UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez (October 09, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 4:00 pm ET
Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden
Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau
Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo
Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn

ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
Felipe Colares vs. Chris Gutierrez
Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli
Alexandr Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa
Damon Jackson vs. Charles Rosa
Lupita Godinez vs. Sam Hughes
Steve Garcia vs. Charlie Ontiveros

[magpie878]

Not sure I really care about one match on this card.

[PaperTrail07]

man, your not kidding-its a stretch....

Not sure I really care about one match on this card.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Might need to parlay Romanov with somebody.

[Thrilla]

[hankcream]

I like Romanov, Gutierraz, & Hawes, but the juice is ridiculous even a 3 way parlay is only +108

[magpie878]

Definitely leaning Dern ITD. Sub is only +100 on DK and KO/TKO/DQ is +800. Another forum, guys said the KO prop was +1400 or +1500.

If you like Dern, that's worth a small play... hit for me nicely when Tate made her return.. DK had her by KO at +1200.

[Brandt Moat]

Been riding Dern(don't I wish) since her comeback. She seemed a bit more aggressive with her strikes last fight. She has to improve her strikes to be a real threat. This fight gives me pause. Still going to stick with her just a bet reduction of half. GL

[Pinoy-T-X]

Only way I see Dern winning is by Sub, while Rodriguez can win by decision or KO

[magpie878]

Well, based on my readings so far, Rodriguez has been taken down by much worse grapplers than Dern. And Dern has a good chin to take the punch(es) closing the distance.

But don't count out the KO/TKO in situations like this... grappling, going for a sub, not getting it, punching the face to open up the neck.. rinse repeat.. and if the sub isn't there the GNP just might be.

However, sub is most likely if she's to win, for sure.

[JIBBBY]

Too many chick fights on the main card, not liking this. Write ups anyways.






145 lbs.: Charles Rosa vs. Damon Jackson

Now seven years and 10 fights into his UFC career, Charles Rosa (14-5) continues to alternate losses and wins with clockwork regularity. His two-fight 2021 campaign has seen him suffer a decision defeat to Darrick Minner before bouncing back with a decision of his own over Justin Jaynes.
He faces a two-inch height advantage and four-inch reach disadvantage.
Four years after first leaving the world’s largest fight promotion, Damon Jackson (18-4-1) finally secured his first UFC victory by upsetting Mirsad Bektic via bonus-winning guillotine. The run wasn’t to last, as he suffered a one-punch knockout loss to top prospect Ilia Topuria soon after.
He hasn’t seen the judges since 2016 and has scored 14 submission wins overall.
Two weeks back, we saw one of Rosa’s fellow alternators lose their streak when Taila Santos handed Roxanne Modafferi her second defeat in a row. Unfortunately for “Boston Strong,” that looks like a one-off occurrence. Rosa’s complete and fundamental inability to stop a takedown figures to doom him once again against Jackson, whose top game is more than sufficient to shut down whatever offense Rosa tries to generate off of his back.
Rosa is admittedly quite a bit more durable than Jackson, who’s been knocked cold three times in his professional career, but his historical struggles with Jackson’s archetype and apparent lack of improvement in his defensive grappling despite all of those setbacks has me picking “The Leech.” In the end, Jackson cruises to victory with regular takedowns.
Prediction: Jackson via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Dern Vs Rodriguez In Vegas!

155 lbs.: Charlie Ontiveros vs. Steve Garcia

Eight years into his professional career, Charlie Ontiveros (11-7) answered the call to meet Kevin Holland in the Octagon when Makhmud Muradov withdrew. Things didn’t quite work out for the long-time Welterweight, suffering a brutal technical knockout slam lost midway through the first round (watch it).
He boasts a two-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage.
Steve Garcia (11-4) saw a potential “Contender Series” contract evaporate due to a flubbed weight cut, then missed the weight class above in his subsequent bout with Jose Mariscal. He finally reached UFC by stepping up on short notice against Luis Pena, who dominated “Mean Machine” on the ground for a wide decision.
This marks his first fight in more than 19 months.
One has to respect UFC matchmakers here; they looked at two huge dudes who can’t grapple and made the correct decision to slam ‘em against each other like action figures to see what would happen. At the risk of poisoning the experiment with a preconceived idea of the outcome, Ontiveros is getting squashed. Though he figures to be the bigger man against Garcia — who somehow used to fight at Bantamweight — his utter lack of durability figures to be his undoing once again.
Ontiveros is capable of some solid offense, as seen in his ultra-slick one-hitter quitter against Washington Luiz, but he’s got seven stoppage losses to his name and consistently gets folded when he tries to step up in class. That puncher’s chance, legitimate though it may be considering Garcia’s raw aggression, pales in the face of Ontiveros’ historical inability to stay intact. In short, Garcia bulldozes him in the first few minutes.
Prediction: Garcia via first-round knockout
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115 lbs.: Lupita Godinez vs. Sam Hughes

Lupita Godinez (5-1) — who went 1-0-1 with Hughes as an amateur — defeated Vanessa Demopoulos to claim LFA gold and a spot in the Octagon. “Loopy” wasn’t quite as successful in her UFC debut, however, dropping a split decision to the returning Jessica Penne in April 2021.
She stands three inches shorter than Hughes, who also sports a 3.5-inch reach advantage.
Though a comeback submission from the aforementioned Demopoulos ended Sam Hughes’ (5-3) bid for the LFA Strawweight title, she returned to form by choking out Danielle Hindley in impressive fashion. Her efforts got her dropped right into the UFC deep end, where she fell to striking standouts Tecia Torres and Loma Lookboonmee.
All four of her professional finishes have come inside two rounds.
With all due respect to Hughes, a very talented fighter who’s had the misfortune of fighting two top-notch kickboxers in the Octagon, this is essentially a litmus test for Godinez’s ability to execute. When she’s firing on all cylinders, she has Hughes beat virtually everywhere thanks to super-crisp boxing and impressive-if-underutilized wrestling. That said, she threw the Penne fight away with some jaw-droppingly poor decision-making and allowed Demopoulos back into their title bout after beating her half to death in the first two rounds.
I’ll go ahead and indulge my optimism by saying that the Penne loss should serve as a wake-up call, especially since Hughes lacks the elite submission skills that Godinez clearly feared. Even if it doesn’t, Hughes’ tendency to compromise her reach advantage by initiating the clinch will allow even a half-cocked Godinez to punish the body and hit takedowns as needed. Once the dust settles, Godinez enters the win column with a clear decision.
Prediction: Godinez via unanimous decision




135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez vs. Felipe Colares

Chris Gutierrez (16-3-2) boldly stepped up on a six-week turnaround to face Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut, only to suffer his first-ever professional submission loss to the Brazilian ace. Subsequent bouts proved more successful, and he enters the cage this weekend unbeaten in his last five fights.
He is the taller man by one inch, though he gives up 2.5 inches of reach.
Felipe Colares (10-2) battled his way to Jungle Fight gold in his eighth professional fight with a decision over countryman Caio Gregorio, setting up a UFC debut 16 months later. He’s now 2-2 in the world’s largest fight promotion, most recently beating Luke Sanders by gutsy decision in May 2021.
His professional finishes are split 5/2 between submissions and knockouts.
This is a very winnable but potentially hazardous match up for Gutierrez. “Cabocao’s” preference for long-range kicking battles plays right into “El Guapo’s” hands, and speaking of hands, Gutierrez is by far the more effective boxer of the two. No matter the distance, the striking is all Gutierrez. Thing is, he’ll have to stay sharp from bell to bell. That’s because Colares is borderline impossible to finish, as we saw when he absorbed about two dozen clean shots from a monstrous puncher in Montel Jackson without going down, and is a genuinely adept grappler. Gutierrez can’t get lazy like he did in the first round against Cody Durden and let Colares turn this into a ground fight.
At the end of the day, though, Gutierrez is too damn good on the feet for me to pick against him, especially considering Colares’ middling wrestling. So long as Gutierrez has learned his lesson about throwing lazy kicks at grapplers, he takes apart Colares at range for a dominant decision or late stoppage due to low kicks.
Prediction: Gutierrez via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Dern Vs Rodriguez In Vegas!

185 lbs.: Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli

*** This fight has been canceled — read full details here. ***
Undaunted by a pair of losses on “Contender Series,” Jamie Pickett (11-6) returned to the program to demolish Jhonoven Pati and finally secure a UFC contract. He’s still looking for his first Octagon victory, having fallen to fellow alumni Tafon Nchukwi and Jordan Wright in successive efforts.
“Nightwolf” will enjoy one inch of height and a whopping 10.5 inches of reach on “Pepi.”
Argentina’s Laureano Staropoli (9-4) warred his way into the Welterweight picture with entertaining wins over Hector Aldana and Thiago Alves, only to fall short against division standouts Muslim Salikhov and Tim Means. A subsequent move to Middleweight failed to produce immediate dividends, as he fell short against Georgian bruiser Roman Dolidze earlier this summer.
He’s scored five knockouts as a professional.
Even with his recent struggles, I don’t think Staropoli is a bad fighter, just someone who got pushed too hard, too fast. While I’m still not sold on Middleweight being his ideal division, I do like his chances here; Pickett is notoriously vulnerable to aggressive strikers due to his poor cage awareness, making him an ostensibly easy mark for the all-action Argentinean. It’s not like Pickett’s reach will do him much good, either, as he constantly struggles to keep smaller men at a distance.
It’s not that I don’t like Pickett or that he can’t do some damage when he turns up the heat, but he’s just too fundamentally flawed to beat even a standard-issue slugger like “Pepi.” In the end, Staropoli walks him down and overpowers him inside for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Staropoli via unanimous decision
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265 lbs.: Alexandr Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa

Moldova’s Alexandr Romanov (14-0) stormed onto UFC’s Heavyweight scene with dominant finishes of Roque Martinez and Marcos Rogerio de Lima, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” Then “King Kong” had quite a bit more trouble with The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner Juan Espino, but ultimately emerged victorious by technical decision.
His 13 stoppage wins include nine by submission.
Though he powered through a shaky start to beat Harry Hunsucker on “Contender Series,” Jared Vanderaa (12-5) had few answers for Sergey Spivak’s wrestling in the Octagon, resulting in a second-round technical knockout loss. “Mountain” turned things around in a big way his next time out, however, outstriking Justin Tafa to claim both a decision win and “Fight of the Night.”
He is the taller of the two by three inches and will enjoy five inches of reach on Romanov.
Credit where it’s due: Vanderaa showed truly astonishing striking improvement between his first and second UFC bouts. I’d written him off as someone who needed to score takedowns as quickly as possible, but he showed strong kickboxing craft and a terrific gas tank for someone his size. He’s undoubtedly the better of the two on the feet, a discrepancy that figures to grow larger and larger as the rounds progress.
That said, it remains to be seen whether he’s fixed his takedown defense, as he was a sitting duck for Spivak. That uncertainty has me leaning towards Romanov, as even with that poor performance against Espino, “King Kong” is enormously dangerous when he can consistently get on top. While it’s far, far closer than the bookies have it, I like Romanov to return to form, dragging Vanderaa down early and going to town until the ref steps in.
Prediction: Romanov via first round technical knockout

[magpie878]

Winn OUT vs Hawes

[hankcream]

I'd really like to take Tim Elliot +165 especially with James Krause in his corner, but it will probably go to decision and I don't trust the judges. I was screwed over once with this Nicolau when he fought Manel Kape.

[Demonata]

This is a hard card! Makes it more fun

[magpie878]

So Winn was out vs Hawes.

Chris Curtis stepped up on late notice to take the fight.

Curtis makes weight.

Hawes declines the opponent change (Dana will NOT be happy).

James Krause (who's in Elliot's corner, as mentioned above) offers to step on the scale and take the Curtis fight.

[PaperTrail07]

whoa LOL...

So Winn was out vs Hawes.

Chris Curtis stepped up on late notice to take the fight.

Curtis makes weight.

Hawes declines the opponent change (Dana will NOT be happy).

James Krause (who's in Elliot's corner, as mentioned above) offers to step on the scale and take the Curtis fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Eliott +160
Agapova +160
Marina +150

Good card for the dogs

[magpie878]

Eliott +160
Agapova +160
Marina +150

Good card for the dogs

You like Rodriguez ML, meaning she may finish her? If anything, I really think she'd win a decision. Couldn't even stop tiny Waterson.

(edit: and Agapova, my opinion is win in round 1 for her or gas out and lose)

[PaperTrail07]

I think that Dern has never gone 5 and may gas....if what dern is doing is not working and she gasses out....marina may find a way....
as far as Agapova, I just think shes got the skills, and she will come out smarter this time....

You like Rodriguez ML, meaning she may finish her? If anything, I really think she'd win a decision. Couldn't even stop tiny Waterson.

(edit: and Agapova, my opinion is win in round 1 for her or gas out and lose)

[JIBBBY]

What is with these early start times? UFC should be prime time at night on Saturdays. Come on man!!

[Thrilla]

[JC2008]

What is with these early start times? UFC should be prime time at night on Saturdays. Come on man!!

Fury/Wilder III tonight at T-Mobile?

[JIBBBY]

Fury/Wilder III tonight at T-Mobile?

Yup, forgot about that.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking Godinez UD (30-27 x2, 29-28) for the next one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

D. Jackson (-192) 0.8u to win 0.42u

[dawg58kahn]

D. Jackson (-192) 0.8u to win 0.42u

what book do u use dawg? i can never find the same line as u lmao

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ #52: Dern vs. Rodriguez Picks:
Steve Garcia Round 1 TKO (Knees and Punches)
Lupita Godinez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Damon Jackson Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alexander Romanov Round 2 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Chris Gutierrez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sabina Mazo Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Matheus Nicolau Round 1 Submission (Japanese Necktie)
Randy Brown Round 2 TKO (Knee and Punches)
Mackenzie Dern Round 1 Submission (Armbar)

[Hugo de Naranja]

what book do u use dawg? i can never find the same line as u lmao

Draftkings mostly. Occasionally a few other US books.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ #52: Dern vs. Rodriguez

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Garcia vs. Ontiveros
No Bet

Fight #2: Godinez vs. Gomez Juarez
No Bet

Fight #3: D. Jackson vs. C. Rosa
D. Jackson (-192) 0.8u to win 0.42u

Fight #4: Romanov vs. Vanderaa
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #5: Gutierrez vs. Colares
Parlays

Fight #6: Mazo vs. Agapova
No Bet

Fight #7: Nicolau vs. Elliott
Parlays

Fight #8: R. Brown vs. Gooden
No Bet

Fight #9: Dern vs. M. Rodriguez
No Bet

Straight Parlays:
Gutierrez/Nicolau (+125) 0.4u

[Sanity Check]

Mackenzie Dern fought 4 months after giving birth and lost to Amanda Ribas.

Nina Ansaroff fought 6 months after giving birth and lost to Mackenzie Dern.

[frankieunits2685]

Blood bath

[Sanity Check]

The bleeding shouldn't affect him.

Pro wrestling matches have had 10 times more blood than that.

[JIBBBY]

Damon Jackson is bad ass. Many fighters would panic leaking like that. Big heart.

Won't fade him in the future. Solid wrestling and grappling.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Nicolau Submission (+500) 0.1u

[JIBBBY]

Added:
Nicolau Submission (+500) 0.1u

I had that prop as well. He pounded him out instead .

I hate when that happens Hugo. ITD was the call. Can't get greedy with the odds.