Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 01:13 PM

Looks like someone dropped their food out in a fresh cut field, or maybe in the mud by the river.

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 02:28 PM

http://www.smythandtheloyalist.com/

Located in Chicago’s West Loop neighborhood, John Shields & Karen Urie Shields present two distinct, exciting restaurants, Smyth and The Loyalist.

We are trying to express ‘farm on a plate’ — not in such a literal sense, but more as an idea.

From that picture above, I'd say they nailed the literal sense.

**turtledoves** · 05-11-19, 03:41 PM

what an amazing website

**turtledoves** · 05-11-19, 04:23 PM

i'm looking for academic papers on how to come up with power rankings

thinking about tracking how teams perform against their expected performance against opponents

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

been reading about wax pens, I guess humboldt vape tech is the hot company to go with nowadays

Got this long ago, haven't used wax in a while to vape, been using cartridges...

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 04:45 PM

KC one sharp ass play but it has lost a lot of value. It has just missed the Fund so far today. It was the best play on the boards yesterday and might be again today.

Let's see if they win.

Also looking at the Wash RL, -184 is little pricey but it's the likely winner.

**turtledoves** · 05-11-19, 05:57 PM

here's what one user wrote about the micro vape

"Ok so I just picked up this pen from my local dispensary, and I have to say I personally think it sucks donkey balls"

**turtledoves** · 05-11-19, 06:13 PM

going sharks tonight

you can flash 3rd party firmwares on your vape pens

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

here's what one user wrote about the micro vape

"Ok so I just picked up this pen from my local dispensary, and I have to say I personally think it sucks donkey balls"

It's been good to me but I haven't used an crumble or wax in it for a long time.

Almost exclusively cartridges and it's been good for years.

I've been putting the other concentrates right on the bowl.

**KVB** · 05-11-19, 07:21 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

913

11-May

WAS +1.5 (-183)

This is expensive but is a part of this Fund's target and the risk remains one unit.

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 11:11 AM

So far the prediction of a winning Fri and Sat has held, now it's Sunday, where a pullback in the contrarian market is predicted.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953	12-May	PIT +158
957		CIN +100
973		Det +164
980		KC +105

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 11:28 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

954	12-May	PIT/STL UNDER 8.5 (+105)
972		NYY/TB UNDER 7 (+100)

**turtledoves** · 05-12-19, 12:11 PM

losers

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...I can say this, the read posted above was not only correct, but also implies favorable market conditions for the Contrarian short term. It could be a good weekend, or at least Friday and Saturday, with a potential settlement style pull back on Sunday...

Even though the Contrarian Fund navigated the day pretty well, it wasn't exactly a good day for the overall contrarian market. Cle, Tex, Det, Sea, Balt, Mia, SF, and to a much lesser extent SD all failed today.

Pit, KC, ATL and to a much lesser extent Mil and even NYY succeeded today. I'm listing the teams here because after Saturday's I may refer back to see which teams are prime for the settlement mentioned above, and which ones may be looking to succeed as settlement on Sunday.

Well the successful Friday and Saturday we predicted for the Fund, but again the markets themselves remained mixed. As far as the list of teams, Texas, Balty, Sea and Mia were all contrarian failures again. The Fund isn't on any of them, but let's see who settles the other way and gets a win. Balty and Sea really aren't contrarian plays today and Mia is ppd.

That leaves Texas for the win, as of now.

What about that super sharp KC play of yesterday? It lost 7-0 and put KC in the failure column. It's not what they bring...

As far as success, Pit is the only team to remain contrarian and win on Fri and Sat. That leaves a Pit failure for settlement, a likely occurrence.

But let's not play gamblers fallacy here, Pit can do it again, and they are in the Fund, again.

I wish there was more to give but the markets remain mixed and could side one way or the other, just like last Sunday.

Let's hope it's for the contrarians as the Fund, which has won three days in a row with the sweep yesterday (and the biggest units gained), is again on 6 plays today, just like last Sunday (0-5 with a cancel).

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 169 plays...

904	11-May	MIL/CHC UNDER 8 (-115)	0.87
917		DET +150	1.5
919		CHW+150	1.5

		Sat	3.87

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Week 6	-5.13
		Mon	-2.05
		Tue	-1.77
		Wed	1.35
		Thu	0.35
		Fri	2.7

		Total	-2

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 24 plays, still trying to overcome that early season crash...

957	6-May	MIA +1.5 (+110)	1.1
973		ARI +1.5 (-105)	-1
923	7-May	KC +1.5 (+100)	1
927		ARI +1.5 (-125)	-1
957	8-May	MIA +1.5 (+100)	1
961		ATL +1.5 (-105)	-1
977		ARI +1.5 (-155)	0.65
901	9-May	MIA +1.5 (+100)	-1
909		WAS +1.5 (-155)	0.65
913	11-May	WAS +1.5 (-183)	0.55

		Week 7	0.95

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Week 6	-1

		Total	-4.97

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 12:30 PM

An interesting two pick parlay would be to fade Pit and pick up Texas.

A little St Louis/Texas Two pick.

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 12:37 PM

Well would you look at that.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added....

975

12-May

TEX +185

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by KVB

So far the prediction of a winning Fri and Sat has held, now it's Sunday, where a pullback in the contrarian market is predicted.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953	12-May	PIT +158
957		CIN +100
973		Det +164
980		KC +105

...

Pit, Det, and KC all took the lead early. Cinci hasn't started yet.

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Pit, Det, and KC all took the lead early. Cinci hasn't started yet.

Cinci takes a 2-0 lead in the first.

The Fund is screwed today...lol.

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...That leaves Texas for the win...

A lot pressure on Texas there, as the last man standing this weekend. It's showing on the scoreboard.

It's not what they bring because for Texas it's how it's brought.

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 03:44 PM

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 03:56 PM

Totals continue to fail for the Contrarian Fund.

The UNDER in St Louis died in the 2nd inning and a 4 run top of the ninth by the Yanks took the Under in TB away. Got a little of both ends of the spectrum today.

I think I already posted part 1...

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 04:20 PM

Including today's two Total losses, the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has made 48 Totals plays and is -10.8 units with Totals.

The record for Totals is 17-27-1 with 3 cancelled games.

The Fund overall is -4 Units, including the two losses so far today.

**turtledoves** · 05-12-19, 06:58 PM

time to start fading tampa bay

**KVB** · 05-12-19, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...I can say this, the read posted above was not only correct, but also implies favorable market conditions for the Contrarian short term. It could be a good weekend, or at least Friday and Saturday, with a potential settlement style pull back on Sunday...

The 4 day positive unit streak was broken with the pull back on Sunday.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through all 176 plays...

953	12-May	PIT +158	1.58
954		PIT/STL UNDER 8.5 (+105)	-1
957		CIN +100	-1
972		NYY/TB UNDER 7 (+100)	-1
973		DET +164	1.64
975		TEX +185	-1
980		KC +105	-1

		Sun	-1.78

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Week 6	-5.13
		Mon	-2.05
		Tue	-1.77
		Wed	1.35
		Thu	0.35
		Fri	2.7
		Sat	3.87

		Total	-3.78

There were no Contrarian RL plays today.

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 09:45 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

907

13-May

HOU/DET OVER 8.5 (-110)

Back at those Totals again.

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Definitely why it becomes a contrarian play, even on the runline.

I see LAA getting sharp play in the market and that line movement is looking like RLM.

Would be interesting to see if there are buybacks. I've bought them, but the Contrarian Fund has yet to trigger, losing some value while we wait for more volume in the samples.

A later buyback on Minny would make me nervous, but right now all signs point to the Angels...

Indeed there was some buying back and the market had to blink. The contrarian fund is seeing the value return, and needed to, as the buyback action itself causes an adjustment against the Angels.

This will likely be the highest volume game of the day and it's pretty clear the originators and books helped cause it. With that kind of volume, the contrarian side shows the advantage with the Angels today.

The Fund has still not triggered, now, at these prices, there is plenty of time to gather more information.

The good news is that the LAA runline has gotten cheaper and will likely trigger in the RL fund, we need plays to trigger there to make up the early season deficit.

Dropping this here in case I come back to this topic of adjustments.

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 03:21 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

909

13-May

LAA +1.5 (-140)

This is the second time this line has hit this level and I think it's the best we get. Volume and metrics at these levels tend to hold their trend by the close and while it's possible that this play could move off the radar by the close, it triggers now.

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 04:11 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

909

13-May

LAA +133

Been watching this one all day.

**turtledoves** · 05-13-19, 05:33 PM

cubs lines are a lot cheaper this year

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 05:35 PM

Good new on the OVER I bought earlier in Detroit...

Originally posted by KVB

I bought this OVER before the Umps were announced but I do have some good news in that dept.

Today's Ump in Detroit is Paul Emmel.

Emmel is one of the top OVER umps in my database, going back nearly 15 years.

He has kept up the OVER tendency this year already as I have him 5-1 with the OVER better up nearly 4 units, depending on the line.

The wind at Comerica is expected to be blowing out toward center at nearly 10 mph but that will slowly drop to 7 mph as the game progresses.

This line has been pricing higher for the OVER all day long as books have seen, from my samples, a consistent supply of OVER bets.

Some houses have moved to 9, pricing that UNDER high. I've seen some UNDER trades here that constitue RLM, when counting the price change. So that isn't too significant.

If it blinks back down to 8.5, or the UNDER 8.5 becomes juiced, I might worry at that late market countering activity..

**turtledoves** · 05-13-19, 05:41 PM

**KVB** · 05-13-19, 05:51 PM

When does early season end?

I think it's over and the big money that was waiting for that mountain of stats to come in is entering the market. These pitchers have probably had enough starts.

LEFT...

**turtledoves** · 05-13-19, 05:51 PM

**turtledoves** · 05-13-19, 05:52 PM

early season ends when you bust all your accounts and swear never to sports gamble again for 3 weeks AKA end of June

**turtledoves** · 05-13-19, 05:57 PM