March Madness Picks and Predictions

[SBR Andy]

Friday, March 28 at 10:09 PM ET - #1 Houston vs #4 Purdue picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Houston -7.5 (-115 BetMGM)

"I’ve been on the wrong side in evaluating Purdue two games in a row as the Boilermakers disposed of a pair of double-digit seeds, High Point and McNeese, by 12 and 14 points, respectively.

Although I’m not in love with the 7.5-point spread, I’m tripling down against Purdue. I’m still not a Boilermakers' believer, so I'm not using their lopsided victories in the first and second round to inform how they’ll perform against the team with the fourth-shortest March Madness odds.

Purdue benefitted from High Point and McNeese being non-existent on the glass. The Boilermakers out-rebounded both mid-major opponents by a significant margin despite ranking outside the top 110 in both offensive and defensive rebounding efficiency, per Torvik.

Houston should be more physical on both ends, and the team with the top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation won’t allow so many easy buckets in the paint as Purdue’s previous opponents."


J'Wan Roberts Over 10.5 points (-125 BetMGM)

"Purdue ranks 341st in the nation in 2-point defense percentage. To this point in the NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers haven’t faced anyone good enough to make them pay for that deficiency, but that changes on Friday.

And I feel the stars could align for Houston’s J’Wan Roberts.

The senior forward hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer all season, so I'm looking at Roberts to exploit Purdue’s propensity of allowing easy 2-point buckets.

At 10.9 points per game, he’s not the Cougars’ most prominent scoring presence. But he scored 18 against Gonzaga in the second-round win and should have a favorable matchup.

Roberts' Over 10.5 points is a five-star recommendation, as we believe the low projected game total reflects Purdue’s offensive issues more than Houston’s scoring output. Of our best sportsbooks, you'll want to lock this in at BetMGM."

[SBR Andy]

Two I'm on for Thursday:

Alabama/Florida ML parlay +104 FanDuel
Arkansas ML +205 BetRivers

[Mac4Lyfe]

FWIW - I’m hearing Maryland’s coach didn’t even show up to the team dinner. Apparently he has already accepted the Villanova job. I guess he will still coach the game but he and their AD are out at Maryland.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Calipari ain’t leaving Arkansas…

[SBR Andy]

Updated Friday Sweet 16 betting insights from BetMGM:

[SBR Andy]

Gonna take a shot at Kentucky ML +177 pinnacle.

[kostasblues]

Gonna take a shot at Kentucky ML +177 pinnacle.

It's closer than the spread would lead you to believe. I don't disagree with the pick Andy

[Mac4Lyfe]

Gonna take a shot at Kentucky ML +177 pinnacle.

I think it’s a coin flip, so +177 is a good number to me. I’m really looking forward to the games tonight. I wish they’d stagger them better.

[SBR Andy]

Saturday Elite 8 Predictions

6:09 PM ET - #1 Florida vs # Texas Tech picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Texas Tech +7 (-110 Caesars)

"Last round, I was higher on Texas Tech than the market and lower on Florida. Although the games didn’t play out exactly like I thought they would, Maryland’s head-coaching debacle might explain some of the Terrapins' underperformance, and Texas Tech’s improbable comeback softened the blow of it failing to cover.

All of this is to say that I don’t see much of a reason to adjust my priors. We’re backing the Red Raiders to cover in this spot not in spite of their performance against Arkansas but because of it.

Freshman Christian Anderson, who hadn’t scored in double-figures all tournament despite playing almost every minute, finally got over the hump with a 22-point game on 50% shooting from the field. He picked up the slack as Darrion Williams struggled with a dreadful 30.8% from the field - his worst showing on 30-plus minutes all year.

While I don’t think Texas Tech pulls off the upset, the Red Raiders have an offense capable of keeping up with Florida. Since February 1, Tech ranks seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, trailing second-ranked Florida by 3.2 points per 100 possessions.

Despite posting a 35.4% 3-point shooting percentage over that span, Texas Tech is shooting just 25% from deep in the tournament. If the Red Raiders can benefit from some positive shooting regression, this game will be closer than the market says."


Christian Anderson Over 10.5 points (-118 FanDuel)

"I mentioned Anderson earlier, but it’s worth hammering home just how pivotal he has been to this Texas Tech team. He may not lead the group in scoring, but with Chance McMillian down for the count, he is averaging 39.7 minutes per game in the tournament. On the year, Anderson is averaging only 30.5 minutes per game.

Yet Anderson’s increased playing time isn’t reflected in the Florida vs. Texas Tech player prop odds. Those 30.5 minutes per game allowed him to average 10.8 points per contest. If Anderson maintained his scoring pace over 9.2 additional minutes per game, he would be averaging just over 14 points.

The freshman couldn’t find the basket in the first two rounds, shooting a dreadful 22.2% from the floor, but his 22-point game against Arkansas is a better indicator of what we should be expecting from him. Anderson is shooting 43% from the floor this year - his 50% shooting clip against Arkansas is closer to the norm than the 22.2% we saw against Drake and UNC Wilmington."

[SBR Andy]

Saturday Elite 8 Predictions

8:49 PM ET - #1 Duke vs #2 Alabama picks from SBR's Mike Spector

Alabama +7.5 (-118 FanDuel)

"Any good shooter will say there are times when you just need to see the ball go through the net, and that can build confidence throughout a game. That's essentially what Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears said after Thursday’s win over BYU.

Alabama set multiple records during its 113-88 win over BYU. That includes making the most 3-pointers in a tournament game (25), and scoring the most points in a Sweet 16 contest (113) since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.

Duke is the nation's tallest team, and its height should bother Alabama more than BYU did. But the best chance to upset a dominant Blue Devils squad is to catch fire from the perimeter, and no team has a better chance of doing that than Alabama."


Tyrese Proctor Under 13.5 points (+100 FanDuel)

"Duke guard Tyrese Proctor was absolutely on fire entering the Sweet 16, making 19 3-pointers and shooting 63.3% from beyond the arc over his last three games.

But Arizona smartly focused on the sharpshooter after Proctor had made six-plus 3-pointers in three straight games, holding him to just 1-of-4 from beyond the arc.

Proctor averaged just over two made 3-pointers per game over the first 32 contests this season. And few teams run shooters off the 3-point line better than Alabama. The Crimson Tide allow opponents to shoot fewer than 35% of their shots from distance, which ranks 51st in the country.

Therefore, since Proctor has attempted four or fewer 2-pointers in six of his last 11 games, it's hard to see him eclipsing this 13.5-point total given how Alabama is structured defensively."

[SBR Andy]

Sunday Elite 8 Predictions:

2:20 PM ET - #1 Houston vs #2 Tennessee picks from SBR's Mike Spector:

Houston -3.5 (-105 FanDuel)

"Houston needed a basket with less than a second to go to knock off a pesky Purdue team on Friday, while Tennessee coasted to a 13-point victory and avenged its two regular-season losses to Kentucky.

But I still walked away just as impressed with the Cougars, who essentially played a road game against the Boilermakers with their fans turning Lucas Oil Stadium into “Mackey South.”

Houston has lost just one game since the calendar turned to December and ironically is playing for a big geographic advantage at the Final Four with the games being in San Antonio.

Few teams would be comfortable playing Tennessee in a half-court rockfight, but this is right up Houston’s alley.

One could argue the Volunteers had the easier prep for this game, as they did not have to commit as much attention to a familiar Sweet 16 foe in Kentucky.

But Houston has covered 64.3% of its games off one day rest since last making the Final Four in 2021, and its D-I best 3-point shooting percentage should make the difference in this game."


Zakai Zeigler Over 7.5 assists (-102 FanDuel)

"Braden Smith was one of the lone bright spots offensively for Purdue against Houston on Thursday. He carved the Cougars defense up for 15 assists while the Boilermakers totaled just 21 made field goals.

I can't make this a more confident play than a three-star play as Tennessee’s team total is O/U 60.5. But I expect Zeigler will have the ball in his hands a lot, and Houston will trap ball screens and force the ball out of his hands, just like it did to Smith.

That should lead to an eight-plus assist game for Zeigler for the fourth time in the last five games."

[SBR Andy]

Sunday Elite 8 Predictions:

5:05 PM ET - #1 Auburn vs #1 Michigan State picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Michigan State +5.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"This would be a five-star play if the Spartans showed up in the first half. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games and haven’t lost by more than five points since Feb. 1. Only three of their six losses were by more than five points, and they haven’t lost a single game by more than eight this season.

The Tigers have also been a second-half team. They trailed the Creighton Bluejays by two at the break in the second round, and they led by just one over the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16. If you look at the final score, the Tigers’ win over the Wolverines seems impressive, but they trailed by nine with 12:26 remaining.

The Spartans get the edge in a tight game because they never panic and are 12-6 in games decided by single digits. The way to beat the Tigers is to stay close. They’ve only played 11 single-digit games and lost four of them. Look for the Spartans to make big shots late when the game is on the line and they’re at their most comfortable."


Johni Broome Over 11.5 rebounds (+100 BetMGM)

"Broome has been excellent on the boards all season and has turned it up a notch in the NCAA Tournament. He’s averaging 10.8 rebounds per game entering the Elite Eight and has pulled down at least 11 boards in all three tournament games. Arguably, his most impressive performance of the season came in the Sweet 16, when he pulled down 16 rebounds against great Michigan rebounders.

The Spartans are allowing the 13th-fewest rebounds per game this season, but Broome is still in for a big game, primarily because of his ability to snag offensive boards. As a team, the Tigers grab 10.4 offensive boards per game, which is 55th in the country. The Spartans allow opponents to make just 40.4% of their field goals, so Broome and his teammates will have plenty of chances on the offensive glass.

The price for this prop varies significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook. Right now, BetMGM is offering the best price by far, as Caesars is offering the second-best price at just -118."

[SBR Andy]

I think TEN/HOU is a coin flip so going with the Vols ML +135 ScoreBet/ESPNBet

[brock]

Going for a parley this weekend. Duke - the points and Auburn money line.
Should be a great watch.

[SBR Andy]

Going for a parley this weekend. Duke - the points and Auburn money line.
Should be a great watch.

Looks like DraftKings is your best bet! https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet.../#90db3j90db2h