Chances of a team scoring 33 points in a NFL game this season???

[seaborneq]

1Vice has a contest that wins if a team scores 33 points in any of its its 16 games. Is that number to hard to hit on a regular basis? I know 30, 31, 34, 35 and 38 are pretty common for high scoring teams like NE, GB, and Indy(Healthy Luck). But 33, seems highly unlikely unless there is overtime. Any Stat gurus out there with the probabilities of 33 points being a score for a team the last few high scoring seasons?

[playr101]

I have been playing in a local 3/33 league for a couple years now. (team score at final is either 3 or 33).
Not sure how many times its 3 or 33 but there are winners, sometimes every week and sometimes multiple teams.

I am sure someone with time can go back and look at the final scores but I just wanted to give you a heads up

-playr101

[rm18]

It is a lot easier now that they have long XPs

[seaborneq]

I have been playing in a local 3/33 league for a couple years now. (team score at final is either 3 or 33).
Not sure how many times its 3 or 33 but there are winners, sometimes every week and sometimes multiple teams.

I am sure someone with time can go back and look at the final scores but I just wanted to give you a heads up

-playr101

It does seems like an odd score, but 3 is even odder.

[dect6.0]

33 points were scored 9 times in the 2016 season.

[Otters27]

Lol xps and teams going for 2. Also team has 27 and scores 6 in ot

[seaborneq]

33 points were scored 9 times in the 2016 season.

32 teams play 16 games equals 512 games. 9 divided by 512 equals .017. Thanks dect6.0. It's not worth it. Not likely to happen to one team even once.

[David Steele]

Your math is wrong.

32 teams play 16 games equals 512 games. 9 divided by 512 equals .017. Thanks dect6.0. It's not worth it. Not likely to happen to one team even once.

32 teams play 16 games each...but there are 2 teams playing each game.

So there are 256 games a season, not 512.

9/256 is a 3.5% chance. Your ".017" implied a 0.017% chance, which of course is actually 1.75%.

A 3.5% chance says that in a week where 16 games are played, there is a 56% chance that one game will end with a 3 or 33 score.

[Eddy Munny]

It does seems like an odd score, but 3 is even odder.

How is 3 odder? It's a safety and a PAT.

[KVB]

Over the last 20 years the individual team score of 33 points has happened at a frequency of 1.3%.

The score of 3 is slightly more common at about 2.3%.

That's more than 5000 games.

There's no question that the XP rules will alter these frequencies, but to what degree is yet to be determined.

[asiagambler]

Patriots beat the Steelers this year 33-3

[asiagambler]

Patriots have scored 33 points 3 times this year

33-3 against Steelers Week 1
33-7 against Redskins Week 5
33-0 against Jets Week 7

[KVB]

Patriots beat the Steelers this year 33-3

In that same set of more than 5000 games over the last 20 years, a 30 point margin of victory happened .53% of the time.

On the rare side for sure.

These stats do not reflect this year.

[BigdaddyQH]

Atlanta and Kansas City have also scored 33 points. This contest is played at many bars in Southern California and Nevada.

[asiagambler]

Final useless stat:

Since 2015 season when xp was moved back, there have been 1267 games so far

56 times a team scored exactly 33 points (2.21%)
44 times a team scored exactly 3 points (1.74%)

So conclusion: Increased frequency of 33 points scored with extra point moved back