Official thread for March Madness picks and best bets throughout the tournament. Share who you are betting on and find useful game info and betting splits.
Let's get some winners!
Let's get some winners!
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A couple I'm on:
Wednesday
Xavier -2.5 (-110) BetMGM
Friday
St. Mary's -4 (-110) bet365Comment -
Mount St. Mary's vs American Picks from SBR's Shane Jackson:
American -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)
"The Patriot League champions are worth backing in this First Four matchup due to their experience and continuity edge over Mount St. Mary’s.
The Eagles lead the nation in minutes continuity (74.7%), meaning players understand their roles on this team. They are also 50th in Division I experience. For comparison, Mount St. Mary’s is 175th in the former metric and 240th in the latter.
Fun note: The Eagles might try to tip forward if they win the opening tipoff in hopes of a quick basket, something they attempted in the conference title game."
Matt Rogers Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-154 FanDuel)
"Senior Matt Rogers, a 6-foot-9 forward, is American’s best player. He’s averaging 17 points and 5.6 rebounds per game on 55.6% shooting.
Rogers can stretch the floor, shooting 39.9% from long range this season. He’s averaging 1.7 triples per game, clearing this prop in four of his past seven outings.
Mount St. Mary’s ranks 334th in 3-point rate allowed (44.5%), so I like Rogers’ chances of knocking down multiple triples."
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Xavier vs Texas Picks from SBR's Shane Jackson:
Xavier -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)
"If you want to take Xavier’s moneyline value (-150 at FanDuel), that would be a five-star prediction. Still, I’m comfortable laying the points with Sean Miller’s squad against a Texas team that doesn’t deserve to be here and plays a defensive style that benefits the Musketeers.
Xavier shreds teams that play drop coverage, ranking in the 90th percentile in mid-range efficiency. The Musketeers are also an elite free-throw team, ranking eighth in the nation with a 79.4% clip at the charity stripe. That matters because Texas’ defense ranks 319th in free-throw rate.
I’m interested in backing Xavier to make a second-weekend run in this year’s tourney, starting with a win over Texas on Wednesday."
Ryan Conwell Over 17.5 points (-125 FanDuel)
"By clearing his points prop, Conwell can lead Xavier into the NCAA Tournament. This line is as high as 18.5 at some of our best sports betting sites because he’s a three-level scorer who is playing exceptionally well of late.
Conwell has scored 20-plus points in five straight games, including a 38-point performance last time. His free throw rate has been 37% (eighth in the Big East) in conference play, which bodes well entering this matchup.
If Conwell can get to the line and stay aggressive, I expect him to finish with at least 18 points."Comment -
Wednesday First Four betting insights from BetMGM:
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I like the Xavier play.
I've seen both American and MSM a few times this season being they're both East Coast teams.
Both are good midmajors, but IMO there is no edge in that game, the line is razor sharp.
Xavier is my play, they're well-coached and Big East battle-tested.Comment -
Big comeback from Xavier last night.
Thursday
Yale +7.5 (-108 FanDuel)
Friday
Oklahoma +5.5 (-110 bet365)Comment -
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Day 1 Thursday betting insights from BetMGM:
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12:15 PM ET - #9 Creighton vs #8 Louisville picks from SBR's Mike Spector:
Louisville -2.5 (-108 FanDuel)
"The Cardinals, whose March Madness odds are shorter than Creighton's, received phenomenal news ahead of their NCAA Tournament matchup with the Bluejays.
The team’s best 3-pointer shooter, Reyne Smith, will return after missing the ACC Tournament. Smith is shooting 38.3% from deep this season, averaging 3.5 made threes per game.
He also has experience in the NCAA Tournament after knocking down three from beyond the arc against the Alabama Crimson Tide last season.
In an 8/9 matchup that is this evenly matched, Smith’s presence should significantly help a Cardinals’ team that loves to shoot threes. Both teams love to shoot the three, as they each rank in the top 30 in the nation in three-pointers attempted. However, neither shoots particularly well from deep, hitting fewer than 34%.
The Cardinals are underseeded in this tournament, but that doesn’t mean they’re a lock to beat an experienced Big East team.
Still, I think their well-balanced attack, featuring four players that average at least 12 points per game, will be too much for the Bluejays to overcome. The Bluejays have a clear advantage inside with Kalkbrenner, but the guard play of the Cardinals will lead them to victory."
Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 18.5 points (-114 FanDuel)
"FanDuel offers this total one point lower than the rest of our best sportsbooks. Considering that BetMGM and Caesars have the total set at 19.5 and are asking for -125 or more for the Over, this number will increase before tipoff on Thursday.
Kalbrenner averages 19.4 points per game, and he does his damage almost exclusively inside the three-point line. While the Cardinals have size down low with James Scott and Noah Waterman, I don’t see that duo doing much to slow down Kalkbrenner.
He enters the tournament scoring 15 or fewer points in each of his last two games. But he started the Big East tournament with a 32-point performance against DePaul and scored at least 20 in five of his last seven."Comment -
12:40 PM ET - #13 High Point vs #4 Purdue picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:
High Point +8.5 (-118 BetMGM)
"High Point didn’t play a single Quad 1 game this season, but it can be carried by its explosive offense, with the Panthers averaging 81.7 points per game. If High Point can withstand the early minutes of this matchup without getting run off the floor by an opponent superior to anything it has seen so far, the Panthers could be in business.
They hold a distinct statistical edge in an area of struggle for the Boilermakers. High Point ranks 15th in the nation in two-point field goal percentage, an advantage over a Purdue team that ranks 348th out of 364 Division 1 teams in two-point defense.
Though High Point’s mediocre defense could be susceptible to Purdue’s seventh-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, the Panthers could stay competitive if they hold to their end of the bargain scoring the basketball in a defense-optional affair."
Kezza Giffa Over 12.5 points (-110 FanDuel)
"We’re looking to target a scorer with a points prop a couple of notches lower than his season output in a game environment expected to be high-scoring, given the elevated total of 153.5 points.
High Point guard Kezza Giffa has averaged 14.8 points per game and has cleared 12.5 points in 10 of his past 13 contests. Given Purdue’s weakness defensively - the Boilermakers rank 240th in effective field goal defense - Giffa should be primed for a successful outing, even considering the step up in competition relative to the Panthers’ weak schedule.
FanDuel lists Giffa’s line at 12.5 points with -110 odds on Over, while BetMGM offers +100 odds on Over 13.5 points."Comment -
All four games went over the posted total.
I'm riding that 4-0 over trend.
Creighton-Louisville (on paper) looks like a 152-type game.
Creighton-Louisville OVER 145.5Comment -
I like High Point first half +4.5 and sprinkle a bit on the ML.
maybe they pull off the upset.
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1:30 PM ET - #14 Montana vs #3 Wisconsin picks from SBR's Mike Spector:
Wisconsin -16.5 (-115 BetMGM)
"Montana is shooting 50.2% from the floor this season, second-best in D-I. The Grizzlies rank in the 91st percentile in rim rate, 97th percentile in finishing efficiency, and get 51.8% of their points from 2-pointers.
However, Wisconsin’s drop coverage allows a rim rate in the first percentile. Thus, Montana will have to connect from deep more often than it is used to. Based on their non-conference schedule that involved games against Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State, the Grizzlies will not be up to the task from a shooting perspective.
In those three games against NCAA Tournament teams, Montana made just 18-of-68 from 3-point range (26.5%). But I am only making Wisconsin -16.5 a two-star play, as it is not as used to playing in altitude like its opponent."
Te’Jon Sawyer Under 8.5 points (-110 BetMGM)
"Grizzlies forward Te’Jon Sawyer ranks sixth on the team in scoring, averaging 9.2 points per game. Montana’s five leading scorers all are guards, and that is who is going to have to carry the scoring load against Wisconsin’s strong interior defense.
Wisconsin ranks 34th in the country (second in Big Ten play) in 2-point percentage allowed. Sawyer followed up a five-game stretch of posting double figures by not topping nine points in any of the three conference tournament games.
Sawyer scored just six points in each of the two games against NCAA Tournament teams (he did not play against Utah State), and that has me confident in the Badgers’ ability to negate his scoring potential. The best price is at BetMGM, as the Under is juiced as high as -118 at Caesars."Comment -
2:00 PM ET - #16 SIU Edwardsville vs #1 Houston picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer
SIU Edwardsville +29.5 (-110 FanDuel)
"By all accounts a March Madness odds contender, Houston should dominate this game. But doing so to the extent of the massive point spread is another matter.
Houston is obviously capable, having won several games by 29 or more points during the season, including a 31-point win over tournament team BYU. But SIU Edwardsville has an 18-12-1 record against the spread this season, slightly superior to Houston’s 18-16 ATS mark.
SIU Edwardsville lost by a margin greater than this spread only once, and it came against Illinois, which runs the 18th-fastest adjusted tempo in the nation. Unless the underdogs start turning the ball over at a disproportionate rate, Houston’s 360th-paced adjusted tempo should allow SIU Edwardsville (261st in adjusted tempo) to stay within the number."
Ray’Sean Taylor Over 14.5 points (-120 BetMGM)
"It’s unconventional, but I'm riding with Taylor, the leading scorer from the side whose team total doesn’t even scratch 50.
It’s hard to imagine a scorer as prolific as the Cougars' Taylor not showing out in the NCAA Tournament setting, the first tournament appearance in school history. He averaged 19.3 points per game and scored 15+ points in 26 of 33 games this season.
While SIU Edwardsville's low projected scoring total is a risk, I’ll point to the effort of Hofstra point guard Cruz Davis as an example of how things could still break right for Taylor on Thursday. Earlier this season, Houston beat Hofstra 80-44, with Davis scoring 18. Even in a loss, Taylor should shine."Comment -
2:50 PM ET - #16 Alabama State vs #1 Auburn picks from SBR's Phil Wood:
Auburn -31.5 (-110 BetMGM)
"The only thing preventing this from being a five-star play is that 31.5 points is a lot, and the Tigers could bench key players late. That could allow the Hornets to log a backdoor cover. That said, this is the most confident I am in any of the No. 1 seeds to cover the spread.
The Hornets' defense was problematic in their First Four game against the St. Francis Red Flash. They allowed the Red Flash to shoot 50% from the floor and 45.5% from 3-point range. The Hornets only shot 42.9% from the floor and 31% from deep, but they stayed in the game by winning the turnover battle 15-9 and securing 12 offensive rebounds while giving up just three.
Unfortunately for the Hornets, on Thursday, they won’t excel in any of the areas they had success on Tuesday. The Tigers average just 9.2 turnovers per game, sixth-best in the nation, and they’re a very good rebounding team. The Tigers average 83.8 points per game. Look for them to score well over that number as they dominate."
Johni Broome Over 9.5 rebounds (+102 FanDuel)
"The only possible explanation for Broome’s rebounding total being set below his season average is that oddsmakers are assuming he will play limited minutes in a blowout victory. However, even if he barely sees the floor, he should have no problem topping this number against a much smaller opponent.
For example, Broome played just 22 minutes against the Monmouth Hawks earlier this season, but he grabbed 11 rebounds anyway. Against the North Alabama Lions, he grabbed 17 rebounds in 26 minutes, and against the Kent State Golden Flash, he had 12 boards in 28 minutes.
Broome is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game, and while he has recorded single-digit rebounding numbers in blowout wins this season, he’s proven time and time again that he doesn’t need to play a lot to put up great numbers. To get this at better than +100 makes it a five-star play."Comment -
High point getting their butts kicked on the boards. Clean that shit up and they have a good shot. They also need to stop leaving their feet and fouling. Purdue is great at creating fouls by getting in your body and pushing off while shooting.Comment -
3:15 PM ET - #12 McNeese State vs #5 Clemson picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:
Clemson -7.5 (-110 BetMGM)
"But after Wade’s Cowboys lost by 21 points as a 12-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, I see the matchup with Clemson resulting in another letdown with the head coach’s focus potentially shifting to his next landing spot.
McNeese is a physical group, which leads to a potential advantage on the glass, but Clemson’s efficiency on both ends should be enough to overcome it. At 37.2% from three-point range, Clemson is one of the most dangerous outside shooting teams in the field of 68.
McNeese is good but not great in opposing three-point percentage (80th in Division 1) and allows a disproportionately high rate of opposing three-point attempts. Clemson has shorter March Madness odds for various reasons. If they connect from deep at their standard rate, the limited number of possessions in a game featuring two teams that play at slow tempos could be a problem for McNeese."
Chase Hunter Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+100 BetMGM)
"Clemson guard Chase Hunter connected on three or more three-pointers 14 times out of 33 games this season (42.4%) while only averaging 5.5 three-point attempts per game.
Three-point attempts comprise 46.6% of the field goal attempts against McNeese, one of the highest rates in the country. Given his three-point efficiency, this should be a matchup where Hunter lets fly.
Should he get near his 41.2% average, he'll need to shoot about seven threes to cash this prop. I like the chance that it will happen, and BetMGM offers the most competitive price of our best sports betting apps."Comment -
4:05 PM ET - #11 VCU vs #6 BYU picks from SBR's Mike Spector:
VCU +3.5 (-115 BetMGM)
"From an X’s and O’s standpoint and despite BYU having shorter March Madness odds, everything has me leaning VCU’s way in this contrast of styles. The only thing preventing me from making the Rams +3.5 a five-star play is that they are playing at altitude just four days after their conference tournament ended against an altitude-acclimated BYU team.
I expect VCU’s press (it ranks in the 99th percentile in press rate) will give BYU’s turnover-prone guards (BYU ranked 12th in league play in turnover rate) fits.
In addition, VCU allows catch-and-shoot opportunities at an extremely low rate (13th percentile) and ranks in the 91st percentile in efficiency in that metric defensively. That should disrupt BYU’s more finessed half-court style.
I am comfortable paying up slightly in juice for this wager at BetMGM, as VCU is a point lower at +2.5 at FanDuel."
Jack Clark Over 6.5 rebounds (-105 BetMGM)
"Clark is VCU’s leading rebounder at 6.9 per game, and he averages the second-most minutes on the team (28.6 minutes per game).Clark has gone over this projected total in four of the previous eight games, finishing just shy with six rebounds in each of the other four.
VCU is the 12th-best offensive rebounding team in the country, securing 36.7% of its misses.
That should be the Rams’ biggest advantage in this matchup and something head coach Ryan Odom preaches, and Clark should go over this projected total as a result. The best price for this wager is at BetMGM, as Caesars has it juiced to -114."Comment -
Creighton's running Louisville out of Lexington.
I dislike Creighton, they're too cocky for a team that hasn't won anything relevant, and their hot-headed Coach McDermott. But they're (like Xavier) Big East battle-tested, and I may be a Big East homer but fading Big East teams is risky business.
Creighton looked very sharp after a sloppy four-minute start.Comment -
4:35 PM ET - #9 Georgia vs #8 Gonzaga picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:
Georgia +6.5 (-110 BetMGM)
"Gonzaga’s draw as an eight seed despite being one of the 10 best teams in the country according to KenPom is brutal - but nobody suffers from it more than Georgia. For that reason, Gonzaga seems to be the chalky pick to reach the second round, and I’m not disagreeing. But the public love for the Zags has gone so far that I like the points with Georgia.
Georgia faced four NCAA Tournament teams across its past five games, winning three of the four and losing the other by six points. Although eight of Georgia’s 11 Quad 1 losses came by a margin greater than this spread, Gonzaga simply hasn’t performed well enough against the spread (14-19 ATS) for me to believe it will take advantage.
Additionally, Gonzaga has two more Quad 2 losses than Georgia and went 2-3 in non-conference games against NCAA Tournament teams. With a limited scope of how Gonzaga performs against top competition outside the WCC, 6.5 points is too many for me to lay."
Ryan Nembhard Over 8.5 assists (-15 bet365)
"Nembhard is one of the best distributors in college basketball this season, but his assists total at 8.5 is daunting considering the matchup on Thursday. Georgia ranks 58th in the nation in limiting opposing assists, allowing an average of only 11.8 per game.
Nembhard averages nearly 10 assists per game but has been boom or bust in the category lately, falling short of 8.5 dimes in four of his last six contests. The outlier, though, is that Gonzaga has played some lower-scoring games in that stretch.
Nembhard is 17-3 in clearing this assists total in games that go Over 151.5 total points. Since we’re predicting a final score that goes clears that number, we like Nembhard to thrive in spite of Georgia’s ability to limit opposing assists."Comment -
Purdue outrebounded HP 28 to 12 in that first half. Now the refs have called 3 fouls in 8 seconds on one HP player. Insane.Comment -
6:50 PM ET - #15 Wofford vs #2 Tennessee picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:
Tennessee -18.5 (-110 Caesars)
"As the 6 seed, Wofford ran through a SoCon Tournament field that featured several would-be bracket busters in March Madness, so we know the Terriers are scrappy. Only twice all season did Wofford lose by a margin greater than this 18.5-points, with those routs coming at the hands of Duke and Elon.
While Tennessee’s measured pace of play (346th in adjusted tempo) arguably makes blowouts trickier, the Vols have had no problem disposing of Quad 3 teams of Wofford’s ilk by using its stifling defense (3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) to suffocate inferior foes. Wofford ranking 319th in turnover rate won’t help matters.
Wofford is moderately efficient from 3-point range, but that won’t matter in this matchup. The Vols lock down the arc better than any team in the country, allowing just 27.8% of opponent 3-pointers to drop, taking away the great equalizer for many underdogs in the NCAA Tournament."
Felix Okpara Under 5.5 rebounds (-110 BetMGM)
"Wofford ranks 232nd in opposing effective field goal percentage, so we like Tennessee to find success on the offensive end—but that could mean fewer opportunities for the Vols to take advantage of their 28th-best offensive rebounding rate.
Tennessee isn’t a strong unit on the defensive glass, ranking 202nd nationally in defensive rebounding rate. Wofford, meanwhile, is a top-35 squad on both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Terriers allow the 17th-fewest rebounds per game to their opponents across Division 1.
All this to say, we’re looking to identify Tennessee rebounders who could fall short on their props by virtue of the matchup. Okpara is a candidate, given his line is at 5.5 rebounds at BetMGM. That’s a number he’s failed to reach in three of his past four games."Comment -
7:10 PM ET - #10 Arkansas vs #7 Kansas picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:
Arkansas +4.5 (-110 DraftKings)
"The biggest story of this matchup is the 13th meeting of Self and Calipari, who are currently tied at 6-6 all-time. Ultimately, I expect the lower-seeded of the two coaches, Calipari, to cover the spread. The SEC may not traditionally be a basketball conference, but it has been this year, so it’s hard not to reward Arkansas for its tougher conference schedule.
The numbers bear out my faith in the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 31st in T-Rank through games played since February 1, trailing 30th-ranked Kansas by an inconsequential margin. Importantly, the Hogs are 13th in free-throw rate (43.3%) while the Jayhawks are a concerning 316th. In Quad 1 games in that sample, Arkansas (4-4) ranks 20th while Kansas (2-7) ranks 40th.
Those numbers may not mean as much with the Hogs losing forward and leading scorer Adou Thiero, but they’re returning point guard and number two scorer Boogie Fland, so I have faith. I would make this game much closer to a pick ’em, so pocketing the 4.5 points—or taking the plus-money value on the moneyline—are the best bets to make here."
Zeke Mayo Under 14.5 points (-105 Fanatics)
"I am not in love with this player prop pick, but our best sports betting sites didn’t have any open lines for the Razorbacks as of press time, so we’ll trust this lively Arkansas defense to limit Mayo’s scoring output. Mayo is averaging 14.5 points per game this year, so fading him against the Hogs, who rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, should prove sharp.
I have two reservations with this play, the first being Arkansas’ swift pace and the second being personnel changes. But I’d rather fade Mayo, who is more of a perimeter player, than big man Hunter Dickinson with big man Thiero on the shelf. If Arkansas’ interior defense struggles without him, that could help Mayo stay under by siphoning away his perimeter looks.
It helps that we can get the under 14.5 at Fanatics for -105, while most of our other best sports betting apps have it listed at -120."Comment -
7:25 PM ET - #13 Yale vs #4 Texas A&M picks from SBR's Phil Wood:
Texas A&M -7.5 (-105 BetMGM)
"Roughly 64% of the public is backing Yale against the spread. The Bulldogs’ 3-point shooting is incredible, as they make 38.5% of their shots from beyond the arc. They will have an advantage from deep in this game, as the Aggies rank 154th nationally in 3-point percentage allowed.
However, the 3-point line is the only area where the Bulldogs have the advantage. The Aggies have lost five of their last seven entering the tournament, but during that span, they also knocked off the Auburn Tigers and all of their losses were to tournament teams.
The Aggies are allowing only 67.9 points per game despite playing against SEC opponents all season. The Bulldogs are averaging 81 points per contest, but I fully expect them to struggle against a defense that has held great offenses in check for most of the season. And if their defense struggles, the Aggies’ offense, which is averaging over 74 points per game, will do enough to help them pull away late and cover this spread."
John Poulakidas Over 16.5 points (-125 BetMGM)
"I’d love to take Poulakidas to hit the Over on his 3-pointers made, but the price for him to go Over 2.5 is -155 at best. That price is too high, even if I’m very confident in Poulakidas’s shooting in this game. There are no alternate lines available yet, but keep an eye out, and feel free to take Over 3.5 for +120 or better on game day.
With his 3-pointers currently off the table, I’ll confidently take Poulakidas to score at least 17 in this game. Earlier this season when Yale battled the Purdue Boilermakers, Poulakidas went 5-of-12 from 3-point range, ultimately scoring 23 points. He enters the NCAA Tournament having scored 25 points in two of his last three games, including in the Ivy League championship.
The price for this Over is expensive, and I expect this total to climb to 17.5 before long. Take this number up to 20.5, as the Aggies’ 3-point defense isn’t good enough to slow down the Bulldogs’ leading scorer."Comment -
7:35 PM ET - #11 Drake vs #6 Missouri picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:
Drake +6.5 (-110 Caesars)
"While I am high on the SEC, which just sent a record-setting 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament, the conference will lose some of its first-round games, and one of those could be Thursday’s battle between Missouri and Drake. Since February 1, the Bulldogs are the slowest in pace nationally, playing at a pace that is a whopping 15% slower than the national average.
Shooting variance gains significance in slow-paced games, which can help lower-seeded teams like Drake cover or even score upsets. So, even though Missouri sits at an impressive 14th in T-Rank since February 1, largely due to its second-place ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency, I still think the Bulldogs have a good shot.
It helps that Drake is a well-disciplined team, ranking 15th in free-throw rate since February 1. Missouri may rank 28th in free-throw rate through that sample, too, but the school also ranks 341st in opponent free-throw rate. Missouri also ranked seventh-worst in personal fouls committed per road game this season.
In a slow-paced game, extra trips to the stripe matter that much more. Back the Bulldogs to cover and possibly win."
Bennett Stirtz Over 17.5 points (-115 DraftKings)
"My first instinct when handicapping the Missouri vs. Drake player prop markets was to get the Under for a Missouri player, but no books are taking action on those lines yet, so I’ll settle for a surprisingly cheap Bennett Stirtz Over.
Stirtz is Drake’s leading scorer, averaging 19.1 points per game, and he now finds himself in what is probably a pace-up spot versus an SEC offense.
While it’ll be tricky for Stirtz to replicate his strong play against a higher-caliber opponent, Missouri is only 104th in adjusted defensive rating since February 1, and it's 343rd in opponent shooting percentage from inside the arc. Add in the free throws that Missouri’s defense is likely to give him, and Stirtz should soar over the 17.5."Comment -
Clemson has 12 pts in 1H???? Louisville and now Clemson... ACC sucks
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9:25 PM ET - #10 Utah State vs #7 UCLA picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:
Utah State +5.5 (-110 Caesars)
"One of the better 3-point shooting teams in the tournament field (35.8%), Utah State is being miscast as a sizable underdog to a UCLA group that has laid more than its fair share of eggs throughout the season.
The Bruins went 9-8 in Quad 1 games but lost in one of their two Quad 3 affairs while dropping another contest in Quad 2. UCLA’s resume was still stronger than Utah State’s coming into this tournament, but the Aggies have the makeup to push the Bruins.
Utah State’s 17th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom helps cover a lot of warts; the Aggies have the best AdjO of any double-digit seed in the field. Plus, any favorite that struggles to knock down free throws—UCLA is 70.3% on the season, 68.6% over its last three games—could be tempting fate when it comes to closing a 5.5-point spread."
Mason Falslev Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-110 BetMGM)
"Utah State fires off 3-point attempts at a rate among the top 100 teams in the country, as 3-point tries account for 42.3% of its field goal attempts. Knocking down 35.8% of its deep-range attempts, the Aggies rank 67th in the nation in the category.
After attempting a season-high 10 threes (draining three of them) in the Mountain West Tournament against Colorado State, Falslev should get more looks against the Bruins. UCLA’s opposing 3-point percentage falls outside the top 125, and Bruins opponents fire away from deep on 44.8% of their field goal attempts."Comment
