Probability and EDGE

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-14-25, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Rally starts now.

Almost. Rallied but lost by 2.

**unde0087** · 02-14-25, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I think someone on Cornell fixed the game. No way in hell they lose to WOKE idiots at Harvard.

This happens basically every night, Harvard were only 6.5 dogs. Teams that are 11 point dogs have been winning at a very good clip (at home and on the road) in all conferences on a nightly basis in cbb this season.

**DJK** · 02-15-25, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by unde0087

This happens basically every night, Harvard were only 6.5 dogs. Teams that are 11 point dogs have been winning at a very good clip (at home and on the road) in all conferences on a nightly basis in cbb this season.

So, being 11 point dog in CBB is like 13 point dog in college football?

I've seen quite a bit of 13 point dogs winning SU in college football.

I think I will check the history on that in this year's CBB and if that trend is true then start betting it I guess. Thanks for letting me know.

**Math** · 02-15-25, 08:07 AM

Here are a couple of Plus Money Plays for Saturday. Cornell went down last night but I believe the 2 Plus Money Plays went (1-1) (+0.30 units).

Everyone seems to like Plus Money Plays and I do also.

UNCG (+130)

Campbell (+130)

Both CBB, just grade them as Risking one unit. Everyone bets different amounts.

GL

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-15-25, 08:26 AM

Tell you what I'll try to do, since it's wintertime and there isn't much else to do.

First off I don't want to brush over, the EDGE Plays went (2-1) (-$250) for me. I lost (-$250) on them.

But I think the forum likes the Plus Plays. Let's see what 100 of them will look like. All wagers will be Plus Money, not necessarily moneyline underdogs. Pucklines, 2 team parlays could be included at times, as long as it's Plus Money.

Plays Plays
(1-1) (+0.30 units)
Risking one unit on each

Pending

UNCG (+130) CBB

Campbell (+130) CBB

I'll go as far to say this. After 100 Plays, I project a record of (46-54) (46% Winners) with an average payback of (+138) on Wins. This will yield (+9.48 units) of profit. Let's see how close I get to those projections.

I'll have a couple more later today.

GL

Mr. Math

**unde0087** · 02-15-25, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by DJK

So, being 11 point dog in CBB is like 13 point dog in college football?

I've seen quite a bit of 13 point dogs winning SU in college football.

I think I will check the history on that in this year's CBB and if that trend is true then start betting it I guess. Thanks for letting me know.

I don't mean just 11 point dogs. My point is dogs have been most of my plays all season. I would have to look back on the percentage of plays I have made on taking points with teams but I know it is a high number and they are killing it. I am not one to play moneylines period unless I truly believe they are winning. Like Florida at Auburn a week ago. I was merely stating that dogs in the range of 6-14 are quite alive this season both home and road.

**Math** · 02-15-25, 02:14 PM

Here is everything I have for Saturday February 15

Plus Plays
(1-1) (+0.30 units)
Risking one unit on each

Pending for Saturday

UNCG (+130)
Campbell (+130)

I did a piss poor job on the lines, I hope the selections are better.

Adding Saturday night

Longwood ML / San Diego St ML (+150)

MTSU (+130)

Risking one unit on each.

Nothing else today. Looking for 2 wins from somewhere.

GL

Mr. Math

**unde0087** · 02-15-25, 05:55 PM

Good start to the day math guy. I like your new approach.

**Math** · 02-15-25, 06:14 PM

Thanks.

Should hit around 46% Winners with a (+138) payback.

This is a very low risk way to wager (invest). I have 4 numbers that I keep in mind.

40% Winners
Just stay over this point and any losses will be small

42% Winners
This point should be breakeven, everything above it is profitable

46% Winners
This is my projected win rate and it should yield a (10%) ROI

50% Winners
This mark in probably unattainable but would give you your own ATM machine

Plus Plays
(3-1) (+2.90 units)
Risking one unit on each

Pending Saturday night

Longwood ML / San Diego St ML (+150)
MTSU (+130)

There are 4 possible outcomes Saturday night

(2-0) (+2.80 units)
(1-1) (+0.50 units)
(1-1) (+0.30 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

GL

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-15-25, 06:19 PM

Math, props on your posts. I'm watching from afar.

One basic observation: *I like that you're playing the obscure teams.
...I'm telling you, the Oddsmaker STRUGGLES to post sharp #s on the obscure games.
...Talk to the Linesmakers on the strip. Those are the type of games that they write almost no action on.

Good luck on the Camels!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-15-25, 08:39 PM

Math, you have any opinion on the Cal-Irv @Hawaii game? Thanks!

**Math** · 02-15-25, 09:12 PM

Not really, would lean Irvine.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-15-25, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by Math

Not really, would lean Irvine.

OK, thx for the reply. I'll pass. GL on your plays.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-16-25, 12:14 AM

Wow, pretty good. I count 3-for-3 on the ML Dogs!

**Math** · 02-16-25, 08:06 AM

Thanks

Plus Plays
(4-2) (+3.20 units)
Risking one unit on each

I'll get a couple up for Sunday soon. I'll try and go thru 100 of them. I've got a Probability Formula that I use, something similar to what Stoffo once used in baseball. I mean I have a sequence of steps that I use. Guidelines that must be met.

I also usually only have 2 plays pending at a time, I have my reasons.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-16-25, 10:01 AM

Alright guys here are a couple of Plus Plays for Sunday February 16

Rider (+165)

Evansville ML / Louisville ML (+145)

Risking one unit on each

I have no personal opinion on either, I'm not a handicapper.

4 possible outcomes for Sunday

(2-0) (+3.10 units)
(1-1) (+0.65 ujits)
(1-1) (+0.45 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

GL

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-16-25, 10:27 PM

Looks like I got the split, which is what I look for.

Back on Monday

Mr. Math

**blankoblanco** · 02-16-25, 11:14 PM

As Mr. Math, I'm sure you realize that a small sample size means almost nothing. If you can keep it up for a while, then I'll be impressed. GL

**Math** · 02-16-25, 11:47 PM

Of course but it's not a small sample size for me, better yet, this is not new for me. I would expect to go (460-540) after 1000 Plays with an average payback of (+138) on the 460 wins. I didn't just make these numbers up.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-17-25, 08:52 AM

Ok, here is one for Monday February 17

Plus Plays
(5-3) (+3.65 units)
Risking one unit on each

Team Canada ML / Lamar ML (+155)

Risking one unit

It's a 2 team ML parlay, with overtime included on Canada.

I'll play one more Plus Play later today

GL

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-17-25, 12:38 PM

Ok guys, here is what I have for Monday February 17. This gets me to 10 Plus Plays. I'll do 100 of them here.

Plus Plays
(5-3) (+3.65 units)
Risking one unit on each

Monday

Canada ML /Lamar ML (+155)

Kansas St (+130)

Risking one unit on each

4 possible outcomes tonight

(2-0) (+2.85 units)
(1-1) (+0.55 units)
(1-1) (+0.30 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

GL

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-18-25, 07:07 AM

Looks like a split on Monday night, which is good. Here is a little 10 play update.

Plus Plays
(6-4) (+4.20 units)
(60%) Winners
(+137) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

The Win percentage is too high, it should regress to the 46% area as we move along. The average payback is almost spot on to the (+138) projection.

Back at some point with a couple of Plus Plays for Tuesday.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-18-25, 07:13 AM

Here is one for Tuesday night.

Texas AM (+125)

Risking one unit

I'll get one more up later today.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 02-18-25, 08:18 AM

Alright guys, got to get this out early, errands to run before the snow and ice arrive. I'm retired so it doesn't matter much to me but I don't want to be stranded without milk and bread (ha ha).

Plus Plays
(6-4) (+4.20 units)
Risking one unit on each

Plus Plays for Tuesday night.

Texas AM (+125)

LSU ML / BYU ML (+200)

Risking one unit on each

4 possible outcomes for tonight

(2-0) (+3.25 units)
(1-1) (+0.25 units)
(1-1) (+1.00 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

Good luck tonight guys, I never watch the games, shouldn't have too. I run a Probability Formula for the selections. I probably couldn't name 5 cbb players.

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-25, 08:38 AM

Snow and Ice. At first I was thinking something else. Have a great day, and GL on the picks.

**TommieGunshot** · 02-18-25, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Math

Wednesday February 12

Furman (-240) $1000 to win $417

The line gives Furman about a 71% chance of winning. I give Furman an 80% chance of beating Mercer tonight.

My EDGE in said game is roughly (9%)

Most wouldn't play this EDGE because most don't understand how to identify or calculate their EDGE and most do not win at sports betting.

GL

Mr. Math

Very good point that most don't know how to identify or calculate their edge. For example betting -240 with an 80% chance of winning is a 13.33% edge. Yet some people who don't understand arithmetic might guess it is a 9% edge. Very hard to win without knowing this basic math.

**hawkwind** · 02-18-25, 06:41 PM

Pathetic hope u lose da farm mfbsf

**Easy-Rider 66** · 02-18-25, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by hawkwind

Pathetic hope u lose da farm mfbsf

**Math** · 02-18-25, 10:30 PM

Perhaps one of you fine gentlemen could tell me the EDGE on a (+200) wager, that wins 50% of the time?

Id appreciate it.

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-25, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by Math

Perhaps one of you fine gentlemen could tell me the EDGE on a (+200) wager, that wins 50% of the time?

Id appreciate it.

Mr. Math

Sign me up for that one:
(.50) * +200 = +100
(.50) * -100: = -50
...+50 on 100 Risked. +50% ROI

What I wouldn't pay for that. The BEST player has his mind thinking like a Calculator all the time.

**Math** · 02-18-25, 10:43 PM

I was just saying that I hit one of those tonight.

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-25, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Math

I was just saying that I hit one of those tonight.
Your plays are good. Keep stacking those Dead Presidents.

Mr. Math

Your plays are good. Keep stacking those Dead Presidents.

**Math** · 02-18-25, 10:51 PM

Yes, playing in this manner keeps you under the radar.

Plus Plays
(7-5) (+5.20 units)
(58.33%) Winners
(+146%) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

I can assure you those numbers won't last. I just hope the regression is ultra slow. After 100 Plays, u should see about (46% Winners) with a (+138) avg payback on Wins.

Is that good?

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-25, 10:53 PM

Of course it is. If your read on these games is that precise, I tip my cap. Keep it going, GL.

**Math** · 02-18-25, 10:56 PM

I did not just throw those numbers out there. I can back up them up. U mean everyone can't hit (46%) against a (+138) line?

Mr. Math