Poker theory talk: You flop overs to the board

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-30-21, 10:04 AM

My thoughts on this are pretty simple. And u can ask the Poker Pros for follow-up:

1) The lower the flop, the more value top pair has. IE, 10-hi flop is relatively LOW. Tx is quite strong, so JJ is even stronger!

2) I think your bet-sizing is too small here. T9 flop connects to a lot of draws. Charge them odds that are too low.

You're over-thinking this. JJ is in the lead a HI % of the time.

One nice thing about the Polk/Neg broadcast is that they talk strategy quite a bit. Bet-sizing the flop is discussed frequently. KT flops (and really any two connected cards btw 9toK) make a lot of straight draws, so the flop bets are big, close to pot-size.

Can't live in fear. JJ (not Gold, but two Hooks) would be thrilled to bet this board. Might even get a guy to spas w/ a hand like J8, KQ, QJ etc.

**Crusherrr** · 01-30-21, 10:11 AM

Position is relevant here. But 3 bet pre for starters. You don't want to play JJ multiway- that's very silly.

As played it's hard to say because we don't know if you are first to act? Block bet is stupid on river too. You will get blown off so many good hands because you underrepped your hand pre by not 3 betting.

It's no wonder you run into these spots often and lose, sorry to say.

**Crusherrr** · 01-30-21, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Can't live in fear. JJ (not Gold, but two Hooks) would be thrilled to bet this board. Might even get a guy to spas w/ a hand like J8, KQ, QJ etc.

He would block a lot of draws too so he doesn't need to go super large on flop. But by not 3betting pre, he's allowed a larger range of hands to enter into the pot.

**juicername** · 01-30-21, 11:20 AM

As played, I'll check call river. He'll bet missed straight draws and maybe even try to get value with a strong 10.

Edit: would just like you bet flop and turn, probably a bit bigger though.

Edit 2: and like Crusherrr says, if you're in a multiway pot here with JJ you've done something wrong preflop, you've put yourself in an unnecessary tough spot.

Edit 3: The hand history is a mess. On the flop with two players checking to you it looks like we're IP. Then all of a sudden on turn you wonder if we should "check and give him control of the hand".

Position matters A LOT.

**Ian** · 01-30-21, 11:36 AM

First off, it is important to note position because that will effect how you want to play the hand. Suits are important too, because that will help with reading your opponent's hand, even if the board is a rainbow (one of every suit). That said, from what I can gather:

Preflop: Reraise. JJ is too strong of a hand to play passively.

Flop: As played, it looks like the preflop raiser checked, so go ahead and bet. You have a strong hand, so get value out of it. $17 is fine, but go larger if you've seen your opponents call down more with top pair or worse.

Turn: Which player called? If it's the preflop raiser, be a little cautious. He may have flopped a monster and is sandbagging. Still, you'll want to bet this if you are checked to. $40 is fine, but how much you'll want to bet depends on if there is a possible flush draw and the tendencies of the other players. Checking is a disaster if you're ahead because you're giving your opponent a free card to beat you.

River: Again, position and player tendencies are important. If the callers are behind you they are unlikely to have you beat because any hand that beats JJ would have raised at some point by now, and the river is unlikely to have helped them. They probably have either a bused draw or a T, so bet whatever amount you think they'd pay off with a T. $50ish is a decent default. If the caller is the preflop raiser in front of you, I'd check behind if the player is either very tight/afraid or aggressive enough to check/raise bluff the river. If he's more of a calling station then go ahead and bet.

Also, "overs" is short for "overcards" which are two unpaired cards higher than the board. Overpairs are pocket pairs higher than the board.

Just my opinion... GL

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-30-21, 11:51 AM

Also, "overs" is short for "overcards" which are two unpaired cards higher than the board.

I thought the same thing. Big thing here is that AT or KT would view that board as strong value. And u have that hand crushed.

**stevek173** · 01-30-21, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Crusherrr

Position is relevant here. But 3 bet pre for starters. You don't want to play JJ multiway- that's very silly.

As played it's hard to say because we don't know if you are first to act? Block bet is stupid on river too. You will get blown off so many good hands because you underrepped your hand pre by not 3 betting.

It's no wonder you run into these spots often and lose, sorry to say.

Don't be sorry at all, honesty is the foundation of any good conversation.

I couldn't disagree more on not limping with JJ. But then again, I'm a setminer and you play differently than I do. I limp QQ (yes, INCLUDING QQ - believe it or not) down (play aces and kings strong).

It works over the course of time if you have a diverse player pool. (that doesn't know you).

The odds of flopping a set are roughly one in eight. You often get paid WAY more than that if people don't know you. There's a lot more to it than that of course, but that's the cliff notes.

More to follow.

**stevek173** · 01-30-21, 11:08 PM

Alright now, first off a little background on me as a poker player. Roughly 20 years on and off, like many first online, then local games, then casinos, etc. At one point I would play 30 mid level sit and goes online with a buddy of mine on stars. We did alright looking back. Shit was funny as heck. Books read - not too much, but a few good ones that I remember - Sklansky, Harrington, etc .The reason I am telling you this is so that you know how I approach poker. What makes me the most money on a consistent basis and to be honest with the least amount of thought. I do love the game and yes tough decisions are intriguing but when you're not playing a home game with friends it's about profit. Whatever that is, play 4 or more tables at once. Yes, sick variance. Yes a consistent player pool gets to know you and doesn't pay you off on your sets.

Big Polk fan respect wise but haven't listened to enough of him due to time constraints. I do know that he will tell you that he got started setmining (mostly) as well. Obviously this was before Black Friday.

Anyway, first off thank you to Chucky for reminding me about Polk and DNegs. I forgot about them. My job is very highspeed - no complaints whatsoever - but I get very consumed in it.

in response to Chucky's 1st post:

1) Agreed - and the main goal here is to maximize profit against A10, etc. with JJ

2) Agreed

Hah - I overthink everything, that's just me. Good say, sir. Lol at the Gold comment and agreed on not living in fear. Awesome post, thank you.

Crusher again I disagree on raising JJ pretty much ever 9 handed. You're a more aggressive player than me and I respect that. Good point on me getting blown off of many spots the way I play but here's my retort to that - the guys blowing me off those hands are the same ones I trap when I flop the set (unless they know better). So, what equals more money - money lost in hands I'm blown off of or, profit from hands when I trap them and win? I say the latter. Agreed on my not 3 betting allowing a larger range of hands in the pot, and that's something I have decided is profitable my way as well - over the course of time.

Juicer -

Agreed on possibly bigger bets, but my sizing aims to not only to define the opponent's hand, but to maximize value from inferior hands (like I said A10, etc.) so I want them to feel some value in calling so that they pay me off.

Disagree with you and crusher on it being an unnecessary spot due to limping, but again my reasoning is estimated profit when flopping a set being greater than loss in other scenarios.

Agreed on hand history being a mess, it was off the top of my head tbh. I just wanted to get a cool theory conversation going.

Ian - agreed on position being important - but only so important the way I play. I mostly only think about position with aces and kings tbh. For instance often limp with Aces in first position hoping for a raise in which I 3 bet, etc.

Again agree to disagree on raising with JJ because I am setmining.

I changed my mind and agree with you guys on possibly larger bets to extract more value. I was more focusing on not driving off A10 etc., but I think you guys are right. Overthinking it, like Chucky said.

Very good points on the turn.

Very good point on the river as well as my poker slang being off, lol. Thank you for saying that, both you and Chuck. That's funny.

Good conversation and I appreciate it guys. To be honest I really got hooked trying to relive the pre Black Friday poker days and nothing too terrible happened, but this (along with getting back to guitar) is helping me get away from that. When I go back into the game as a hobby I aim to be a better player than I ever have been and you're helping with that, which is cool.

Any of you guys heard of Part Time Poker back in the day? Now defunct, but big staking site at which I was a staker and a stakee. I have a buddy that I played for that is now a very high level tourney player, awesome dude and friends with a lot of good players, might get into investing in some of their action.

Site was so good.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 05:41 AM

None of this was fake, ever btw and tyvm for the discussion.

**juicername** · 01-31-21, 07:10 AM

You said "here's a hand I run into often when playing (and lose)". What kind of hands are you usually up against that you lose to here?

My guess would be two pair/sets, hands that would have folded if you 3bet pre.

If you're not a great hand reader post, make the decision easier by defining your opponents hands as early as possible.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 12:03 PM

QQ

Sets I usually sniff out pretty early

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 12:05 PM

wrong thread sorry, lol

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-31-21, 03:25 PM

It's all good, Steve. If u listen to Ingram on the Polk/Neg broadcast, he talks about playing the flop quite a bit. His sidekick Landon is a very bright guy, like a GTO whiz.

Flop-play and subsequent streets ties to how ranges hit the board. JJ is the 1st PREMIUM hand that "flops well" < 50% of the time. 12% sets + 33% over-pairs = 45%.

If u "flop well" w/ JJ, (I think) u have to play aggressively. Can't fear being behind, b/c there are only a few hands you're behind. Middling cards like T9 hit a lot of straight draws and combo-draws.

Much more likely to be up against a combo draw than 2pair+. Like Crush says, JJ is a great straight blocker. KQ would be drawing to fewer outs (8) than they'd think (10).

In general, opponents don't like to throw away draws, so charge them to stay in the hand. Gd Luck, steve!

**JoeCool20** · 01-31-21, 03:37 PM

What did norm say on tv about JJ/ "Jack-Jack will kill your stack." or something like that. LOL

I'd rather get dealt 7 2 than JJ because I can fold 7 2 and not lose a lot of money on it.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

It's all good, Steve. If u listen to Ingram on the Polk/Neg broadcast, he talks about playing the flop quite a bit. His sidekick Landon is a very bright guy, like a GTO whiz.

Flop-play and subsequent streets ties to how ranges hit the board. JJ is the 1st PREMIUM hand that "flops well" < 50% of the time. 12% sets + 33% over-pairs = 45%.

If u "flop well" w/ JJ, (I think) u have to play aggressively. Can't fear being behind, b/c there are only a few hands you're behind. Middling cards like T9 hit a lot of straight draws and combo-draws.

Much more likely to be up against a combo draw than 2pair+. Like Crush says, JJ is a great straight blocker. KQ would be drawing to fewer outs (8) than they'd think (10).

In general, opponents don't like to throw away draws, so charge them to stay in the hand. Gd Luck, steve!

Chucky with all due respect I don't listen to or care about heads up theory. I was never good at that or expected to be.
Tourneys I don't have time for because when I played full time live it was roughly 60 hours a week at roughly $15/hour. So I'm like, if I bust out, I just wasted how many hours times $15.

penetrate that, but much respect to people that find +roi doing that. I don't have the patience for it.
It took me a bit to realize it, but that's why I lost interest in what they've been up to in addition to work.

That being said, very cool read and some very good points, ty.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 04:39 PM

Chucky, honest question and yes I'm being serious.

My job is remote. For both online and live poker, it's best that people don't know that I'm a setminer.
Do you think I should I take this whole thing to Vegas and casino hop poker rooms part time as my side hustle?

I can't think of another city in the USA that has that has multiple rooms that aren't closed.

It was Philly but now the only room anywhere near here is the Borgata and penetrate being a part time reg there, I ain't rolled that deep and those guys can be real pieces of shit (plenty of cool ones as well). The comps are nice, sure, but overall it's -ev.

I was afraid of the hookers/trickrollers but I changed my mind on that.

.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 10:20 PM

Wow, I log into sbr poker looking for Omaha rollover action, the 10 pm tourney opens up and I bust out first hand with ak facing two pairs. In and out of tourney in idk in one hand, 10 seconds flat?

That cracked me the penetrate up.

**RedApples** · 01-31-21, 11:15 PM

Sound like such a fish. Don't play poker. My only advice.

**stevek173** · 01-31-21, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by RedApples

Sound like such a fish. Don't play poker. My only advice.

You could be right about that.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-01-21, 02:59 AM

Steve, good luck. See u at the tables.

**stevek173** · 02-01-21, 06:59 AM

Chucky no, I don't and I never want to hear about that again - lol.

You are banned from thread moving forward.