Florida vs Houston Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The National Championship is set for Monday night with Florida taking on Houston at 8:50 PM ET in San Antonio. The Gators opened as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 141.5.

The Cougars are seeking their first National Championship in school history while the Gators are looking for their first title since going back-to-back in 2006-2007.

Early Picks

Line History

Matchup Stats

Who comes out on top and cuts down the nets on Monday night?

[SBR Andy]

Florida vs Houston early picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Houston ML (-102 BetMGM)

"For more than two months, Houston had looked like the second-best team in the country. Then on Saturday night, the Cougars managed one of the most memorable comebacks in March Madness history to knock off the team we had all presumed to be the best team in college basketball - a Duke squad that was two wins away from being talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Despite the mismatch against a Blue Devils team with the Wooden Award odds winner in Cooper Flagg and multiple other future NBA first-round picks, Houston's suffocating defense and 3-point shooting efficiency were the difference in the end. On Monday night, Kelvin Sampson's team is poised to do even more damage against a Florida team with defensive holes and far less length than Duke.

The Gators' fast-paced offense relies so heavily on 3-pointers, and Houston allows opponents to shoot just 30.1% from behind the arc - the Cougars allow the lowest field goal percentage in the country (38.2%). This is the No. 1 defense in adjusted efficiency, and it just held the No. 1 offense to 39.6% shooting and 67 points. Florida won't be able to lean on Walter Clayton Jr. to carry its offense all night against this group.

Sampson's methodical approach should also stop the Gators from turning this into a track meet, with the Cougs ranking 360th in the country in adjusted tempo. The key to a Houston championship will be L.J. Cryer rising to the occasion once again after he shot 6-for-9 from three against Duke. Luckily, Florida's defense has been far more penetrable than the Blue Devils' in the tournament."

[johnnyvegas13]

Houston team of destiny after KO duke

florida benifited from a hobbled John I broom or they prob won’t even b here

[stevenash]

Houston, like pitching in baseball, defense wins.

[johnnyvegas13]

Can’t wait for this game tmr

[Mac4Lyfe]

Florida vs Houston early picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Houston ML (-102 BetMGM)

"a Duke squad that was two wins away from being talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Kelvin Sampson's team is poised to do even more damage against a Florida team with defensive holes and far less length than Duke.

Florida's defense has been far more penetrable than the Blue Devils' in the tournament."

Thanks for the projection. I appreciate the insights. I don’t agree with the following…

- Duke one of the greatest teams of all time? This Duke team lost to Kentucky at home, an unranked, lousy Kansas team, an average Clemson squad and just lost to Houston. 2 wins away… lol, they didn’t even win the first game. No one should dare mention this Duke team as one of the best ever.

- Florida team defensive holes? Where? Defense more penetrate than Duke? Huh? The Gators have held every tourney team they played way below their season average. Their defense is top 10 Kenpom. The Gators front court is huge, one of the best skilled bigs in ncaab. They are one of top rebounding teams too.

Should be a great game. I think Houston will come out flat after that emotional game. They celebrated as if they already won the title.

[Ian]

Florida's offensive strategy in crunch time vs. Auburn seemed to be to hand the ball to Clayton and let him do it himself. I don't think that will work against Houston as imo they are a step up from Auburn defensively. My lean is Houston here for that reason, but I'm not confident enough in it to bet my opinion yet. Any other thoughts?

What action do people have on the game?

[SBR Andy]

Florida vs Houston prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Houston +1.5 (-114 FanDuel)

"Houston had entered its Final Four matchup with Duke holding 32 of its 38 opponents to fewer than 70 points. However, its most impressive defensive performance was limiting the Blue Devils, who had the most efficient offense ever in the KenPom era, to just 67 points and one field goal over the final 10:30 of the second half.

The Cougars’ offensive performance on Saturday should also not be overlooked, as they made 45.5% of their 3-point attempts in shooting over a Blue Devils team that is the tallest in the nation by average height.

In addition, Houston made 10 of 12 shots against Duke’s No. 1-rated defense in terms of effective field goal percentage during a stretch ranging between the end of the first half and the start of the second half. That made the Cougars’ comeback even more impressive since Duke extended the lead in that stretch.

There is little argument that Florida faced much stiffer competition than Houston on a daily basis in conference play coming from the rugged SEC.

But the Gators are also fortunate to still be playing, after having just a 5.6% win probability in their second-half comeback in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech. Their Final Four game could also have turned out much differently if Johni Broome was 100% healthy.

Instead, Houston’s victory on Saturday when it had a 1.5% winning percentage when down 59-45 with just over eight minutes left had more of a feel that it earned that victory instead of Duke losing it.

As we cited in our Houston pick when grabbing the points against Duke, do not underestimate the Cougars’ home-court advantage playing in San Antonio. I give Houston the coaching edge as well, and am backing it to win its first national championship."


Walter Clayton Under 19.5 points (-115 FanDuel)

"Walter Clayton’s 34 points against Auburn on Saturday were the most in a Final Four win since 1981. In addition, Clayton is the first player with consecutive 30-point games in the Elite Eight and Final Four since Larry Bird in 1979.

Given Clayton’s hot streak, this is a heavily contrarian play, but one that comes with confidence in supporting the country’s best defensive team.

Houston entered the Final Four allowing a D-I best 0.87 points per possession in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Its unique way of blitzing and trapping ball screens should get the ball out of Clayton’s hands often.

In a game that Houston should be successful playing at its tempo, I am backing Clayton to be held under 20 points for the second time in the previous eight games."

[johnnyvegas13]

I agree they should keep Clayton in check but it seems like he scores half there points

pass