Pats would have been -7 vs. Raiders

**8ArIvd5** · 09-27-11, 07:29 PM

might tease oakland here

not a wong, but i think it's wight

**bashtron** · 09-27-11, 08:06 PM

I think New England rolls here. NE lost due to fluky turnovers last week while oakland won due to fluky turnovers last week. Add in a pissed off Brady and Belichick and you have the pats winning by double digits.

**pavyracer** · 09-27-11, 09:00 PM

NE has no defense. I'd take the points with Raiders and their superior running game that NE has no answers.

**jsmithj88** · 09-27-11, 09:07 PM

this is the type of game that can get out of hand very quickly.
buffalo had enuff firepower in the passing game to beat the pats
cant really say that about the raiders

**Ricki Roma** · 09-27-11, 09:22 PM

Love the pats here, deite the defense issues brady will be hot.

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

NE has no defense. I'd take the points with Raiders and their superior running game that NE has no answers.

The weakness of the Pats D is the secondary, specifically the safeties. They actually have a very good run defense, especially if Haynesworth is healthy enough to play. Good luck running up the middle with Haynesworth and Wilfork there. Also, Gerard Warren was just re-signed, so he adds depth to the middle of the line.

To beat the Pats defense, you need to attack the safeties. Chung is coming off thumb surgery, I don't know if he'll play. Sergio Brown has talent but is very inexperienced. Barrett sucks. If Dowling can play I'll feel a lot better, because he is the best CB right now. It would also allow him and Bodden to rotate at CB and S, keeping Barrett off the field.

I wouldn't make a play on this game, especially if I liked the Raiders, until the injury report for the Pats D comes out.

**Sunde91** · 09-27-11, 09:56 PM

Brady 21-11 ATS afer a SU loss

"superior running game that NE has no answers"

Pavy once again with the quality insight. NE is 10th in League in run D. That has "no answers" for Oak's #1 rushing O? They aren't outscoring NE on the ground.

Pat's weakness on D is against the pass, 32nd. Oak's weakness on O is the pass, 26th.
Oak's weakness on D is against the pass, 28th. NE 1st in Pass O.

OAK is a team with zero experience, 1st time head coach, riding their high of highs after Jets win and now playing against a focused team of veterans with best coach and top 2 O in Football

**pavyracer** · 09-27-11, 10:02 PM

Just ask the Jets who beat the Patriots on the road last year how it feels getting their asses kicked in Oakland. Take the generous 4.5 points with the home dog. The Raiders are for real.

**sneakerhead** · 09-27-11, 10:03 PM

Patriots after a straight up loss are pretty lethal

**frostno98** · 09-27-11, 10:23 PM

I think the Raiders will get alot of action from the public. The just beaten the Jets down, although the Jets could blew the Raiders out if they didn't self implode early. And then the Bills. The Raiders should of beaten the Bills. Since the Bills beat the Patriots, everyone thinks the Raiders who should of beaten the Bills, be good to cover a 4 point spread.

**k13** · 09-27-11, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by frostno98

I think the Raiders will get alot of action from the public. The just beaten the Jets down, although the Jets could blew the Raiders out if they didn't self implode early. And then the Bills. The Raiders should of beaten the Bills. Since the Bills beat the Patriots, everyone thinks the Raiders who should of beaten the Bills, be good to cover a 4 point spread.

No they won't, public is blind, they'll be on NE no matter what. Look at all the picks on SBR, all NE almost.

**zsr** · 09-27-11, 10:34 PM

Dont forget to factor in east coast team going to west coast..Im on oakland

**Red Devil** · 09-27-11, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

NE has no defense. I'd take the points with Raiders and their superior running game that NE has no answers.

I agree with this 100% the raiders will steam roll the clock.

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by zsr

Dont forget to factor in east coast team going to west coast..Im on oakland

Since when was east to west a factor?

**zsr** · 09-27-11, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by rsnnh12

Since when was east to west a factor?

How is going through 3 time zones not a factor? Same difference as west to east. Even without that oakland covers. GL

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by zsr

How is going through 3 time zones not a factor? Same difference as west to east. Even without that oakland covers. GL

The theory is for west coast teams going east for 1 pm games, because it feels like 10 am to them. East going west, a 4 pm game feels like 7 pm. Hardly an issue, since the entire theory is predicated on the west coast teams playing at what feels like a very early time so they may be sluggish.

**zsr** · 09-27-11, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by rsnnh12

The theory is for west coast teams going east for 1 pm games, because it feels like 10 am to them. East going west, a 4 pm game feels like 7 pm. Hardly an issue, since the entire theory is predicated on the west coast teams playing at what feels like a very early time so they may be sluggish.

I always looked at it from the time of travel, not the time the game starts. Your right, my bad.

**wantitall4moi** · 09-27-11, 10:57 PM

Lines are made in the preseason, I suspect that one was maybe -5 and it opened a point lower to get a feel for what people are thinking. If the season had gone to plan and Oak was 1-2 or 0-3 and NE was 3-0 and rolling people they post -6 and get all the suckers who like to bet teasers to a PK. That is a notorious approach for books usually starting in week 5 and going til maybe week 8 or 9. So either way they take a chance that Oak is better. Now the cover is blown so they throw up a throw away number of 4. Basically -4 is the biggest pussy number a book can post. it is basically a white flag in terms of they dont have a clue as to what might happen. They do it and hope they get enough sneaky money to get a more hardcore line by kick off. But posting a 4 takes all teasers off the board so their book keeping on the game is pretty straight forward.

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by zsr

I always looked at it from the time of travel, not the time the game starts. Your right, my bad.

Good luck with your play. I'm not touching either side til we see who's out.

**k13** · 09-27-11, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

Lines are made in the preseason, I suspect that one was maybe -5 and it opened a point lower to get a feel for what people are thinking. If the season had gone to plan and Oak was 1-2 or 0-3 and NE was 3-0 and rolling people they post -6 and get all the suckers who like to bet teasers to a PK. That is a notorious approach for books usually starting in week 5 and going til maybe week 8 or 9. So either way they take a chance that Oak is better. Now the cover is blown so they throw up a throw away number of 4. Basically -4 is the biggest pussy number a book can post. it is basically a white flag in terms of they dont have a clue as to what might happen. They do it and hope they get enough sneaky money to get a more hardcore line by kick off. But posting a 4 takes all teasers off the board so their book keeping on the game is pretty straight forward.

This line was -7.5 a few weeks ago.

**Stevedore** · 09-27-11, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Just ask the Jets who beat the Patriots on the road last year how it feels getting their asses kicked in Oakland. Take the generous 4.5 points with the home dog. The Raiders are for real.

Pats should be favored by 7 over the Raiders. If they were favored by 7 over Buffalo, and Buffalo beat the Raiders, why are the Pats only favored by 4?
The Raiders are 3 points better than the Bills, because that's what this spread is really saying.

**lakerboy** · 09-27-11, 11:07 PM

Good luck sunde. I'm on oak +4.5. The raiders will run the ball all over the pats and chew up the clock. Seymour will tee off on his opponent and the black hole will be rocking. NE isn't as good as people think. They could be 0-3 right now with a few bad bounces. They haven't been able to stop anyone. Oak is a good team and getting 4.5 at home is a good play that I'm on.

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck sunde. I'm on oak +4.5. The raiders will run the ball all over the pats and chew up the clock. Seymour will tee off on his opponent and the black hole will be rocking. NE isn't as good as people think. They could be 0-3 right now with a few bad bounces. They haven't been able to stop anyone. Oak is a good team and getting 4.5 at home is a good play that I'm on.

Lol. This is what happens when people don't watch the games and just look at stats. Cmon LB, let your hatred of the Pats go

**BigDan** · 09-27-11, 11:13 PM

dont get me wrong, i understand Oak will have to pass and their passing attack certainly isnt the Bills. that said if Ford comes back and w the emergence of moore oak has speed to burn and a playcaller that knows how to use it. Maybe Bellichek can trick Campbell into some mistakes, but i know damn well oaks wrs can make pats pay if they continue playing that coverage scheme they been running thus far. And yes pats run D are no slouches but oak is a very physical team and whether or not they can gash pats d they will def force them to leave mismatches on outside and grind out yards with the run gm, injury report important for both teams and honestly doubt i wanna be involved here cause there really no arguing against the pats and what they do after losses. tough game imho, ill prob let you all battle it out and look elsewhere.

Gun to head id play the raiders but like i said, not confident and rather pass.

**lakerboy** · 09-27-11, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by rsnnh12

Lol. This is what happens when people don't watch the games and just look at stats. Cmon LB, let your hatred of the Pats go

Maybe you should stop being a blind homer. I'm one of belichicks biggest fans. I don't watch the games lol. Did you watch the first three games? Ne is getting destroyed on defense. They can't stop a dead turtle. I didn't say ne loses. I say oak +4.5 is money. Big difference pal. You aren't betting this game right? Why not?

**lakerboy** · 09-27-11, 11:23 PM

All pats bettors are going wwith the theory ne always bounces back after a loss. Books make money on that shit.

**iifold** · 09-27-11, 11:26 PM

Cant take it anymore, you guys are bringing me out of retirement...

Raiders only hope is bad weather, and even then they'll be lucky to be in the game...

Told you guys exactly what would happen weeks ago...

Royalty Play (Patriots@Raiders) Oct. 2nd...

**MoneyLineDawg** · 09-27-11, 11:30 PM

The Patriots are an overrated, soft, east-coast team with one of, if not, the worst defense in the league heading out west to play in a hostile environment against a hard-nosed, physical team riding high on momentum that is still undervalued

Hard-nosed Raiders are the type of team that can beat the Patriots

Gimmie the points all day long, and sprinkle a little on the Raiders ML......This game should be a pick em

**rsnnh12** · 09-27-11, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Maybe you should stop being a blind homer. I'm one of belichicks biggest fans. I don't watch the games lol. Did you watch the first three games? Ne is getting destroyed on defense. They can't stop a dead turtle. I didn't say ne loses. I say oak +4.5 is money. Big difference pal. You aren't betting this game right? Why not?

Blind homer? Is that why I have yet to play the Pats ATS this year? In fact, I've made posts saying the value is on their opponents so far. You said they could be 0-3 if they had a few bad bounces. If you watched the games you'd know that's not true. They dominated the Dolphins, did pretty well against the Chargers, and had a bunch of bad bounces in Buffalo and still almost won.

I said I'm not betting this game yet, not that I wont. If Dowling, Chung, and Haynesworth don't play, Oak + whatever is a solid play. If all 3 play, I honestly don't know what, if anything I would play as far as a side goes. Depends on the line at the time. The best values so far have been props for the Pats, and I will probably play more of those. 4-0 so far on prop plays, all posted.

I'd automatically recommend playing Gronkowski to score a TD at what should be + money, he's Brady's favorite red zone target. Other than that, I need to see the lines before I make a play.

**GunShard** · 09-27-11, 11:48 PM

Tease the Over on this game.

**lakerboy** · 09-27-11, 11:50 PM

Raiders ml dropping like a dead fly. Are sharps scalping?

**marcoloco** · 09-28-11, 12:03 AM

i dont trust the raiders

**marcoloco** · 09-28-11, 12:04 AM

would love to see them take down the pats but i have to take the pats ATS

**Ricki Roma** · 09-28-11, 12:08 AM

How do u not bet pats moneyline here?