Why is Scott Kazmir getting no respect?

**LT Profits** · 10-27-08, 02:54 PM

I actually agree that this game is not playable at the current price, and I'd even concede that Kazmir has some value here. However, he has simply not pitched well since All-Star break, and I'd rather pass than jump on him now.

**element1286** · 10-27-08, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I actually agree that this game is not playable at the current price, and I'd even concede that Kazmir has some value here. However, he has simply not pitched well since All-Star break, and I'd rather pass than jump on him now.

I think it is playable on the Rays side but I am laying off of it because I don't trust Kazmir.

**LT Profits** · 10-27-08, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by element1286

I think it is playable on the Rays side but I am laying off of it because I don't trust Kazmir.

Similar to what I said.

**SBR Lou** · 10-27-08, 03:11 PM

Let's run a countdown of how many minutes it takes before Durito tells me what a square line of reasoning it is thinking Kazmirs getting slighted here?

**Chi_archie** · 10-27-08, 03:32 PM

first off, you can't really bet on the rays strongly based upon Kazmir.... as he doesn't get very far into games..... you have to go back to july 21st the last time he pitched into the 7th inning of a game. And that was against oakland.

prior to that, the only time he went 7+ was june 6

all told he had 5 games where he went 7 or more innings. 4 of exactly 7 innings, and 1 of exactly 8 innings... so even at his best he doesn't just dominate like hamels can.

secondly, Kazmir had a great May and he got so overated because of it. After may he was average, and progressively got less and less average.

take away his may, and he was 5-5 this year...

5 and freakin 5!!!!!

take away his may 37 innings and only 5 ER's and his year ERA was a quite pedestrian 4.70

**TheLock** · 10-27-08, 03:38 PM

How many Wins Kaz had post May is meaningless (Wins are a horrible indicator of a pitchers worth) but with that said, Kazmir has been a mere shell of himself for a long while now and I'm suprised he is a huge dog today.

Philly is hot and the public is pounding Hammels to close it out tonight.

I'm on over 7.5

**Chi_archie** · 10-27-08, 03:44 PM

well if you are betting sides on a game.... WINS are a the only indicator of a pitcher's worth... pretty strong correlation.

**element1286** · 10-27-08, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

well if you are betting sides on a game.... WINS are a the only indicator of a pitcher's worth... pretty strong correlation.

How many wins a pitcher has is meaningless. To argue otherwise is foolish.

**betplom** · 10-27-08, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by CrazyL

Let's run a countdown of how many minutes it takes before Durito tells me what a square line of reasoning it is thinking Kazmirs getting slighted here?

Or before DonJewon comes in to tell you how stupid you are.

**daggerkobe** · 10-27-08, 04:04 PM

Rays #3 & #4 batters 0-for-29 has something to do with it.

**betplom** · 10-27-08, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by daggerkobe

Rays #3 & #4 batters 0-for-29 has something to do with it.

With 15 or so strikeouts, yikes!

**jagaf22** · 10-27-08, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by daggerkobe

Rays #3 & #4 batters 0-for-29 has something to do with it.

I agree this is the biggest factor as to why the Rays currently trail 3-1!

**SBR Lou** · 10-27-08, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by betplom

With 15 or so strikeouts, yikes!

Total chokejob.

**TheLock** · 10-27-08, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

well if you are betting sides on a game.... WINS are a the only indicator of a pitcher's worth... pretty strong correlation.

wha?

WHIP is the first and foremost stat to look at for pitchers

ERA would fall somewhere below that.

WINS would be somewhere down here

**SBR Lou** · 10-27-08, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by betplom

Or before DonJewon comes in to tell you how stupid you are.

I know, right.

**Chi_archie** · 10-27-08, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by TheLock

wha?

WHIP is the first and foremost stat to look at for pitchers

ERA would fall somewhere below that.

WINS would be somewhere down here

you are right, I agree that wins is not a big indicator of a pitchers worth to a team.

my argument, and the reason I brought wins up, was Kazmir is NOT a reason to bet the Rays in general. Especially not tonight.

I think by and large people put way way too much emphasis on starting pitchers... that's all anyone talks about through a 162 game season. My point with Kaz's 5-5 record after a hot start, was that by and large he is NOT a big factor in his team winning or losing. Even less so then other pitchers for better of for worse.

because he leaves in the fifth or sixth inning 80% of the time, he gets no decision very often. He factors into the game but not as much as joe 6 pack would believe.

the main points are
a) starting pitchers are way over rated in betting
b) Kazmir is way over rated as a SP
c)to bet tb to win based on Kazmir outside of May gives you no edge, he won't win you a game more times then he will lose you a game.

secondary to all that, shouldn't have clouded the issue with the w-l record... but look at whatever stat you want, and Kazmir's progressively got worse as the year went on.

If you are gonna bet the rays, you bet them based on their how their hitters are going, and who is available in their bullpen. Rays had a great bullpen this year, they had a team with some clutch hitting and a knack for late inning rallies.

If you are betting on the Rays because of Kazmir, forgetting they are going against Hamels, and you aren't thinking about their slumping hitters then you are gonna lose more often then not.

**jjgold** · 10-27-08, 05:13 PM

I think Kazy has a sore arm of late and I would be weary to bet him.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I think Kazy has a sore arm of late and I would be weary to bet him.

Uhh. Did you see game one? I really don't think giving up 3 runs to the Phillies is all that bad. Take away the Utley HR in the first and he pitches a gem.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by CrazyL

Let's run a countdown of how many minutes it takes before Durito tells me what a square line of reasoning it is thinking Kazmirs getting slighted here?

That's ridiculous. The only thing either durito or dj would criticize you for is seeing value in the Rays and not taking them. I happen to agree with your assessment and am on the Rays myself. However, they would both advise being able to quantify your edge. Play it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-27-08, 05:28 PM

Philly Team Total OVER 4. Beat that in the last two and left a trail of men stranded in Game 1 when they only scored 4. 24 LOB. They should have scored at least 5 in that game.

**SBR Lou** · 10-27-08, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

That's ridiculous. The only thing either durito or dj would criticize you for is seeing value in the Rays and not taking them. I happen to agree with your assessment and am on the Rays myself. However, they would both advise being able to quantify your edge. Play it.

Thanks for the feedback, Monkey. I may come off hardheaded or stuck in my viewpoint sometimes, but the reality is I love to take in new information or constructive criticism from people.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by CrazyL

Thanks for the feedback, Monkey. I may come off hardheaded or stuck in my viewpoint sometimes, but the reality is I love to take in new information or constructive criticism from people.

Good to hear. GL tonight.

**juuso** · 10-27-08, 06:09 PM

I took a small bet on Rays, but I think over 7.5 is pretty solid bet here. Pinny has +118 for that.

This can of course stay as a very low scoring pitchers duel, but I do think there's good value on over.

Over also works as a sort of a cover bet for Rays. If Kaz gets hit early, over seems quite probable.

**ryanXL977** · 10-27-08, 06:13 PM

didnt you say the same thing g1

**ryanXL977** · 10-27-08, 06:14 PM

STOP BETTING RAYS
they are done
kazmir is mediocre
hammels is the best

**SBR Lou** · 10-27-08, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

kazmir is mediocre

I'm not too good at forecasting things, but I see stand-up in your future.

**ryanXL977** · 10-27-08, 06:20 PM

20-8 during the loffs
you want to chase rays on the road off 2 losses vs the best pitcher and pen in baseball, be my guest amigo

please move hammels below 170 for me
gracias

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 06:29 PM

Below -170 is still a sucker bet. Try below -160.

**crisp** · 10-27-08, 06:32 PM

i got some stones. i took rays -1.5 +272 and rays ml +169 for $50 each. my big bet is on the colts +4.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 06:32 PM

Always entertaining to hear the knowledgeable words of ryan. "He sucks." "They suck." "He's awesome." It's like hearing a six year old talk about the game.

**ryanXL977** · 10-27-08, 06:36 PM

a 6 yr old who doenst lose at mlb.

good call on galalrdo
a true ace

**MonkeyF0cker** · 10-27-08, 07:25 PM

Your ignorance is astounding. I'll leave it at that. Not worth my time.

**pimike** · 10-27-08, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Always entertaining to hear the knowledgeable words of ryan. "He sucks." "They suck." "He's awesome." It's like hearing a six year old talk about the game.

**ryanXL977** · 10-27-08, 07:31 PM

and yet you dont stop, so either your time is worhtless or it is worth your time

gallardo is an ace