Ganchrow Tell Me This...

[dave11486]

you did estimated push frequencies, but can you tell us what spreads usually cover...

Like tonight Va Tech is favored by -2.5 tonight, so that may make people more likely to bet on Va Tech than if it was -3. Could you tell us if the dog covers more when the spread is 2.5 or the other way around?

Would love to see this. Thanks

[Ganchrow]

you did estimated push frequencies, but can you tell us what spreads usually cover...

Like tonight Va Tech is favored by -2.5 tonight, so that may make people more likely to bet on Va Tech than if it was -3. Could you tell us if the dog covers more when the spread is 2.5 or the other way around?

Would love to see this. Thanks

Ok, let me make sure I understand your question.

You're asking which of the following is more likely:

• an underdog covering given a spread of 2½ -or-
• an underdog covering given a spread of 3

Am I understanding you correctly?

[dave11486]

hmm...

I mean which is more likely an underdog covering 2.5 or the favorite covering 2.5 (like given this year as the sample size)

But if you can get the information, I would like to see the results for as many numbers as you can.

13.5 and 14.5 for example intriques me.

[imgv94]

ganchrow can you do these as well

6.5 and 7.5
9.5 and 10.5
13.5 and 14.5
16.5 and 17.5

favs and dogs bud. Thanks alot!!

[dave11486]

This is good shit...should be pretty interesting

[Ganchrow]

<style> .ats { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .atshead { font-weight:bold; background-color: #fafafa; font-size: 10px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style><table border=1 cellpadding=3 cellspacing=2> <tr> <td class=atshead>Spread<sup style="font-size: 8px;">&nbsp;</sup></td> <td class=atshead>N<sup style="font-size: 8px;">&nbsp;</sup></td> <td class=atshead>Fave %<sup style="font-size: 8px;">*</sup></td> <td class=atshead>Dog %<sup style="font-size: 8px;">*</sup></td> <td class=atshead>Push %<sup style="font-size: 8px;">&nbsp;</sup></td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>1</td> <td class=ats>90</td> <td class=ats>51.11%</td> <td class=ats>48.89%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>1½</td> <td class=ats>65</td> <td class=ats>46.15%</td> <td class=ats>53.85%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>93</td> <td class=ats>51.09%</td> <td class=ats>48.91%</td> <td class=ats>1.08%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>2½</td> <td class=ats>139</td> <td class=ats>41.01%</td> <td class=ats>58.99%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>180</td> <td class=ats>41.67%</td> <td class=ats>58.33%</td> <td class=ats>6.67%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>3½</td> <td class=ats>130</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>104</td> <td class=ats>39.22%</td> <td class=ats>60.78%</td> <td class=ats>1.92%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>4½</td> <td class=ats>98</td> <td class=ats>55.10%</td> <td class=ats>44.90%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>5</td> <td class=ats>90</td> <td class=ats>56.82%</td> <td class=ats>43.18%</td> <td class=ats>2.22%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>5½</td> <td class=ats>93</td> <td class=ats>47.31%</td> <td class=ats>52.69%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>6</td> <td class=ats>111</td> <td class=ats>44.95%</td> <td class=ats>55.05%</td> <td class=ats>1.80%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>6½</td> <td class=ats>126</td> <td class=ats>48.41%</td> <td class=ats>51.59%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>7</td> <td class=ats>176</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>5.68%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>7½</td> <td class=ats>128</td> <td class=ats>52.34%</td> <td class=ats>47.66%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>8</td> <td class=ats>89</td> <td class=ats>43.53%</td> <td class=ats>56.47%</td> <td class=ats>4.49%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>8½</td> <td class=ats>71</td> <td class=ats>36.62%</td> <td class=ats>63.38%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>9</td> <td class=ats>71</td> <td class=ats>45.71%</td> <td class=ats>54.29%</td> <td class=ats>1.41%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>9½</td> <td class=ats>90</td> <td class=ats>42.22%</td> <td class=ats>57.78%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>10</td> <td class=ats>98</td> <td class=ats>53.19%</td> <td class=ats>46.81%</td> <td class=ats>4.08%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>10½</td> <td class=ats>83</td> <td class=ats>39.76%</td> <td class=ats>60.24%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>11</td> <td class=ats>64</td> <td class=ats>46.88%</td> <td class=ats>53.13%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>11½</td> <td class=ats>55</td> <td class=ats>49.09%</td> <td class=ats>50.91%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>12</td> <td class=ats>72</td> <td class=ats>50.70%</td> <td class=ats>49.30%</td> <td class=ats>1.39%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>12½</td> <td class=ats>59</td> <td class=ats>52.54%</td> <td class=ats>47.46%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>13</td> <td class=ats>76</td> <td class=ats>48.68%</td> <td class=ats>51.32%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>13½</td> <td class=ats>78</td> <td class=ats>58.97%</td> <td class=ats>41.03%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>14</td> <td class=ats>99</td> <td class=ats>52.58%</td> <td class=ats>47.42%</td> <td class=ats>2.02%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>14½</td> <td class=ats>64</td> <td class=ats>46.88%</td> <td class=ats>53.13%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>15</td> <td class=ats>57</td> <td class=ats>61.40%</td> <td class=ats>38.60%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>15½</td> <td class=ats>38</td> <td class=ats>60.53%</td> <td class=ats>39.47%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>16</td> <td class=ats>42</td> <td class=ats>47.62%</td> <td class=ats>52.38%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>16½</td> <td class=ats>50</td> <td class=ats>54.00%</td> <td class=ats>46.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>17</td> <td class=ats>65</td> <td class=ats>48.28%</td> <td class=ats>51.72%</td> <td class=ats>10.77%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>17½</td> <td class=ats>46</td> <td class=ats>58.70%</td> <td class=ats>41.30%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>18</td> <td class=ats>55</td> <td class=ats>50.91%</td> <td class=ats>49.09%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>18½</td> <td class=ats>41</td> <td class=ats>60.98%</td> <td class=ats>39.02%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>19</td> <td class=ats>34</td> <td class=ats>54.55%</td> <td class=ats>45.45%</td> <td class=ats>2.94%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>19½</td> <td class=ats>27</td> <td class=ats>51.85%</td> <td class=ats>48.15%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>20</td> <td class=ats>54</td> <td class=ats>45.10%</td> <td class=ats>54.90%</td> <td class=ats>5.56%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>20½</td> <td class=ats>39</td> <td class=ats>51.28%</td> <td class=ats>48.72%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>21</td> <td class=ats>47</td> <td class=ats>63.04%</td> <td class=ats>36.96%</td> <td class=ats>2.13%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>21½</td> <td class=ats>42</td> <td class=ats>47.62%</td> <td class=ats>52.38%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>22</td> <td class=ats>37</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>2.70%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>22½</td> <td class=ats>29</td> <td class=ats>55.17%</td> <td class=ats>44.83%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>23</td> <td class=ats>33</td> <td class=ats>58.06%</td> <td class=ats>41.94%</td> <td class=ats>6.06%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>23½</td> <td class=ats>29</td> <td class=ats>37.93%</td> <td class=ats>62.07%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>24</td> <td class=ats>43</td> <td class=ats>53.49%</td> <td class=ats>46.51%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>24½</td> <td class=ats>32</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>25</td> <td class=ats>31</td> <td class=ats>54.84%</td> <td class=ats>45.16%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>25½</td> <td class=ats>21</td> <td class=ats>47.62%</td> <td class=ats>52.38%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>26</td> <td class=ats>30</td> <td class=ats>51.72%</td> <td class=ats>48.28%</td> <td class=ats>3.33%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>26½</td> <td class=ats>17</td> <td class=ats>58.82%</td> <td class=ats>41.18%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>27</td> <td class=ats>30</td> <td class=ats>43.33%</td> <td class=ats>56.67%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>27½</td> <td class=ats>24</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>28</td> <td class=ats>30</td> <td class=ats>51.72%</td> <td class=ats>48.28%</td> <td class=ats>3.33%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>28½</td> <td class=ats>15</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>29</td> <td class=ats>25</td> <td class=ats>44.00%</td> <td class=ats>56.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>29½</td> <td class=ats>9</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>30</td> <td class=ats>18</td> <td class=ats>27.78%</td> <td class=ats>72.22%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>30½</td> <td class=ats>13</td> <td class=ats>69.23%</td> <td class=ats>30.77%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>31</td> <td class=ats>22</td> <td class=ats>38.10%</td> <td class=ats>61.90%</td> <td class=ats>4.55%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>31½</td> <td class=ats>11</td> <td class=ats>63.64%</td> <td class=ats>36.36%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>32</td> <td class=ats>18</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>32½</td> <td class=ats>10</td> <td class=ats>30.00%</td> <td class=ats>70.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>33</td> <td class=ats>13</td> <td class=ats>53.85%</td> <td class=ats>46.15%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>33½</td> <td class=ats>8</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>34</td> <td class=ats>13</td> <td class=ats>53.85%</td> <td class=ats>46.15%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>34½</td> <td class=ats>10</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>35</td> <td class=ats>12</td> <td class=ats>81.82%</td> <td class=ats>18.18%</td> <td class=ats>8.33%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>35½</td> <td class=ats>5</td> <td class=ats>60.00%</td> <td class=ats>40.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>36</td> <td class=ats>8</td> <td class=ats>62.50%</td> <td class=ats>37.50%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>36½</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>37</td> <td class=ats>10</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>37½</td> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>38</td> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>25.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>38½</td> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>39</td> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>39½</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>40</td> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>40½</td> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>41</td> <td class=ats>8</td> <td class=ats>42.86%</td> <td class=ats>57.14%</td> <td class=ats>12.50%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>41½</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>42</td> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>43</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>43½</td> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>44</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>45</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>46</td> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>66.67%</td> <td class=ats>33.33%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>48</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>48½</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>50.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>49½</td> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>51½</td> <td class=ats>1</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>52½</td> <td class=ats>1</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>56½</td> <td class=ats>1</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> <td class=ats>100.00%</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr><tr> <td class=ats>Total</td> <td class=ats>3,995</td> <td class=ats>49.40%</td> <td class=ats>50.60%</td> <td class=ats>1.55%</td> </tr> </table><br><sup style="font-size: 8px;">*</sup><span class=ats>&nbsp;Expressed as a percentage of non push outcomes.</span>

[Ganchrow]

Just don't read too much into the small sample size conclusions.

[Illusion]

Ganch who was the 56.5 favorite? I must have missed that one.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch who was the 56.5 favorite? I must have missed that one.

September 8<sup style="font-size: 8px"><u>th</u></sup>, 2001
UL Monroe +56.5 @ Florida

Final score: UL Monroe 6 Florida 55

[imgv94]

+2.5= 58.99%
+3 = 58.33%
+4 = 60.77%

Very interesting here.. Thanks Ganch you are definitely one of the best guys to have around.. You genius bastard...

[Illusion]

Forgot about that one, thanks Ganch.

[pags11]

unbelievable stuff as usual ganchrow...just wish I understood all of it...lol...

[bmac]

wow wish i had the brains/time for that. Great stuff...

[dave11486]

Awesome buddy just what I was lookin for

Thanks

[Willie Bee]

Ganchrow is da' man!

[primo_skillz]

wow keep it up man

[pags11]

he's a huge asset to this forum...