Probability and EDGE

[Math]

Wednesday February 12


Furman (-240) $1000 to win $417


The line gives Furman about a 71% chance of winning. I give Furman an 80% chance of beating Mercer tonight.

My EDGE in said game is roughly (9%)

Most wouldn't play this EDGE because most don't understand how to identify or calculate their EDGE and most do not win at sports betting.


GL

Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you have that much of an edge, salud. GL on the Paladins.

[Math]

I think it was pretty obvious in this one. Most people don't exploit the real EDGE, they spend their efforts trying to beat the (-110) line.

Thanks


Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think it was pretty obvious in this one. Most people don't exploit the real EDGE, they spend their efforts trying to beat the (-110) line.

Thanks


Mr. Math

24-pt win. Nice hit.

You are right. Mercer-Furman is the type of game that the Oddsmaker overlooks.

[Math]

EDGE Plays
(1-0) (+$417)


I'll put out another one here tonight.

Thursday February 13


Towson (-300) CBB
$1000 to win $333


Most would never make this wager, most do not Win. The line is telling you that Towson has a 75% chance to win this game. My projected win rate for Towson on this game is 83%. I'm looking at an 8% EDGE in this game.

Probability is simply the likelihood of an event occurring. The likelihood of Towson winning tonight is 83%. The correct line should be (-471) not (-300).

Good luck going against their (-110) coin flips that they spoon feed everybody.


Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

EDGE Plays
(1-0) (+$417)


I'll put out another one here tonight.

Thursday February 13


Towson (-300) CBB
$1000 to win $333


Most would never make this wager, most do not Win. The line is telling you that Towson has a 75% chance to win this game. My projected win rate for Towson on this game is 83%. I'm looking at an 8% EDGE in this game.

Probability is simply the likelihood of an event occurring. The likelihood of Towson winning tonight is 83%. The correct line should be (-471) not (-300).

Good luck going against their (-110) coin flips that they spoon feed everybody.


Mr. Math

GL on the play. Towson used to be awful. So, I'm not sure a lot of guys are running to bet them.

[Math]

They should run to bet them tonight, if they like money.

U should not play them ATS,,,,, why you may ask..... Because if you play them (-7), u lose your EDGE. Everything is about having an EDGE. U must identify it and take advantage of this.

I'll lose this play 17% of the time, I'll win it 83% of the time. I plan on winning this one tonight.


GL

Mr. Math

[lakerboy]

Good luck. Let me know when you have a +300 winner with a big edge.

[Math]

Just find a (+300) Winner that should win 40% of the time.

However it's a different mindset picking those. If u can handle it, they are great bets. I prefer to win a whole lot more than 40% of the time.

I like Plays like Towson (-300) tonight, I like to Win.


Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just find a (+300) Winner that should win 40% of the time.

However it's a different mindset picking those. If u can handle it, they are great bets. I prefer to win a whole lot more than 40% of the time.

I like Plays like Towson (-300) tonight, I like to Win.


Mr. Math

I have my own opinions on Spread versus Moneyline. Betting vs -110 is a lot of trading dollars.

If you can identify a string of Moneyline favorites that are +EV, you are printing money. And the downside risk is not that big. GL w/ the play.

[DJK]

Just find a (+300) Winner that should win 40% of the time.

However it's a different mindset picking those. If u can handle it, they are great bets. I prefer to win a whole lot more than 40% of the time.

I like Plays like Towson (-300) tonight, I like to Win.


Mr. Math

In order to make these high juiced ML wagers (-300 and higher) profitable, don't you have to hit them at 300% clip or even higher at a minimum?

One loss wipes out 3 wins.

I understand that the odd of winning is reduced when you add more teams but I'm thinking to add App State and E. Kentucy which brings down the juice to -122 at BetMGM.

[Math]

On a (-300) wager, u would need to win at a rate over 75% to turn a profit, simple math.

I am not here advocating high moneyline Plays. I'm advocating playing with an EDGE.

The line on Towson (-300) indicates a 75% win rate. My work shows Towson winning this game 83% of the time. This is a nice 8% EDGE. It's that simple.


Mr. Math

[unde0087]

Never seen anyone win dropping the amount of juice you are handing the books on a nightly basis. Maybe you will be the first Mr Math.

[DJK]

On a (-300) wager, u would need to win at a rate over 75% to turn a profit, simple math.

I am not here advocating high moneyline Plays. I'm advocating playing with an EDGE.

The line on Towson (-300) indicates a 75% win rate. My work shows Towson winning this game 83% of the time. This is a nice 8% EDGE. It's that simple.


Mr. Math

Don't know where you got -300 but it's much lower at FanDuel -265.

I also checked their past game history and Delaware actually beat Towson quite a bit in Towson which is concerning.

[Math]

U are correct about Fanduel, the price of (-265) is even better, my EDGE would be much better at that number. I bet the game earlier and unfortunately I'm not a psychic on line movement.

I love it that people don't make these bets.

Let me put it this way. If I had 100 cups and I put a ball underneath 83 of them..... Would you risk $1000 to win $333 that you could turn over a cup with a ball underneath it. If you would not, u don't understand what an EDGE is and you probably should not be betting.


Mr. Math

[Math]

Can't say I'm surprised by the outcome. The EDGE was on the moneyline. I'll take the Win and move on to the next one.



Mr. Math

[lakerboy]

Can't say I'm surprised by the outcome. The EDGE was on the moneyline. I'll take the Win and move on to the next one.



Mr. Math

I got -2.5 -110 late in the game. Thanks for the tip.

[Math]

EDGE Plays
(2-0) (+$750)


Valentines Day


Cornell (-250) CBB
$1000 to win $400


Pretty simple here. The line is indicating around a 71% chance of a Cornell win. I have the Probability over 81% that Cornell wins this game. So we are very close to a 10% EDGE in this one. The moneyline should be more than (-400) and I'm getting to lay (-250).

Not alot else to say, shouldn't have too.

I advise to ease back off your (-110) wagers, where your perceived EDGE is much smaller and more times than not, u have no EDGE.

Let's just let Cornell get us the money tonight.


GL

Mr. Math

[Math]

I actually agree with Kenpom on this one. Not always the case but it is tonight.



Mr. Math

[unde0087]

EDGE Plays
(2-0) (+$750)


Valentines Day


Cornell (-250) CBB
$1000 to win $400


Pretty simple here. The line is indicating around a 71% chance of a Cornell win. I have the Probability over 81% that Cornell wins this game. So we are very close to a 10% EDGE in this one. The moneyline should be more than (-400) and I'm getting to lay (-250).

Not alot else to say, shouldn't have too.

I advise to ease back off your (-110) wagers, where your perceived EDGE is much smaller and more times than not, u have no EDGE.

Let's just let Cornell get us the money tonight.


GL

Mr. Math

Your advise is to play square massive moneyline juiced plays because of a system you have that calculates a supposed "edge"? I mean come on man. The minute one of these square moneylines loses, which could be tonight as 91% of the money is on this side so every square in the country is playing this, I can almost guarantee this thread will be abandoned. If anyone is listening to this they need their head checked. If you were even serious and smart enough to want to play these at least get the best number. I mean you are making almost nothing and then get about the worst number possible. If you can't predict lines then you obviously should stop trying to give gambling advice and stop gambling yourself because that is how you beat books. Not with a math formula with beating their lines. You can't afford to leave money on the table when you are already basically allowing books to freeroll you every night.

Do yourself a favor and go back to your plus money play thread where going 8-8 still turned a profit because I guarantee this is going to turn out poorly for you.

[Math]

Thanks for the advice.

I would never advise playing a board full of large moneyline favorites.

I believe the current line is (-275) at most places, I bet it at (-250). What money was left on the table.

U are obviously someone that abhors large moneyline favorites. I'm saying its always a great bet to lay (-250) when the line should be (-400). I'm sorry if u don't see it that way.


Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Best of luck, Mr Math. I hope you run it up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One very short commentary:

*I don't think people should blindly judge Math based on his bet price.

This goes deep into the risk associated with a given bet. -200 Favs carry different risks than +200 Dogs. You actually need a bigger edge on the Dogs to have the same risk-adjusted edge.

American bettors mostly think about 11-to-10 to beat the spread ATS. Moneylines are a secondary market. In other sports (like Soccer and Tennis), however, Moneyline is a standard line.

In Soccer, the Asian line is often viewed as the secondary market. Anyway, I wish Math success on his venture. Thx for posting.

[unde0087]

Thanks for the advice.

I would never advise playing a board full of large moneyline favorites.

I believe the current line is (-275) at most places, I bet it at (-250). What money was left on the table.

U are obviously someone that abhors large moneyline favorites. I'm saying its always a great bet to lay (-250) when the line should be (-400). I'm sorry if u don't see it that way.


Mr. Math

Ya, because it is not sustainable. Betting those moneyline favorites is what books want you to do. That is literally their main weapon to take our money.

I also wonder how you are arriving at these "edge" calculations. For example, tonight in this game, I see the implied probability at the current line that Cornell will win almost 74% of the time. After running this game the probability they win is 76% so I would say your edge is around 2%. Are they going to win, they should but again for me, having to bet 1k to not even scratch back half isn't a smart investment.

I am just trying to figure out how you go from playing all plus money plays to all of a sudden firing away at large moneylines and telling people to stay away from -110 lines. I mean do what you want by all means but I just don't understand the switch.

[unde0087]

By the way Math guy, I am sorry if I came across as a prick. That is not my intention. I hope you win and continue to win. Just not a believer in these juice strategies.

[DJK]

Thanks for the advice.

I would never advise playing a board full of large moneyline favorites.

I believe the current line is (-275) at most places, I bet it at (-250). What money was left on the table.

U are obviously someone that abhors large moneyline favorites. I'm saying its always a great bet to lay (-250) when the line should be (-400). I'm sorry if u don't see it that way.


Mr. Math

Can you explain why you would think the moneyline should be -400?

-250 that you got or the current ML at -275 to -285 is about right for the point spread of -6.5.

You could be right about this one considering how Harvard's W-L record is pretty sad.

Good luck with your bet.

It sucks that I could've already won two tailing your picks and I'm sure as soon as I start tailing I will lose.

I didn't bet what I said I was going to last night, because I was busy working and getting money back that my wife lost in the casino at Hard Rock casino in Atlantic City. At least I got her loss of $500 back but it would have been nicer if I bet $1,000 on my parlay which would have netted me $819.

[Math]

No worries.

I'm not an advocate of them either, unless u have an EDGE. In any bet we make, we need to have an EDGE. We can have an EDGE with dogs. I'll play a couple of them tomorrow, we should have alot of opportunities.

Best of luck whatever u play.


Mr. Math

[Math]

Why should the line be (-400)? Because the spread should be at least (-8.5). I believe our good friend Kenpom has it around (-10.5) if I remember what he gave out for home court. A neutral site kenpom has it around (-12.5) or 13. I only mention kenpom because most are familiar with him but personally I like Cornell by 10 tonight.

GL


Mr. Math

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Why should the line be (-400)? Because the spread should be at least (-8.5). I believe our good friend Kenpom has it around (-10.5) if I remember what he gave out for home court. A neutral site kenpom has it around (-12.5) or 13. I only mention kenpom because most are familiar with him but personally I like Cornell by 10 tonight.

GL


Mr. Math

Math, you're making a hit on this site. GL.

Will give one more Coll Hoop insight. KenPom is so regarded in this segment. I personally think his #s are flawed. When I saw a game where the public was keen to KenPom...but my numbers said otherwise, Bingo. Thou shalt not worship False gods...and I think KenPom qualifies.

[Math]

Thanks CTG

I'll run the EDGE Plays here until I lose one, could be tonight or it could be next month.

But I want to show you what I have for Plus Money plays now. I've got something that hits 46% Winners against a (+138) avg line. I'll let you decide if that's good or how good. I'll get this going tomorrow.


Mr. Math

[Math]

I've got a pretty good book for dogs. I'll give you a couple plus money plays for Friday night.

Marist (+130) CBB

Sacred Heart (+160) CBB


Risking $200 on each


GL

Mr. Math

[sunshine11]

EDGE Plays
(2-0) (+$750)


Valentines Day


Cornell (-250) CBB
$1000 to win $400


Pretty simple here. The line is indicating around a 71% chance of a Cornell win. I have the Probability over 81% that Cornell wins this game. So we are very close to a 10% EDGE in this one. The moneyline should be more than (-400) and I'm getting to lay (-250).

Not alot else to say, shouldn't have too.

I advise to ease back off your (-110) wagers, where your perceived EDGE is much smaller and more times than not, u have no EDGE.

Let's just let Cornell get us the money tonight.


GL

Mr. Math

5-17

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5-17

Rally starts now.

[DJK]

Close but no cigar.

Good thing that I didn't tail on this one.

Dartmouth kicked Columbia's ass though as only -1.5 favorite or only -130 ML. Home court is so important in CBB.

[DJK]

I think someone on Cornell fixed the game. No way in hell they lose to WOKE idiots at Harvard.