If I knew Dougie better I would help him out if needed.. I have a lot of btc U could hedge offshore for sure. It be a shame not to make something off of this.

For some reason I think it goes 1 of 2 ways. Either Saba/Sinner repeat or Keys/Z win their 1st Slam. That's why I'm more than willing to let this ride if Keys wins tmrw. Also why I desperately wanted Shelton to pull the upset cuz I could've just risked my available 46k on him to get back over 100k & let the 1.2M ride.

**2Sweeet** · 01-24-25, 05:25 PM

She loses you have a ton of equity. The problem is how much money you have on hand and how much you can get down at -places.

**pavyracer** · 01-24-25, 05:29 PM

Let it ride. When will you ever get a chance in your life to win 1.2 million dollars?

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Let it ride. When will you ever get a chance in your life to win 1.2 million dollars?

I can't imagine ever having a better chance than this. Came relatively close to hitting for more than double that last yr if DEN would've made the Finals but losing out on the #1 seed sealed their fate.

**trobin31** · 01-24-25, 06:32 PM

Assuming they aren’t giving you an early out cause they think Sabalenka is a lock ?

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Assuming they aren’t giving you an early out cause they think Sabalenka is a lock ?

Could be a it but you would think this would be algorithm based instead of emotion based. Doesn’t seem like good business strategy on their end taking a position like that.

**KnuckleHeadz** · 01-24-25, 09:21 PM

Rooting for you Doug!
Always entertaining reading your threads and what you’ve done with some of these parlays/bets is amazing.
Not sure if it was bad luck, misfortune or just underachieved but a flashlight 🔦 cop is way beneath you!

Good luck Brotha!

**Steelers05** · 01-24-25, 09:30 PM

Good Luck!! Those are some insane tickets, hope you get there.

I think this is Keys tourney. I couldn’t imagine having that much riding on her because she drives me crazy when I only have a couple units on her in the past. She’s an up and down player but the one on the other side is a head case at times so if Keys can frustrate her, like Keys chances.

**ThaWoj** · 01-24-25, 09:38 PM

Still got me on that 40k bailout Tom?
Lol shoot I'd be happy with 4k

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by KnuckleHeadz

Rooting for you Doug!
Always entertaining reading your threads and what you’ve done with some of these parlays/bets is amazing.
Not sure if it was bad luck, misfortune or just underachieved but a flashlight �� cop is way beneath you!

Good luck Brotha!

Originally posted by Steelers05

Good Luck!! Those are some insane tickets, hope you get there.

I think this is Keys tourney. I couldn’t imagine having that much riding on her because she drives me crazy when I only have a couple units on her in the past. She’s an up and down player but the one on the other side is a head case at times so if Keys can frustrate her, like Keys chances.

Thanks fellas!
I finally ended up here after Gauff shit the bed

Then I was gonna take Badosa since she was already in the SFs while Keys still had to beat Svit. Begrudgingly took Keys instead based on the price.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

Still got me on that 40k bailout Tom?
Lol shoot I'd be happy with 4k

4k sounds reasonable Woj. I meant what I said about that 40k initially only cuz I knew hitting Powerball was more likely than either 1 of those with Andreeva. This on the other hand has about a 9% chance based on the current price.

**ThaWoj** · 01-24-25, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Doug tushyterror

4k sounds reasonable Woj. I meant what I said about that 40k initially only cuz I knew hitting Powerball was more likely than either 1 of those with Andreeva. This on the other hand has about a 9% chance based on the current price.

I appreciate it man. I watched the keys/Svit match. Keys was on top of everything. You can say svitolina was making a lot of errors but some of those balls were unhittable. The placement was sick too. I never seen an opponent just stop so many times like elina did when she knew there was no chance getting to the ball. Keys has power that can match up with sab and I would like to think keys is a live dog...I would have put Sab around -400

I hate Sinner so I haven't watched any of his matches.

Honestly Zverev wasnt beating fritz in that u.s. open match but he easily would have beaten tiafoe and that would have setup a final with sinner that would have made this final a little more interesting.

This is hittable. I really think Keys has a shot. Sinner just never seems to lose so that will be tough.

You gonna watch or you gonna peel the bandaid and check the final score?

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

I appreciate it man. I watched the keys/Svit match. Keys was on top of everything. You can say svitolina was making a lot of errors but some of those balls were unhittable. The placement was sick too. I never seen an opponent just stop so many times like elina did when she knew there was no chance getting to the ball. Keys has power that can match up with sab and I would like to think keys is a live dog...I would have put Sab around -400

I hate Sinner so I haven't watched any of his matches.

Honestly Zverev wasnt beating fritz in that u.s. open match but he easily would have beaten tiafoe and that would have setup a final with sinner that would have made this final a little more interesting.

This is hittable. I really think Keys has a shot. Sinner just never seems to lose so that will be tough.

You gonna watch or you gonna peel the bandaid and check the final score?

No chance am I watching the Keys match since I'm not planning on live betting. Same way I got all the results since the Svitolina match. Just clicking the favs. tab 3 to 4 hrs after the start time.

**Doug tushyterror** · 01-24-25, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

I appreciate it man. I watched the keys/Svit match. Keys was on top of everything. You can say svitolina was making a lot of errors but some of those balls were unhittable. The placement was sick too. I never seen an opponent just stop so many times like elina did when she knew there was no chance getting to the ball. Keys has power that can match up with sab and I would like to think keys is a live dog...I would have put Sab around -400

I hate Sinner so I haven't watched any of his matches.

Honestly Zverev wasnt beating fritz in that u.s. open match but he easily would have beaten tiafoe and that would have setup a final with sinner that would have made this final a little more interesting.

This is hittable. I really think Keys has a shot. Sinner just never seems to lose so that will be tough.

You gonna watch or you gonna peel the bandaid and check the final score?

Don't even get me started on Tiafraud. Trusted this cokksucker way too much in a match he should've won up 2 sets to 1 with 10 BPs in s4 that he couldn't convert. Then the Ravens fukked me out of a 79k payout. It's been a brutal wk to say the least.

**unlearn** · 01-25-25, 12:07 AM

Pulling for horseface and man bun for you even though I have a Sinnerlenka future parlay myself for a cunthair of what you stand to win