(WNCAA) Women's Bask - 2025 tournament Notes

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Separate thread for the Women's hoops:
*Nashy has some good ideas.
*I haven't been following it that closely this year.

A few basic thoughts:
1) That UConn blowout win @SoCarol looks so good now.
...Where did that come from?
2) Big Dogs were good ATS last year. This year, looks more like Big Favs rolling.
3) My view this year is that the Hvy-wts are prepping themselves for some huge tilts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/date/20250324

See what I said (above). I believe Favs went 8-0 SU yesterday. And most by margin.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sweet 16: no seed lower than 5 remains. Similar to the Men's NCAA Sweet 16.

[stevenash]

Geno Auriemma in tears after postgame moment with Paige Bueckers

Azzi Fudd passing on WNBA draft for another year at UConn - ESPN

The gals all want to play for Geno, who turned 71 Sunday.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Geno Auriemma in tears after postgame moment with Paige Bueckers

Azzi Fudd passing on WNBA draft for another year at UConn - ESPN

The gals all want to play for Geno, who turned 71 Sunday.

Nashy, the Huskies were robbed last year. Should have made the Final game.

To Geno's credit, he's prodded Paige. When he says something, it's to get the most out of her.

Could be a story-book finish. Will be rooting for UConn. Would have to win three huge games.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Juju Watkins done with an ACL. That’s tough especially for a USC team I thought could make some noise.

[stevenash]

Juju Watkins done with an ACL. That’s tough especially for a USC team I thought could make some noise.

Despite the devastating injury to JuJu, USC is installed an early 1.5 skinny favorite.
I saw that. JuJu pushed up court full throttle and pinballed off of a couple of Miss. State defenders caught her knee there in the middle of that and ripped the ACL . Devastating. She's everything that's right about college sports.

UConn opens up a whopping -14.5 over #3 seeded Oklahoma.
I guess Vegas believes in UConn.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Juju Watkins done with an ACL. That’s tough especially for a USC team I thought could make some noise.

Didn't know that about JuJu. Maybe it's uConn's year.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Despite the devastating injury to JuJu, USC is installed an early 1.5 skinny favorite.
I saw that. JuJu pushed up court full throttle and pinballed off of a couple of Miss. State defenders caught her knee there in the middle of that and ripped the ACL . Devastating. She's everything that's right about college sports.

UConn opens up a whopping -14.5 over #3 seeded Oklahoma.
I guess Vegas believes in UConn.

Women have much smaller ACL’s than men. It’s a bad recipe for knee injuries, which are prevalent in women’s basketball. I’ve seen so many HS girls with blown ACL’s I’ve lost count.

Heres more info on why smaller ACLs are not a good thing for women.

• Why the Difference Matters:
  • A smaller ACL, combined with a smaller femoral notch (the area where the ACL is housed), can increase the risk of ACL injury.
  • Women's knees are also more likely to tilt inward while the ankles remain spaced apart, which puts more stress on the ACL.
  • Women tend to have a stiffer leg when landing from a jump and do not bend as deeply as their male counterparts, which also increases the risk for knee injury.
  • Women rely more on their quadriceps—the muscles at the front of the thigh—which also increases the risk of ACL injuries.
• Other Factors:
  • Women's joints, including the knee, generally have more looseness and range of motion than men's.
  • Women also often have less muscle mass around the knee, contributing to more instability, which can lead to a ligament tear if the ligament gets overstretched.
  • Women tend to have wider hips and are slightly knock-kneed (their thighbones tend to curve inward from the hip to the knee) and this alignment can create added stress on the joints.
  • Women's muscles respond differently during jumping activities than men's—specifically showing less activation when landing.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Didn't know that about JuJu. Maybe it's uConn's year.

Lot of good teams left. Going to be heartbreaking for a lot of them.

[stevenash]

^
Good stuff Mac.

I'm 5' 8" and 178 lbs, with an incredibly low center of gravity.
I caught for 10 years, I know a thing or two about leg pain.
My orthopedic (who's going to replace my hip in September) told me that my left hip is "so ravished that he has to cut from the back.
of the leg.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not yet betting em. But I may have some insights on a few games:
*How good is JuJu? USC only a 1-pt Fav vs Kan St.

...I have a very specific view on players. Especially scoring Guards.
...Sometimes, their absence is overrated. The ball moves more freely. Other players contribute to team play.
...In the NBA I believe this for sure. Shooting guard is the most overrated position. They score a lot, b/c they shoot a lot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not yet betting em. But I may have some insights on a few games:
*How good is JuJu? USC only a 1-pt Fav vs Kan St.

...I have a very specific view on players. Especially scoring Guards.
...Sometimes, their absence is overrated. The ball moves more freely. Other players contribute to team play.
...In the NBA I believe this for sure. Shooting guard is the most overrated position. They score a lot, b/c they shoot a lot.

I retract my stmt. I dug into the #s more. JuJu is a dynamic player, she'll be hard to replace.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Oklahoma +14.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...UConn is a big-name program w/ a big-name player and a big-name HC.
...Huskies have been rolling. Very easy to back them.
...Long-travel game to west coast. Double-digit Fav three time-zones away.
...The win @South Carolina looks like an outlier to me. Can't believe they won by that margin.
...Sooners just throttled Iowa. Okla has played a much tougher SOS, will feel like they can compete here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Oklahoma +14.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...UConn is a big-name program w/ a big-name player and a big-name HC.
...Huskies have been rolling. Very easy to back them.
...Long-travel game to west coast. Double-digit Fav three time-zones away.
...The win @South Carolina looks like an outlier to me. Can't believe they won by that margin.
...Sooners just throttled Iowa. Okla has played a much tougher SOS, will feel like they can compete here.

Adding one unit on OKLA +14.5 1.98: 1 to win .98
...Boomer-Sooner.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

YTD: -3.00/3
...Sooners looked great for a half. Smoked in 2h.

Two small plays for the Regional Finals:
1* LSU +5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...I do put stock in the SEC pedigree. And I like getting this coach as a Dog.

1* USC +14 1.95: 1 to win 95
...This is a huge injury-adjustment for the Watkins injury. Too much IMHO.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

YTD: -3.00/3
...Sooners looked great for a half. Smoked in 2h.

Two small plays for the Regional Finals:
1* LSU +5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...I do put stock in the SEC pedigree. And I like getting this coach as a Dog.

1* USC +14 1.95: 1 to win 95
...This is a huge injury-adjustment for the Watkins injury. Too much IMHO.

Adding a unit on each:
LSU +5 1.94: 1 to win .94
USC +14 1.95: 1 to win .95

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Upset threat: Duke leads SoCarol by 1.

[stevenash]

Chucky, did you see the opener for tomorrow's USC-UConn game?

Huskies -13.5
Wow, wow, I was expecting -7.5 max.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, did you see the opener for tomorrow's USC-UConn game?

Huskies -13.5
Wow, wow, I was expecting -7.5 max.

Yes, see above. I thought it was way too big of an injury correction.

USC did beat UCLA 2x this season. +14 for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, did you see the opener for tomorrow's USC-UConn game?

Huskies -13.5
Wow, wow, I was expecting -7.5 max.

Also, to your point. I don't claim to be a Women's NCAA expert.

Watkins is a very talented player. But she's what I call a hi usage player. She has the ball in her hands a lot. So, she's going to get Shots. She's going to score Points.

This is virtually the same line as the Okla game. And USC has to be a notch above Okla.

Howell takes JuJu's spot. And I think she's pretty good. Had a nice game last out.

[stevenash]

Paige is playing chess while the rest are playing checkers; she's not from this universe.
Bueckers is draining everything. She's splashing from 38 feet out.
You ever watch Paige on defense, she's the first one back on a missed shot, and she sprints 80 feet.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Paige is playing chess while the rest are playing checkers; she's not from this universe.
Bueckers is draining everything. She's splashing from 38 feet out.
You ever watch Paige on defense, she's the first one back on a missed shot, and she sprints 80 feet.

Geno was mad @her last game. Didn't like the defense in the 1h.

[stevenash]

Geno was mad @her last game. Didn't like the defense in the 1h.

That changed in a hurry.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a unit on each:
LSU +5 1.94: 1 to win .94
USC +14 1.95: 1 to win .95

Damn, USC lands on 14. Very late pts, would have hung the +14.5.

YTD = -5.00/7. Bad luck on these.

[stevenash]

That last free throw from Sarah was huge.
If she had bricked that last free throw, the books would have had to pay the USC side.
I passed; I didn't want to lay 13.5, and the game closed at -14.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That last free throw from Sarah was huge.
If she had bricked that last free throw, the books would have had to pay the USC side.
I passed; I didn't want to lay 13.5, and the game closed at -14.

Yeah, I feel like I was unlucky on all three plays I posted. Better to be lucky than good.

The S/U Favorite trend on these Hoops games (Men & Women) is something else. What happened to the good old days of the Upset?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5* South Carolina +6.5 1.95: 5 to win 4.75

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5* South Carolina +6.5 1.95: 5 to win 4.75

...I'm not buying this #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

...I'm not buying this #.

...Not for a second.
...Goes back to the 2/16 game where UConn rolled South Carolina by 29. I view that result as an outlier, way beyond any normal variance.
...UConn has long been the name program in this sport. They have a big-name HC and a star player. Theme is now redemption and going out the right way in her last game.
...South Carolina has become the premier program in recent years. The 2/16 game left a sour taste.
...Staley has talked about feeling over-looked. They are using the press as a motivational tool.
...This # is bloated. I see this being a much tighter contest.
...And I think UConn's path has been favorable. First two games were walkovers. Okla played w/ them for a half. UConn beat USC w/o JuJu. And that was UCLA's first Final Four appearance in program history.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, Cocks look like shit.

[stevenash]

OK, Cocks look like shit.

Huskies aren't hitting on all cylinders either, but they are doing a better job than SC so far.

Sarah Strong is a beast who has been getting it done all season, yet nobody mentions her name.
That's OK Sarah, I see you.

I want to have Azzi Fudd's babies.

20 more minutes.
Let's do this gals.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, nash, you win. How debaucherous will the Huskie post-game party be?

[stevenash]

OK, nash, you win. How debaucherous will the Huskie post-game party be?

They're pretty tame.
Nobody likes to go to Hartford, it's a pain in the ass to get to, once there it's even a bigger pain in the ass to park.

Geno is now 11-1 in title games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Damn, USC lands on 14. Very late pts, would have hung the +14.5.

YTD = -5.00/7. Bad luck on these.

Day: -5/5
YTD: -10/12. Had a good year in 2024. Fisted on this women's NCAA tournament.