Florida vs Houston Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-06-25, 11:49 AM

Florida vs Houston early picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Houston ML (-102 BetMGM)

"For more than two months, Houston had looked like the second-best team in the country. Then on Saturday night, the Cougars managed one of the most memorable comebacks in March Madness history to knock off the team we had all presumed to be the best team in college basketball - a Duke squad that was two wins away from being talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Despite the mismatch against a Blue Devils team with the Wooden Award odds winner in Cooper Flagg and multiple other future NBA first-round picks, Houston's suffocating defense and 3-point shooting efficiency were the difference in the end. On Monday night, Kelvin Sampson's team is poised to do even more damage against a Florida team with defensive holes and far less length than Duke.

The Gators' fast-paced offense relies so heavily on 3-pointers, and Houston allows opponents to shoot just 30.1% from behind the arc - the Cougars allow the lowest field goal percentage in the country (38.2%). This is the No. 1 defense in adjusted efficiency, and it just held the No. 1 offense to 39.6% shooting and 67 points. Florida won't be able to lean on Walter Clayton Jr. to carry its offense all night against this group.

Sampson's methodical approach should also stop the Gators from turning this into a track meet, with the Cougs ranking 360th in the country in adjusted tempo. The key to a Houston championship will be L.J. Cryer rising to the occasion once again after he shot 6-for-9 from three against Duke. Luckily, Florida's defense has been far more penetrable than the Blue Devils' in the tournament."

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-06-25, 12:11 PM

Houston team of destiny after KO duke

florida benifited from a hobbled John I broom or they prob won’t even b here

**stevenash** · 04-06-25, 12:15 PM

Houston, like pitching in baseball, defense wins.

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-06-25, 04:32 PM

Can’t wait for this game tmr

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-06-25, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Florida vs Houston early picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Houston ML (-102 BetMGM)

"a Duke squad that was two wins away from being talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Kelvin Sampson's team is poised to do even more damage against a Florida team with defensive holes and far less length than Duke.

Florida's defense has been far more penetrable than the Blue Devils' in the tournament."

Thanks for the projection. I appreciate the insights. I don’t agree with the following…

- Duke one of the greatest teams of all time? This Duke team lost to Kentucky at home, an unranked, lousy Kansas team, an average Clemson squad and just lost to Houston. 2 wins away… lol, they didn’t even win the first game. No one should dare mention this Duke team as one of the best ever.

- Florida team defensive holes? Where? Defense more penetrate than Duke? Huh? The Gators have held every tourney team they played way below their season average. Their defense is top 10 Kenpom. The Gators front court is huge, one of the best skilled bigs in ncaab. They are one of top rebounding teams too.

Should be a great game. I think Houston will come out flat after that emotional game. They celebrated as if they already won the title.

**Ian** · 04-07-25, 08:38 AM

Florida's offensive strategy in crunch time vs. Auburn seemed to be to hand the ball to Clayton and let him do it himself. I don't think that will work against Houston as imo they are a step up from Auburn defensively. My lean is Houston here for that reason, but I'm not confident enough in it to bet my opinion yet. Any other thoughts?

What action do people have on the game?

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 09:03 AM

Florida vs Houston prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Houston +1.5 (-114 FanDuel)

"Houston had entered its Final Four matchup with Duke holding 32 of its 38 opponents to fewer than 70 points. However, its most impressive defensive performance was limiting the Blue Devils, who had the most efficient offense ever in the KenPom era, to just 67 points and one field goal over the final 10:30 of the second half.

The Cougars’ offensive performance on Saturday should also not be overlooked, as they made 45.5% of their 3-point attempts in shooting over a Blue Devils team that is the tallest in the nation by average height.

In addition, Houston made 10 of 12 shots against Duke’s No. 1-rated defense in terms of effective field goal percentage during a stretch ranging between the end of the first half and the start of the second half. That made the Cougars’ comeback even more impressive since Duke extended the lead in that stretch.

There is little argument that Florida faced much stiffer competition than Houston on a daily basis in conference play coming from the rugged SEC.

But the Gators are also fortunate to still be playing, after having just a 5.6% win probability in their second-half comeback in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech. Their Final Four game could also have turned out much differently if Johni Broome was 100% healthy.

Instead, Houston’s victory on Saturday when it had a 1.5% winning percentage when down 59-45 with just over eight minutes left had more of a feel that it earned that victory instead of Duke losing it.

As we cited in our Houston pick when grabbing the points against Duke, do not underestimate the Cougars’ home-court advantage playing in San Antonio. I give Houston the coaching edge as well, and am backing it to win its first national championship."

Walter Clayton Under 19.5 points (-115 FanDuel)

"Walter Clayton’s 34 points against Auburn on Saturday were the most in a Final Four win since 1981. In addition, Clayton is the first player with consecutive 30-point games in the Elite Eight and Final Four since Larry Bird in 1979.

Given Clayton’s hot streak, this is a heavily contrarian play, but one that comes with confidence in supporting the country’s best defensive team.

Houston entered the Final Four allowing a D-I best 0.87 points per possession in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Its unique way of blitzing and trapping ball screens should get the ball out of Clayton’s hands often.

In a game that Houston should be successful playing at its tempo, I am backing Clayton to be held under 20 points for the second time in the previous eight games."

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-07-25, 10:47 AM

I agree they should keep Clayton in check but it seems like he scores half there points

pass

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-07-25, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Ian

Florida's offensive strategy in crunch time vs. Auburn seemed to be to hand the ball to Clayton and let him do it himself. I don't think that will work against Houston as imo they are a step up from Auburn defensively. My lean is Houston here for that reason, but I'm not confident enough in it to bet my opinion yet. Any other thoughts?

What action do people have on the game?

I like UF tonight but I’m also a homer but very rational homer. No team is more battle tested than UF. They can play so many different styles. They can play in the half court. They can run up and down uptempo. They have depth at every position. Their front line is huge that can control the boards. The Gators have not played their best this entire tournament but still find ways to win. They just need to take care of the ball, which has been an issue. They’ve been doubted all season long but they just keep winning.

I live in Houston, I know several of the players, coaches. I won’t be too mad if they win. I do think that Duke win took a lot out of them.

Florida’s defense is underrated. They lock teams down in the 2nd half. Plus they have the best player on the floor in Clayton. Advantage UF. I think UF wins by double digits as a result. I also think this game goes over. Houston may come out strong the first few minutes but all Gators from there.

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 12:52 PM

Florida vs Houston AI predictions from ChatGPT:

AI score prediction: Florida 74, Houston 70

"Florida's offense, averaging 85.3 points per game this season, faces Houston's formidable defense, which has allowed just 58.5 points per game. The Gators' tempo and offensive efficiency are expected to challenge the Cougars' defensive schemes. Houston's recent comeback against Duke demonstrated its resilience, but Florida's balanced attack and current form give the Gators the edge in this matchup."

Best player prop bet: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 19.5 points

"Clayton has been instrumental in Florida's tournament run, notably scoring 34 points in the Final Four against Auburn and 30 points in the Elite Eight against Texas Tech. Given Houston's defensive focus, Clayton's ability to create and convert scoring opportunities will be crucial. The model projects him to surpass this number for the third straight game, continuing his postseason dominance."

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 02:08 PM

Florida vs Houston player prop picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Walter Clayton Jr. Under 19.5 points (+100 Caesars)

"The question in tonight’s Florida vs. Houston game is what happens when an unstoppable force (Walter Clayton Jr.’s scoring) meets an immovable object (Houston’s slow pace and elite defensive play). I favor Houston’s defense by a comfortable margin. The Cougars lead the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1 (89.4) while ranking 357th in pace.

Clayton Jr. has been dominant in the tournament and just hung 34 points on Auburn, bringing his average to 24.6 points per March Madness game. However, his shooting splits of 50/49/91 have ballooned from his full-season averages of 44/39/88. Where some see clutch play, I see an opportunity for serious shooting regression.

We successfully faded Clayton against an elite Maryland perimeter defense that had been using a slower pace in the tournament. Houston isn’t quite as highly ranked in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing the 45th-best rate since Feb. 1 (30.8%), but the incredibly slow pace will minimize Clayton’s ability to go over this line.

This pick directly fades the public, who has made Clayton Over 19.5 points its best bet at BetMGM. Read on for more betting insights for tonight's March Madness finale."

Emanuel Sharp Over 14.5 points (+100 FanDuel)

"Houston senior L.J. Cryer stole the show against Duke with 26 points, but I want action on his teammate, Emanuel Sharp, in this spot. Sharp hasn’t been explosive this tournament, but he has been consistent, rattling off 16.3 points per game in the last three games with totals of 16, 16, and 17.

Sharp’s shooting splits this season (42/42/87) are solid, but he hasn’t met that standard efficiency-wise in the tournament (38/35/79). While an increase in playing time and tougher competition are possible explanations, I suspect there’s been some bad luck at play, which we’ve started to see correct itself over the last three games.

In his five games with 30-plus minutes, Sharp has cleared the 14.5-point threshold in each while averaging 18.4. The Florida defense is efficient, but the team’s fast pace should create a few extra possessions for Sharp to exploit on the offensive end. This price is just too low for him tonight."

Alex Condon Under 14.5 points and rebounds (-118 FanDuel)

"Alex Condon, a 6-foot-11 sophomore, has a bright future and is projected by many to eventually wind up as an NBA draft selection. However, he hasn’t helped his case much this tournament. He fouled out against Auburn after tallying one point and four rebounds, bringing his tournament averages down to 6.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Condon is shooting just 33/25/50 since the tournament’s second weekend began.

With Condon coming down with only 11.6 points and rebounds per game since the tournament started, the books are projecting a massive bounce-back showing for him against Houston, which just doesn’t seem realistic against such a slow-paced and efficient team.

Sure, Condon is averaging 10.5 points and 7.6 rebounds (18.1 total) this season, but with Florida’s willingness to move away from him (see his 14 minutes against Maryland) and his foul struggles (2.8 per game since March 1), I just don’t see a bounce-back gaming coming for him."

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 02:26 PM

Florida vs Houston Same Game Parlay picks from SBR's Mike Spector:

Houston ML
J'Wan Roberts Over 6.5 rebounds
Walter Clayton Over 3.5 assists

Best SGP odds: +579 at FanDuel (Tip: Use the 30% profit boost to move this to +753)

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 03:05 PM

National Championship betting insights from BetMGM:

“Duke losing in the Final Four was a great result for BetMGM. The sportsbook is cheering for Houston to upset Florida in the championship game.” – Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Notable bets
• $100,000 on Florida +900 to win the National Championship
• $50,000 on Houston +600 to win the National Championship

Line movement (Open to Now)
Florida
- Open: +4000
- Round of 64: +325
- Round of 32: +300
- Sweet 16: +350
- Elite 8: +300
- Final Four: +300
- Current: -115

Houston
- Open: +1400
- Round of 64: +600
- Round of 32: +550
- Sweet 16: +500
- Elite 8: +550
- Final Four: +450
- Current: -105

Most popular props (tickets)
• Walter Clayton over 19.5 points (-140)
• Walter Clayton over 3.5 assists (-135)
• LJ Cryer over 2.5 made three pointers (-150)
• LJ Cryer over 17.5 points (-110)
• J'Wan Roberts over 6.5 rebounds (-115)

**SBR Andy** · 04-07-25, 03:06 PM

Florida vs Houston betting insights from DraftKings: