Blind SF Giants UNDER Thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-11, 01:35 PM

Giants Blind Unders: 3/5
Rays Blind Home Unders: 0/1

5.31.11 Totals
Giants-Cards @ 7.5, Vogelsong v. Carpenter
Rays-Rangers @ 8, CJ Wilson v. Cobb

Rays one is a little harder to like after all the offense yesterday & Cobb being a very inexperienced pitcher.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-11, 08:27 AM

Giants-Cards cashes on 5.31. Rays-Rangers go OVER with seven runs in the 7th & 8th inning. Yikes.

Giants Blind Unders: 4/6
Rays Blind Home Unders: 0/2

6.1.11
Rays-Rangers @ 7.5, Lewis v. Price
Cards-Giants @ 7, Westbrook v. Lincecum

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-11, 04:12 PM

Giants Blind Unders: 4/7
Rays Blind Home Unders: 1/3

6.2.11
Giants-Cards @ 8, Sanchez v. Lynn

Tough call for tonight. Know nothing about Lynn.

**tatddy** · 06-02-11, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Giants Blind Unders: 4/7
Rays Blind Home Unders: 1/3

6.2.11
Giants-Cards @ 8, Sanchez v. Lynn

Tough call for tonight. Know nothing about Lynn.

Lynn is a big guy but not a very + fastball. He's a 4 pitch guy with a relatively heavy sinker. Not that much unlike J. Westbrook. Certainly not the type of guy SF hits well against. They're better off against the 98mph hard fastball, split type.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-11, 04:17 PM

Thanks for the info. Sanchez is one of those hit or miss guys for me. He can totally dominant, but sometimes is too wild and winds up getting beat up by one or two big hits after a few walks.

**tatddy** · 06-02-11, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Thanks for the info. Sanchez is one of those hit or miss guys for me. He can totally dominant, but sometimes is too wild and winds up getting beat up by one or two big hits after a few walks.

True. Factor in that both pens have been used extensively in this series and T. Welke behind the plate and I wouldn't mess with the under.

**DigBick86** · 06-02-11, 04:31 PM

so maybe over is the play?The guy come from the majors with short rest pitched sunday,and i think he will be nervous pitching infront of the homecrowd.Problem with Sanchez is that he walk to many and he will pay for it.Was all over the giants at first but the over seems better the more i look at it both teams should be able to put up a few today

**tatddy** · 06-02-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by DigBick86

so maybe over is the play?The guy come from the majors with short rest pitched sunday,and i think he will be nervous pitching infront of the homecrowd.Problem with Sanchez is that he walk to many and he will pay for it.Was all over the giants at first but the over seems better the more i look at it both teams should be able to put up a few today

Maybe. I don't bet overs often. Especially not in a situation where you (may) get a shutdown Sanchez and SF has one of the worst lineups in baseball right now.

**DigBick86** · 06-02-11, 04:51 PM

Think Sanchez will go deeper then Lynn whos on short rest and first big leauge game so i picked Giants insteed of the over hope Sanchez pitch like hes done the last outings

**DigBick86** · 06-02-11, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by tatddy

Maybe. I don't bet overs often. Especially not in a situation where you (may) get a shutdown Sanchez and SF has one of the worst lineups in baseball right now.

Therefor i always think twice before i put any money on them but they have gotten a couple af runs the last few games and will for sure get a few today no easy situation for Lynn just hope that Sanchez hold his game togheter

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-04-11, 11:59 AM

Missed posting yesterday. Total was 7. Under hit.

Blind Giants Unders: 5/9
Rays Home Blind Unders: 1/3

6.4.11
Rockies-Giants @ 6.5. Chacin vs. Bumgarner

Low total, but two quality pitchers so it's not out of the question.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-05-11, 05:47 PM

6.5.11: Total @ 7. Final 2-1. Gotta remember to update this. Sorry!

Blind Giants Unders: 7/11
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-06-11, 08:46 PM

6.6.11: Total @6. Lannan vs. Lincecum.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-07-11, 03:09 PM

Blind Giants Unders: 7/12
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

6.7.11: Total @ 6.5/Zimmerman v. Sanchez

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-08-11, 12:24 AM

Blind Giants Unders: 8/13
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

6.8.11: Total @ 7.5. Maya v. Cain.

**evo34** · 06-08-11, 03:48 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Posed this question yesterday and decided to track it. With no Buster Posey and an already weak offense, doesn't it make sense to take Giants' UNDERS mostly now? Maybe Giants Team Totals UNDER as well. Going to track it here & see if I am SMART or S-M-R-T. [GAME TOTAL, GIANTS TEAM TOTAL] 5.26.11: Total - 7, Final 1-0 [UNDER, UNDER] 5.27.11: Total - GT - 6.5, TT - 3, Lincecum v. Marcum

Posey playing 90% of the time to Whiteside playing 90% is probably worth about 130 pts. of OPS on offense for the lineup slot, or about 0.15 runs on the total. Defensively, it's not as clear, though it appears Whiteside is a pretty average catcher and Posey is one of the best in the game. All in all, it's a very small adjustment that should be made to the total.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-08-11, 08:36 AM

Today will be a good one to watch and see if it hits. Cain has been meh lately, but is usually a good unders play @ home. Maya is good for about 3-4 ER per start, so that doesn't leave much wiggle room if Cain is off any.

**The_Kid** · 06-09-11, 08:06 PM

EP, what are your thoughts on tonight's total? Cueto and Bumgarner have pitched really well lately.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-09-11, 08:52 PM

Total is 7 tonight. Yesterday's made it 9/14. If it hits tonight, we're at 67%. Cueto's away stats are pretty sick. Only 4.67 runs per start. Bumgarner is the key. CIN has hit lefties pretty well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-09-11, 11:51 PM

Looks like another solid win. 10/15.

**Gonad** · 06-10-11, 12:04 AM

Geezus, don't normally look at the Giants, but I sure as hell follow the Reds... Ain't hard to see where these unders are comin' from, what a ballpark... It's cold, foul balls blow back into the field of play, and you gotta be Lou f'n Ferrigno to hit one out if it ain't down the line...... OK, I kinda knew this, but you gotta see it to believe it...

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-11, 01:50 PM

Blind Giants Unders: 10/15
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

6.10.11: Total @7. Wood vs. Vogelsong.

**ManBearPig** · 06-10-11, 02:47 PM

I was thinking about this earlier this season so it's interesting that you're doing this. I just wanted to ask if you are you tracking home games only or playing any games? I ran a quick query with no filters, just to see how they fair at home and it's pretty good in favor of the under. When I incorporate away games the numbers aren't as good. but still profitable this season. I guess you could look at starting pitching and single out certain WHIPS or ERA's for better pitching, but I don't think that's necessary and it would just complicate a simple observation. Just blindly following this with no filters (except at home) has hit around 69% so far this season, which is nothing to sniff at. I say cash it while you can and move on.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-11, 02:54 PM

These are all Giants games since Posey's injury. The Rays stuff is only home games.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-11-11, 12:29 AM

Blind Giants Unders: 11/16
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

6.11.11: Total @ 6.5. Leake vs. Lincecum.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-11-11, 02:24 PM

I think today is going to be an over.

**Pick'nParlays** · 06-11-11, 02:29 PM

agreed i parlayed it at a few time but bought to over 6 (-136)

keep in mind Freddy Sanchez is no gone also. while Timmy is getting hit for a few runs I'm getting cold feet about continuing to take giants ML and any overs at all. The blind under is most usually the correct play. Last night was another classic example.

also ladies and gents look at the RL for SF. Go check out there record and tell me how many 1 run games were in the L10.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-11-11, 02:41 PM

Giants surely are desperate with Sanchez down. Saw they are going to pick up Bill Hall. That should do nothing to deter unders in the future. Hall has some pop, but he's a strikeout machine.

**MoneyLineDawg** · 06-11-11, 02:46 PM

Winds gusting out to right-center.....I like the over here, anyone else?

**MoneyLineDawg** · 06-11-11, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by MoneyLineDawg

Winds gusting out to right-center.....I like the over here, anyone else?

Hope you Giants under-bettors listened here

**tcmoody99** · 06-11-11, 05:43 PM

and now freddy is hurt

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-12-11, 12:17 PM

Blind Giants Unders: 11/17
Blind Rays Home Unders: 1/3

6.12.11: Total @ 7. Volquez v. Sanchez.

Even though Volquez is inconsistent, he has shown the ability to shut down poor offenses. Sanchez is either awesome or seems to walk too many. This will be a close one.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-12-11, 10:40 PM

Blind Giants Unders: 12/18

Another under comes home. Road series starts Tuesday @ Arizona. Dropping the Rays from this and just going completely with the Giants. Going to get off the Rays home thing, but add two pitchers to track into a blind unders play - Paul Maholm [10/12] & Jered Weaver [10/13].

**dudekid** · 06-13-11, 12:14 AM

i like this idea, 12/18 is great and the giants offense clearly is hurting...might change up a little once panda comes back though

**clairvoyance** · 06-13-11, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by MoneyLineDawg

Winds gusting out to right-center.....I like the over here, anyone else?

and what makes you think that the books have completely overlooked this?