Don't Bet Heavily Juiced Lines

[CertainValor]

"Don't bet heavily juiced lines."

This is one of the most common pieces of advice given around here, by both sharp folks and squares alike. But it seems to me for everyone, that definition of "heavily juiced" is radically different. I was curious what you personally consider a heavily juiced line, and if you follow that rule?

[borednaz]

Heavy Juice to me is anything over -150. A rule I never follow which is why I parlay a lot. Which is why I make quick big hits, withdrawal fast, and tend to go bust shortly after. I should tell myself no plays over that. But like I said that is not how I gamble.

[govolz]

Anything over 160 to me is heavily juiced

[str]

2-5 shots are death valley no matter what sport.

Always has been, always will be.

[BigDeem5]

No juice if you don't lose.

[PAULYPOKER]

Always bet on the +side, dogs ML,Favs RL....................

[dj_destroyer]

Heavily juiced is anything with 10 cents or more of vig...

These rookies above me don't know the difference between heavy juice and a heavy favourite...

[jjgold]

Many say no juice if you pick winners

A lot Of theories

[PAULYPOKER]

Many say no juice if you pick winners

No such thing...............

Juice is what kills the bettor.

this is the bread and butter of the industry,

simple mathematics,

keep juice to minimum is the key to success.......................

[dj_destroyer]

Many say no juice if you pick winners

A lot Of theories

They're retarded.

Before and after the game, there is juice on both sides.

Even if you pick winners, you are paying juice as you should have won more than you did.

Example:
If a book charges the standard 20 cent vig and you take a 'pick em' play @ -110 and they win. You only won $100 instead of $110 you should have if there was no juice involved.

People are stupid.

[mynameismud]

-140+ are heavily juiced game imo.

[Cicima6709]

Who cares what line you bet? As long as you have the edge.

My most of my plays fall into the -150 to -200 range.

[jgilmartin]

You guys need to think in terms of implied probabilities, not cents. Here are two games from this past saturday (CRIS closing line):

CHC +265
LAD -315

LAA -101
CHW -119

Which lines have more juice?

[k13]

No such thing...............

Juice is what kills the bettor.

this is the bread and butter of the industry,

simple mathematics,

keep juice to minimum is the key to success.......................

So if you bet every ML favorite in the NFL last year, how much money would you have lost?

[yisman]

Heavily juiced is anything with 10 cents or more of vig...

These rookies above me don't know the difference between heavy juice and a heavy favourite...

Yep. I often see this mistake being made.

You guys need to think in terms of implied probabilities, not cents. Here are two games from this past saturday (CRIS closing line):

CHC +265
LAD -315

LAA -101
CHW -119

Which lines have more juice?

The Angels game, even though it has less 'cents', there's more juice there.

[PAULYPOKER]

So if you bet every ML favorite in the NFL last year, how much money would you have lost?

This approach is meant for MLB/NHL................

NFL/NBA is 10% ATS juice, so it is best to just play the lines,the juice can still kill ya though..........

[durito]

wow

[iifold]

an edge is an edge...

unless of course your next bet is your last....

[CertainValor]

Interesting thoughts folks, thanks for sharing.

For me this has been shape shifting. I've been at this for about three years now. When I started, before I knew SBR was a thing, I would literally just bet small amounts on every NFL game. I've gradually been improving what I'd consider to be my understanding over time. When I started with SBR last year, I was putting way too much money on long odds parlays. A big hurdle for me as I start back up this year has been to get away from what would *seem* to be attractive plays by actually doing the math on the juice and recognizing how little value I'm getting for some of my bets.

Right now, anything beyond -200 can really cripple my analysis. I'll spend 3 or 4 hours looking into numbers/information on a -200 that I like and then usually conclude that I've no better information than I began with and go with something else.

In this way, being extremely cautious has actually proved beneficial, even though the sample is small. I'm winning for a change, and that's nice, but having a difficulty finding the balance between being overly conservative and reckless.

[Seto]

Many say no juice if you pick winners

A lot Of theories

Yes but no-one picks 100% winners, hence there always is juice. You need 55% winners at least on -120, 53% on -110, 50% on +100 etc, so yeah, juice matters and the more you pay the higher win % you impose on yourself. It's all about value

[poloyol]

I commonly wager on games that range from +125 to -145...Rarely go for the long shots
Always wager 5% - 10% of my bankroll
Wager on 1 or 2 plays a day
Don't pressure any plays...
If i don't see anything,i take the night off

[lunchbawks]

Too many betting options to bet big favs, if u look hard enouh u will find +150 plays just as good as -150 plays

[GunShard]

Nadal lost at Wimbledon at -10000.


My personal rules on sports gambling:
1. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ

10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.

[BIGDAY]

I like juice.

[CertainValor]

Nadal lost at Wimbledon at -10000.


My personal rules on sports gambling:
1. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ

10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.

GunShard! Thanks. I think I've actually read you post this once or twice in other threads. I'm considering taping it to forehead. :P

[Sunde91]

Simpletons say this. It is not ideal, but to dismiss it automatically is dumb.

If markets are efficient you're losing just the same at -110 or -400.
If markets aren't efficient, why would you pass on -500 when the line should be -1000. 1) Your bankroll isn't big enough for you to be comfortable laying that much. 2) You can't spot it.

[Waterstpub87]

Simpletons say this. It is not ideal, but to dismiss it automatically is dumb.

If markets are efficient you're losing just the same at -110 or -400.
If markets aren't efficient, why would you pass on -500 when the line should be -1000. 1) Your bankroll isn't big enough for you to be comfortable laying that much. 2) You can't spot it.

One of the best posts I've seen on this topic.

[jayc88]

i got buried today betting huge favs,
had china and russia in womans volleyball ( -330 & -180),
china had 2 matchpoints and russia had 6 matchpoints and both lost by 2 points in the 5 th set,
i will never bet on this fking sport again

[PAULYPOKER]

^All it takes is one loss on a heavy fav, to lose all confidence, which always leads to your own burial.........................

[TheCentaur]

Nadal lost at Wimbledon at -10000.


My personal rules on sports gambling:
1. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ

10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.

Nice
I have to say i disagree with #s 8,10,11,13,14

#8-If you make a parlay with +ev bets only the variance is increased not the juice
#10-This home dog fairytale has been known about too long. It's -ev these days
#11-Unforseen injuries could help or hurt you. Also, identifying where the line will move early on makes people lots of money
#13-If you bet frequently enough and have the bankroll it's like buying a cd
#14-Sometimes unpredictability is your friend
Just my opinions, could be wrong

[GunShard]

GunShard! Thanks. I think I've actually read you post this once or twice in other threads. I'm considering taping it to forehead. :P

lol