Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

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  • Fidel_CashFlow
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-03-12
    • 53970

    #75216
    Fukk u KVB


    N1gga sitting on a goldmine and still doesn’t even see it
    Comment
    • Fidel_CashFlow
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-03-12
      • 53970

      #75217
      This ones for all you gross lil phaggots that think women are sexier than men

      disgust me you fruitcakes

      Comment
      • Fidel_CashFlow
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-03-12
        • 53970

        #75218
        Comment
        • Fidel_CashFlow
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-03-12
          • 53970

          #75219
          no good woo hoo
          Comment
          • Fidel_CashFlow
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-03-12
            • 53970

            #75220
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #75221
              The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has already picked up...

              185 TENNESSEE +18 (-110) over AUBURN

              This line has moved already.

              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #75222
                Originally posted by KVB
                Here's the NCAAF Totals Fund after it's 4.2 unit drop today...

                ...We could see a further drop here before it turns around...
                That was from last week.

                This week with 10 more plays, the Totals Fund was -2.25, that further drop.

                Here's the NCAAF Totals Fund through all 60 plays with a crude closing line comparison and links to the plays...

                1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
                Record Date NCAAF Totals Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
                0-1 30-Aug NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110) -1 49.5 N -2.5
                0-1-1 UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113) 0 69 Y 4
                1-1-1 WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110) 0.91 56 Y 1.5
                2-1-1 31-Aug W KENT/WISC UNDER 52 (-108) 0.93 52 PUSH 0
                3-1-1 1-Sep KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105) 0.95 57 N -0.5
                3-2-1 WASH/AUB OVER 49.5 (-105) -1 50.5 Y 1
                3-3-1 WASH ST/WYO UNDER 45.5 (-102) -1 45 Y 0.5
                4-3-1 2-Sep MIA/LSU OVER 47 (-108) 0.93 47.5 Y 0.5
                5-3-1 8-Sep APP ST/CHARLOTTE OVER 48 (-110) 0.91 48.5 Y 0.5
                6-3-1 E MICH/PURDUE UNDER 51 (-105) 0.95 50.5 Y 0.5
                7-3-1 N MEX/WISC UNDER 59.5 (-102) 0.98 58 Y 1.5
                8-3-1 GA ST/NC ST UNDER 56.5 (-107) 0.93 56.5 PUSH 0
                9-3-1 KANSAS/C MICH UNDER 49 (-108) 0.93 48 Y 1
                10-3-1 BAYLOR/UTSA OVER 54 (-105) 0.95 55 Y 1
                10-4-1 WYO/MISSOURI UNDER 52.5 (-108) -1 52.5 PUSH 0
                10-5-1 FRESNO ST/MINN OVER 50 (-105) -1 50 PUSH 0
                10-6-1 CAL/BYU OVER 47.5 (-105) -1 47.5 PUSH 0
                10-7-1 13-Sep BC/WAKE UNDER 54 (-105) -1 58.5 N -4.5
                10-8-1 ODU/NC CHAR UNDER 47.5 (-108) -1 47.5 PUSH 0
                11-8-1 15-Sep UMASS/FL INT OVER 64 (-105) 0.95 66 Y 2
                11-9-1 MIA/TOLEDO UNDER 59 (-110) -1 58.5 Y 0.5
                12-9-1 TROY/NEB UNDER 55.5 (-105) 0.95 55.5 PUSH 0
                12-10-1 BYU/WISC OVER 48 (-102) -1 51.5 Y 3.5
                13-10-1 GA SOUTH/CLEMSON UNDER 49 (-105) 0.95 49 PUSH 0
                14-10-1 N TEX/ARK UNDER 66 (-105) 0.95 63.5 Y 2.5
                14-11-1 OREGON ST/NEVADA UNDER 67.5 (-103) -1 68 N -0.5
                15-11-1 M TENN ST/GEORGIA UNDER 57 (-105) 0.95 59.5 N -2.5
                16-11-1 MISSOURI/PURDUE OVER 66.5 (-105) 0.95 67 Y 0.5
                17-11-1 20-Sep TULSA/TEMPLE UNDER 54.5 (-108) 0.93 54.5 PUSH 0
                17-12-1 22-Sep MINN/MARYLAND UNDER 47 (-110) -1 47 PUSH 0
                18-12-1 CLEMSON/G TECH OVER 54 (-105) 0.95 55.5 Y 1.5
                19-12-1 LOUISVILLE/VIRGINIA UNDER 52 (-108) 0.93 53 N -1
                20-12-1 STAN/OREGON OVER 58 (-105) 0.95 59 Y 1
                20-13-1 NAVY/SMU UNDER 58.5 (-108) -1 58 Y 0.5
                21-13-1 KANSAS/BAYLOR UNDER 55.5 (-108) 0.93 55 Y 0.5
                21-14-1 AIR FORCE/UTAH ST UNDER 59.5 (-105) -1 60 N -0.5
                22-14-1 GEORGIA/MISSOURI OVER 67.5 (-105) 0.95 68.5 Y 1
                22-15-1 TEX A&M/ALABAMA UNDER 59.5 (-102) -1 59 Y 0.5
                23-15-1 28-Sep UCLA/COLO UNDER 59 (-105) 0.95 57 Y 2
                23-16-1 29-Sep CINCI/UCONN OVER 62 (-102) -1 62.5 Y 0.5
                23-17-1 C MICH/MICH ST UNDER 46.5 (-105) -1 45.5 Y 1
                23-18-1 ODU/E CAROL UNDER 60.5 (-105) -1 60.5 PUSH 0
                23-19-1 S BAMA/APP ST UNDER 57 (-105) -1 57.5 N -0.5
                24-19-1 NEVADA/AIR FORCE UNDER 63.5 (-105) 0.95 63.5 PUSH 0
                24-20-1 BYU/WASH OVER 45.5 (-105) -1 47.5 Y 2
                24-21-1 FSU/LOUISVILLE UNDER 45.5 (-105) -1 47 N -1.5
                25-21-1 S MISS/AUBURN UNDER 53 (-105) 0.95 51.5 Y 1.5
                25-22-1 OK ST/KANSAS UNDER 59 (-105) -1 56 Y 3
                26-22-1 USC/ARIZONA UNDER 58.5 (-105) 0.95 62 N -3.5
                26-23-1 HAWAII/SJ ST UNDER 65 (-105) -1 63 Y 2
                26-24-1 4-Oct GA ST/TROY UNDER 54.5 (-105) -1 55.5 N -1
                27-24-1 5-Oct GTECH/LOUISVILLE OVER 59 (+100) 1 56.5 N -2.5
                28-24-1 6-Oct N ILL/BALL ST UNDER 54 (-110) 0.91 52.5 Y 1.5
                28-25-1 ODU/FAU UNDER 63.5 (-105) -1 63.5 PUSH 0
                28-26-1 TULANE/CINCI UNDER 48.5 (-105) -1 48 Y 0.5
                29-26-1 CAL/ARIZONA UNDER 55.5 (-110) 0.91 57 N -1.5
                29-27-1 KANSAS/WV OVER 61 (-108) -1 63.5 Y 2.5
                29-28-1 BG/TOLEDO UNDER 71 (-110) -1 71 PUSH 0
                30-28-1 NAVY/AIR FORCE UNDER 48 (-108) 0.93 47 Y 1
                30-29-1 COLO ST/SJ ST UNDER 60.5 (-108) -1 59.5 Y 1
                30-29-1 Total -0.74 33-13-14 0.366667
                Comment
                • KVB
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-29-14
                  • 74817

                  #75223
                  The KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund...

                  ATS 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML
                  Record Date NCAAF Market Reads Fund per bet Line Closer? Average Average
                  1-0 1-Sep BYU +10 (-104) 0.96 11 N -1
                  2-0 8-Sep IOWA ST/IOWA UNDER 46.5 (-101) 0.99 46.5 PUSH 0
                  2-1 MICH ST -4.5 (+100) -1 -4.5 PUSH 0
                  MICH ST -185 -1 189 Y 0.04
                  2-2 13-Sep BC/WAKE UNDER 54 (-110) -1 58.5 N -4.5
                  2-3 15-Sep TOLEDO +10 -1 12 N -2
                  HOUSTON +110 -1 106 Y 0.04
                  2-4 HOUSTON +2 (-105) -1 1 Y 1
                  3-4 22-Sep TEX A&M +24.5 (-108) 0.93 24.5 PUSH 0
                  29-Sep WASH ST +110 1.1 102 Y 0.08
                  3-5 5-Oct BYU-2.5 (-110) -1 0 N -2.5
                  3-5-0 Total -3.02 4-4-3 -1.125 0.053333

                  Comment
                  • KVB
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 05-29-14
                    • 74817

                    #75224
                    The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund was 8-2 this week, +5.54 units, a nice rebound as the market gets sharper.

                    Here it is through 42 plays with links and a crude closing line comparison...

                    Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML
                    ATS per bet Line Closer? Average Average
                    0-1 30-Aug WAKE -6.5 (-105) -1 -7.5 Y 1
                    1-Sep MIA (OH) -125 -1 -110 N 0.15
                    0-2 SMU +3.5 (-109) -1 3 Y 0.5
                    1-2 WASH ST -3 (-103) 0.97 3 PUSH 0
                    MICH -130 -1 -151 Y 0.21
                    2-2 2-Sep LSU +3 (+105) 1.05 3 PUSH 0
                    2-3 3-Sep FLORIDA ST -7 (-110) -1 -7.5 Y 0.5
                    2-4 8-Sep N MEX ST +23 (-105) -1 21.5 Y 1.5
                    3-4 KANSAS +3 (+105) 1.05 3 PUSH 0
                    4-4 COLORADO +3 (-105) 0.95 3 PUSH 0
                    4-5 UMASS +1.5 (-102) -1 1.5 PUSH 0
                    4-6 FRESNO ST + 1 (-110) -1 0 Y 1
                    5-6 CAL +3 (-110) 0.91 2 Y 1
                    6-6 13-Sep UNC CHAR +1.5 (-105) 0.95 1.5 PUSH 0
                    6-7 15-Sep UMASS +3.5 (-108) -1 3.5 PUSH 0
                    6-8 FLORIDA ST -3 (-108) -1 -3.5 Y 0.5
                    BOISE ST -113 -1 -116 Y 0.03
                    6-9 N MEX ST +3 (+100) -1 3 PUSH 0
                    7-9 DUKE +4.5 (-113) 0.88 2 Y 2.5
                    8-9 N TEXAS +6 (-105) 0.95 5.5 Y 0.5
                    8-10 22-Sep PITT -3 (-120) -1 -3 PUSH 0
                    9-10 OHIO +7.5 (-125) 0.8 7 Y 0.5
                    9-11 NEVADA +10.5 (-109) -1 10.5 PUSH 0
                    10-11 VIRGINIA -5 (-105) 0.95 -4.5 N -0.5
                    11-11 SMU +7 (-125) 0.8 6.5 Y 0.5
                    12-11 ARMY +30 (-105) 0.95 29 Y 1
                    12-12 29-Sep BUFFALO -7.5 (-105) -1 -7 N -0.5
                    13-12 TEMPLE +12.5 (-102) 0.98 13 N 0.5
                    13-13 ARK ST -3.5 (-103) -1 -3 N -0.5
                    13-14 TEXAS -8.5 (-105) -1 -8.5 PUSH 0
                    13-15 MISS +10.5 (-105) -1 11 N -0.5
                    13-16 MICH -15.5 (-105) -1 -14.5 N -0.5
                    14-16 5-Oct UTAH ST +2.5 (-105) 0.95 0 Y 2.5
                    15-16 PITT +3.5 (-108) 0.93 3.5 PUSH 0
                    16-16 KENT ST +12.5 (-110) 0.91 12 Y 0.5
                    16-17 AKRON -5 (-105) -1 -5 PUSH 0
                    17-17 IOWA ST +9.5 (-102) 0.98 10 N -0.5
                    18-17 MISS ST +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3 Y 0.5
                    19-17 AIR FORCE +3 (-105) 0.95 2.5 Y 0.5
                    20-17 KANSAS ST +4.5 (-109) 0.92 3.5 Y 1
                    21-17 NEBRASKA +18 (-105) 0.95 18.5 N -0.5
                    21-18 WYOMING +2 (-105) -1 -3.5 Y 5.5
                    21-18-0 Total -1.27 20-9-13 0.474359 0.13
                    Comment
                    • KVB
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-29-14
                      • 74817

                      #75225
                      Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #75226
                        Originally posted by KVB
                        ...The NCAAF UPSET Basket is swelling a bit after tonight, we may see a small correction on the way to a broader steady climb.

                        I don't usually post it before the week is over, but it's worth noting.

                        Last time it was up over 4 units, in week 2, it was -5.87 units week 3, then +1.55 and +2.3 weeks 4 and 5.

                        There tends to be shake outs and I see it as healthy corrections. This is a grind to profit for sure. Keeping an eye on that closer comparison too, it seems pretty high...
                        That was on Friday.

                        The NCAAF UPSET Basket was -2.71 units this week, a correction.

                        Here it is through all 48 plays with a links and a crude closing line comparison...

                        Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML
                        per bet Line Closer? Average
                        30-Aug KENNESAW ST +130 -1 120 Y 0.10
                        UC DAVIS +120 1.2 120 PUSH 0.00
                        1-Sep MARSHALL +120 1.2 -102 Y 0.22
                        SMU +150 -1 143 Y 0.07
                        MTENN ST +130 -1 134 N -0.04
                        8-Sep FLOR INT +115 1.15 -154 Y 0.69
                        DUKE +130 1.3 126 Y 0.04
                        ARI +157 -1 150 Y 0.07
                        KANSAS +167 1.67 134 Y 0.33
                        COLORADO +142 1.42 141 Y 0.01
                        IOWA ST +155 -1 145 Y 0.10
                        UMASS +125 -1 107 Y 0.18
                        FRESNO ST +115 -1 -110 Y 0.25
                        CINCI +105 1.05 101 Y 0.04
                        CAL +145 1.45 111 Y 0.34
                        15-Sep UMASS +165 -1 145 Y 0.20
                        RUTGERS +140 -1 -110 Y 0.50
                        OHIO +135 -1 164 N -0.29
                        BOISE ST +135 -1 -116 Y 0.51
                        HOUSTON +110 -1 106 Y 0.04
                        E MICH +150 -1 117 Y 0.33
                        OREGON ST +155 -1 158 N -0.03
                        ARK ST +115 1.15 108 Y 0.07
                        USC +145 -1 135 Y 0.10
                        FRESNO ST -102 0.98 -145 Y 0.43
                        21-Sep WASH ST +165 -1 168 Y 0.03
                        22-Sep MINN +135 -1 111 Y 0.24
                        W KENTUCKY +130 1.3 131 N -0.01
                        LOUISVILLE +150 -1 175 N -0.25
                        COAST CAR +150 1.5 123 Y 0.27
                        ILLINOIS ST +175 1.75 170 Y 0.05
                        29-Sep N ILLINOIS +155 1.55 147 Y 0.08
                        S CAR +100 -1 -107 Y 0.07
                        NEVADA +160 1.6 152 Y 0.08
                        W MICH +115 1.15 -139 Y 0.54
                        STANFORD +175 -1 173 Y 0.02
                        5-Oct M TENN ST +170 1.7 121 Y 0.49
                        UTAH ST +125 1.25 -108 Y 0.33
                        6-Oct BC +160 -1 198 N -0.38
                        MISSOURI +110 -1 -110 Y 0.20
                        E MICH +155 -1 167 N -0.12
                        MIA (OH) +152 1.52 176 N -0.24
                        ARIZONA ST +120 -1 119 N 0.01
                        UTAH +167 1.67 160 Y 0.07
                        CAL +105 -1 -106 Y 0.11
                        UTSA +110 1.1 102 Y 0.08
                        KANSAS ST +165 -1 156 Y 0.09
                        WYOMING +152 -1 -172 Y 3.24
                        Total 1.66 38-9-1 0.19
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #75227
                          Here's the NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund through all 25 plays.

                          It has shown profit every week so far and was 5-2 with some outright upsets coming through this week...

                          1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
                          Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
                          1-0 15-Sep LSU +9.5 (-105) 0.95 10 N -0.5
                          2-0 C MICH +14 (-105) 0.95 14 PUSH 0
                          3-0 TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105) 0.95 9.5 Y 1
                          4-0 AKRON +21.5 (-110) 0.91 21 Y 0.5
                          5-0 RHODE ISLAND +9.5 (-110) 0.91 9.5 PUSH 0
                          5-1 DELAWARE ST +47.5 (-115) -1 47 Y 0.5
                          5-2 22-Sep N ILLINOIS +10.5 (-105) -1 10 Y 0.5
                          5-3 KANSAS ST +15 (-105) -1 15.5 N 0.5
                          6-3 KENT ST +28 (-105) 0.95 28.5 Y 0.5
                          7-3 TTECH +13 (-105) 0.95 14.5 Y 1.5
                          8-3 COAST CAR +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3 Y 0.5
                          9-3 TEX A&M +24.5 (-105) 0.95 24.5 PUSH 0
                          9-4 29-Sep TOLEDO +7.5 (-105) -1 10.5 N -3
                          10-4 S MISS +27 (-105) 0.95 27 PUSH 0
                          11-4 IOWA ST +10.5 (-105) 0.95 11.5 N -1
                          12-4 UTEP +10.5 (-105) 0.95 10 Y 0.5
                          13-4 FLORIDA +8 (-105) 0.95 7 Y 1
                          13-5 STAN +4.5 (-105) -1 4.5 PUSH 0
                          14-5 5-Oct UTAH ST +3 (-120) 0.83 0 Y 3
                          14-6 6-Oct MARYLAND +17.5 (-110) -1 17.5 PUSH 0
                          14-7 TULANE +7 (+105) -1 7 PUSH 0
                          15-7 MIA (OH) +3.5 (-105) 0.95 5 N -1.5
                          16-7 UTAH +5 (-105) 0.95 4 Y 1
                          17-7 N WESTERN +11.5 (-105) 0.95 10.5 Y 1
                          18-7 FLORIDA ST +13 (-105) 0.95 14 Y 1
                          18-7-0 Total 9.9 13-5-7 0.28
                          Comment
                          • KVB
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 05-29-14
                            • 74817

                            #75228
                            The Summary...

                            NCAAF Week 6 Season to Date
                            Funds # Plays Units # Plays Units
                            Totals 10 -2.25 60 -0.74
                            ATS/ML 10 5.54 42 -1.27
                            UPSET Basket 12 -2.71 48 1.66
                            Visiting Dog 7 2.63 25 9.9
                            Market Reads 1 -1 11 -3.02
                            Total: 40 2.21 186 6.53
                            Comment
                            • Fidel_CashFlow
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-03-12
                              • 53970

                              #75229
                              sitting on a goldmine and doesnt even know it
                              Comment
                              • Fidel_CashFlow
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-03-12
                                • 53970

                                #75230
                                Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                Thinking about going against the grain and hitting the Under 46

                                Locked it in , nothing huge though
                                sitting on a gold mine and you all dont even know it
                                Comment
                                • Fidel_CashFlow
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-03-12
                                  • 53970

                                  #75231
                                  Comment
                                  • Fidel_CashFlow
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-03-12
                                    • 53970

                                    #75232
                                    Comment
                                    • Fidel_CashFlow
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-03-12
                                      • 53970

                                      #75233
                                      Comment
                                      • Fidel_CashFlow
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-03-12
                                        • 53970

                                        #75234
                                        Comment
                                        • Fidel_CashFlow
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-03-12
                                          • 53970

                                          #75235
                                          Comment
                                          • turtledoves
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-27-17
                                            • 3398

                                            #75236
                                            Missed, Skipping had a good week

                                            laid off seattle because of KVB's posts, thanks a lot dude
                                            Comment
                                            • turtledoves
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-27-17
                                              • 3398

                                              #75237
                                              ARI +10.5 biggest discrepancy this week
                                              SF #2
                                              Comment
                                              • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 11-30-08
                                                • 81454

                                                #75238
                                                Comment
                                                • turtledoves
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-27-17
                                                  • 3398

                                                  #75239
                                                  seems betonline releases the earliest ncaaf totals
                                                  Comment
                                                  • KVB
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                    • 74817

                                                    #75240
                                                    MLB Contrarian Fund is on Houston to win and the Unders in NYY and Atlanta.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • KVB
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                      • 74817

                                                      #75241
                                                      Originally posted by turtledoves
                                                      Missed, Skipping had a good week

                                                      laid off seattle because of KVB's posts, thanks a lot dude
                                                      Comment
                                                      • KVB
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                        • 74817

                                                        #75242
                                                        Baseball - 915 Houston Astros +117 for Game D. Keuchel - L (must start) M. Clevinger - R (must start)
                                                        Baseball - 920 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves under 8 +100 for Game R. Hill - L (must start) M. Foltynewicz - R (must start)
                                                        Baseball - 914 Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees under 8½ -110 for Game N. EOVALDI - R (must start) L. Severino - R (must start)
                                                        Baseball - 920 Atlanta Braves +134 for Game R. Hill - L (must start) M. Foltynewicz - R (must start)
                                                        What's up I'm Matt, I started a new youtube channel...



                                                        and that's how you Dance like Beyonce!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KVB
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 05-29-14
                                                          • 74817

                                                          #75243
                                                          The NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

                                                          123 UL MONROE +170 over COASTAL CAR

                                                          127 BALL ST +100 over C MICH

                                                          129 DUKE -103 over G TECH

                                                          143 M TENN ST +110 over FL INT

                                                          149 N MEXICO -103 over COLORADO ST

                                                          161 OHIO +155 over N ILLINOIS

                                                          I was a little late to some of these and I'm laying for some dogs, they are still dogs, but those lines are tighter for sure.

                                                          Comment
                                                          • KVB
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 05-29-14
                                                            • 74817

                                                            #75244
                                                            Originally posted by turtledoves
                                                            seems betonline releases the earliest ncaaf totals
                                                            They released early spreads too.

                                                            Moneylines came out earlier but didn't get to posting until a little later. Got tied up this morning with other things. Had to post current lines to be fair, didn't lose too much value.

                                                            As soon as we see Totals, there may be a set of Visiting Dog plays. That first one, Tennessee +18 showed an overrated Auburn.

                                                            Hit a similar bet last week, I predict it loses this week, but it's already beating the market. Possible market read here if that line drops enough in Auburn.

                                                            Back on these guys...

                                                            Comment
                                                            • turtledoves
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-27-17
                                                              • 3398

                                                              #75245
                                                              early leans

                                                              unders
                                                              western michigan/bowling green 72.5
                                                              troy/liberty 68.5

                                                              overs
                                                              arizona/utah 51.5
                                                              ucla/california 53.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • KVB
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 05-29-14
                                                                • 74817

                                                                #75246
                                                                That other Underdog Fund I'm not tracking here is up over 6 units after 40 plays. It's running a little hot after last week. It's at 40% on the year so far.

                                                                At this point, it's a market function and has a very consistent win percentage at about 36%, no matter the sample size, going all the way to more than 2500 games over more than a decade.

                                                                Can't really fade it, because of the heavy favorite moneylines, but we can hold out some weeks, and keep our profit.

                                                                I hate to start posting so late, when it's up, maybe after the drop.

                                                                Comment
                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #75247
                                                                  The NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

                                                                  113 AIR FORCE +10.5 (-110) over SDSU

                                                                  169 WISCONSIN +7.5 (-110) over MICHIGAN




                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KVB
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                                    • 74817

                                                                    #75248
                                                                    Redskins +6 (-108)

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KVB
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                                      • 74817

                                                                      #75249
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      The NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

                                                                      113 AIR FORCE +10.5 (-110) over SDSU

                                                                      169 WISCONSIN +7.5 (-110) over MICHIGAN
                                                                      ...
                                                                      The Visiting Dog Fund has added...

                                                                      207 WYOMING +19.5 (-105) over FRESNO ST

                                                                      I have this as an 18 point game before making an adjustment based on the Total offered. I have 50 points and they are giving the same points with a far less total offered. I've explained this a bit in the past and it's the nature of this play.

                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • KVB
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                                        • 74817

                                                                        #75250
                                                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                                                        The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has already picked up...

                                                                        185 TENNESSEE +18 (-110) over AUBURN

                                                                        This line has moved already.
                                                                        ...

                                                                        The stacking forecast’s adjusted score has Auburn winning 31-17. That’s a 14 point game with a 48 point total. The offered Total is 47.5.

                                                                        That’s actually a pretty sharp line and evidence shows that Auburn bettors, coming off of the lowest scoring game of the season are looking for that bounce back I discussed when this Fund started. The line opened inflated, and we’ve seen it drop accordingly.

                                                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                                                        ...We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast...
                                                                        But further pressure has come from that other component, that’s been mentioned before…the Total. The raw score here is higher for both teams and actually, with a about a 13 point game, sits with a 50 point Total.

                                                                        Well, I’m getting 18 with a 47.5 Total showing in the market. I can’t find the post where I talked about the adjustment I make, maybe Sharon took it out, but there is a fudge factor for this Total line adjustment; I am referring to the raw score, not the adjusted, more likely to occur scores.

                                                                        Regardless, the stacking forecast has it closer and the open was inflated, as predicted by Auburn’s previous outing.

                                                                        These bets have done very well this year and this Fund is up 9.9 units through 25 plays.

                                                                        That’s a tough pace to maintain.

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