Heat vs Hawks

**slayer14** · 04-19-22, 06:22 PM

heat won play a up tempo game so i think the under 221 the play

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-19-22, 06:22 PM

Hawks

lean under gl

**jjgold** · 04-19-22, 06:23 PM

Heat ml

**Bostongambler** · 04-19-22, 06:24 PM

Mia/Memp ML parlay

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 06:24 PM

Took UNDER 219.5 but that shit blinked up.

Not gonna lie, it caught me off guard.

That doesn't happen often.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 06:25 PM

Probably means I'm fukked.

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-19-22, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Heat ml

All u need to know

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-19-22, 06:39 PM

Heat in another blowout. Trae another game low.

**slayer14** · 04-19-22, 08:33 PM

game is going under now for sure the hawks are cold

**slayer14** · 04-19-22, 08:58 PM

buttler is showing why he is world class standard player

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Took UNDER 219.5 but that shit blinked up.

Not gonna lie, it caught me off guard.

That doesn't happen often.

Originally posted by KVB

Probably means I'm fukked.

Just knew it.

220

**slayer14** · 04-19-22, 11:44 PM

it was a rainbow 3 in the last 30 seconds to make it worse

**Bedrockfred** · 04-20-22, 06:04 AM

Hawks are over matched.

**KVB** · 04-20-22, 01:35 PM

I want to drop back into this thread for a second.

It's often good to evalluate certain losses, sometimes avoidable losses, and to constantly drop in to see what condition your condition is in.

Originally posted by KVB

Took UNDER 219.5 but that shit blinked up.

Not gonna lie, it caught me off guard.

That doesn't happen often.

Originally posted by KVB

Probably means I'm fukked.

I want SBR to understand my thinking here.

I knew it was a problem, I posted everything there that tells me such. I had all the Red Flags I needed.

Instead of investigating further, and not keeping myself open to selling back, we missed legitimate middle opportunity, and more importantly I didn't even post about it when it was a perfect example.

At 221.5, a line I did see pre game and could have traded, there was a good middle opportunity here. I even said to myself, and amost posted "watch it land on 220". That is the truth.

Everyone's been there. Some play they were confident in, something happens, and they know they are fukked. Not because of the emotion of the moment, but because they have been there before. They have experience. They generate Red Flags.

Experience is one of the biggest things to being conistent in successful sportsbetting. I know that sounds intuitivie, and that it actually lends towards the subject of intuition, but it can not be denied, intuition or not. All topics for another time.

My point is amost everyone reading this has been there. They know the feeling, if not the data.

So where did I go wrong? Why didn't I make a trade that looking back (not looking at the result, looking at my process, the result ignored) I clearly should have made?

Win or lose aside, there was room for me to make that trade and it should have been. Where did I go wrong?

I regret not using this like the Foster thread to teach real time, that's actually a big regret of mine. I feel bad that good example was just passed by, I can't post them all. But what about my money, my business?

As of now, I am going to have to chalk it up to being distracted with SBR. That's all I got. I fukked up.

I know I wrote a lot, the biggest lesson of this post isn't about being distracted, how we all will eventually make mistakes so don't beat your wife when you do, etc, all good lessons, the most important thing is that you take the time to reflect. You take the time to examine all of the why you made the bets you made, that you are hopefully tracking.

For the more advanced, constantly test and retest you numbers against the current market. Go back a little in time, but never forget there is a recency effect in the market and it can be long lasting. And markets shift too, it's not all noise. It can help explain why somethings are going the way they are.

Picking winners can be the easy part of gambling. But there is so much more to it.

And when you see those Red Flags, like I did above, don't be afraid to act. It's your money, suhn. There is always a tomorrow and minimizing risk is never a bad thing.

And remember to drop in, at least from time to time, and see what condition your condition is in.

Thank you if read this far.

**KVB** · 04-20-22, 02:06 PM

I should explain mistakes better. I posted UNDER, I was not facing a middle opportunity in this thread, I was facing a chance to get a better number.

There are many ways to skin the cat and because of some of my market adjustments, I can multiple "winning" or hopefully still advantageous strategies that sometimes oppose each other. Who's to say which Fund is wrong that night. It might cost vig, but it's worth it.

I failed to even consult the basic "Total's Fund" strategy here. Many mistakes were made.

Many. Seems like when it rains, it pours. One error always leads to more.