9:45 PM ET - #15 Omaha vs #2 St. John's picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:
St. John's -18.5 (-110 FanDuel)
"Among all the Cinderella hype, it’s easy to forget that sometimes March Madness games devolve into blowouts. That could be just what happens in this two-versus-fifteen seed matchup.
To be clear, I don’t love the prospect of backing St. John’s to cover a whopping 18.5-point spread, but it’s the much sounder side of this market.
St. John’s leads the country in adjusted defensive rating since February 1, which helps them rank 19th overall in T-Rank. Their offense is shaky, but their fast pace and prowess on the offensive glass help them score enough. Meanwhile, Omaha is 93rd overall in T-Rank through that span, and, importantly, they play at an average pace.
The problem is that Omaha hasn’t seen anything like St. John’s. They lost their only Quad 1 contest, dropping a road game to Iowa State by 32. While the incentives are different in a regular-season game than in a tournament matchup, if you’re betting on the spread in this one, you’re better off expecting a blowout than a competitive game."
Kadary Richmond under 15.5 points (-113 Caesars)
"Omaha and St. John’s have one dramatic similarity: Both teams force their opponents to take a boatload of 3-pointers. Since February 1, St. John’s ranks 340th in opposing 3-point rate (45.9%), while Omaha ranks 332nd (45.2%). While St. John’s offense is notorious for not taking 3-pointers—and, generally, for missing the ones they do take—that could be an issue in this spot.
If St. John’s takes a higher share of 3-pointers than usual, that’s a huge red flag for Kadary Richmond, who is shooting an atrocious 18.4% from deep on 1.1 attempts per contest. Richmond is still averaging 12.7 points per game due to his contributions inside, but I’m willing to fade him at this price and hope that St. John’s runs in another direction offensively.
Further, the blowout risk could lead to extra rest for Richmond and their starters. Of our best sportsbooks, Caesars provides the best price."
St. John's -18.5 (-110 FanDuel)
"Among all the Cinderella hype, it’s easy to forget that sometimes March Madness games devolve into blowouts. That could be just what happens in this two-versus-fifteen seed matchup.
To be clear, I don’t love the prospect of backing St. John’s to cover a whopping 18.5-point spread, but it’s the much sounder side of this market.
St. John’s leads the country in adjusted defensive rating since February 1, which helps them rank 19th overall in T-Rank. Their offense is shaky, but their fast pace and prowess on the offensive glass help them score enough. Meanwhile, Omaha is 93rd overall in T-Rank through that span, and, importantly, they play at an average pace.
The problem is that Omaha hasn’t seen anything like St. John’s. They lost their only Quad 1 contest, dropping a road game to Iowa State by 32. While the incentives are different in a regular-season game than in a tournament matchup, if you’re betting on the spread in this one, you’re better off expecting a blowout than a competitive game."
Kadary Richmond under 15.5 points (-113 Caesars)
"Omaha and St. John’s have one dramatic similarity: Both teams force their opponents to take a boatload of 3-pointers. Since February 1, St. John’s ranks 340th in opposing 3-point rate (45.9%), while Omaha ranks 332nd (45.2%). While St. John’s offense is notorious for not taking 3-pointers—and, generally, for missing the ones they do take—that could be an issue in this spot.
If St. John’s takes a higher share of 3-pointers than usual, that’s a huge red flag for Kadary Richmond, who is shooting an atrocious 18.4% from deep on 1.1 attempts per contest. Richmond is still averaging 12.7 points per game due to his contributions inside, but I’m willing to fade him at this price and hope that St. John’s runs in another direction offensively.
Further, the blowout risk could lead to extra rest for Richmond and their starters. Of our best sportsbooks, Caesars provides the best price."
