Morehead State +20.5 @ Kentucky

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  • onthewhat
    Restricted User
    • 05-14-08
    • 15411

    #1
    Morehead State +20.5 @ Kentucky
    The John Calipari era begins on Friday night for the Kentucky Wildcats as they host a Morehead State team coming off of an NCAA Tournament appearance. Morehead returns 4 starters from that team, including junior Kenneth Faried who is the top rebounder in the country (13.0 per game) returning. Faried is the Preseason Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year, and another Morehead State player is on the first-team All-OVC in Maze Stallworth.


    In the offseason, Billy Gillispie was fired as the head coach and John Calipari was brought in, and with him he brought the nations' #1 recruiting class, and one of the top recruiting classes of all time. However, the centerpiece of that recruiting class will be watching from the sidelines as John Wall is suspended for the game due to benefits received from his AAU coach, who had previously been classified as an agent.


    Similar to a quarterback in football, the Point Guard has the ball every possession and must make critical decisions. In Kentucky's first exhibition game, when John Wall was suspended, the team turned the ball over 23 times with the majority of them errors in decision making against an undersized team. They only turned the ball over 12 times with John Wall running the show in the 2nd exhibition game. While they did have their way with both exhibition opponents, neither team provided any kind of challenge and Kentucky appears to be riding high coming off two huge victories in their exhibition tune-ups.


    With the team learning an entirely new offense (dribble drive motion) and returning only 6 scholarship players and 6 incoming players, and playing without the nations #1 recruit, I like Morehead State to cover the 20.5 points on Friday night. This is an experienced mid-major and they were picked to win the OVC this year. The team picked 2nd in the conference, Murray State, went out to top 15 California and had a dog fight before eventually losing by 5 points. I think Morehead State will be able to hang around long enough and will keep the game in the 10 to 20 point range in the 2nd half. Morehead State lost by 20 to Louisville in the NCAA Tournament last year, when Louisville was the #1 overall seed, and returns 4 starters. I think the main angle in this game will be the fact that Morehead knows their offense inside and out, while Kentucky is constantly making mistakes in the new offense, especially without their point guard.


    Kentucky is also fighting the injury bug with PG Eric Bledsoe and C Daniel Orton both banged up. Both are expected to play, however.


    YTD: 0-0 (0.00)
  • onthewhat
    Restricted User
    • 05-14-08
    • 15411

    #2
    Just as an FYI: all of my plays this year will be risk/win 1 unit. To win 1 unit on chalk plays, risk 1 unit on underdog plays.

    This line is currently available at Bookmaker, +20.5 -110
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    • Fishhead
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 08-11-05
      • 40179

      #3
      Comment
      • onthewhat
        Restricted User
        • 05-14-08
        • 15411

        #4
        I nailed the opener BTW to Fishhead via text message earlier in the week. I have a clue posters.
        Comment
        • Fishhead
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-11-05
          • 40179

          #5
          Originally posted by onthewhat
          I nailed the opener BTW to Fishhead via text message earlier in the week. I have a clue posters.

          Comment
          • durito
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-03-06
            • 13173

            #6
            Why would you want to nail the opener?

            What is fair value?
            Comment
            • onthewhat
              Restricted User
              • 05-14-08
              • 15411

              #7
              I believe fair value is 18.5
              Comment
              • jagaf22
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-08
                • 2932

                #8
                Nice write up OTW
                Comment
                • Deuce
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 01-12-08
                  • 29843

                  #9
                  You will not be praised until march only if you're +50%
                  Comment
                  • ABEHONEST
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-27-09
                    • 9470

                    #10
                    Still from MISSOURI on this one !
                    Comment
                    • onthewhat
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-14-08
                      • 15411

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ABEHONEST
                      Still from MISSOURI on this one !
                      Comment
                      • onthewhat
                        Restricted User
                        • 05-14-08
                        • 15411

                        #12
                        Comment
                        • ClydeFontaine
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-09-09
                          • 375

                          #13
                          Nice writing. Hopefully you won't have to resort to the "let's go more head chant" as the game winds down. And even more hopefully you aren't stationed at the gloryhole at the Blue Note Saloon when you say it.
                          Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • onthewhat
                            Restricted User
                            • 05-14-08
                            • 15411

                            #14
                            Comment
                            • Chi_archie
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-22-08
                              • 63165

                              #15
                              what about the Under, you said under's would be great for kentucky this year
                              Comment
                              • onthewhat
                                Restricted User
                                • 05-14-08
                                • 15411

                                #16
                                Totals are not out yet

                                Will probably not have a play on the total on this game anyways, too early
                                Comment
                                • pavyracer
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 82475

                                  #17
                                  Thanks for the write up onner. I hammered it already. Morehead St is very good.
                                  Comment
                                  • Fishhead
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 08-11-05
                                    • 40179

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by pavyracer
                                    Thanks for the write up onner. I hammered it already. Morehead St is very good.

                                    The line appears to be going higher........I'm waiting!
                                    Comment
                                    • onthewhat
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 05-14-08
                                      • 15411

                                      #19
                                      Public is all over Kentucky. Does the public know that John Wall is OUT for tonights game??

                                      Comment
                                      • onthewhat
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 05-14-08
                                        • 15411

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Fishhead
                                        The line appears to be going higher........I'm waiting!
                                        I probably would have waited as well, but I wanted my pick and writeup released as early as possible. Good luck!!!

                                        Comment
                                        • Fishhead
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 08-11-05
                                          • 40179

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by onthewhat
                                          I probably would have waited as well, but I wanted my pick and writeup released as early as possible. Good luck!!!


                                          100% UNDERSTANDABLE..........



                                          Comment
                                          • Regul8er
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-06-07
                                            • 10666

                                            #22
                                            Im with fishhead.....going to wait a few more hours, and see where this thing goes. My book has -21 now.
                                            Comment
                                            • onthewhat
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 05-14-08
                                              • 15411

                                              #23
                                              BTW: The game is on ESPNU at 6:30 tonight.
                                              Comment
                                              • Regul8er
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-06-07
                                                • 10666

                                                #24
                                                Thanks onthewhat....being a Kentucky resident, I would be watching regardless.
                                                Comment
                                                • onthewhat
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 05-14-08
                                                  • 15411

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Regul8er
                                                  Thanks onthewhat....being a Kentucky resident, I would be watching regardless.
                                                  Oh word. You ever been to Rupp for a game?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Fishhead
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 08-11-05
                                                    • 40179

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by onthewhat
                                                    BTW: The game is on ESPNU at 6:30 tonight.

                                                    YES!!!

                                                    Onner, play a lotto number with me...........have some balls.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • lyon804
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-02-09
                                                      • 6526

                                                      #27
                                                      Nice analysis! Sounds good. Count me in onthewhta! One thing though. Do you think it might make better since to take Morehead +12 for the first half? The reason I ask is based on your analysis. Kentucky will probably get off to a slow start against a experienced and motivated team. If kentucky gets it together late it could be a rout because experience or otherwise Kentucky has to have better players. What do you think?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Regul8er
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-06-07
                                                        • 10666

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by onthewhat
                                                        Oh word. You ever been to Rupp for a game?
                                                        Not yet, just moved down to Cincinnati about 2 years ago from Toronto. I just bought a house in Union, KY (about an hour and a half north of Lexington). My wife is a diehard UK fan, and has been to severeal games. Were going to try and catch a few this year.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • onthewhat
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 05-14-08
                                                          • 15411

                                                          #29
                                                          Let me know when you go to a game, I have season tickets and will be at probably 12-15 of the remaining 18 games (not going tonight).
                                                          Comment
                                                          • onthewhat
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 05-14-08
                                                            • 15411

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by lyon804
                                                            Nice analysis! Sounds good. Count me in onthewhta! One thing though. Do you think it might make better since to take Morehead +12 for the first half? The reason I ask is based on your analysis. Kentucky will probably get off to a slow start against a experienced and motivated team. If kentucky gets it together late it could be a rout because experience or otherwise Kentucky has to have better players. What do you think?
                                                            That might not be a bad play, Morehead hung with Louisville in the tournament for the first half going into the half down 2. I like the full game getting 20+ points myself, good luck though.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Fishhead
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 08-11-05
                                                              • 40179

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Fishhead
                                                              YES!!!

                                                              Onner, play a lotto number with me...........have some balls.

                                                              Be a man ONNER!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • lyon804
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-02-09
                                                                • 6526

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by onthewhat
                                                                That might not be a bad play, Morehead hung with Louisville in the tournament for the first half going into the half down 2. I like the full game getting 20+ points myself, good luck though.
                                                                Thanks for responding. I kinda feel get 12+ for the first half is big, especially with your analysis of the game. Chances are if Morehead don't cover 12 they are down 13 or more at the break. I don't know the players like you, but I would believe Kentucky's scabs are better than Moreheads making 20+ pts seem a little small if this was a 13+ lead at the half. Either way man, I like your angle. It also never takes much convincing to get me to go against the public, although I have been getting drilled lately, last 3 days betting against the public.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Bootylicious
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-13-09
                                                                  • 165

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I'm all over Moorehead +20' thanks to this. Good luck us!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • onthewhat
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 05-14-08
                                                                    • 15411

                                                                    #34
                                                                    +21 is long gone, Bookmaker is down to +20

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ABEHONEST
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 06-27-09
                                                                      • 9470

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Boys ,it's early !
                                                                      Does Kentucky have any more players other than Wall ?
                                                                      Hmmmm ?
                                                                      Comment
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