How often do favorites win outright?

[elgreco]

Question:

If my goal is to pick more outright winners than the next guy, am I wrong to think that blindly picking favorites is the way to go?

Background:

I am currently nursing a 2 game lead in a Straight up Pick'em Cumulative Office Pool and I'd really like to preserve this lead for the rest of the season. I got to this point by going with my gut feeling on the games, but now that I'm ahead, I'm wondering if I should switch to a favorites-only style in order to preserve my lead.

My running theory is that no one caps games better than vegas, and that the correct thing to do at this point is to only pick favorites since that should give me my best chance of holding onto this lead. In my mind, if I only pick favorites and end up losing, then my loss is just chalked up to bad luck instead of a flawed philosophy.

What do you think? Am I seeing this clearly or is my vision skewed here?

[AlwaysDrawing]

You're an idiot.

[elgreco]

Thanks for the helpful response. If you'd be kind enough to point out specifically where my logic is flawed, it would be appreciated.

[elgreco]

Ah, got bumped to players talk. That explains the clown above.

[k13]

68% in the nfl this year

75% in cfb

76% in cbb

54% in nhl

[hels]

68% in the nfl this year 75% in cfb 76% in cbb 54% in nhl

Source?

[Glitch]

maybe you should instead of "picking favorites" just avoid picking underdogs- and still go with your gut but just restrict it a bit by these parameters.

favorites lose all the time but i think when someone who knows sports predicts who is going to win- that more often holds up when that predicted 'team' is a favorite.

[k13]

Source?

covers.com

I have a more detailed one for the NFL myself.

[Ra77er]

Vegas is looking to set a line that will generate action on both sides, even if they perceive a team will win they may make them a small dog to generate action on the other side so you'd have to be careful. Heavy favorites would be a little "safer" but small fav's can be trouble.


Either way good luck!!