Going to use this rubric on the Predictions. Over time the champs (by seed) roughly break down to:
*1 = 50%
*2 = 30%
*3 = 10%
*4 or higher = 10%
If I feel like a given wrestler has a better chance than those odds, I'll list him.
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Going to use this rubric on the Predictions. Over time the champs (by seed) roughly break down to:
*1 = 50%
*2 = 30%
*3 = 10%
*4 or higher = 10%
If I feel like a given wrestler has a better chance than those odds, I'll list him.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol? -
125: 2) Ramos PUR
...Ramos sprung an all-time upset in the 2023 Semi-finals when he pinned Spencer Lee! Finished 2nd that year.
...125 was a weight of chaos last year. Ramos had a disappointing NCAAs and busted out.
...He came back focused this year. He didn't get taken down during the Reg Sea.
...Lost to Penn St's Lilledahl @ Big Tens. Finished third there.
...Ramos has the pedigree. Top-seed Lilledahl is just a true Frosh. I think Ramos can win it.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
133: 2) Ayala IOWA
...Ayala finished as runner-up at 125 in 2024. He bumps up to 133 this season.
...At this weight Crookham LEHIGH had been the #1 guy. He suffered an injury and was knocked out for the season.
...Ayala is a great technical wrestler. His patented move is a slick Slide-by that he gets to regularly.
...Byrd ILL stuck Ayala in the Big Ten final. Byrd is the top-seed and will feel ready to go here.
...Ayala has slightly more pedigree. He's filled out to the new weight. I think he can win it.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
141: 2) Bartlett PENNST
...Another weight where I'll go against the top-seed. I'll opt for Bartlett, based on PennSt's insane track record.
...Two semi-final upsets at this weight in the Big Tens. Bartlett fell to Vombaur MINN, and defending champ Mendez lost to Hardy NEB.
...Hardy won the final over Vombaur to secure the 1-seed. Hardy is solid but he does have three losses this season.
...Bartlett is a talented wrestler. He lost to Mendez in the 2024 NCAA final.
...Bartlett flipped that result with a win over Mendez this year. Feel like Bartlett has been the most consistent performer at this weight this season.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
149: 1) Henson VATECH
...Henson upset top-seed Lovett NEB at last year's NCAAs. He rode that upset to the top of the podium.
...He came back strong this season. He continued the momenum with another win over Lovett in Vegas.
...Henson comes in with an 18-0 YTD record. He's one of only two non-Big Ten 1-seeds.
...Lovett looked primed to win last year but took the upset versus Henson. Lovett is a great wrestler but he's had two nemeses. Henson beat him twice. And Parco IOWA had a 3-0 H2H record over Lovett until Lovett beat Parco convincingly at Big Tens.
...Henson is very thick for this weight, and his top-seed is merited. He could be on a collision course to meet Lovett again. If that matchup materializes, the onus will be on Lovett to flip the recent H2H results.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
157: 1) Kasak PENNST
...As if Penn St needed another star, I think they have one in Kasak.
...Kasak took the Levi Haines route. He skipped his Senior year of HS to train in State College.
...Last year Kasak lost his Round One match but won his next SEVEN matches on the backside to secure a 3rd-place finish.
...This year Kasak has only one loss. It was an Injury default where he knocked heads and couldn't continue.
...Teemer IOWA held the #1 ranking early in the season. But he picked up a hamstring injury and missed time. His results dipped, and I don't think he's regained the early-season form.
...Shapiro CORN is the 2-seed and another serious contender. But Shapiro also missed time due to an injury (concussion).
...Kasak has looked like the most polished wrestler at this weight. His only loss in the L25 matches (dating back to 2024) came via Injury Default. This weight has some potential for upsets, but Kasak is my pick.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
165: 1) Mesenbrink PENNST
...Mesenbrink transferred to PennSt last year. Mitch had to earn his spot in the lineup. He was barely cracking the top 20 in the early rankings.
...But he kept winning. He went thru the Regular Season undefeated into NCAAs. Competing in a top-heavy bracket, he made the Finals before losing a close match to Carr IOWAST.
...165 is a weight where a lot of the competition cleared out this year. Carr graduated; O'Toole and Hamiti bumped up to 174.
...Mesenbrink has a great gas-tank. And he's a fantastic technical wrestler as well. He's become a Takedown specialist and has racked up a bunch of Tech Falls.
...3-seed Caliendo did give Mesenbrink a tight match at Big Tens. But it's hard seeing anyone topping Mesenbrink this year. Mitch is a clear favorite and arguably the biggest favorite at any weight this year.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
174: 3) Hamiti OKLAST
...First real long-shot pick. Going against the grain on this one.
...Hamiti was @Wisconsin. He was successful and only picked up a handful of losses.
...Problem is that he ran into some real top-end wrestlers @ NCAAs. Hamiti has yet to earn a high-end NCAA finish.
...He transferred to OklaSt this year. He went undefeated in the Reg Sea. He led former champ O'Toole 4-0 in the Big 12 Finals. But he gave up an Escape + a Takedown in period 3. Lost it in OT.
...I'm a big believer in OklaSt under new coach David Taylor. John Smith had been there forever.
...Hamiti showed me enough against O'Toole. I think he's capable of getting over the hump.
...Haynes PENNST is the 2-seed at this weight. He won last year @157 and bumps up two weights. So, it's a hotly-contested weight. I question Haynes moving up two weights, and I think all the wear has O'Toole looking not as sharp as in the past. I will take a flyer on Hamiti, and no one will see it coming.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
If anyone SEES live odds for this event (for Team or Individual), plz post. I'd be happy to post my opinions.
I can say that this event historically doesn't generate very accurate odds. The viewership is a pretty small group of people.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
One incredible angle that I hardly ever see:
*Askren Wrestling Academy (AWA) has a chance to produce three NCAA champs this year. Mesenbrink, O'Toole and Keckeisen.
They may not all win. I think each can make the Finals. All three have trained @AWA in Wisconsin.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
184: 2) Keckeisen, NOIA
...Starocci PENNST comes in as a 4x NCAA champ. With an extra eligibility year from COVID, he has a chance to win an unprecedented 5th title.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
...Some will view Starocci as unbeatable. But he did have to go to Overtime to beat McEnelly MINN in the Big10 Finals.
...Keckeisen was the 184-lb champ last year. Starocci bumps up from 174. So, it's a potential showdown between two Defending champs.
...Frosh McEnelly has had a great season. He was undefeated before taking his first loss against Starocci.
...If Mesenbrink has the best gas-tank in NCAAs, then Keckeisen is a close second. Keckeisen is explosive and doesn't seem to tire.
...I view Starocci the same way I view O'Toole from Missouri. They've had success, but they also have a lot of tread on their tires.
...Most will favor Starocci at this weight. Starocci and Keckeisen might both be in the top 5 P4P wrestlers in this year's NCAAs. I'm voting for Keckeisen to win it and potentially deny history by beating Starocci.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Some early lines that I saw:
*TEAM: Penn St is listed at 1/60 to win. -6000, so a chance to earn 1.7% interest. Do I think it's free money? No, I don't.
...It's hard to think of a scenario where they lose. But Nebraska did challenge them at Big Tens.
...PennSt has a real chance at ten All Americans. BDavis is their lowest seed at # 8 at 133.
...Four weeks ago I thought they could put the top eight weights into the Finals. That's before Lilledahl took off @125.
...I wouldn't recommend playing PennSt. But I also think it would take multiple Injury Defaults for them to not win.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Better question is: *What will PennSt's margin of victory be? Have to think a good O/U would be around +36 pts.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
197: 2) Buchanan IOWA
...Buchanan transferred to Iowa this year. He had been undefeated until he took a loss to Cardenas MICH in the Big10 final.
...Top-seed Cardenas only has one loss this year. Like Buchanan, Cardenas is a veteran who transferred in under the new NIL rules.
...3-seed AJ Ferrari CAL-BAK is undefeated. Ferrari is a former champ. He won as a Frosh @OklaSt. But he suffered injury in a serious car wreck. He went thru rehab and a long period of inactivity. He re-located to Cal-Bakersfield this year.
...4-seed Barr PENNST is another rising star in the Nittany Lion program. He earned the spot and started the year off undefeated. He eventually took a close loss to Buchanan in the dual. He picked up a knock in the Big Ten tourney, bit of a health question here.
...If Barr had been healthy, I would have called for him to make the finals. As talented as Ferrari is, I question performance after the long layoff. And the competition he's faced hasn't been the best. Feel like Buchanan has been the most consistent at this weight, think he can flip the result against Cardenas if they meet again.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Hvy: 1) Steveson, MINN
...This current crop of Hvy-weights is very athletic. It's not just a group of oversized guys.
...Steveson, in particular, is one of the quickest Heavy-weights ever at NCAAs. He returns after an absence away from wrestling.
...He's a former champ and hasn't lost since 2019. Any thoughts of ring-rust were removed, as he's dominated the field.
...3-seed Kerkvliet PENNST is the defending champ. But Steveson beat him convincingly at Big Tens. That gap appears to be wide.
...2-seed Hendrickson OKLAST is also an accomplished wrestler. He's a pinning-machine and has had high finishes in the past. He transferred from Air Force after receiving a special waiver to get an extra year of eligibility. In his one season at OklaSt he's looked sharp. But he did pick up a knock at the Conference tournament, so he may not be 100%.
...In another year Kerkvliet or Hendrickson would be worthy of winning the title. Might be a bridge too far this season.
...I'd love to call for the upset, but I don't see it. Steveson is maybe the front-runner to win the Hodge Trophy as top NCAA wrestler this year. Barring an injury, this is Steveson's bracket to win...but I'd love to be wrong.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Trying to find some live odds, if anyone decides to take a flyer. I see that Starocci is favored by a little more than I expected.
I saw Starocci -300 to win. So, Keckeisen should be +220 or higher. They wrestled at the All Star exhibition. Match went to Overtime, b4 Starocci won. I think this matchup is super-close, and I give the gas-tank edge to Keckeisen.
Starocci has a big-time reputation. Is he 100% after being injured last year? Keckeisen is a live-dog, if the odds are right IMHO.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
One reason for my Keckeisen optimism is how much he's thoroughly dominated 4-seed Plott. He's beaten Plott consistently by margin.
Just my opinion. But I view Keckeisen as a real beast. He happens to be in the same bracket as a 4x champ. In many other brackets Keck would be the clear favorite. Also, Starocci moved up a weight this season (to fill out the PSU lineup), which is not always easy.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
My opinions:
*125: Field -150 (vs Lilledahl). This guy's seed shot up too quickly.
*165: Mesenbrink -600 to win Title. I rate his chances as > 90%.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I'll post some mock-bets against these odds (above):
1* 125 Ramos +400: 1.00 to win 4.00
149: opinion = Henson. But I'll pass. Too close.
157: 1* Kasak 1.87: 1.00 to win .87
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
If anyone is betting this event...I really like the 125 Ramos at 4/1 to win it!
...Ramos has great pedigree. He's been the best guy at this weight over the course of the year.
...He lost one match vs PSU BIG Tens. Lilledahl hit him for a 7-pt move.
...The odds swung too far based on that one result. In my mind Ramos is > 50/50 if that matchup takes place @ this tournament.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Can't wait for the action to start!!Comment -
What sites are you seeing wrestling lines. I would like to bet on a few matches. My boy was NJ state champComment -
Day One recap:
*Penn St goes 20-0. They'll be favored in 9 of 10 matches in Qtr-finals. Can 133 Davis spring the upset vs top-seed Byrd?
*Closest to a huge upset. Lorenzo from Stanford had O'Toole down. Late TD gets O'Toole the narrow win.
*Wrestler of the day might be Allred NEB. Was down 10-1 in the opener, came back to pin. In 2nd match, was down 4-1 in closing seconds but cradled up and pinned opponent again.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Some mock lines I'll make for Qtr-Finals:
125: Spratley +1.5 vs Ramos -1.5
133: Byrd -2 vs Davis +2
141: Hardy -1 vs Frost +1
I think the three matches above will be close. Overall, I don't see all that many obvious landmines.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I watched the 125 matches. Wrestling CAN be a funny sport:
*Seymour LEH did very little in his match. He fought off Lilledahl TD attempts. Dodged the TD and got to OT @1-1. Lilledahl was very close to a TD, Seymour popped for Stalling warning. Seymour got his Escape. On top Seymour got dinged for a 2nd Stalling - 1 point. 2-2, Seymour wins on riding time criteria, but he did almost nothing during the whole match.
*Spratley gets his TD and fends off Ramos. Very nice upset win.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Comment -
A few updates:
*125 - some upsets. 1 and 2 are gone.
*133 - Fugitt WIS thru upset route. But Ayala looks razor-sharp, a TD-machine.
*141 - Chalky. Yet another Mendez-Bartlett matchup.
*149 - Henson has looked shaky. Could be dealing w/ injury.
*157 - Kasak gassed in 3rd period. Top-half is now wide-open.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*165 - I would take 1.10 on Mesenbrink to win title. Can't see him losing.
*174 - Best semi-final. I'd make the odds: Hamiti +140, Haines -160.
*184 - I think Keckeisen is too good for the Frosh. Keck has bonused L8 NCAA matches.
*197 - Top 4 advance. Probably the most-balanced weight, could make a case for any of 4.
*Hvy - Gable looks really good. I'll favor Hendrickson -120, Kerkvliet +100.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Everyone loves a Winner. Takes some stones to advance on the backside (after your goals of a Title are extinguished):
125: Lilledahl PennSt pins Ramos PUR
133: Romney (Mitt?) Cal-Poly beats Fugitt WIS
141: Bartlett PennSt beats Composto PENN
149: Van Ness Penn St beat D'Emilio OhioSt
157: Kasak Penn St beats Chumbley NWern. 3rd place for 2nd straight year.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Will post my theoretical lines for the Finals. Let me know if anyone sees live #s:
125: Robinson NCSt -150 vs Spratley OklaSt +140
...Robinson is young. But I think he's slicker.
133 Byrd ILL +100 vs Ayala IA -110
...This one is very close. Byrd pinned Ayala BIG Tens.
...Byrd is very strong for this weight. But I view Ayala as being more technical.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
