4 Nations Face-Off Picks and Predictions

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  • Headsterx
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-03-16
    • 22390

    #36
    USA needs to get this lead goal.
    Comment
    • Headsterx
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-03-16
      • 22390

      #37
      Got the lead and now all we need is…

      DEFENSE!!!
      Comment
      • batt33
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 12-23-16
        • 5978

        #38
        Nice!
        Comment
        • coop-dog
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-11-20
          • 944

          #39
          Usa has better defence and goalie this is first time canada sucked in 15 years
          Comment
          • actiondan
            SBR MVP
            • 10-16-10
            • 3398

            #40
            we’re so back
            Comment
            • coop-dog
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-11-20
              • 944

              #41
              I think the future is bright for usa hockey canada on the decline
              Comment
              • mjsuax13
                Moderator
                • 03-14-15
                • 24809

                #42
                I love the Tkachuck brothers. I can’t imagine how much shit they busted up and broke in their house as a kids. Tough penetrates. Great hockey family.
                Comment
                • lakerboy
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 04-02-09
                  • 94365

                  #43
                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                  USA wins then Canada wins final. USA will peak fast
                  Well we are here now.
                  Comment
                  • 2Sweeet
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-31-22
                    • 1123

                    #44
                    I'll bet tonight's game got a higher rating then the Stanley Cup Finals. Say what you want Hockey stepped up here and made a great decision to do this. If anyone was watching the BS NBA product tonight they are slow or a retard. NHL should of did this tomorrow against the NBA. Lets all watch the over paid pussies who won't even enter a 3 point contest or Dunk contest. The NBA is dying a slow death but it's real they better wake up real soon.
                    Comment
                    • MOBIL19
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-31-20
                      • 1011

                      #45
                      What was the in-play price on U.S. ML just before we equalized?

                      Did anyone see +180? +200?
                      Comment
                      • ByeShea
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 06-30-08
                        • 8038

                        #46
                        Originally posted by 2Sweeet
                        I'll bet tonight's game got a higher rating then the Stanley Cup Finals.
                        Big time.

                        I went to a Four Nations party ... knew most of the people there - a handful of dedicated hockey fans, a few more casual fans but majority not particularly hockey fans at all. Everyone, ladies included, were into it. I personally far prefer it to Olympic hockey.
                        Comment
                        • k13
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-16-10
                          • 18053

                          #47
                          Canada has crap goalies.
                          Comment
                          • Headsterx
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-03-16
                            • 22390

                            #48
                            Originally posted by k13
                            Canada has crap goalies.
                            I’ll laugh if Canada loses to Finland tomorrow. USA may not even play hard tomorrow against Sweden.USA v. Finland in final. 🤣
                            Comment
                            • SBR Andy
                              Administrator
                              • 02-09-22
                              • 3178

                              #49
                              Monday, February 17th at 1:00 PM ET - Canada vs Finland (CAN -400 | O/U 5.5)

                              Where: TD Garden (Boston, MA)

                              How to Watch: TNT/Sportsnet


                              Picks and Predictions
                              :


                              Canada -1.5 (-140)

                              "I don't love the -140 odds for Canada to record a multi-goal win. However, it's the only wager that backs Canada with enough value. Monday's contest in Boston represents an ideal rebound opportunity for Canada, which will be hellbent on getting one more shot at Team USA.

                              However, I don't think this game will get out of hand. Finland showed its quality against Sweden, and knowing a regulation win against Canada would get them through to the final will be galvanizing.

                              But Canada possesses too much quality for this Finnish team to contend with, no matter the scenario.

                              Kevin Lankinen proved his mettle against Sweden despite finishing with -.99 goals saved above expected. He'll invariably get the nod for the Finns.

                              The looming question is whether Team Canada head coach Jon Cooper sticks with Jordan Binnington or twists, starting Adin Hill or Samuel Montembeault. While Binnington hasn't been woeful by any stretch, he allowed a weak five-hole goal against both the Swedes and Team USA. Making those saves is imperative, especially at this level with little separating each team.

                              Connor Hellebuyck did so on Saturday, and the result reflected as much.

                              Hellebuyck didn't steal the game against Canada. But he outplayed Binnington, which was the primary difference between the teams. Hellebuyck finished the game with 2.79 goals saved above expected, while Binnington registered -.54. It's the second time in as many outings that Binnington finished with a negative goals saved above expected.

                              With that in mind, I'd be surprised to see Cooper return to Binnington, and starting Hill makes sense now. Even if the Vegas Golden Knights goaltender doesn't stand on his head, Canada should be able to do enough to prevail against an outmatched Finnish team.

                              Cooper can then decide whether to go back to Binnington for the final. And if Hill enjoys a solid outing, Cooper can return to him on Thursday. Canada's head coach must take his lead from Finland bench boss Antti Pennanen, who replaced Juuse Saros with Lankinen."


                              Under 6.5 goals (-140)

                              I can't foresee the Canadians allowing more than two goals against a Finnish team that's mustered 5.01 expected goals in two games. Canada, contrastingly, has created 7.01 expected goals without looking overly dangerous.

                              I expect a 4-1 win for Canada, setting up a gold-medal game between the pre-tournament odds favorites."


                              Player Prop Picks:

                              Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (+150)

                              "It's the type of pressure cooker tailor-made for McDavid. He's playing against a slower, less mobile Finnish defense.

                              The Edmonton Oilers captain and Hart Trophy odds contender should be able to find more space than he did against the Americans by utilizing his speed in the neutral zone.

                              Yes, he'll have Aleksander Barkov draped all over him like a stage-five clinger, but McDavid enjoyed success against the shut-down centerman in Games 3 through 5 of last year's Stanley Cup Final, scoring 10 points. Plus, Barkov doesn't have the surrounding depth — particularly on the blueline — he does in Florida.

                              McDavid thrives in do-or-die situations.

                              He's a big-game player, not only lifting his level in such scenarios but taking the entire contest by the scruff of its neck. While rugged, tireless, and ultra-competitive, the Finnish defense won't have what it takes to keep the world's best player under wraps."


                              Mark Stone Over 1.5 shots (-135)

                              "I'm counting on Stone to continue playing alongside Sidney Crosby and MacKinnon. He has six shots in the first two games — three in each — benefitting from playing with two of the best passers. Stone has a knack for finding a soft spot in coverage, providing the opportunity to let loose. He's not a highly productive shooter by any means, but the lower total sways the pendulum.

                              He hit the Over in five of the last six games with the Vegas Golden Knights before the start of the tournament, making it seven of the last eight in all competitions."


                              Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal (+130)

                              "It's time for MacKinnon to show his best stuff 5-on-5. While we've seen it on the power play and during 3-on-3 overtime, he's struggled to find his groove at full strength.

                              As an aside, I'm all over the Crosby assist prop pick, but the -135 odds compel me to feature this higher-value, albeit less probable, selection.

                              At full flight, MacKinnon can cause the Finnish defense recurring nightmares. And like McDavid, he usually saves his best for must-win situations."

                              - Gary Pearson
                              Comment
                              • k13
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-16-10
                                • 18053

                                #50
                                Mcdavid is not a big game player.
                                Comment
                                • SBR Andy
                                  Administrator
                                  • 02-09-22
                                  • 3178

                                  #51
                                  Monday, February 17th at 8:00 PM ET - Sweden vs USA (USA -235 | O/U 5.5)

                                  Where: TD Garden (Boston, MA)

                                  How to Watch: TNT/Sportsnet


                                  Picks and Predictions:

                                  USA 3-way ML (-160)

                                  "It's another time when I don't love the odds, but here we are again. With a spot in Thursday's final already secured after an exhilarating, emotion-fueled contest, this isn't the ideal scenario for the 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorites.

                                  There's the distinct chance of a letdown for the Americans. However, the situation is desperate for Sweden, a team that must win in regulation to get any chance of making the final.

                                  While that level of desperation can propel the Three Crowns, it can also force their hand too much.

                                  For that reason, there's a higher likelihood of Team USA finishing off the Swedes in regulation.

                                  If the game is tied down the stretch, expect Sweden head coach Sam Hallam to pull his goaltender. An overtime win will not suffice, so the Swedes will go out with guns blazing.

                                  The Americans have been superb defensively in front of the indomitable Connor Hellebuyck. That combination should be enough for them to win a third straight, even if Matthew Tkachuk doesn't play, which is probable given the circumstances."


                                  Over 5.5 goals (-120)

                                  "I'm backing the Over due to the circumstances.

                                  There's a higher likelihood of goals given Sweden's win-or-go-home situation. It should be a close game, and the Swedes will pour it on in the third if the contest is tied or they're down by a goal. That will provide an ideal opportunity for Team USA to counter and score on the break.

                                  Unless Sweden is ahead down the stretch, I'm envisioning the opportunity for at least one empty-net goal for the hosts, if not more."


                                  Player Prop Picks:

                                  Jake Guentzel 3+ shots (+120)

                                  "Guentzel enters Monday's final day of round-robin play as the tournament's leading goal-scorer. Two of his three goals came against mentor and former teammate Crosby's Canada. While drawn to his +240 odds to light the lamp, I'm focusing on his shot production against the Three Crowns.

                                  Guentzel had four shots against the Finns in the opener, followed by a five-shot performance against Canada.

                                  Both performances were as impressive as they were productive, but I'm more floored by his ability to find enough space against Canada's elite defense to rack up five shots and nine attempts.

                                  Only injured teammate Matthew Tkachuk has more shots (11). He's one of the reasons I foresee the Americans making it three wins in a row, which I covered in our Sweden vs. USA prediction."


                                  Adrian Kempe 3+ shots (-104)

                                  "Kempe picked up where he left off with the Los Angeles Kings. Kempe had at least four shots on goal in nine of his 10 games prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off. He averaged 4.3 shots per game in that stint. In his two 4 Nations Face-Off contests, Kempe has eight shots on goal.

                                  Five of those came against Canada in the opener. Like Guentzel, Kempe attempted nine shots against Canada. Overall, Kempe registered at least four shots in 11 of his last 12 tilts. FanDuel's -104 odds represent a bargain our other best sportsbooks couldn't compete with."


                                  Brady Tkachuk anytime goal (+280)

                                  "Referred to as a menace by some and a certified psychopath by others, the younger Tkachuk has been dynamite thus far.

                                  Always playing on the edge, Tkachuk often more closely resembles the angriest version of the Hulk than an all-star American hockey player. Maybe he does moonlight as the Hulk to prevent him from consistently morphing when the game is on.

                                  That didn't stop him from transitioning into beast mode against the Canadians, where he picked a fight with Sam Bennett. He'll be without his older brother for Monday's contest, but that shouldn't stop him from putting on another show. It might even motivate him more. Tkachuk scored two goals in the opener against Finland and has eight shots on goal.

                                  I expect him to be at his disruptive and pugnacious best against the Swedes, which could include his third goal."

                                  - Gary Pearson
                                  Comment
                                  • SBR Andy
                                    Administrator
                                    • 02-09-22
                                    • 3178

                                    #52
                                    4 Nations Face-Off betting insights from BetMGM:


                                    Monday's games:




                                    To win the Tournament:

                                    Comment
                                    • Headsterx
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-03-16
                                      • 22390

                                      #53
                                      I would not bet on USA/Sweden until Canada/Finland game is finished.
                                      Comment
                                      • Headsterx
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-03-16
                                        • 22390

                                        #54
                                        Take Finland +1.5 (+135) as Canada should win but will play tight and stiff.
                                        Comment
                                        • Headsterx
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-03-16
                                          • 22390

                                          #55
                                          Sweden is out and USA is in so this game is completely meaningless. So basically you’re betting on if one of them thinks it’s worthwhile to win this game. 🤣
                                          Comment
                                          • lakerboy
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 04-02-09
                                            • 94365

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by k13
                                            Mcdavid is not a big game player.
                                            We will see about that on Thursday. I find it interesting that his odds to win the MVP started at+1100 this morning at DK but they quickly went to+160 after he opened the scoring.

                                            FanDuel was at +500 this morning.
                                            Comment
                                            • Mike Huntertz
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-19-09
                                              • 11203

                                              #57
                                              Take away the theatre that the orange turd has started, still the US/Canada game was a classic.
                                              High emotion game played by some of the greatest skilled players in the world.
                                              I'm looking forward to another great battle.
                                              I was leaning Canada but this one is being played in the US and as mentioned before, huge edge in net for the Americans.
                                              I'll be on over if it's 6.
                                              Taking over in the game tonight. Nothing game so let's score! 6.5 Over
                                              Comment
                                              • SomeDayinBuffalo
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-12-11
                                                • 1446

                                                #58
                                                I'm going with USA o3.5 I see them getting three with an open net.
                                                Comment
                                                • k13
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-16-10
                                                  • 18053

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                  We will see about that on Thursday. I find it interesting that his odds to win the MVP started at+1100 this morning at DK but they quickly went to+160 after he opened the scoring.

                                                  FanDuel was at +500 this morning.
                                                  Last I saw he was around +400 at bet365.
                                                  I have some some futures on Canada so unless I hedge they are losing.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Headsterx
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-03-16
                                                    • 22390

                                                    #60
                                                    Never mind🤣
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DwightShrute
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-17-09
                                                      • 102344

                                                      #61
                                                      Canada
                                                      VS


                                                      each are -110 at Draftkings
                                                      Canada -116 USA +100 at BM
                                                      Canada -107 USA -105 at Betonline

                                                      Saw Canada +103 not long ago.



                                                      USA
                                                      Comment
                                                      • slewfan
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-01-15
                                                        • 15750

                                                        #62
                                                        Hit McPussy hard and early and he will be gone for the rest of the game.

                                                        Since when is Bennington a bad goalie. He’s further proof Canada suks in big games. Maybe if they put their all-star team in the finals for the cup, they might have a chance.

                                                        Booing a nations national anthem only show the losing spirit and lack of class of that country booing.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 2Sweeet
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-31-22
                                                          • 1123

                                                          #63
                                                          Last edited by 2Sweeet; 02-18-25, 12:56 AM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • DwightShrute
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-17-09
                                                            • 102344

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by slewfan
                                                            Hit McPussy hard and early and he will be gone for the rest of the game.

                                                            Since when is Bennington a bad goalie. He’s further proof Canada suks in big games. Maybe if they put their all-star team in the finals for the cup, they might have a chance.

                                                            Booing a nations national anthem only show the losing spirit and lack of class of that country booing.
                                                            oh stop with the booing thing. No one liked it. Most of my liberal Canadian friends were embarrassed when they booed the American anthem. There are idiots everywhere. Don't forget, Americans booed their own National Anthem not long ago. You had players and coaches kneel during it just because some moron qb did and the MSM poured gasoline on it.

                                                            Also, the big game as you call it, hasn't happened yet. Thursday. We know who is gonna win then.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • slewfan
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-01-15
                                                              • 15750

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by DwightShrute
                                                              oh stop with the booing thing. No one liked it. Most of my liberal Canadian friends were embarrassed when they booed the American anthem. There are idiots everywhere. Don't forget, Americans booed their own National Anthem not long ago. You had players and coaches kneel during it just because some moron qb did and the MSM poured gasoline on it.

                                                              Also, the big game as you call it, hasn't happened yet. Thursday. We know who is gonna win then.
                                                              it will be more difficult for the USA to beat Canada a second time. In any event, I’d like to see a hard hitting game with very little if any referee interference or bias.

                                                              As far as the kneeling went. It had a totally opposite affect than what the detractors tried to subjugate. Created a whole new generation of patriots and lost many fans during the foolish episodes.

                                                              I root for U.S. but it will not truly matter. I will not have a bet on the game. Matters very little what a group of morons do in expressing their displeasure with their own insecurities.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • SBR Andy
                                                                Administrator
                                                                • 02-09-22
                                                                • 3178

                                                                #66
                                                                Updated MVP odds going into the final, via FanDuel:

                                                                Player Odds
                                                                Connor Hellebuyck +260
                                                                Connor McDavid +280
                                                                Sidney Crosby +600
                                                                Nathan MacKinnon +650
                                                                Jake Guentzel +750
                                                                Brady Tkachuk +1500
                                                                Matthew Tkachuk +1800
                                                                Jack Eichel +4000
                                                                Zach Werenski +4500
                                                                Comment
                                                                • SBR Andy
                                                                  Administrator
                                                                  • 02-09-22
                                                                  • 3178

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Early Canada vs USA betting action from BetMGM:

                                                                  "The 4 Nations tournament has been great so far, featuring the most bet-on hockey games of the season. We saw plenty of U.S. backers a few nights ago against Canada, and they were happy to cash in. Now, all eyes are on Thursday’s Canada-USA final, which we expect to be the most bet-on hockey game of the year." – Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                                    • 36704

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Two observations:

                                                                    1) I'm surprised that Finland played as well as they did. Thought they'd be DOA.

                                                                    2) I will strongly consider Canada in this spot. Not as clean of a tournament for them. Feel like the price may be too depressed on CAN.
                                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                                      • 36704

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      Two observations:

                                                                      1) I'm surprised that Finland played as well as they did. Thought they'd be DOA.

                                                                      2) I will strongly consider Canada in this spot. Not as clean of a tournament for them. Feel like the price may be too depressed on CAN.
                                                                      OK. I thought about this. Was going to bet CAN.

                                                                      I believe the Home ice will matter in this game. In Boston, think back to Home ice in 1980. I'll pass this game.
                                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • DwightShrute
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-17-09
                                                                        • 102344

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                        OK. I thought about this. Was going to bet CAN.

                                                                        I believe the Home ice will matter in this game. In Boston, think back to Home ice in 1980. I'll pass this game.
                                                                        I'll bet ya 10,000 betpoints Canada wins

                                                                        plus I will throw in 10,000 Schrute bucks

                                                                        Last edited by DwightShrute; 02-19-25, 07:45 AM.
                                                                        Comment
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