I think I just found a SHARP tennis live strategy even though it just cost me $1K

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  • Doug tushyterror
    SBR MVP
    • 07-03-12
    • 4172

    #1
    I think I just found a SHARP tennis live strategy even though it just cost me $1K
    This should only be applied to men's tennis for obvious reasons (chicks can't hold)
    It involves taking both players in the 2nd set to win that set 7-6 at great odds (anywhere from +500 to +1000 depending on how early you make the bet..I waited too long so I got shit odds) & also taking the over or the player who lost the 1st set to win the 2nd depending on which option is available)

    1)Dimitrov 7-6 (236/994) & Opelka 7-6 (272/993)
    2)over in the total (470/508) 508 covers the risk for the 7-6 bets
    3) Only way this loses in this case is if Dimitrov loses the 2nd set before the TB which is unfortunately what happened after he was cruising on serve until 4-4. That's the obvious risk you take but I still won't be discouraged cuz I def see this working long term)

    4)Had Dimitrov not choked & at least got it to a TB, I would've won $15 if Opelka wins the TB or $1230 if Dimitrov wins it. If Dimi wins the 2nd set before the TB, I break even. (wound up losing $978 but it was def. worth the risk & I'll keep doing it in these spots).



    Brutal beat
  • TheMetsSuck
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-14-12
    • 6149

    #2
    Too high to analyze this, but it looks like a solid strategy if a guy like isner, opelka, or Kyrgios type players are involved in.
    Comment
    • Vyasports
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-27-19
      • 4946

      #3
      That is NOT a sharp strategy, bro.

      Some books offer markets on tiebreak (yes/no) in sets. These are exotic bets. That's why you get higher odds. There is also the potential risk of the bets being voided due to RET.

      and you also cannot use the Fibonacci betting system for these type of bets in tennis; unless you are very very patient.
      Comment
      • Doug tushyterror
        SBR MVP
        • 07-03-12
        • 4172

        #4
        [QUOTE=Vyasports;30468629]That is NOT a sharp strategy, bro.

        Some books offer markets on tiebreak (yes/no) in sets. These are exotic bets. That's why you get higher odds. There is also the potential risk of the bets being voided due to RET.


        Situationally I still think it's a sharp strategy. Obviously the longer you wait in the 2nd set the worst the 7-6 odds will be. Tell me regardless of the outcome in this bet, how at 4-3 in the 2nd set with Dimitrov holding easily this wasn't the right play?
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388189

          #5
          Doug always looking for angles I like that
          Comment
          • SamsNCharge99
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-22-08
            • 41242

            #6
            I have used this strategy before and all 3 sets went to tie breaks

            was a fun match
            Comment
            • TommieGunshot
              SBR MVP
              • 03-27-12
              • 1586

              #7
              You are making three separate bets and together thing they add up to a positive expectation, is that correct?

              If you only made one of these bets, would it be a good bet? If yes, just make that one, and skip any ones that would be bad bets on their own. If only making one of these bets on its own would not be good, you are adding together negative numbers (because each one has a negative value), thinking the sum will be positive. That is not how things work.
              Comment
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