What edge do you have in Sports Betting?

**BigCap** · 08-26-08, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Data

Theoretically speaking I certainly should. I would need a $100,000,000 bankroll though. And since you are asking what I would do then I can tell you that if I had $100,000,000 bankroll I would not be applying it in this field. So, the answer, again, for me personally, is no, I would not place another +EV bet.

In general, better EV bets > bigger bankroll.

**Sforz** · 08-26-08, 01:14 PM

nm

**tomcowley** · 08-26-08, 10:21 PM

Ganchrow had a post about marking a bet to market to determine future wagers. I have an excel solver (that's really simple) to calculate how much to bet at new odds when I already have an inputted risk/win position. When it's just a question of adding on at a second-best number because you're limited on how much you can get down at the best number, it's purely a math decision. (When you're debating an add-on because the market has moved, then you have other issues).

**Data** · 08-26-08, 11:48 PM

tomcowley:
Yes, I was implying one should use Ganchrow's Excel spreadsheet to decide how much add to the existing position after the line move.

donjuan:
I misspoke when I said I would need $100,000,000 bankroll to make an additional bet. $50,000,000 is enough to justify a bet, albeit a small one. $100,000,000 bankroll is needed to move the line another 0.5 where it should be. The point I am trying to make that the line will stop 0.5 points off due to these reasons.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 12:25 AM

I misspoke when I said I would need $100,000,000 bankroll to make an additional bet. $50,000,000 is enough to justify a bet, albeit a small one. $100,000,000 bankroll is needed to move the line another 0.5 where it should be. The point I am trying to make that the line will stop 0.5 points off due to these reasons.

So that would really only require 250 bettors with an average bankroll of 200k to do this...

**BigCap** · 08-27-08, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

So that would really only require 250 bettors with an average bankroll of 200k to do this...

Let me get this straight: you are down at 3 books $30k on a bet with 6% edge. You are going to bet more at only +0.5% edge?

**Data** · 08-27-08, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

So that would really only require 250 bettors with an average bankroll of 200k to do this...

They will go unnoticed.

**Data** · 08-27-08, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by BigCap

In general, better EV bets > bigger bankroll.

BigCap, I do not know what you meant here.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 01:02 AM

They will go unnoticed.

Expand...

**Data** · 08-27-08, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Expand...

What are you getting at? Just say it.

I am signing off for today though.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 01:16 AM

What are you getting at? Just say it.

I am signing off for today though.

I'm saying that 250 advantage bettors with an average bankroll of 200k would be no different than one person having a $50 million bankroll for the purpose of the question.

**Data** · 08-27-08, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I'm saying that 250 advantage bettors with an average bankroll of 200k would be no different than one person having a $50 million bankroll for the purpose of the question.

Depending on the assumptions you made this can imply anything.

Again, what are you getting at? Just say it.

**BigCap** · 08-27-08, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by Data

BigCap, I do not know what you meant here.

Simply that one is better off playing juicy +EV bets with a smaller bankroll than small +EV bets with a large bankroll, all other things being equal.

**dwaechte** · 08-27-08, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by BigCap

Simply that one is better off playing juicy +EV bets with a smaller bankroll than small +EV bets with a large bankroll, all other things being equal.

Huh?

You can't really make a blanket statement like that. It's all proportional.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 03:05 PM

Again, what are you getting at? Just say it.

I did say it. That your example of needing a $50 million bankroll is no different than 250 bettors having an average bankroll of $200k to make that line efficient.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 03:06 PM

Simply that one is better off playing juicy +EV bets with a smaller bankroll than small +EV bets with a large bankroll, all other things being equal.

EV matters little. EG is what matters.

**Heartman2** · 08-27-08, 03:48 PM

I agree with coldhardfacts here. Don't worship the linesmaker! They make mistakes in every sport.

In my opinion, the best way to find an edge in sports betting is to SPECIALIZE!!!

Become a hard core research junkie and you will win long term.

The hard core research junkie rules the gambling world!!!

The advantage gambler can't hold the research gamblers jock strap!

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 04:04 PM

The advantage gambler can't hold the research gamblers jock strap!

An advantage gambler is anyone who has an edge. Your post makes no sense.

**Heartman2** · 08-27-08, 04:16 PM

The best way to find an edge in sports betting is hard core research.

What kind of edge are you talking about DJ?

**Heartman2** · 08-27-08, 04:18 PM

Hard core research is more important than hard core line shopping.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 04:21 PM

The best way to find an edge in sports betting is hard core research.

The best way to find an edge in sports betting is to make a good model and line shop.

Hard core research is more important than hard core line shopping.

El to the Oh to the El.

**Heartman2** · 08-27-08, 04:26 PM

The guy who sits and watches game film, knows every player, has every stat memorized is at a much higher handicapping level and will win more money than the guy who sits and stares at the don best screen!

The hard core research gambler Kicks the hard core math guys @ss!!!

**coldhardfacts** · 08-27-08, 04:30 PM

Quote:
Hard core research is more important than hard core line shopping.
El to the Oh to the El.

Are you serious? Line shopping is definitely important, but it is secondary to research and handicapping. A DISTANT second at that.

**dwaechte** · 08-27-08, 04:32 PM

Ugh.

**Heartman2** · 08-27-08, 04:37 PM

The absolute best way to predict the outcome of a sporting event is thru hard core research.

It's not a coin flip! Thru hard core research, you can find an edge and beat the linesmaker!

**BigCap** · 08-27-08, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

EV matters little. EG is what matters.

What really matters is money in your pocket, i.e. profit.

I will take high +EV bets with a smaller bankroll compared to low +EV bets with a larger bankroll any day.

Expected growth is what it says, "expected". It promises no set return or "growth". This is why 21 card counters strive for the best edge possible, because they know that +2% is significantly better than +0.4%, even if the counting method is significantly more complex.

Simple question: what would you prefer, $100,000 bankroll playing $500 limits at +8% edge, or $1,000,000 bankroll playing $10,000 limits at +0.5% edge? Answer, please.

**Data** · 08-27-08, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

I'm saying that 250 advantage bettors with an average bankroll of 200k would be no different than one person having a $50 million bankroll for the purpose of the question.

Originally posted by donjuan

I did say it. That your example of needing a $50 million bankroll is no different than 250 bettors having an average bankroll of $200k to make that line efficient.

I said $100 million bankroll, to move the line, but that is unimportant.

To sum up, you postulated that there are advantage bettors who pound the books after 1 point line move and those advantage bettors have enough money and respect from the books to move the line 0.5 point farther.

There are so many holes in this story, I am going to point just to two. First, those bettors do not exists, I welcome you to prove otherwise. That ghost story is somewhat funny but the most amusing part is that those advantage bettors would be "pounding" the books with under-a-nickel bets.

**dwaechte** · 08-27-08, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by BigCap

What really matters is money in your pocket, i.e. profit.

Expected growth is what it says, "expected". It promises no set return or "growth". This is why 21 card counters strive for the best edge possible, because they know that +2% is significantly better than +0.4%, even if the counting method is significantly more complex.

Simple question: what would you prefer, $100,000 bankroll playing $500 limits at +8% edge, or $1,000,000 bankroll playing $10,000 limits at +0.5% edge? Answer, please.

You're still missing the point. To say "I will take high +EV bets with a smaller bankroll compared to low +EV bets with a larger bankroll any day." regardless of the situation(# of plays you're going to be making, exact bankrolls, exact edges) is ridiculous. Sure, your example works(depending on # of plays), but what about if you changed it to a $1 bankroll with a 6% edge, vs a $1,000,000 bankroll with a 5.9% edge?

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 07:15 PM

[QUOTE]

Are you serious? Line shopping is definitely important, but it is secondary to research and handicapping. A DISTANT second at that.

You can beat sports betting by simply line shopping the market. It's very easy and simple. There are plenty of other ways that have high edges without doing much work like correlated parlays and Wong teasers. Find a basketball line that is 1.5 points off market value and you'll win over 55% of the time. I doubt your "research" will do the same.

The guy who sits and watches game film, knows every player, has every stat memorized is at a much higher handicapping level and will win more money than the guy who sits and stares at the don best screen!

Definitely not for baseball and probably not for basketball, hockey or football.

The absolute best way to predict the outcome of a sporting event is thru hard core research.

It really isn't.

What really matters is money in your pocket, i.e. profit.

I will take high +EV bets with a smaller bankroll compared to low +EV bets with a larger bankroll any day.

Expected growth is what it says, "expected". It promises no set return or "growth". This is why 21 card counters strive for the best edge possible, because they know that +2% is significantly better than +0.4%, even if the counting method is significantly more complex.

Simple question: what would you prefer, $100,000 bankroll playing $500 limits at +8% edge, or $1,000,000 bankroll playing $10,000 limits at +0.5% edge? Answer, please.

Assuming -110, I would prefer the 8% bet because it has higher expected growth. Your optimal bet size for the .5% edge bet is only $5500, FYI.

There are so many holes in this story, I am going to point just to two. First, those bettors do not exists, I welcome you to prove otherwise. That ghost story is somewhat funny but the most amusing part is that those advantage bettors would be "pounding" the books with under-a-nickel bets.

Please show your work for the optimal bet sizes for bettors when the line is off by .5 point after having already moved 1 point on their previous bet. Also, why is that so unbelievable that there would be that many people with that sized bankroll? Not every advantage gambler posts on SBR, you know.

**smitch124** · 08-27-08, 07:23 PM

[QUOTE=donjuan;990335]

You can beat sports betting by simply line shopping the market. It's very easy and simple. There are plenty of other ways that have high edges without doing much work like correlated parlays and Wong teasers.

Don can you explain what you mean by correlated parlays, or point in a direction where I can learn more about them?

**Data** · 08-27-08, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

Please show your work for the optimal bet sizes for bettors when the line is off by .5 point after having already moved 1 point on their previous bet.

I did my work and showed you the results. The Kelly multiplier I used is 0.2. If you have a problem with that then please show me your work.

Also, why is that so unbelievable that there would be that many people with that sized bankroll? Not every advantage gambler posts on SBR, you know.

There are NO advantage bettors with Kelly bankroll as small as $200,000. Show me an advantage bettor and I will show you a bettor with at least $1 million Kelly bankroll.

**Bullajami** · 08-27-08, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Data

There are NO advantage bettors with Kelly bankroll as small as $200,000. Show me an advantage bettor and I will show you a bettor with at least $1 million Kelly bankroll.

You lost me here, Data. Why can't an advantage Kelly bettor have a smaller BR? Do they all start out rich?

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 07:35 PM

Don can you explain what you mean by correlated parlays, or point in a direction where I can learn more about them?

Sure. A correlated parlay would be one where two events show enough correlation to show a profit blindly parlaying them with no opinion on the game. One such example would be large favorites and the over in football. Say a team is -42.5 and the O/U is 45. It should be pretty obvious that parlaying -42.5 and O 45 would show a profit as the majority of the time they win by more than 42 the total will go over 45 and you'll be getting +264 on that. Rarely would the degree of correlation be this high, but you can definitely find events that are correlated and parlay them. However, I'd beware of trying these at Sportsbook.com.

**durito** · 08-27-08, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by Heartman2

The guy who sits and watches game film, knows every player, has every stat memorized is at a much higher handicapping level and will win more money than the guy who sits and stares at the don best screen!

The hard core research gambler Kicks the hard core math guys @ss!!!

I have my highest hold on sports where I've never once seen one minute of a single game. And off the top of my head I couldn't name more than a few players from the entire league.

The absolute best way to predict the outcome of a sporting event is thru hard core research.

If by hard core research you mean developing and testing a proper model, then sure.

The "math guys" dominate these markets now. To the point where I know I need to learn a lot more before I even go near some of the bigger ones.

**donjuan** · 08-27-08, 07:39 PM

There are NO advantage bettors with Kelly bankroll as small as $200,000. Show me an advantage bettor and I will show you a bettor with at least $1 million Kelly bankroll.

So that only further proves my point and would serve to make lines more efficient. So you would only need 100 bettors with average bankroll size of $1,000,000 betting 1/5 Kelly to move the line to efficiency. You seem to be all over the place with regards to your argument.

P.S. Every advantage bettor has a bankroll of at least $1,000,000? WTF?