Is poker a game of chance or skill?

[SharpAngles]

http://www.newsweek.com/poker-game-chance-or-skill-317083

Interesting new research implies it takes as little as 1500 hands to achieve your expectation in a game of online Texas hold'em. Could this be what we need to get poker the same classification as fantasy sports and free up the road blocks to getting money onto legit sites?

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115479

Link to the study for the real nerds out there.

Abstract

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

[jtoler]

Its both obviously.

[mpaschal34]

For carseller4.....it's all about luck.

[BeerDog99]

http://www.newsweek.com/poker-game-c...r-skill-317083

Interesting new research implies it takes as little as 1500 hands to achieve your expectation in a game of online Texas hold'em. Could this be what we need to get poker the same classification as fantasy sports and free up the road blocks to getting money onto legit sites?

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115479

Link to the study for the real nerds out there.

Abstract

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

Its both obviously.

The point and the blindingly obvious difference is, for the other "casino table games" (e.g. roulette, blackjack, craps...etc), there is no skill that determines the outcome of the game of chance. Any bet you make on a table game will not affect the outcome. You obviously can effect/better your odds, and that can be considered a skill, but you cannot affect the outcome.

In Poker, your actions/bets can and does affect the outcome. There obviously is a significant factor of luck once the money is in and there are no more actions but until that point, your actions affect the outcome.

I find the continued debate on skill vs luck is just silly.

[daneblazer]

In a vacuum, it's a game of chance. However, players can position/play themselves to have the better percentage of winning in a hand and in the long haul. That's where the skill comes in.

[SharpAngles]

Its both obviously.

Is that you Mr. Adelson?

[krk1030]

Luck is involved in just about everything...its a game of skill.

[Optional]

I think the key is the 1500 hand sample. We don't get to play that many hands against the same player too often in real life.

Obviously skill affects results but each hand on it's own is pretty random and those that want to look at it on that basis will.

[VeggieDog]

"Is poker a game of chance or skill?"

Yes.

[SharpAngles]

It's not 1500 hands against the same player or table, its 1500 hands at a given stake level, based on your past performance at the same stakes. The bulk of players at any level will have the same skill level relative to their competition. 20%will lose, 60% will break even and 20% will make money.

Basically, if you are beating the game for 10BB after at least 1500 hands you should expect the same result in the future. And if you're down 10BB you should expect to keep losing that amount unless you try to improve. To me that's the very definition of skill.

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

Good thread, gentlemen... spot on remarks.
(nice links, Sharpy)

Of course it's a skill game, and agree w/Doggy it's silly to think otherwise (nuff evidence already out there, empirical & scientific method).

Of course, still got idiots thinking gay lifestyle is a choice so...... (no worries steve, we know better! gay=HAPPY!... and you're one of the most cheerful fellas we know!!!)

[sinmiedo]

If you win is Skill.
if you loose is Luck ( bad luck)


in mathematical language would be like

S - L = bankroll
(skill) ( Luck)

[SharkAA]

It's a game of skill AND chance, obviously. There will always be a luck factor involved in poker, question is, how much it can be decreased by a skill factor from an individual poker player.

[katstale]

I think it depends on whether you are pro or non pro. Also, doesn't hurt if you are a founder or an insider.

[daneblazer]

Answer is obvious...


The game is rigged

[BeerDog99]

Rigged Shithole (tm)

[downsouth]

Obviously rigged.

[SharkAA]

SuperUsed, courtesy of:

[SharpAngles]

Of course, still got idiots thinking gay lifestyle is a choice so...... )

Unfortunately most of those same idiots are in D.C. with the power to decide this question for us. I hope this study and more like it get the coverage they deserve because I'm afraid the powers that be just don't get it and/or are already in Adelsons pocket.

[SharpAngles]

If you win is Skill.
if you loose is Luck ( bad luck)


in mathematical language would be like

S - L = bankroll
(skill) ( Luck)

[brainfreeze]

In a vacuum, it's a game of chance. However, players can position/play themselves to have the better percentage of winning in a hand and in the long haul. That's where the skill comes in.

The long haul means nothing... You can be in final 5, catch a lovely pair of Q's, someone shoves has AK... and now they flip a K on flop, now your out with fifty points again... only other choice is fold your queens. 7 places and still haven't went all the way, guess I don't have " the skill " as sbr said ... Joke

[indio]

Every time I see this question posed I have to chuckle. It's like asking does water boil at 212 degrees and freeze at 32 degrees? Of course poker is a game of skill, in fact, probably more than any other game there is.

You don't need another fancy study by some conglomerate, all one has to do is look at the heads up sit and go, know basic math, and have an IQ of over 75. The heads up sit and go is a match played between 2 players, head to head, where each player starts with the same amount of chips and only concludes when one player has all the other chips. This means that there are only 2 results possible for this game, either a win or a loss. There are different variants of this game but they all have only 2 possible outcomes. Now, many of us who play heads up sit and go's for a living play over 10,000 of these a year, and most who have played for years can attest to playing over 100,000 heads up sit and go's and have won around 55% of them.

Let's take a real good look at that last sentence. There are many documented players who have achieved around a 55% win rate after 100,000 games. To see the chances of this happening by random variance, let's look at the chances of coin flips, another event that has only 2 results. If I flipped a coin 100,000 times, the chances of me flipping heads 50,750 times (50.75%) is 1 in 1 million. The chances of me flipping 55,000 heads would be somewhere in the vicinity of hitting lotto 30 days in a row. It's beyond astronomical. If I typed the number, there would be so many zero's that the zero key would probably break. This is indisputable proof of the skill needed to obtain results like winning 55,000/100,000. It just cannot happen if it was luck. It's not possible. Ever.

Now let's look at the variance factor by reversing the equation. Let's look at someone who has a 55% expected chance of winning each game and see what the chances are of him not winning after a set amount of games.

1 game = 45%

10 games (5 wins or less)= 49.6%

25 games = 31.6%

50 games = 28.4%

100 games = 18.3 %

250 games = 6.4%

500 games = 1.4%

1000 games = 0.1%

2000 games = 0.0004% (1 in 250,000)

2250 games = 0.0001% (1 in 1 million)

All games have elements of chance in them, some more than you think. Even chess has some luck elements, but all games have their skill level determined by reducing the effects of variance. There are a lot of scratch golfers who can hold their own against a PGA pro for 9 holes, but have virtually no chance playing them 72 holes.

The reason poker is such a skillfull game is that it is much more than just the math, strategy, and psychology elements that are so vital to one's success.It has such a high level of variance in the short term that you can play well and lose, and lose often. This will test your emotional control, A LOT. Can you maintain a high level of play when things aren't going your way? It's hard to do, and this is where a lot of the hidden skills are vital.

As far as congress go's, they could care less if it's a skill game. When a casino owner who wants to eliminate new forms of competition gives millions of dollars to congressman for their re-election efforts, and also happens to be a Zionist who is a top AIPAC donor, those same congressman will say pretty much anything. And let's face it, most of these guys are not that bright. Sometimes it scares me to know some of them have law degrees.

[daneblazer]

Indio's post to most SBR posters...

[SharkAA]

Every time I see this question posed I have to chuckle. It's like asking does water boil at 212 degrees and freeze at 32 degrees? Of course poker is a game of skill, in fact, probably more than any other game there is.

You don't need another fancy study by some conglomerate, all one has to do is look at the heads up sit and go, know basic math, and have an IQ of over 75. The heads up sit and go is a match played between 2 players, head to head, where each player starts with the same amount of chips and only concludes when one player has all the other chips. This means that there are only 2 results possible for this game, either a win or a loss. There are different variants of this game but they all have only 2 possible outcomes. Now, many of us who play heads up sit and go's for a living play over 10,000 of these a year, and most who have played for years can attest to playing over 100,000 heads up sit and go's and have won around 55% of them.

Let's take a real good look at that last sentence. There are many documented players who have achieved around a 55% win rate after 100,000 games. To see the chances of this happening by random variance, let's look at the chances of coin flips, another event that has only 2 results. If I flipped a coin 100,000 times, the chances of me flipping heads 50,750 times (50.75%) is 1 in 1 million. The chances of me flipping 55,000 heads would be somewhere in the vicinity of hitting lotto 30 days in a row. It's beyond astronomical. If I typed the number, there would be so many zero's that the zero key would probably break. This is indisputable proof of the skill needed to obtain results like winning 55,000/100,000. It just cannot happen if it was luck. It's not possible. Ever.

Now let's look at the variance factor by reversing the equation. Let's look at someone who has a 55% expected chance of winning each game and see what the chances are of him not winning after a set amount of games.

1 game = 45%

10 games (5 wins or less)= 49.6%

25 games = 31.6%

50 games = 28.4%

100 games = 18.3 %

250 games = 6.4%

500 games = 1.4%

1000 games = 0.1%

2000 games = 0.0004% (1 in 250,000)

2250 games = 0.0001% (1 in 1 million)

All games have elements of chance in them, some more than you think. Even chess has some luck elements, but all games have their skill level determined by reducing the effects of variance. There are a lot of scratch golfers who can hold their own against a PGA pro for 9 holes, but have virtually no chance playing them 72 holes.

The reason poker is such a skillfull game is that it is much more than just the math, strategy, and psychology elements that are so vital to one's success.It has such a high level of variance in the short term that you can play well and lose, and lose often. This will test your emotional control, A LOT. Can you maintain a high level of play when things aren't going your way? It's hard to do, and this is where a lot of the hidden skills are vital.

As far as congress go's, they could care less if it's a skill game. When a casino owner who wants to eliminate new forms of competition gives millions of dollars to congressman for their re-election efforts, and also happens to be a Zionist who is a top AIPAC donor, those same congressman will say pretty much anything. And let's face it, most of these guys are not that bright. Sometimes it scares me to know some of them have law degrees.

You have just said it yourself there; poker is a game of skill and luck.

[brainfreeze]

Indio's post to most SBR posters...

I did completely miss what he's saying... The math and variance talk is worthless to me... If you make the right calls and catch cards, you win... If you don't you lose, it's funny how you can go through a whole tourney with nothing, make it to the final 7 or so, then cards start coming, I still can't win a flip, making a ton of excellent calls along the way.. Then others catch sets, AA, full houses, and all types of hands, and they run the leaderboards, but it always seems to be at the final table where cards actually have to be caught, or you will see the rail shortly..

[JAKEPEAVY21]

chance in the short term, skill in the long term.

[frankzig]

Except this shit software
all luck

[indio]

You have just said it yourself there; poker is a game of skill and luck.

So is golf, tennis, gin rummy, bowling, etc..

Practically every game where a players decisions can effect the results to his advantage or disadvantage is a game of skill and luck. Why poker constantly gets this idiotic question gets tiring.

I saw a golf tournament once where Ken Duke pulled an approach shot so bad he headed into a patch of trees and water, and somehow, he hit a tree and his ball caromed off another tree and bounced onto the green 5 feet from the cup where he then made a birdie and ended up winning the tournament by 1 shot. I've seen golfers hit shots so good they hit the flag stick and bounce off the green and into a hazard.

How about the draw for a golf tournament? I've seen many tournaments where the morning played calm with soft greens and by the time the afternoon wave tee's off the wind gets up to 20+mph, the greens get hard, and the scoring average goes up 3 strokes, and the next day, the wind is up in the morning and calms down in the afternoon. But we never hear about golf not being a skill game because after you play lots of holes and lots of tournaments, the best golfers predominantly make the most money. Poker is no different in that respect, except that anyone can play if they want to stake the money because all the money is generated by the players themselves.

[Auto Donk]

SuperUsed, courtesy of:

if you ever wondered what it looks like when a guy across the table from you during a trny wants to suck your kahk, wonder no more

[OTL]

Poker is something like 25% Luck, 75% skill. The luck factor keeps the fish coming so the sharks can feed on them. Can't think of many other activities where a highly skilled professional can lose occasionally to someone who doesn't know how to play the game. But that is what makes it so interesting.

[BarkingToad]

10% skill, 40% luck, 50% guts