Red Sox continue to reinforce their playoff odds
Boston may have slammed the door on the Yankees this week taking two of three in New York. Now the Red Sox, despite being banged up with injuries, set their sights on the Tampa Bay Rays and the AL East title.
The waiver wire has come up with another goodie. Mark Kotsay, as was expected days in advance, has been dealt from the Atlanta Braves to the Boston Red Sox. He’s playing right field and replacing the injured J.D. Drew in the batting order.
Kotsay has a reputation as a strong defensive outfielder. So does Jason Bay, who replaced Manny Ramirez in left field at Fenway Park. But like Bay, Kotsay’s defense has diminished over the last few years. He went from +21 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 to just +2 FRAR in 2006. Then Kotsay had back surgery and missed the first two months of the 2007 campaign.
That iffy back makes Kotsay less of an improvement over Coco Crisp, who rode the pine Thursday in Kotsay’s Boston debut. Although Kotsay (.758 OPS with the Braves) is a better hitter than Crisp (.716 OPS), the Red Sox pay a price in defense by removing Crisp’s +14 FRAR from the outfield and putting Kotsay’s +4 in its place.
At least Boston gets to have a choice. Crisp is a switch-hitter; Kotsay bats left. They will both be useful as the Sox try to ride out this wave of injuries and make it to the playoffs. The betting odds like them; Boston is 5-2 to win the AL pennant, behind only the L.A. Angels at 3-2.
Coming up this weekend...
Dodgers at Diamondbacks
Game 1: Friday, 9:40 p.m. Eastern
LAD: Hiroki Kuroda
ARI: Doug Davis
Game 2: Saturday, 8:10 p.m.
LAD: Chad Billingsley
ARI: Dan Haren
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN2)
LAD: Derek Lowe
ARI: Brandon Webb
The Dodgers are very close to blowing it. Even with Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux added to the lineup, Los Angeles has lost seven road games in a row – consecutive sweeps at the hands of Philadelphia and Washington. Yes, Washington. The Dodgers dropped 9.27 units on the road to ruin and fell 3.5 games behind Arizona in the National League West.
The decline of Jeff Kent (.739 OPS) cannot be ignored any longer, even on a team that has seen much worse in Andruw Jones (.514 OPS). Seamheads would point out that Kent was L.A.’s most productive hitter last year at 23.0 bRAA (batting Runs Above Average), but at age 40, he’s fallen to 1.4 bRAA in 2008 – still useful, but still a major downgrade.
Arizona is a -120 favorite for the series opener with a total of 8½ runs. Hardluck Hiroki Kuroda (3.87 ERA, 3.84 tRA) goes for the Dodgers, who are only 11-14 in his 25 starts thanks to a paltry 3.6 runs per game in support. The under is 15-10 for Kuroda’s games. Doug Davis (4.63 ERA, 4.24 tRA) has been serviceable for the Diamondbacks, although they’re only 7-13 in his 20 appearances.
White Sox at Red Sox
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
CHW: Javier Vazquez
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2: Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
CHW: Mark Buehrle
BOS: David Pauley
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 p.m.
CHW: Gavin Floyd
BOS: Tim Wakefield
Josh Beckett was originally slated to start Friday night’s game, but he’s been taken out of the rotation with a nagging elbow problem. Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.98 ERA, 4.47 tRA) was going to pitch Saturday on five days’ rest; instead, he’ll take his usual four. This also means a start for David Pauley, who gave up five runs in 4.1 innings to the Angels on Apr. 22 and was promptly banished to the minors.
Boston comes into this series off a very successful 6-3 road trip that included a series win at Yankee Stadium – presumably Boston’s last visit to the hallowed park, since it’s highly doubtful they’ll be meeting in the playoffs this year. Matsuzaka has been one of the most profitable pitchers in the majors (12.13 units on a 19-4 record), and perhaps one of the luckiest, judging by his inflated tRA and his 4.94 xFIP. The Red Sox are -164 favorites in Game 1 with a total of 9½.
Boston may have slammed the door on the Yankees this week taking two of three in New York. Now the Red Sox, despite being banged up with injuries, set their sights on the Tampa Bay Rays and the AL East title.
The waiver wire has come up with another goodie. Mark Kotsay, as was expected days in advance, has been dealt from the Atlanta Braves to the Boston Red Sox. He’s playing right field and replacing the injured J.D. Drew in the batting order.
Kotsay has a reputation as a strong defensive outfielder. So does Jason Bay, who replaced Manny Ramirez in left field at Fenway Park. But like Bay, Kotsay’s defense has diminished over the last few years. He went from +21 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 to just +2 FRAR in 2006. Then Kotsay had back surgery and missed the first two months of the 2007 campaign.
That iffy back makes Kotsay less of an improvement over Coco Crisp, who rode the pine Thursday in Kotsay’s Boston debut. Although Kotsay (.758 OPS with the Braves) is a better hitter than Crisp (.716 OPS), the Red Sox pay a price in defense by removing Crisp’s +14 FRAR from the outfield and putting Kotsay’s +4 in its place.
At least Boston gets to have a choice. Crisp is a switch-hitter; Kotsay bats left. They will both be useful as the Sox try to ride out this wave of injuries and make it to the playoffs. The betting odds like them; Boston is 5-2 to win the AL pennant, behind only the L.A. Angels at 3-2.
Coming up this weekend...
Dodgers at Diamondbacks
Game 1: Friday, 9:40 p.m. Eastern
LAD: Hiroki Kuroda
ARI: Doug Davis
Game 2: Saturday, 8:10 p.m.
LAD: Chad Billingsley
ARI: Dan Haren
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN2)
LAD: Derek Lowe
ARI: Brandon Webb
The Dodgers are very close to blowing it. Even with Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux added to the lineup, Los Angeles has lost seven road games in a row – consecutive sweeps at the hands of Philadelphia and Washington. Yes, Washington. The Dodgers dropped 9.27 units on the road to ruin and fell 3.5 games behind Arizona in the National League West.
The decline of Jeff Kent (.739 OPS) cannot be ignored any longer, even on a team that has seen much worse in Andruw Jones (.514 OPS). Seamheads would point out that Kent was L.A.’s most productive hitter last year at 23.0 bRAA (batting Runs Above Average), but at age 40, he’s fallen to 1.4 bRAA in 2008 – still useful, but still a major downgrade.
Arizona is a -120 favorite for the series opener with a total of 8½ runs. Hardluck Hiroki Kuroda (3.87 ERA, 3.84 tRA) goes for the Dodgers, who are only 11-14 in his 25 starts thanks to a paltry 3.6 runs per game in support. The under is 15-10 for Kuroda’s games. Doug Davis (4.63 ERA, 4.24 tRA) has been serviceable for the Diamondbacks, although they’re only 7-13 in his 20 appearances.
White Sox at Red Sox
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
CHW: Javier Vazquez
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2: Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
CHW: Mark Buehrle
BOS: David Pauley
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 p.m.
CHW: Gavin Floyd
BOS: Tim Wakefield
Josh Beckett was originally slated to start Friday night’s game, but he’s been taken out of the rotation with a nagging elbow problem. Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.98 ERA, 4.47 tRA) was going to pitch Saturday on five days’ rest; instead, he’ll take his usual four. This also means a start for David Pauley, who gave up five runs in 4.1 innings to the Angels on Apr. 22 and was promptly banished to the minors.
Boston comes into this series off a very successful 6-3 road trip that included a series win at Yankee Stadium – presumably Boston’s last visit to the hallowed park, since it’s highly doubtful they’ll be meeting in the playoffs this year. Matsuzaka has been one of the most profitable pitchers in the majors (12.13 units on a 19-4 record), and perhaps one of the luckiest, judging by his inflated tRA and his 4.94 xFIP. The Red Sox are -164 favorites in Game 1 with a total of 9½.