KVB Total Return Fund

**KVB** · 09-08-18, 03:35 PM

**KVB** · 09-08-18, 04:43 PM

MLB Contrarian Fund Added...

LAD -131 over COL

DET +153 over St. Louis

WASH +139 over CHC

Good Luck

**KVB** · 09-08-18, 09:15 PM

The NCAAF Market Reads Fund has picked up MICHIGAN ST -4.5 (+100) and -185 over ARIZONA ST

Two plays tonight, spread and moneyline, same risk for each.

Good Luck.

**jjgold** · 09-08-18, 09:24 PM

Sleeping here
Listening to games on the radio

**KVB** · 09-08-18, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Sleeping here
Listening to games on the radio

I was holding out for a potential 4 on tonight's game. Gold, it's been a pretty good day here in the Total Return Fund.

Can't sleep, took a nap for an hour this afternoon. Need to digest today and prepare for tomorrow. When the bombs go off and the bullets are whizzing by my head after the NFL kickoff, I'm going to need a roadmap. There is work to do.

**KVB** · 09-09-18, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by KVB

...moving $10,000 into the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund. I will be aggressively betting 3.5% or $350 of the bankroll per bet...

Here is the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund position, up more than 10% since buying in...

		Risk 3.5 %
Date	MLB Contrarian Fund	$10,000

3-Sep	MIA +132	462
	MIL +113	395.5
	NYY/OAK UNDER 8.5 (-120)	-350
	LAA/TEX UNDER 10.5 (-108)	324.07
	BOS/ATL UNDER 9 (+105)	-350
4-Sep	WASH -113	-350
	MIA +130	-350
	PHI/MIA UNDER 7 (+100)	-350
	CHC -104	-350
	LAA/TEX UNDER 9 (-102)	343.14
	NYY/OAK UNDER 8 (+105)	367.5
	BOS/ATL UNDER 8.5 (+103)	360.5
5-Sep	CHC +103	360.5
	TOR +116	406
6-Sep	CLE/TOR UNDER 9 (-103)	-350
7-Sep	SD +143	-350
	MIA/PIT UNDER 8 (-110)	0
	WASH +119	0
	ATL/ARI UNDER 7.5 (-105)	-350
	CLE/TOR UNDER 8.5 (+105)	367.5
	KC +125	-350
	DET +135	472.5
8-Sep	CHC/WASH UNDER 8 (-105)	-350
	LAD -131	-350
	HOU/BOS UNDER 8.5 (-105)	333.33
	CLE/TOR UNDER 9.5 (-122)	-350
	NYY/SEA UNDER 8.5 (-102)	343.14
	DET +153	535.5
	WASH +139	486.5

	Total	$11,007.68

**KVB** · 09-09-18, 01:08 AM

Here's the NCAAF Totals Fund position with links to the original plays and a crude closer comparison...

			Risk 2.5%	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average

0-1	30-Aug	NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)	-250	49.5	N	-2.5
0-1-1		UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)	0	69	Y	4
1-1-1		WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110)	227.27	56	Y	1.5
2-1-1	31-Aug	W KENT/WISC UNDER 52 (-108)	231.48	52	PUSH	0
3-1-1	1-Sep	KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105)	238.1	57	N	-0.5
3-2-1		WASH/AUB OVER 49.5	-250	50.5	Y	1
3-3-1		WASH ST/WYO UNDER 45.5 (-102)	-250	45	Y	0.5
4-3-1	2-Sep	MIA/LSU OVER 47 (-108)	231.48	47.5	Y	0.5
5-3-1	8-Sep	APP ST/CHARLOTTE OVER 48 (-110)	227.27	48.5	Y	0.5
6-3-1		E MICH/PURDUE UNDER 51 (-105)	238.1	50.5	Y	0.5
7-3-1		N MEX/WISC UNDER 59.5 (-102)	245.1	58	Y	1.5
8-3-1		GA ST/NC ST UNDER 56.5 (-107)	233.64	56.5	PUSH	0
9-3-1		KANSAS/C MICH UNDER 49 (-108)	231.48	48	Y	1
10-3-1		BAYLOR/UTSA OVER 54 (-105)	238.1	55	Y	1
10-4-1		WYO/MISSOURI UNDER 52.5 (-108)	-250	52.5	PUSH	0
10-5-1		FRESNO ST/MINN OVER 50 (-105)	-250	50	PUSH	0
10-6-1		CAL/BYU OVER 47.5 (-105)	-250	47.5	PUSH	0

10-6-1		Total	$10,842.02		10-2-5	0.529412

**KVB** · 09-09-18, 11:29 AM

I am moving out of the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund with profit over the last week and discontinuing tracking at SBR for the MLB Contrarian Fund this year.

**unde0087** · 09-09-18, 11:31 AM

Say what?

**KVB** · 09-09-18, 11:38 AM

Bought into the MLB Contrarian Fund on Sept 3rd for this thread, up 10% and am now selling out of it. It's also time to end the MLB Contrarian Fund tracking overall. Time to concentrate on other tracking at SBR, mostly NCAAF.

**KVB** · 09-10-18, 01:37 AM

The NCAAF Market Reads Fund isn't just about Saturday nights. Sometimes market information flows into the next week as well.

I have picked up Toledo +10 (-105) over Miami for the Market Reads Fund. Remember, I can strike at the same game at different prices in this fund.

Here is the Fund so far with a crude closing line comparison...

ATS			Risk 3.5 %	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS	BTC ML
Record	Date	NCAAF Market Reads Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average	Average

1-0	1-Sep	BYU +10 (-104)	336.54	11	N	-1
2-0	8-Sep	IOWA ST/IOWA UNDER 46.5 (-101)	346.53	46.5	PUSH	0
2-1		MICH ST -4.5 (+100)	-350	-4.5	PUSH	0
		MICH ST -185	-350	189	Y		0.04

2-1			$9,983.07		1-1-2	-0.33333	0.04

**KVB** · 09-10-18, 01:38 AM

Here are the sports positions and their performance in this fund...

Name	Open	Closed	Quantity	Proceeds/Value	CostBasis	Total Gain/Loss ($)	Total Gain/Loss (%)
Blended Value	5/29/18	7/17/18	1	$5,000.00	$5,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
CFL Sharp Forecast	7/17/18	8/20/18	1	$8,375.00	$10,000.00	-$1,625.00	-16.25%
NCAAF Totals	8/29/18		1	$10,842.02	$10,000.00	$842.02	8.42%
NCAAF Market Reads	9/1/18		1	$9,983.07	$10,000.00	-$16.93	-0.17%
MLB Contrarian	9/3/18	9/7/18	1	$11,007.68	$10,000.00	$1,007.68	10.08%

Totals						$207.77

The MLB Contrarian Fund was up .7 units today, I should have held one more day...lol.

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 01:14 AM

The KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund has picked up two plays on the same game..

HOUSTON +110 over TEXAS TECH

HOUSTON +2 (-105) over TEXAS TECH.

Good Luck.

**jjgold** · 09-11-18, 05:36 AM

CFL bag it next year

nobody bets that garbage

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

CFL bag it next year

nobody bets that garbage

A rough start this year for the CFL, but battled back with other positions.

Also, this account has received $42.50 dividend PFE.

**jjgold** · 09-11-18, 01:15 PM

Today short card

Not a lot of wiggle room to maneuver

**gauchojake** · 09-11-18, 01:20 PM

Thoughts on

Army/Hawaii

North Texas/Arkansas

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

...North Texas/Arkansas

The stacking forecast has N. Texas winning with about 31 points to Arkansas' 27 points. The non-predictive public gauge says Arkansas wins 41-31.

There was an early opener as high as 9 but we can see why that line has fallen and the way those numbers fit with some of that back end info too. I think the public could be looking for that Arkansas bounce back, a little gambler fallacy style, but the money is tempering it.

The books clearly opened both the Total and line at right about the public gauge. Maybe they messed up there, maybe they did it on purpose. They don't make many mistakes.

So the early, but still decent volume has the public, or the ticket count, slightly favoring Arkansas while the early money is clearly on the N Texas spread.

The moneyline shows more tickets on N Texas, but more money on Arkansas, both by huge extremes. Now remember, the price of the -7 moneyline can lend to this situation so it may not tell us as much as the spread info.

From my info, there is heavy parlay liability, already, on Arkansas. They can't lose twice, can they?

The stacking forecast has a far better chance of beating the Totals than the spread and will by a larger margin. College Totals are inherently weaker. I have little back end info for the Totals here but I do like the Under that the forecast predicts.

I have bought nothing and think the Total might actually rise, it has one point already

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The books clearly opened both the Total and line at right about the public gauge. Maybe they messed up there, maybe they did it on purpose. They don't make many mistakes.

So the early, but still decent volume...

I want to add something here. I don't mean to say, necessarily, that the books are taking a position when I imply they opened the line where they did on purpose.

But note that I mention the decent volume. The originators, who can be books as well anymore, help the books in their desire to generate action. The early money came in, as it has tested limits and dropped the line and now, with the early money slowed down by limits and now only a TD to take, the public can continue to and come in further this week on the favorite.

The opener helps to generate action on the game, in that sense, and I can see it in the early volume generated.

**RangeFinder** · 09-11-18, 03:21 PM

K,

The contrarians would like you to add Middle Tenn this week. However, I just can't seem to pull the trigger

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 03:51 PM

**jjgold** · 09-11-18, 06:32 PM

KVB when will you and your lovely Wife come to the Lehigh Valley?

**gauchojake** · 09-11-18, 06:40 PM

Good info KVBer

**KVB** · 09-11-18, 06:48 PM

The NCAAF Market Reads Fund has picked up BC/WAKE UNDER 54 (-110).

There are 53.5 (-105)'s out there, but I'm choosing the 54 route for the night game.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 09-12-18, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Thoughts on

Army/Hawaii...

The stacking forecast says Army wins with 30 points Hawaii's 13 points. The public gauge say Army wins 35-24.

The line opened at 5, 5.5 in some houses, and jumped to 6.5, towards the forecast.

The early bettors must be sharp, forecast style, because that line moved upward in the face of nothing but public pressure and money on Hawaii.

The books are developing a contrarian situation here where sharper money, but perhaps not all, are also on that contrarian side.

This knowledge is best used with the broader context of who is where, but all I can say is my analysis puts everyone pretty darn 50-50 in that respect, the broader market isn't swayed too far any one direction, yet.

Anyway, the books may very well be taking a position here as this game seems to be generating a lot of early volume for an Army/Hawaii game.

Either that Britney Spears impersonator has the public riled up or word is getting out that Hawaii is exciting and can score.

When it comes to individual books, I can pretty much see a couple of Army plays that I would consider sharp, in a reverse line move sense but this situation lends to those bets for sure.

We are seeing -6.5 out there now but I have no doubt that the public Hawaii story and trend will continue and, position or not, we should see that line drop pull off of 6.5 and drop to 6.

The forecast says Under but that line is high because both teams will give up the ass. I wouldn't fade the forecast, but I'm not betting the Under, just yet.

Hawaii can bury or save a lot bettors this week, they could be a parlay killer. If it's a burial, is it because they can't score or because Army outscored them?

I think it's the latter and smell an Under and would not bet the Over here in any circumstance.

**KVB** · 09-12-18, 04:30 PM

The NCAAF Totals Fund added...

BC/WAKE UNDER 54 (-105)

There are now two funds in this thread with this play.

Good Luck

**hotcross** · 09-12-18, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

KVB when will you and your lovely Wife come to the Lehigh Valley?

I wouldn't answer that either, KVB

Secondarily, why is it whenever a wife is mentioned on SBR, that she's is always described as "lovely" or some other sugar-y adjective?

My wife was/is a full-on all-out biiitch and y'all would understand that real quick if you met her.

**KVB** · 09-12-18, 04:40 PM

My wife is lovely, there is no other way to describe her. Just ask those who met her. I'm the lucky one for sure.

Gold we will meet in the Midwest next, maybe Chicago are. I have two SBR posters to visit out there, just not sure when.

**jjgold** · 09-12-18, 04:47 PM

Chicago is pretty easy for me, I met this woman and she’s lovely.

KVB was calling her kitten the whole time.

**KVB** · 09-12-18, 05:19 PM

No Gold, Kitten was nickname for the notebook I was carrying around and wouldn't let you see.

**RangeFinder** · 09-12-18, 05:36 PM

K,

Last night was disaster for me but I'm on Wash-Philly Under 7.5 tonight. I love that Wake-B.C Under. I got on that this morning. Wind will be a factor for sure.

**KVB** · 09-12-18, 06:12 PM

Hey Range,

Lost with Cleveland earlier but have Zona to win and Balty Under 9.5 & 9 left for the Contrarian Fund.

I'm not worrying about tracking that Fund at SBR now or trying to post plays as they are made, things are getting busy.

College hoops is right around the corner and I'm looking to destroy that Totals market.

**RangeFinder** · 09-12-18, 06:33 PM

I like it

**KVB** · 09-13-18, 11:31 AM

The NCAAF Totals Fund added...

ODU/CHARLOTE UNDER 47.5 (-108)

Good Luck

**KVB** · 09-15-18, 09:24 AM

The NCAAF Totals Fund added...

GA SOUTHERN/CLEMSON UNDER 49 (-105)

OREGON ST/NEVADA UNDER 67.5 (-103)

M TENN ST/GEORGIA UNDER 57 (-105)

Good Luck