Let’s look at this a little closer. We’ve already gone over the line movement; Stanford was triggered in the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.
This strategy was tracked last year to the tune of +2.5 units over 126 plays. But what I want to look at is the performance against the closer. Last season, the UPSET Basket beat the closing line by an average of 15 cents and had a win/loss record of 88-35-3 against the closing the line.
Here's the Unit chart for last year's UPSET Basket campaign...
At any point on the line is the avg vs the closing line up to that point in the season. The drop off at the end was the result of the final play of 2018 where the Southern -110 closed at +175. I only tracked last year so I don’t want to put a chart back further but will say that it’s where we expect it, for the most part.
Here’s the current UPSET Basket plays this week, with links to the original plays, and the current market price at Pinny, with the last two from 5D (according to SBR odds)…
This week Stanford +3.5 also qualified with another strategy, the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund. That Fund was +18.73 over 83 plays with a record of 52-30-1 ATS last year and beat the close by more than half a point on the spread…
Here are the Units from the Visiting Dog Fund from last year...
But what of the BYU +6.5 play?
That BYU Play was triggered in the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund, yet another strategy. Last year that Fund was +13.01 units over 87 plays with a 52-33-2 record ATS, beating the close by less than half a point…
Here's the Units chart for that Fund...
So are we really flipping a coin here? I plan to continue the running averages to add to the sample size as we move forward through season to give as a better picture of what’s happening.
It’s certainly the case for something a little more than a coin flip as there has been success through the years, but we’ll just have to take each season as they come.
These are forecast based and when I ask in the post above “how will you know if the adjustment has gone in your favor?” I don’t discount some subjective talent, but it sure helps to have a reliable forecast when trying to play the market.
In the end, Rudy is right, they are ahead of us, despite the case I make for reliability with these charts above.
This strategy was tracked last year to the tune of +2.5 units over 126 plays. But what I want to look at is the performance against the closer. Last season, the UPSET Basket beat the closing line by an average of 15 cents and had a win/loss record of 88-35-3 against the closing the line.
Here's the Unit chart for last year's UPSET Basket campaign...
At any point on the line is the avg vs the closing line up to that point in the season. The drop off at the end was the result of the final play of 2018 where the Southern -110 closed at +175. I only tracked last year so I don’t want to put a chart back further but will say that it’s where we expect it, for the most part.
Here’s the current UPSET Basket plays this week, with links to the original plays, and the current market price at Pinny, with the last two from 5D (according to SBR odds)…
| NCAAF UPSET Basket | Current | ||
| Line | |||
| 317 | 7-Sep | SYRACUSE +115 | 104 |
| 343 | 7-Sep | ARKANSAS ST +115 | 102 |
| 355 | N TEXAS +160 | 146 | |
| 357 | BYU +145 | 139 | |
| 385 | 7-Sep | STANFORD +135 | 100 |
| 401 | 7-Sep | KENNESAW ST -110 | -105 |
| 409 | 7-Sep | S ILLINOIS +145 | 145 |
Here are the Units from the Visiting Dog Fund from last year...
But what of the BYU +6.5 play?
That BYU Play was triggered in the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund, yet another strategy. Last year that Fund was +13.01 units over 87 plays with a 52-33-2 record ATS, beating the close by less than half a point…
Here's the Units chart for that Fund...
So are we really flipping a coin here? I plan to continue the running averages to add to the sample size as we move forward through season to give as a better picture of what’s happening.
It’s certainly the case for something a little more than a coin flip as there has been success through the years, but we’ll just have to take each season as they come.
These are forecast based and when I ask in the post above “how will you know if the adjustment has gone in your favor?” I don’t discount some subjective talent, but it sure helps to have a reliable forecast when trying to play the market.
In the end, Rudy is right, they are ahead of us, despite the case I make for reliability with these charts above.
