4 Nations Face-Off Picks and Predictions

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3069

    #1
    4 Nations Face-Off Picks and Predictions
    Starting a thread to discuss the 4 Nations Face-Off that will run from February 12th to 20th. Let's take a look at the odds to win via FanDuel, with commentary from SBR's Gary Pearson:

    Canada (+140)

    "The depth of the Canadian roster goes a long way toward explaining why there's almost no gap between the two 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorites.

    The initial six-man unit announced over the summer has combined for six Hart Trophies, seven scoring titles, eight Stanley Cups, and a Norris Trophy. Canada will be flush with offensive talent up front, along with the best puck-moving blue-liner in the league in Makar.

    The biggest question mark will be in goal, where no Martin Brodeur, Patrick Roy, or Carey Price-caliber option is available. The battle to be No. 1 sees Vegas Golden Nights veteran Adin Hill, St. Louis Blues starter Jordan Binnington, and Montreal Canadiens veteran Samuel Montembeault tangle to see who will earn the top job. Binnington is the 4 Nations Face-off Canada starting goalie odds front-runner.

    It's difficult to know just how much the lack of top-tier goaltending will matter. But you can be sure that Canada's impressive roster of skaters will do everything it can to ensure it doesn't."


    USA (+160)

    "The Americans rolling out six sensational players in the prime of their careers as the core of the roster was a heck of a flex. The other 17 players aren't exactly third-liners, either.

    That's the thing about this U.S. side: Not only is it deeper than ever, but the majority of players who will suit up are young, hungry, and supremely talented. The expanded list includes Matthew Tkachuk's truculent Ottawa Senators sibling Brady, Chris Kreider of the New York Rangers, talented young defensemen Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild, and Jaccob Slavin of the Carolina Hurricanes.

    The U.S. also boasts a notable edge in goal, with two of the league's hottest goalies atop the pecking order.

    Expect to see Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets as the No. 1 option, though Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars has been playing out of his mind and deserves a shot at the top spot too. Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins rounds out the netminder depth chart, but he's been struggling for most of the season and is the clear No. 3 at the 4 Nations Face-Off."


    Sweden (+430)

    "You can be certain the Swedish roster will make life quite miserable for opposing forwards.

    Any defense corps boasting a pair of high-end puck-movers in Hedman and Karlsson, along with a Stanley Cup-winning lynchpin in Gustav Forsling, will be well-positioned to grind out positive results. Add in the inclusions of former No. 1 pick Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres and Stanley Cup finalist Mattias Ekholm of the Edmonton Oilers, and defensive prowess is clearly a strength of this team.

    That's going to loom especially large for a Swedish side that might struggle to keep up offensively with the North American clubs.

    Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks, Lucas Raymond of the Detroit Red Wings, and Adrian Kempe of the Los Angeles Kings will help, and the rest of Sweden's forward additions should contribute too. But there's not nearly the same level of scoring depth here, and although Linus Ullmark and Jacob Markstrom should fare well in goal, it's hard to see this team doing enough to make it to the final."


    Finland (+950)

    "Finland's top-end talent is among the best in the world.

    The team rolled out an initial six-man roster that includes a reigning Stanley Cup champ and two-time Selke Trophy winner (Barkov), a two-time 100-plus-point scorer (Rantanen), a pair of NHL blue-liners who are a combined plus-66 over the past two seasons (Heiskanen and Lindell), and the goalie who has led the NHL in saves during two straight years (Saros).

    However, Heiskanen has since been ruled out due to an injury, along with Jani Hakanpaa, and Rasmus Ristolainen. The defense lacked depth even before those three went down, so it will be interesting to see how the Finns cope with the other team's explosive offenses.

    Regarding the forwards, the remaining forward group takes a major hit when compared to the other three teams in the tourney beyond Roope Hintz.

    But Saros is regarded as one of the NHL's best netminders, despite Nashville's horrendous season. He might need to be again now. Finland could steal a win, but this team is most likely overmatched, even in a short round-robin."
  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3069

    #2
    Canada vs Sweden - Wednesday, February 12th at 8:00 PM ET (Bell Centre, Montreal)

    Picks and predictions:

    Canada 3-Way ML (-165 FanDuel)

    Over 5.5 Goals (-135 DraftKings)


    Player Prop picks:

    Connor McDavid Over 0.5 assists (-128 FanDuel)

    Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists (+102 FanDuel)

    Filip Forsberg Over 0.5 points (-128 FanDuel)

    - Gary Pearson
    Comment
    • Headsterx
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-03-16
      • 22385

      #3
      First game is going to be wild and entertaining but have it as low scoring. Taking u6 but would also take u5.5. Canada wins by late goal to break up 1-1 game.
      Comment
      • k13
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-16-10
        • 18053

        #4
        Hard to know how this tourney will go and how hard the players play.
        Like Sweden for a long shot.
        Comment
        • lakerboy
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-02-09
          • 94363

          #5
          Canadian goaltending on paper looks awful and that angle will be played big but it might backfire.
          USA great squad and definitely the best goalies.

          Sweden can give trouble to any team but not sure they can score enough.
          Comment
          • SBR Andy
            Administrator
            • 02-09-22
            • 3069

            #6
            4 Nations Face-Off betting insights from BetMGM:

            Tournament Winner:




            Sweden vs Canada:

            Comment
            • franz555
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-13-14
              • 10427

              #7
              Canada vs USA Final

              Loser gets sold to the winner...... USA as our 11th Province ?

              I like it

              GO CANADA
              Comment
              • SBR Andy
                Administrator
                • 02-09-22
                • 3069

                #8
                Sweden comes back from 2 goals down but Mitch Marner wins it for Canada in overtime:

                <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MITCH MARNER!!! 🚨 <br><br>He wins it for Canada in just an amazing overtime! 🍁 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/4Nations?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etf w">#4Nations</a> <a href="https://t.co/lcXpPbkoBw">pic.twitter.com/lcXpPbkoBw</a></p>&mdash; NHL (@NHL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1889890443694866881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >February 13, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
                Comment
                • SBR Andy
                  Administrator
                  • 02-09-22
                  • 3069

                  #9
                  Thursday, February 13th at 8:00 PM ET - USA vs Finland (USA -330 | O/U 5.5)

                  Where: Bell Center (Montreal, QC)

                  How to Watch: ESPN, Sportsnet


                  USA vs Finland picks and predictions


                  USA -1.5 (-120)

                  "Finland was already the David in this tournament before Jani Hakanpaa, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Miro Heiskanen were ruled out through injury. Pitting their rosters against one another is like comparing the depth in a kiddie's splash-around pool to one that features Olympic 10-meter diving.

                  While these highly passionate contests aren't played on paper, I feel there's too much of a class disparity for the Finns to overcome. I don't think the USA will blow them out of the water, with a 4-1 final — the last goal being an empty-net insurance marker — my most probable outcome.

                  The USA is stacked throughout their enviable lineup, especially in goal, which I outlined in my early 4 Nations Face-Off predictions.

                  I have no doubt Finland's defense will make life difficult. Still, there's only so long you can prevent what should be a relentless attacking barrage from the likes of Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Eichel, Kyle Conner, Brady Tkachuk, and company."


                  Under 5.5 goals (+100)

                  "How does Juuse Saros vs. Connor Hellebuyck sound for Exhibit A?

                  Two of the best netminders over the last decade will backstop their respective teams, with Hellebuyck the runaway Vezina Trophy odds favorite again.

                  While the Finns have enough offensive firepower to concern the USA, Mike Sullivan's team should dictate play enough to keep Finland's high-danger chances at a minimum.

                  I like the chances of Hellebuyck saving pretty much anything he sees. And then there are the Finns, who will do their utmost to prevent the Americans from showcasing their high-octane, All-Star-like offense.

                  They'll collapse deep, trying to force the USA to take perimeter shots. While the favorites should dominate the shot total, Saros will most likely be at his all-world best while donning his nation's colors."


                  USA vs Finland player prop picks

                  Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots (+110)

                  "Since the calendar turned to February, something lit a fire under Tkachuk's hind parts.

                  While I can only postulate, I wouldn't be surprised if it had something to do with knowing the 4 Nations Face-Off was on the horizon. Tkachuk is one of the most fierce competitors on the team, rivaled by his irascible and bearish younger brother.

                  He fired at least three shots on goal in four of the last five games with the Florida Panthers. In those four Over successes, Tkachuk averaged 6.5 shots per game. He's playing alongside Jack Eichel and Kyle Connor on line 1A, the latter of whom is one of the league's best setup men. Tkachuk will be in the mood on Thursday, galvanized by wearing the Red, White, and Blue.

                  Plus, I expect the Americans to dictate proceedings, which should relate to an increased shot total. I wouldn't be surprised to see him light the lamp, too. Either way, he'll be an influential reason the Americans win."


                  Jack Hughes Over 0.5 assists (+140)

                  "Hughes has 41 assists in 57 games for the New Jersey Devils. At this tournament, he's playing on a line with Auston Matthews and Jake Guentzel. Matthews is the go-to triggerman on the line, but Guentzel is no goal-scoring slouch. He has 27 goals through 54 games in his first season with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

                  If my simple arithmetic is correct, that's 0.5 goals per game.

                  While Hughes isn't enjoying his best run with the Devils, amassing just three assists in the last six games, tomorrow's game against the Finns represents an entirely different kettle of fish. With two of the best snipers by his side, Hughes will be able to create the magic he's renowned for."


                  Auston Matthews anytime goal (+130)

                  "Auston Matthews was born for this type of best-on-best tournament. And having the "C" slapped on his shirt should buoy the 27-year-old. Matthews is part of a formidable first power play unit alongside Eichel, Tkachuk, Guentzel, and Adam Fox.

                  He hasn't scored in six games for the Maple Leafs, so he's overdue. That's an ominous prospect for an injury-decimated Finnish defensive corps.

                  Matthews tends to be a streaky goalscorer, so if he lights the lamp in the opener, look for the dam to burst. He netted 10 goals in the 11 games before his current barren patch."


                  - Gary Pearson
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 36654

                    #10
                    Andy, you're on top of this:
                    1) Do you think CANADA is at all overrated? Maybe b/c of age.
                    2) I'd be STUNNED to see Finland play competitively. Lot of Finnish injuries.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • SBR Andy
                      Administrator
                      • 02-09-22
                      • 3069

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                      Andy, you're on top of this:
                      1) Do you think CANADA is at all overrated? Maybe b/c of age.
                      2) I'd be STUNNED to see Finland play competitively. Lot of Finnish injuries.
                      Maybe a tad overrated, they are still very strong. Americans should give them all they can handle though.

                      And yeah the lack of depth will likely catch up to the Fins.
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 36654

                        #12
                        Originally posted by SBR Andy
                        Maybe a tad overrated, they are still very strong. Americans should give them all they can handle though.

                        And yeah the lack of depth will likely catch up to the Fins.
                        Thx, Andy. Yeah, those Canadian names - Wow.

                        That's my one prediction for this tournament. Finns will be overwhelmed. Would be surprised to see them get > 2 points.
                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • lakerboy
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-02-09
                          • 94363

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                          Thx, Andy. Yeah, those Canadian names - Wow.

                          That's my one prediction for this tournament. Finns will be overwhelmed. Would be surprised to see them get > 2 points.
                          Imagine if Russia was involved? Then it would have been epic
                          Comment
                          • MalikHusam
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-07-16
                            • 2659

                            #14
                            Originally posted by lakerboy
                            Imagine if Russia was involved? Then it would have been epic
                            Barkov is Russian. So I'll enjoy Finns getting whipped 6-1 today
                            Comment
                            • SBR Andy
                              Administrator
                              • 02-09-22
                              • 3069

                              #15
                              Originally posted by MalikHusam

                              Barkov is Russian. So I'll enjoy Finns getting whipped 6-1 today
                              Nice call lol
                              Comment
                              • SBR Andy
                                Administrator
                                • 02-09-22
                                • 3069

                                #16
                                Big showdown on Saturday night:


                                8:00 PM ET - USA vs Canada (CAN -110 | O/U 6.5)


                                Picks and Predictions:

                                Canada Moneyline (-110)

                                "You can argue about the outcome of this head-to-head until you're red, white, and blue in the face. There are two schools of thought. First, the Americans have superior goaltending, which I outlined in our early 4 Nations Face-Off predictions.

                                Vezina Trophy odds runaway favorite Connor Hellebuyck cruised to the victory against the Finns, giving up just one goal and finishing with 1.73 goals saved above expected—same old, same old for the indomitable American.

                                Meanwhile, Canada's Jordan Binnington had some oh-oh moments but conjured a few timely and game-saving stops against the Swedes.

                                While there's no arguing about who has the advantage between the pipes, Canada is at home with the last change. Having the match-up advantage can be critical for this contest. Jon Cooper will be able to mitigate, even offset, the threat provided by those he knows all too well — like the Tkachuk brothers, Jack Hughes, Jake Guentzel and Auston Matthews — from his time coaching Tampa Bay.

                                Cooper knows what is required to impede those runaway trains, whether by sending the top two lines out or using his Tampa Bay connection — Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. While the loss of Shea Theodore will hurt the Canadians, the USA is playing without Quinn Hughes.

                                I also like that Canada faced stiffer adversity in their opener against the Swedes. Though it took a while, the USA broke things open in the third against Finland. Being pushed to the brink as Canada was might help them get up to speed slightly quicker.

                                If Binnington plays like he did in the latter stages of the opener, Canada should edge this one, albeit barely."


                                Under 6.5 goals (-125)

                                "Matthew Tkachuk put it perfectly when he said it would be like playing three — hopefully four — Stanley Cup Final Game 7s. No disrespect to the Finns, but they probably wouldn't even make the postseason in that metaphor.

                                If Saturday's tilt transpires like a Game 7, as I'm sure it will, space will be a premium. I can't see either team taking many penalties, which means it should be decided 5-on-5, a more conducive Under 6.5 goal scenario.

                                In addition, the Americans have the world's best netminder between the pipes, so Canada will understand acutely the importance of playing a flawless defensive game. Yes, both teams have more firepower than a munitions depot, but they also possess the world's best collective defenses.

                                In a Game 7 scenario, defense usually prevails."

                                - Gary Pearson
                                Comment
                                • Headsterx
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-03-16
                                  • 22385

                                  #17
                                  USA! USA! USA! If we can’t get more goals than Sweden against Canada, then we’re in trouble. 😡
                                  Comment
                                  • lakerboy
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 04-02-09
                                    • 94363

                                    #18
                                    USA wins then Canada wins final. USA will peak fast
                                    Comment
                                    • mjsuax13
                                      Moderator
                                      • 03-14-15
                                      • 24784

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                                      USA wins then Canada wins final. USA will peak fast
                                      As a US born citizen who’s entire family is Canadian I’m excited for a great game.
                                      Comment
                                      • lakerboy
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-02-09
                                        • 94363

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by mjsuax13
                                        As a US born citizen who’s entire family is Canadian I’m excited for a great game.
                                        I'm looking forward to it.
                                        Comment
                                        • mjsuax13
                                          Moderator
                                          • 03-14-15
                                          • 24784

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by lakerboy
                                          I'm looking forward to it.
                                          The speed and skill on that sheet of ice tomorrow is going to be something to see. Hell- Finland and Sweden will be fun to watch. My two little hockey guys went to bed talking about the game tomorrow.
                                          Comment
                                          • SBR Andy
                                            Administrator
                                            • 02-09-22
                                            • 3069

                                            #22
                                            Can't wait for tonight's game!

                                            Here's some player prop picks from SBR's Gary Pearson:

                                            Sidney Crosby Over 0.5 assists (+102 FanDuel)

                                            "How can you not take advantage of plus-money odds for Sid the Kid to notch at least one helper after his impressive performance during the opener against Sweden? Captain Canada notched three assists against the Swedes, including a behind-the-back dish to Nathan MacKinnon and the primary helper on Mitch Marner's overtime winner.

                                            Sure, Marner did most of the work, but Sid had the wherewithal to get him the puck in space. Crosby is the MVP odds favorite across our best sportsbooks, and the legend continually proves why he's the most clutch player on the planet. Crosby has logged 19 assists in his last 26 games with Canada.

                                            A big game player personified, Crosby makes everyone on the ice better, an even more frightening prospect considering MacKinnon is alongside for the ride."


                                            Matthew Tkachuck Over 2.5 shots (+106 FanDuel)

                                            "I backed Matthew, the older Tkachuk brother, to fire at least three shots on goal against Finland in Team USA's opener. He finished with two goals on eight shots.

                                            Before launching on sight against the Finns, he hit the Over on his shots total in four of the star's last five outings with the Florida Panthers. Tkachuk is averaging six shots per contest across his last six games in all competitions.

                                            While there's no way he'll be that prolific against Canada, Tkachuk should ratchet up his beast mode when donning the red, white, and blue. And a tilt against Canada will surely get the competitive juices firing.

                                            I'm confident he'll fire three or four shots on Jordan Binnington."


                                            Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal (+200 bet365)

                                            "I backed MacKinnon, who's among the Hart Trophy odds front-runners, to finish with the most tournament goals. He's a goal off the pace now, trailing the Tkachuk brothers.

                                            MacKinnon registered six shots against the Swedes, scored a power-play goal in the first minute, and was a one-man wrecking crew during overtime. He's also playing beside Crosby, who can find him in seemingly impossible situations.

                                            While I believe goals will be at a premium against the Americans, MacKinnon is a perennial threat to light the lamp."


                                            Connor McDavid Over 0.5 assists (-122 FanDuel)

                                            "McDavid was flying around the ice like a firefly against the Swedes while impossible to stop and nearly impossible to slow.

                                            But his line wasn't as electric, with Marner and Sam Reinhart struggling to keep up for a large portion of the contest. Marner made up for it late in the third and overtime, but Reinhart never reached fifth gear. I expect a much-improved performance from Reinhart tonight.

                                            McDavid's assist in the opener came on MacKinnon's power-play goal 56 seconds into the contest. He would have tallied a second helper had it not been for Filip Gustavsson's acrobatic point-blank save on Devon Toews.

                                            McDavid will be even better against the Americans, and he should tally at least one helper. FanDuel offers the best price of our best sports betting sites on most prop picks."
                                            Comment
                                            • SomeDayinBuffalo
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-12-11
                                              • 1443

                                              #23
                                              This is the biggest hockey game that I been looking fwd to. With no big games in Buffalo for over ten years now. USA should over power them with a hard forecheck. USA for the win
                                              Comment
                                              • Headsterx
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-03-16
                                                • 22385

                                                #24
                                                Here we go!!!

                                                USA!!!🇺🇸
                                                Comment
                                                • Headsterx
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-03-16
                                                  • 22385

                                                  #25
                                                  Fight! Fight! Fight!

                                                  I love it!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Headsterx
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-03-16
                                                    • 22385

                                                    #26
                                                    And this isn’t even the playoffs. And they are fighting again… 🤣
                                                    Comment
                                                    • batt33
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-23-16
                                                      • 5963

                                                      #27
                                                      more fights or goals?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Headsterx
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-03-16
                                                        • 22385

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by batt33
                                                        more fights or goals?
                                                        2 fights w/in 9 secs at the start of the game. 0-0
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SomeDayinBuffalo
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-12-11
                                                          • 1443

                                                          #29
                                                          That's how you start a game off. Like '96..... Dam right!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Headsterx
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-03-16
                                                            • 22385

                                                            #30
                                                            Ugh! McDavid scores and Canada up 1-0.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Igor_1965
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-18-15
                                                              • 2628

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by batt33
                                                              more fights or goals?
                                                              That was awesome. Turn the lights off, let'em fight lol
                                                              Comment
                                                              • khicks26
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-16-06
                                                                • 45378

                                                                #32
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BHExchange
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 01-30-25
                                                                  • 127

                                                                  #33
                                                                  1-1

                                                                  advantage U.S.A.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • batt33
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-23-16
                                                                    • 5963

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Fun game to watch!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Headsterx
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 12-03-16
                                                                      • 22385

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by batt33
                                                                      Fun game to watch!
                                                                      Yeah, got a stalemate right now.
                                                                      Comment
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