MLB Futures Picks and Predictions

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 2691

    MLB Futures Picks and Predictions
    The 2025 MLB regular season gets underway this Thursday, March 27th. Let's take a look at some of the futures markets and find some value picks.

    World Series Odds

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    World Series Predictions from SBR's Sean Tomlinson:

    Best Bet: Dodgers (+300 DraftKings)

    "Yes, there can be a lack of sizzle when you back the overwhelming favorite in the World Series market. But this price could look appealing fast.

    A whole lot of wins for the Dodgers are clearly baked into the pricing here from our best sports betting sites, resulting in the wide gap between Los Angeles and the Yankees. Still, a dominant April from a team poised to steamroll in any and every month would lead to the Dodgers rising fast, perhaps even toward minus money.

    Baseball gets weird and random, but it's not hard to see a path toward utter domination early for the loaded Dodgers. Of their 25 games in April, 12 come against the Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Colorado Rockies. All of those teams were at least 10 games below .500 last year, and two lost 100-plus contests (the Marlins and Rockies)."


    Best Value Bet: Mets (+1200 Caesars)

    "A team that already ranked sixth leaguewide last year in home runs added a whole lot of thump in the form of Juan Soto, and retaining Pete Alonso was significant in that regard too.

    ​Offense wasn't the issue for the Mets en route to an NLCS appearance last year, when they ousted the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies before falling to the Dodgers. No, the chip in the armor lied in the bullpen, which ranked 17th with a 4.03 ERA, and was similarly mid-pack in late-and-close situations.

    However, additions to the rotation could take weight off the bullpen and put it in a better position to succeed. Most notably, signing Clay Holmes, the imposing reliever set to convert to a starter while leaning on his lethal sinker."


    Best Long Shot Bet: Royals (+5000 Caesars)

    "​The Kansas City Royals took a gargantuan leap while moving from 56 wins in 2023 to 86 last season and then brushing aside the Baltimore Orioles in two games during the wild-card round.

    The Royals largely rode their shining starting rotation to that success, with that group sitting second in MLB with a 3.55 ERA. They could afford to ship off Brady Singer, and getting Jonathan India in return adds needed pop to a lineup that sat 20th in home runs.

    This is a wager very much based on backing a talented group to get hot late in the season and continue that into the playoffs. And getting to trot out a five-tool dynamo in Bobby Witt Jr. sure helps the Royals in the pursuit of that route.​"
  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 2691

    #2
    MLB Playoff Odds

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    MLB Playoff Picks from SBR's Sean Tomlinson:

    Royals +125 (Caesars)

    "The AL Central sent three teams to the playoffs last year, with the division-winning Cleveland Guardians going alongside the Royals and Tigers in wild-card spots.

    The Royals and Tigers are both priced in this range, but I prefer the former thanks to the fact it features one of the best players in baseball: Bobby Witt Jr.

    The Royals finished with 86 wins last year, a colossal leap after losing 106 games the season prior."


    Mariners -110 (Caesars)

    "The Mariners' pitching staff ended up tied for the MLB lead in ERA last season at 3.49. They surged down the stretch while winning eight of their final 10 contests last season, missing the playoffs by just one game. However, the lineup was dreadful, and it can't possibly be that bad again.

    ​Julio Rodriguez missed time with an ankle injury, too, and he's only one season removed from being considered an MVP candidate. With the Houston Astros looking vulnerable, either the Mariners or Rangers could steal the AL West."


    Red Sox -125 (DraftKings)

    "Excelling in the AL East is always a daunting challenge. But the Red Sox surely aren't going to stay down much longer after missing the playoffs in three straight seasons and posting a record of .500 or lower each time.

    Adding intimidating flamethrower Garrett Crochet will go a long way in that effort. He was one of the best pitchers in the AL last year, missing out on Cy Young consideration simply because the White Sox limited his innings.​

    ​​And offensively, plugging in the latest addition in Bregman to a unit that already sat ninth in runs last season inserts another explosive element to a team that wasn't lacking in that regard. We recently took a deeper dive while looking at the Red Sox World Series odds after the Bregman signing, and their price has shortened slightly at most of our best sports betting sites."
    Comment
    • SBR Andy
      Administrator
      • 02-09-22
      • 2691

      #3
      MLB Win Totals via FanDuel

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      MLB Win Total Predictions from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

      ​Toronto Blue Jays Over 78.5 wins (-115 DraftKings)

      "I used a combination of the regular-season wins projections at FanGraphs and PECOTA to make these predictions. Based on those numbers, this profiles as perhaps my favorite pick of the bunch.

      Our best sports betting sites are severely undervaluing the Blue Jays in this market while setting a win total of just 78.5.

      They won 74 games in 2024 despite Bo Bichette being one of the most useless players in baseball, which surely won't be the case again this season (even if he's marginally better, that's a huge boost). Additionally, the Jays trotted out what was essentially a minor-league lineup plus Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the majority of the latter stages of the season.

      Now they've added Anthony Santander (3.3 fWAR in 2024) and Andres Gimenez (2.8 fWAR) to the team. They're expected to provide the offense with a significant boost of power and speed.

      Based on that, FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to finish with 82 wins, while PECOTA is slotting them third in the AL East with 85.7. If the Jays manage to finish even .500 - which would fall below both of those projections - we'll still cash the Over on this pick.

      Sure, Toronto could trade its star first baseman, as we noted in our Vladimir Guerrero next team odds, but if the Blue Jays do part ways with their best player, they should get some sort of return that includes major-league players ready to help the team win now.

      I'm very willing to bet on a bounce-back campaign from Toronto.​"


      Chicago White Sox Over 53 wins (-120 Caesars)

      "We had this number at 51.5 when we first offered this pick, but, at least at BetMGM, the Chicago White Sox have been one of the most popular bets for those taking the Over on win totals this year. Therefore, this is up to 53 now, but I still like it.

      The White Sox can't possibly be as bad as they were last year, right? Well, that's pretty much what this win total suggests.

      Sure, 54 wins would be 13 more than what Chicago managed in 2024, but it's still seven fewer than the Colorado Rockies put up with the second-worst record in the majors.

      Don't get me wrong. The White Sox are still expected to be the worst team in baseball, but this is just such a low total. We see that based on their win projects of 63 (FanGraphs) and 61.5 (PECOTA).

      Deciding which of our best sports betting apps is the best option to place this bet at depends on how confident you are in the White Sox. This is the lowest total of the bunch, but the Over is also juiced to -120.

      DraftKings offers Over 53.5 at -110 and FanDuel is at 54.5, with the Over at +100. I prefer this total just in case Chicago finishes with exactly 53 wins, and then this will result in a push.​"


      Texas Rangers Over 85.5 wins (-105 BetMGM)

      "Both projection models expect the Texas Rangers to bounce back in a significant way from their disappointing 78-84 campaign, which followed the team's World Series win in 2023. In fact, they're widely expected to win the AL West this year.

      The Rangers didn't make a ton of offseason moves, though the additions of Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will provide the lineup with plenty of pop. This is more about the Rangers being far healthier in 2025.

      Sure, some of these players are injury prone, but let's look at some of the time missed from several of Texas' more important contributors last year:

      - Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle made only three starts each
      - Corey Seager missed 39 games and Wyatt Langford sat out 28
      - Josh Jung and Evan Carter managed to play only 46 and 45 games, respectively

      It all adds up to many more wins than the Rangers totaled last year, as long as the injury bug doesn't decimate them again."


      Miami Marlins Over 62.5 wins (+100 BetMGM)

      "This profiles as one of the trickier picks we're offering, as the Miami Marlins' projection varies across our two sources.

      FanGraphs is forecasting them for a 71-91 season, a nine-win improvement from 2024. However, PECOTA sits at a nearly identical 62.3 wins. Therefore, I'm going to add a bit more of my own analysis for this prediction.

      First and foremost, 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara will return after missing all of the 2024 campaign.

      Additionally, I really liked what I saw from Xavier Edwards last year. He stole 31 bases and accrued 2.2 fWAR in just 70 games, and now Edwards is set to serve as the Marlins' leadoff man this year. Otto Lopez was also a very effective player last season, forming a strong middle-infield pairing with Edwards.

      Also, I know we're on Year 3 or 4 of "the Jesus Sanchez breakout is coming," but I really do think he'll finally break out. His batted-ball data was elite last year, and his numbers in July to October were much better than what he strung together during the first half of the campaign.

      However, that brings us to the risky portion of this pick.

      If the Sanchez breakout comes, or if really anyone plays especially well, the Marlins could trade them prior to the deadline and proceed to trot out the stinkiest lineup known to mankind for the second half of the season. Let's just bank on them winning enough games before they do that, because this is still a very low bar to clear.​"


      St. Louis Cardinals Over 76 wins (-110 Caesars)

      "This is up there with the Blue Jays as my favorite pick of the bunch.

      It's not that I think the Cardinals are especially good, but they continue to play in a division that lacks an outright star-studded team. The schedule is more balanced than it used to be, but that still plays a role, and the team really isn't that bad.

      Even if the Cards trade Nolan Arenado as the rumors suggest they will, there's still a ton of talent in their lineup.

      Masyn Winn was fantastic during his rookie campaign, and Brendan Donovan is a very productive and versatile player who accrued 3.2 fWAR in 2024. Also, Ivan Herrera looks like a potential star catcher in the making (and gets the benefit of being teammates with Willson Contreras), and Sonny Gray has been one of MLB's most consistent starters for the last six years.

      Similar to the Blue Jays' total, this feels like a strangely low bar to clear for an organization that's failed to go Over 75.5 wins only once since the turn of the millennium.​"


      Arizona Diamondbacks Over 86.5 wins (-110 bet365)

      "This is one of those that you'll wish you got in sooner, as the Arizona Diamondbacks' win total has increased the most of any team since opening at BetMGM.

      With everyone so focused on the Los Angeles Dodgers - for good reason, to be fair, as you see in the World Series odds - we're seeing some value on the Over for another team in the NL West.

      The 89-win Diamondbacks last year lost first baseman Christian Walker, but they replaced him with Josh Naylor, who isn't quite as good but is still a quality player.

      Additionally, they added Corbin Burnes to an already strong rotation, and the baseball world is expecting a massive bounce back from Corbin Carroll, who put up a first half to forget last year. He looked much more like the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year in the second half (.212/.301/.334 slash line with five home runs in the first half vs. .258/.351/.568 with 17 long balls in the second).

      Arizona's win projections are sitting right around this number, but this team has overperformed expectations for two straight years after being the worst club in baseball as recently as 2021. The D-Backs will continue to shock everyone and finish with upward of 90 victories this season.​"​
      Comment
      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 2691

        #4
        MLB MVP Odds

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        MLB MVP Picks from SBR's Sean Tomlinson:

        Best Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+450 DraftKings)

        "Aaron Judge has been the king in the AL recently in a few ways, including taking two of the past three MVP awards.

        That gives him an uphill battle already in 2025 against voter fatigue, which shouldn't exist but sadly does. Combine that with the usual health landmines Judge needs to navigate (he's played 150-plus games just three times), and there's an opportunity for a challenger to emerge. Or rather in the case of Witt, maintain the ever-present pressure.

        Witt is only marginally behind Judge in the AL by the odds, and for good reason. He excels at a premium defensive position as a shortstop, and the immensely athletic talent has now put together two straight 30-30 seasons, including being just one year removed from finishing fourth leaguewide with 49 steals.

        He's been lurking for a few campaigns now, and his time could be coming.​"


        Best Value Bet: Mookie Betts (+1300 BetMGM)

        "Betts was firmly in the NL MVP race this past season before an injury derailed that bid while limiting his year to 116 games.

        But Betts produced impressively in that limited sample while still hitting 19 home runs and finishing fifth in the NL with an .863 OPS. He doesn't run on the base paths as much as earlier in his career, but Betts still swiped 16 bases last year too, matching his highest total since 2019.

        He's won the AL MVP once, and has finished second in NL voting twice, most recently in 2023 when Betts smacked a career-high 39 home runs.​"


        Best Long Shot Bet: Rafael Devers (+3000 BetMGM)

        "Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is temping here too due to the baseball launcher now all but certain to hit free agency and therefore getting contract-year motivation. But the Toronto Blue Jays very possibly being out of contention might hurt his cause, though Vlad could be dealt before the trade deadline if they're out of it enough.

        Still, the +3000 odds for Devers at BetMGM are far more alluring than the +1700 for Guerrero. And although he may not always do it at a high level, Devers plays a more critical defensive position at third than Vlad does at first.

        Devers also plays for a clearly rising contender in the MLB playoff odds after the Boston Red Sox made several key offseason additions, including Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet. He routinely hits laser beams, with an average exit velocity that's ranked among the top 5% leaguewide in three straight seasons. And a healthy Devers can hit 30-plus homers, as he has three times before."​
        Comment
        • SBR Andy
          Administrator
          • 02-09-22
          • 2691

          #5
          MLB Cy Young Odds

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          • SBR Andy
            Administrator
            • 02-09-22
            • 2691

            #6
            MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

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            • SBR Andy
              Administrator
              • 02-09-22
              • 2691

              #7
              MLB Home Run Leader Odds

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              Home Run Leader players to watch from SBR's Sean Tomlinson:

              Juan Soto (+2800 DraftKings)

              "A move across town to the New York Mets means Juan Soto no longer gets to benefit from the short porch at Yankee Stadium for half his games. He goes from a home stadium that allowed the third-most long balls last year to one that sits in the middle at 15th.

              The friendly confines of Yankee Stadium were surely a factor in Soto's power surge last year. But his 41 homers in 2024 weren't significantly higher than the outfielder's 35 in 2023 while playing for the San Diego Padres, and Petco Park ranked 12th in homers last season.

              The four-time All-Star has been one of the league's premier all-around hitters for a while now, and his top-tier plate discipline is a main reason why. He's never lacked for power of course, but it's difficult to project just how much his surge will continue after Soto's first two 35-plus long ball seasons came during his eight and ninth MLB campaigns.

              But only four hitters clubbed 40-plus homers last year, one of which was also then deemed worthy of a 15-year contract worth $765 million as one of the best players on the planet. And you're getting him here at a price that pays $280 on a $10 bet."


              Brent Rooker (+3000 DraftKings)

              "This market is rooted in long shots rising up. Judge is a clear exception to that recently, but the history of MLB home run leaders features plenty of players who began the year with very lengthy odds (see below).

              And if you're going to sprinkle a little on a long-shot candidate, make it a guy who sells out for the exact outcome you want.

              Brent Rooker hammered 30-plus homers for the second straight year in 2024, ending up with a career-high 39 to finish tied for fifth leaguewide. He did that over 145 games too, and the Oakland Athletics will also be moving away from the homer wasteland that was Oakland Coliseum.

              And his powerful season came during a year when he ranked in the bottom 10% in strikeout rate.​"
              ​​
              Comment
              • SBR Andy
                Administrator
                • 02-09-22
                • 2691

                #8
                Be sure to use SBR's MLB Props Tool to get the best odds on all of your futures picks.

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                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65032

                  #9
                  The Red Sox are stacked. If the pitching stays healthy, they'll pay off handsomely.

                  Zone in on pitching staffs, SD has it, so does KC, pitching usually wins.
                  Comment
                  • SBR Andy
                    Administrator
                    • 02-09-22
                    • 2691

                    #10
                    MLB player futures betting insights from BetMGM:

                    AL MVP
                    Highest Ticket%: Bobby Witt Jr. 21.2%
                    Highest Handle%: Bobby Witt Jr. 26.3%
                    Biggest Liability: Julio Rodriguez
                    Odds leader: Aaron Judge & Bobby Witt Jr. +300

                    AL Cy Young
                    Highest Ticket%: Garrett Crochet 10.0%
                    Highest Handle%: Garrett Crochet 15.8%
                    Biggest Liability: Gavin Williams
                    Odds leader: Tarik Skubal & Garrett Crouchet +350

                    AL Rookie of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Jacob Wilson 15.6%
                    Highest Handle%: Jacob Wilson 29.1%
                    Biggest Liability: Jacob Wilson
                    Odds leader: Jason Dominguez +400

                    AL Comeback Player of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Mike Trout 28.0%
                    Highest Handle%: Mike Trout 47.7%
                    Biggest Liability: Mike Trout
                    Odds leader: Mike Trout +300

                    AL Reliever of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Andres Munoz & Devin Williams 13.6%
                    Highest Handle%: Andres Munoz 20.5%
                    Biggest Liability: Tyler Holton
                    Odds leader: Emmanuel Clase +300

                    AL Manager of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Matt Quatraro 16.0%
                    Highest Handle%: Dan Wilson 17.9%
                    Biggest Liability: Matt Quatraro
                    Odds leader: AJ Hinch & Dan Wilson +500

                    NL MVP
                    Highest Ticket%: Elly De La Cruz 20.8%
                    Highest Handle%: Shohei Ohtani 51.0%
                    Biggest Liability: Elly De La Cruz
                    Odds leader: Shohei Ohtani +150

                    NL Cy Young
                    Highest Ticket%: Zack Wheeler 9.2%
                    Highest Handle%: Zack Wheeler 10.1%
                    Biggest Liability: Roki Sasaki
                    Odds leader: Paul Skenes +210

                    NL Rookie of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Roki Sasaki 13.9%
                    Highest Handle%: Roki Sasaki 24.2%
                    Biggest Liability: Quinn Matthews
                    Odds leader: Roki Sasaki +250

                    NL Comeback Player of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Ronald Acuna Jr. 26.6%
                    Highest Handle%: Ronald Acuna Jr. 42.4%
                    Biggest Liability: Ronald Acuna Jr.
                    Odds leader: Ronald Acuna Jr. +250

                    NL Reliever of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: AJ Puk & Tanner Scott 18.2%
                    Highest Handle%: Tanner Scott 36.7%
                    Biggest Liability: AJ Puk
                    Odds leader: Edwin Diaz +400

                    NL Manager of the Year
                    Highest Ticket%: Terry Francona 41.4%
                    Highest Handle%: Terry Francona 30.2%
                    Biggest Liability: Torey Lovullo
                    Odds leader: Terry Francona +400
                    Comment
                    • SBR Andy
                      Administrator
                      • 02-09-22
                      • 2691

                      #11
                      MLB division odds betting insights from BetMGM:

                      Most bet teams to win division (tickets)
                      • Reds +450
                      • Tigers +250
                      • Red Sox +250

                      Most bet teams to win division (money)
                      • Cubs +115
                      • Red Sox +250
                      • Reds +450

                      AL East
                      Favorites: Yankees +145
                      Highest Ticket%: Red Sox 46.3%
                      Highest Handle%: Red Sox 56.6%
                      Biggest Liability: Red Sox

                      AL Central
                      Favorites: Twins +210
                      Highest Ticket%: Tigers 32.4%
                      Highest Handle%: Tigers 36.7%
                      Biggest Liability: Tigers

                      AL West
                      Favorites: Astros +160
                      Highest Ticket%: Rangers 36.6%
                      Highest Handle%: Rangers 43.2%
                      Biggest Liability: Angels

                      NL East
                      Favorites: Braves +115
                      Highest Ticket%: Mets 25.8%
                      Highest Handle%: Braves 35.3%
                      Biggest Liability: Nationals

                      NL Central
                      Favorites: Cubs +115
                      Highest Ticket%: Reds 43.7%
                      Highest Handle%: Cubs 56.0%
                      Biggest Liability: Reds

                      NL West
                      Favorites: Dodgers -600
                      Highest Ticket%: Diamondbacks 32.2%
                      Highest Handle%: Dodgers 66.5%
                      Biggest Liability: Rockies
                      Comment
                      • SBR Andy
                        Administrator
                        • 02-09-22
                        • 2691

                        #12
                        MLB regular season stat leader betting insights from BetMGM:

                        Home Run Leader
                        Favorites: Aaron Judge +260
                        Highest Ticket%: Brent Rooker 16.5%
                        Highest Handle%: Brent Rooker 17.5%
                        Biggest Liability: Brent Rooker

                        Strikeout Leader
                        Favorites: Paul Skenes +300
                        Highest Ticket%: Paul Skenes 11.9%
                        Highest Handle%: Paul Skenes 16.9%
                        Biggest Liability: Cole Ragans

                        RBI Leader
                        Favorites: Aaron Judge +700
                        Highest Ticket%: Kyle Schwarber 35.9%
                        Highest Handle%: Kyle Schwarber 35.9%
                        Biggest Liability: Kyle Schwarber

                        Stolen Base Leader
                        Favorites: Elly De La Cruz -130
                        Highest Ticket%: Ronald Acuna Jr. 17.3%
                        Highest Handle%: Ronald Acuna Jr. 22.0%
                        Biggest Liability: Ronald Acuna Jr.

                        Hits Leader
                        Favorites: Bobby Witt Jr +400
                        Highest Ticket%: Bobby Witt Jr 16.0%
                        Highest Handle%: Bobby Witt Jr 46.6%
                        Biggest Liability: Bobby Witt Jr

                        Doubles Leader
                        Favorites: Jarren Duran +700
                        Highest Ticket%: Bobby Witt Jr. 19.2%
                        Highest Handle%: Alex Bregman 20.5%
                        Biggest Liability: Seiya Suzuki

                        Triples Leader
                        Favorites: Corbin Carroll +400
                        Highest Ticket%: Elly De La Cruz 22.1%
                        Highest Handle%: Elly De La Cruz 16.6%
                        Biggest Liability: Elly De La Cruz
                        Comment
                        • SBR Andy
                          Administrator
                          • 02-09-22
                          • 2691

                          #13
                          MLB playoff odds betting insights from BetMGM:

                          Most bet teams to MAKE playoffs (tickets)
                          1. Reds +240
                          2. Diamondbacks -115
                          3. Red Sox -155

                          Most bet teams to MAKE playoffs (handle)
                          1. Yankees -220
                          2. Tigers +110
                          3. Red Sox -155

                          Most bet teams to MISS playoffs (tickets)
                          1. Guardians -150
                          2. Padres -125
                          3. Brewers -130

                          Most bet teams to MISS playoffs (handle)
                          1. Guardians -150
                          2. Padres -125
                          3. Twins -120
                          Comment
                          • DwightShrute
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-17-09
                            • 102017

                            #14
                            there's nothing like opening day.

                            Comment
                            • SBR Andy
                              Administrator
                              • 02-09-22
                              • 2691

                              #15
                              MLB futures betting splits from DraftKings:

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                              Comment
                              • SBR Andy
                                Administrator
                                • 02-09-22
                                • 2691

                                #16
                                Preseason home run parlay from SBR's C Jackson Cowart:

                                ⚾ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit 30+ HRs (-178)
                                ⚾ Mark Vientos to hit 30+ HRs (-102)
                                ⚾ Cal Raleigh to hit 30+ HRs (+104)
                                ⚾ Jake Burger to hit 30+ HRs (+142)
                                ⚾ Oneil Cruz to hit 30+ HRs (+176)

                                Wager $10 → Win $411.40
                                Wager $50 → Win $2,057.00


                                Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit 30+ HRs

                                "Every good parlay needs an anchor leg, and we're hitching our wagon to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of the first official contract year of his MLB career.

                                ​Dating back to his 48-HR season in 2021, Guerrero has cleared this mark in three of his last four seasons. The lone exception came in 2023, when he won the Home Run Derby and still hit 26 dingers despite a career-worst .277 BABIP and subpar .264 average.

                                The four-time All-Star shook that off last season by hitting .323 with 30 home runs behind a 54.9% hard-hit rate - his best mark since that MVP-worthy season in 2021. If Vladdy wants to cash in on a $500 million contract ahead of next season, he should clear this mark with ease.​"


                                Mark Vientos to hit 30+ HRs

                                "Mark Vientos isn't quite a household name outside of Queens, but that might not remain the case for long after the 26-year-old slugger exploded onto the scene in 2024 - hitting 27 home runs in just 111 games with a .516 slugging percentage and .837 OPS. Those would have ranked in the top 20 among qualified hitters had he played more.

                                The Mets third baseman added five more home runs in 13 playoff games for good measure, showcasing the same plate discipline and strong barrel rate that helped fuel his breakout in the first place. There's a reason he's considered the potential long-term answer at the hot corner ... and it's not because of his defense.

                                You might be skeptical of the small sample size, but the eye test and advanced metrics both point toward Vientos as a legit slugger. So do his -150 odds for this bet at DraftKings, which imply a 60% hit rate for something that we can target at near-even odds at FanDuel."


                                Cal Raleigh to hit 30+ HRs


                                "​Even after the Mariners signed him to an extension worth over $100 million earlier this week, Cal Raleigh remains perhaps the most underrated catcher in baseball. He's led the position with a combined 91 home runs over the last three years, and he's blasted 30 or more in each of the last two seasons. (He had 27 home runs in just 119 games in 2022.)

                                ​Raleigh should get every opportunity to rake in the heart of Seattle's lineup even if he doesn't make much contact - he's hit .222 over the last three years but still nearly ranks in the top 50 with a .475 slugging percentage in that stretch. It's hard to ignore these plus-money odds on a third straight season with 30-plus homers."


                                Jake Burger to hit 30+ HRs

                                "Despite having one of the best names in baseball, Jake Burger remains supremely underrated for someone who ranks among the league leaders in bat speed and barrel rate over the last two seasons.

                                He hit 34 home runs in 2023 and knocked out 29 more in 2024 in four fewer games, and he'll be an everyday starter for the Rangers after they traded for him to be their top first baseman in 2025. Four of the six main projection models at Fangraphs have Burger hitting 30 home runs, and the ones that don't have him playing fewer than 140 games.

                                Given that he's dealing at -105 via DraftKings to hit 30 homers - which implies a better than 50% chance of him doing so - I love the value we're getting on Burger's odds at FanDuel to boost our HR parlay."


                                Oneil Cruz to hit 30+ HRs

                                "Here's a list of every MLB player with a better average exit velocity than Oneil Cruz: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. That's it. Only Giancarlo Stanton has a better average bat speed, and none featured a longer average home run distance (422 feet) than the Pirates' young star last season.

                                ​So why is he dealing at such long odds to eclipse 30 home runs? Because he struck out on 30.2% of his plate appearances last year and benefitted from a .347 BABIP. Some of that is a result of how freaking hard he hits the ball, which is how he hit 21 home runs in 146 games last year despite nearly half of his balls in play hitting the infield dirt.

                                If the risk is too high, you can parlay the other four picks together at +1426 odds, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $142.60 profit. I'm willing to bet on the talent here and buy Cruz at a relative dip ahead of what should be a monster campaign - while nearly tripling our potential return by adding him to this parlay."​
                                Comment
                                • mjsuax13
                                  Moderator
                                  • 03-14-15
                                  • 24639

                                  #17
                                  Andy, here are the futures I have placed. Playing daily baseball can be the ultimate grind so I'm mixing in futures and spot plays this year. Here is what I have placed already:

                                  Detroit Tigers OVER 84 wins -115
                                  Yankees OVER 89.5 wins +100
                                  Royals to make the playoffs +113
                                  Royals to win AL Central +300
                                  Phillies to win NL East +190
                                  Royals to win World Series +4000 (why the hell not?)
                                  Dodgers to win World Series +240
                                  Yankees to win AL East +140

                                  All a 1 unit play.
                                  Comment
                                  • SBR Andy
                                    Administrator
                                    • 02-09-22
                                    • 2691

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by mjsuax13
                                    Andy, here are the futures I have placed. Playing daily baseball can be the ultimate grind so I'm mixing in futures and spot plays this year. Here is what I have placed already:

                                    Detroit Tigers OVER 84 wins -115
                                    Yankees OVER 89.5 wins +100
                                    Royals to make the playoffs +113
                                    Royals to win AL Central +300
                                    Phillies to win NL East +190
                                    Royals to win World Series +4000 (why the hell not?)
                                    Dodgers to win World Series +240
                                    Yankees to win AL East +140

                                    All a 1 unit play.
                                    I like it MJ. Hopefully your Tigers can take another step and be in the mix in the AL. Definitely gonna get down to Comerica to see them in action!
                                    Comment
                                    • mjsuax13
                                      Moderator
                                      • 03-14-15
                                      • 24639

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by SBR Andy

                                      I like it MJ. Hopefully your Tigers can take another step and be in the mix in the AL. Definitely gonna get down to Comerica to see them in action!
                                      Andy, the problem is- I don’t know if they did a damn thing free agent wise to get better but I think some of the guys will be better so there’s that. Let’s see what they do. Enjoy the game!
                                      Comment
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