Laying horses in US Horse Racing -> Can you make living out of it?

**jjgold** · 12-23-10, 03:15 PM

They can win every once in a while, I faded a 14-1 the other day at Aqu and the fukkin horse won

You lose a few of those bets and your buried

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

They can win every once in a while, I faded a 14-1 the other day at Aqu and the fukkin horse won

You lose a few of those bets and your buried

Hmm.... yeah, I agree you can lose on 14-1 horse, but not on 50-1 horse that has odds going up to 70-1 and above about 1-2 minutes before the race starts - I take it like a stock market, the odds go up because no one expects him to win, so he cannot make sny surprise neither, so it's good money to go against such a horse, no? I mean in Betfair I can easily make £5 on every horse like this (easily find 200-1 odds to lay against him). It's 0.5% of your bank - the question is if it's risk free in your opinion or not? Has anyone tried such a system before?

**jjgold** · 12-23-10, 03:23 PM

nothing is risk free

How much does lets say 5k get you laying on a 70-1 shot?

**dfberger23** · 12-23-10, 03:24 PM

Sounds like a good way to get buried.

**madmaxx** · 12-23-10, 03:27 PM

The problem with this system is that there are not enough horses in the U.S. right now so your 70-1 shots will be limited. You might find 1 per day at the California tracks and maybe 3-4 at NY tracks on a weekend. I see 60-1, 70-1, 80-1 win all the time at Mountaineer but most tracks will not have enough horses to find these huge longshots.

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

nothing is risk free

How much does lets say 5k get you laying on a 70-1 shot?

£5k ?

pfff...

let's say 'worse case scenario' you will get about £20 after Betfair commission.
But normal case it should be around £30-£50

**str** · 12-23-10, 03:33 PM

With all the simulcast money that comes in and because a good amount of that comes from the 3 minute handicapper playing multiple tracks at the same time,the favs get hit hard as a rule ,as do the speed horses. Many a legit 8 or 12-1 shot , can go off 20-1 or better.Always monster value in that range as most players will skip over mediocre form without analyzing long enough.
Bottom line is: You get out ,what you put in.

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by madmaxx

I see 60-1, 70-1, 80-1 win all the time at Mountaineer

If that's the case my system won't work, thanks for sharing this info!

**mikemca** · 12-23-10, 03:41 PM

I imagine 1 loss will hurt I didn't look thoroughly but I found 1 within the 1st 5 dates I looked up at parx

10th race - Parx Racing At Philadelphia Park - November 23, 2010
6 Indian Promise....144.00.....43.20......24.00

**jjgold** · 12-23-10, 03:43 PM

I notice a 8-1 shot at track can go off about 20-1 at betfair, it seems like unreal value if betting to win

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

I imagine 1 loss will hurt I didn't look thoroughly but I found 1 within the 1st 5 dates I looked up at parx

10th race - Parx Racing At Philadelphia Park - November 23, 2010
6 Indian Promise....144.00.....43.20......24.00

Indian Promise --> 144.00 pfff... thanks for listing it, yep, my system won't work, but at least I tried....

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 12-23-10, 03:47 PM

If you're going to invest $1,000 to make five or ten bucks then you're laying 100 or 200 to one. If you lay those odds on horses that go off at 70-1, I can guarantee you that eventually you will get buried.

jw · 12-23-10, 03:48 PM

... laying long-shots blindly is a surefire way to lose BIG.

only takes one of them to hit and your $5 and $10 profits that you have been building up for the past 6 months have all gone bye-bye ... especially when you consider that a 70-1 shot on the tote will probably be closer to 200/1 on betfair when you are laying it.

**Rio DiNero** · 12-23-10, 03:48 PM

With the horse racing "tips" I get, I would have been rich by now if I could bet to lose.

**str** · 12-23-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I notice a 8-1 shot at track can go off about 20-1 at betfair, it seems like unreal value if betting to win

Would have to determine if 8-1 was correct or 20-1 is.
Because both prices are driven by others , you must decide and act accordingly.

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I notice a 8-1 shot at track can go off about 20-1 at betfair, it seems like unreal value if betting to win

So perhaps we can try to go with a system to lay 5-1 horses?
Can split £1,000 bank into 20 parts of £50 each, and use £50 on every horse.

You need to guess right about 4-5 horses NOT to finish 1st, and allowed to make 1 mistake - if that goes well in the long term - you make money AND don't risk your entire balance neither

What do you think??

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by Rio DiNero

With the horse racing "tips" I get, I would have been rich by now if I could bet to lose.

Where can I get these tips??

jw · 12-23-10, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by dontknowhowtobet

So perhaps we can try to go with a system to lay 5-1 horses?
Can split £1,000 bank into 20 parts of £50 each, and use £50 on every horse.

You need to guess right about 4-5 horses NOT to finish 1st, and allowed to make 1 mistake - if that goes well in the long term - you make money AND don't risk your entire balance neither

What do you think??

You cannot win blindly laying horses .. just as you cannot win blindly backing horses ...
Yesterday @ Beulah - the first two races were both won by 5/1 shots ... (both traded on betfair for around 8.0 or 9.0 ... so there is almost your entire $1000 bank gone in two races)

Your username really is very close to the truth ...

There is no "easy" way .. the best way if you are determined to go ahead with laying is to spot vulnerable favorites and lay those horses that are overbet .... you should look for an e-book called "False Favorites" and read and understand every single word of that book before even thinking about starting to lay horses.

It will still take several hours each day of form study and evaluation .. but you can beat the system if you are willing to put in the time/effort.

**madmaxx** · 12-23-10, 04:03 PM

Im surprised it works in UK. These huge dogs win daily at Australia as well.

jw · 12-23-10, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by madmaxx

Im surprised it works in UK.

It Doesn't.

**mikemca** · 12-23-10, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by dontknowhowtobet

So perhaps we can try to go with a system to lay 5-1 horses? Can split £1,000 bank into 20 parts of £50 each, and use £50 on every horse. You need to guess right about 4-5 horses NOT to finish 1st, and allowed to make 1 mistake - if that goes well in the long term - you make money AND don't risk your entire balance neither

What do you think??

I am almost certain there would be a better return laying favorites in big fields while putting up much less

**Dirty Sanchez** · 12-23-10, 04:50 PM

My dad used to always say "Horses can't read the tote board".....and I would say back "unfortunately the ass clown riding him can"....and the reason "horse racing is like juggling knives, you may catch the handle 3 out of 4 times....but the one time you miss it leaves a mark."

**jjgold** · 12-23-10, 04:58 PM

No way betfair horse players are sharper than usa horse players as far as usa tracks

It seems odds are always better at betfair

jw · 12-23-10, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

No way betfair horse players are sharper than usa horse players as far as usa tracks

It seems odds are always better at betfair

... don't have to be sharper as long as the numbers are on your side.

The reason they are always better odds is that Track odds have a 30% over-round worked into them - betfair odds on average will put that 30% into the odds ... so on average over all horses you should get much better odds on betfair than you ever would on track ...

As long as your typical layer is not laying all horses in the race @ less than 100% over-round - he does not have to be "sharp" .. cos the numbers will mean he will always win long-term... assuming there is enough money around for him to balance the books so that he can have an even amount of liability on each horse.

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 06:15 PM

Can the fact that the odds on Betfair better than others help us to find a way to make money in the long term from it??

jw · 12-23-10, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by dontknowhowtobet

Can the fact that the odds on Betfair better than others help us to find a way to make money in the long term from it??

yes ... however you still need an angle ... betting blind you cannot win long term.

Concentrate on a particular type of race, concentrate on early pace horses, on closers, on jockey/trainer combo's, on shippers, on horses that are course/distance winners, on horses that are running second or third race after a break ... whatever the angle .. try and find one that has a reasonably consistent strike rate ... and one that does not necessarily always pick out favorites ... it'll take a while .. there is no simple/easy method - if there was .. we'd all be using it

The book i mentioned earlier will help - as I said .. you are looking for value in the race ... not necessarily for the winner in each race .. but the one that is a bigger price than its chances of winning. If you are betting value each and every time - you can win long-term.

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by jw

yes ... however you still need an angle ... betting blind you cannot win long term.

Concentrate on a particular type of race, concentrate on early pace horses, on closers, on jockey/trainer combo's, on shippers, on horses that are course/distance winners, on horses that are running second or third race after a break ... whatever the angle .. try and find one that has a reasonably consistent strike rate ... and one that does not necessarily always pick out favorites ... it'll take a while .. there is no simple/easy method - if there was .. we'd all be using it

The book i mentioned earlier will help - as I said .. you are looking for value in the race ... not necessarily for the winner in each race .. but the one that is a bigger price than its chances of winning. If you are betting value each and every time - you can win long-term.

Betting value doesn't necessarily mean to bet on the horse with 100-1 that also is after another race and very tired etc? You can find these type of horses with also low odds like 20-1 etc?

**unusialsusp5** · 12-23-10, 07:25 PM

by the second day you will get burned trying to do this. only 1 out of 3 favorites win and you will bet against the wrong horse within a couple of days. bet on horses not against them. just throw the favorite out and everything else is an overlay. you want to win the money that people lose betting on favorites especially in exactas that always pay more than they should with the favorite out of the first 2 positions. try it.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 12-23-10, 07:31 PM

Sure-all-the-old-guys-at-otb-don't-do-jack-else.

jw · 12-23-10, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

just throw the favorite out and everything else is an overlay.

Not true - any horse in the race can be value - even a 1/9 shot can be value if its chance of actually winning the race is 95%

**big0mar** · 12-23-10, 07:34 PM

thought people only laid horses in mexico

**dontknowhowtobet** · 12-23-10, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

thought people only laid horses in mexico

**carparts1000** · 12-26-10, 05:15 AM

mine that bird- think it was 50-1.

**sweethook** · 12-26-10, 07:23 AM

cant see makin a living at it , but if you only bet on 1 horse all year at his races you can make money, say like you no the race team