Jon Cursi: Bitcoin videos

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK. A few things:

1) These videos are dated. All 3 years old.

2) What ever happened to this guy? Would love to know.

3) His simple videos are the best Bitcoin videos I've seen.
...He's honest and balanced. His predictions weren't over the top.

As much as I'd love to see more Jon Cursi videos, these old videos are like a time capsule. You see him make a 2021 projection from back in 2020. Similarly, he makes a 2023 projection from back in 2020.

Low and behold, he was not far off on 2020 projecting 2021.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Late 2019: Jon's prediction for 2021 BTC price.

I'm not sure of the exact date he posted this. Let's say 10/1/2019. That should be pretty close.

At 3:00 he mentions historical trends:
*Best time to BUY was one year b4 the HALVING.
*Best time to SELL was one year after the HALVING.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

He talked about the Ratios for Lo-to-Hi. Before 2021, he estimated a DOWN-SIZING of the Ratios at a factor of 5. Listen the video, he explains it better than I can.

His prediction for May 2021 was $50,000. Wound up being $68,000. So, he was actually low.

But I'd say he that was a great call. Pretty close, considering how volatile this asset is.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In this video (from 2020), Jon gives his prediction for BTC price of $100,000 in 2023.

He uses the Stock to Flow model. I know this method has some critics.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm going to re-watch Jon's videos. Very good.

I will be back in coming days w/ some input assumptions that apply to Jon's projection model. Will make a few tweaks of my own.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

To generate the Jon Cursi projections for BTC, have to get the inputs right.

1) The Peak/Trough ratio.
2) How much this ratio is receding over time.
3) Date of the next halving. Approximating the trough at t-1...and the peak at t+1.

Ponder these. I'll be be back in coming days.

Good news is that the price is rising. +50% in recent weeks. And we're not yet at the t-1 date.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Saw a fractal picture from 2019 before the last halving. From that comparable point in time, BTC price bumped up +43% in the following 30 days.

Current BTC price on 2/18/2023 = $24,571.

If we apply the +43%, BTC price on 3/18/2023 = $35,100.

Will that price come to fruition? BTC price to $30,000+ on 3/18/2023?

[Arky]

Late 2019: Jon's prediction for 2021 BTC price.

I'm not sure of the exact date he posted this. Let's say 10/1/2019. That should be pretty close.

[/video]

At 3:00 he mentions historical trends:
*Best time to BUY was one year b4 the HALVING.
*Best time to SELL was one year after the HALVING.

Next Bitcoin halving is predicted for March 5, 2024.

That would make March 5, 2023 roughly the best time to buy and March 5, 2025 the best time to sell.

I realize these are rough estimates. I consider "right now" and the next several months to be buying season and think we got a while to go before 30K will be hit although I've been wrong before.

There's been much uncertainty in the world. The dollar looks like it is headed for failure. There's been a little bit of a decouple with stocks going down and crypto going up. I have no idea how crypto would handle a catastrophic financial crash of the legacy markets. Precious metals (gold/silver) are the safest bet of all.

War is a possibility.

One thing - do not participate in any upcoming CBDC programs. Do not comply. They may offer a $100 or $500 sign up bonus to convert your wealth to the CBDC and everything is peachy for a few years.... Then... here comes the control and overreach. If enough people say no, it ain't happening....

"They" did this with the internet. I can remember when the internet felt like the wild west. No so anymore with the all the censorship and agendas being pushed....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Arky. Thanks for the reply.

I'll hammer out details on my input and list a BTC price prediction in coming days.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know there's some variation on the estimated halving date for 2024. I see most estimates being some time in March 2024. Here's what I found:

		Halving
Cycle	t - 1	Date	t + 1
1	11/29/2011	11/28/2012	11/28/2013
2	7/10/2015	7/9/2016	7/9/2017
3	5/12/2019	5/11/2020	5/11/2021
4	3/19/2023	3/18/2024	3/18/2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Presenting another table. Hope it pastes OK. Key is what to use for a reasonable Expected Peak/Trough ratio:

	BITCOIN PRICES
Cycle	t - 1	Date	t + 1	Peak/Trough	PROFIT
1	$ 2.55	$ 12.20	$ 1,032	404.71	403.71
2	$ 285	$ 651	$ 2,518	8.84	7.84
3	$ 6,956	$ 8,605	$ 56,670	8.15	7.15
4	$ 25,500

[Arky]

Presenting another table. Hope it pastes OK. Key is what to use for a reasonable Expected Peak/Trough ratio:

	BITCOIN PRICES
Cycle	t - 1	Date	t + 1	Peak/Trough	PROFIT
1	$ 2.55	$ 12.20	$ 1,032	404.71	403.71
2	$ 285	$ 651	$ 2,518	8.84	7.84
3	$ 6,956	$ 8,605	$ 56,670	8.15	7.15
4	$ 25,500

If you have trouble making sense of the chart, I believe it goes like this:

1. t-1 = 1 year before the halving
2. Date = The halving
3. t+1 = 1 year after the halving
4. Peak/Trough = t+1 divided by t-1. (this might be clearer if the number was followed by an "X". For example, in cycle 2, if you bought one year before the halving and sold 1 year after the halving, you 8.84x'ed your money)
5. Profit = this is Peak/Trough minus 1x where 1x is the initial investment. Cycle 2 has a net profit of 7.84x.

Sounds like a pretty sound strategy to me, Chucky. Buy one year before, sell one year after. Never thought of it this way....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, Arky. Yes, agree with everything in your explanation. 7.84x would be an improvement on the presentation.

John was liberal on his Peak price in cycle 2. So, I'm off a bit compared to the 80x he references.

Key is trying to estimate the Peak/Trough ratio correctly. I think that # is going to well below historical, mostly b/c the blowout on cycle #1 was against an immature market. Should still be well above any inflation figure.

[themike78]

Bitcoin will be worth about 3 cents next week and never go up again.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So, I'll be looking forward to what the 3/19/2023 price lands on. Could see it going up a bit coming weeks.

Last input to get right is the Peak/Trough ratio. Some may look at post 12 and say it's come in at 8.00x each of the Last two cycles. I (personally) think that's too high.

As the Bitcoin market matures, I don't think the pops will be so dramatic. I certainly don't want to sound like a Moon-boy. So, I'm planning to list two projections, a Realistic one and an Optimistic one.

More to come on this. I have a few more subtle comments on how Jon did his projection. Thanks for reading.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arky, 25030. Off to the races.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So, I'll be looking forward to what the 3/19/2023 price lands on. Could see it going up a bit coming weeks.

Last input to get right is the Peak/Trough ratio. Some may look at post 12 and say it's come in at 8.00x each of the Last two cycles. I (personally) think that's too high.

As the Bitcoin market matures, I don't think the pops will be so dramatic. I certainly don't want to sound like a Moon-boy. So, I'm planning to list two projections, a Realistic one and an Optimistic one.

More to come on this. I have a few more subtle comments on how Jon did his projection. Thanks for reading.

Here's where I think Jon cheats on the dates a little. Maybe not CHEAT, but he's liberal with his Peak definition at t+1.

He uses a post-Halving peak of 12/2021 (value = $20,000). That's where he's getting the 80x figure.

I'm strictly using the t+1 = 7/9/2021. I looked up the price and found $2518. That's why I don't match the 80x he quotes.

Jon has great info. For my purposes, I'm going to strictly follow the t+1 periodicity.

[Arky]

Arky, 25030. Off to the races.

I dunno, I think Bitcoin is right where it is supposed to be right now. As most everyone knows, Bitcoin went under it's previous (2017) all time high of 20K a while back - it had never done that before. I think it was a combination of LUNA and Celsius that prematurely ended the bull market and then SBF applied the coup de grâce to bury things more so than they should have been. So, there's definitely a bear market going on but I think this is probably the level it should have bottomed out at without all the shenanigans....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's what I'm going to use for my REALISTIC projection:

	LN SCALE
Cycle	Peak/Trough	Peak/Trough
1	6.00	404.71
2	2.18	8.84
3	2.10	8.15
4	0.45	1.57
y = -3.77ln(x) + 5.68

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's what I'm going to use for my OPTIMISTIC projection:

	LN(LN) SCALE
Cycle	Peak/Trough	Peak/Trough
1	1.79	404.71
2	0.78	8.84
3	0.74	8.15
4	0.21	3.45
y = -1.072ln(x) + 1.70

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So, here's what I'm saying. Depending on how flat you think the curve will look, I think the Peak/Trough ratio will fall between: 1.57x and 3.45x.

Don't need to listen to me. Just my opinion.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

George (CryptosRUs) has posted some good info that shows the fractals look good. Approaching the t-1 date.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Almost time. Will chime in with my official projection this weekend.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know there's some variation on the estimated halving date for 2024. I see most estimates being some time in March 2024. Here's what I found:

		Halving
Cycle	t - 1	Date	t + 1
1	11/29/2011	11/28/2012	11/28/2013
2	7/10/2015	7/9/2016	7/9/2017
3	5/12/2019	5/11/2020	5/11/2021
4	3/19/2023	3/18/2024	3/18/2025

OK, boys. It's 3/19/2023. We're 365 days out from the halving.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm working off posts 20 and 21:

*My projections for 3/18/2025 (730 days from now):

...REALISTIC (1.57x) = $43,000.
...OPTIMISTIC (3.45x) = $94,000.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm comfortable with these projections. I'm working off the Jon Cursi model. I'm NOT adjusting for any current economic factors.*

*Take that for what it's worth.

BTC price projections lead to a wide range of reactions. Doubters will tell me that it's going to zero. Moon Boys will tell me that I'm way too low.

I feel very good about the Realistic projection of $43,000 in two years. That's a pretty modest projection of +25% compounded annually. I don't think the $43k is over-reaching at all.

The $94,000 projection is optimistic. It can happen. The last two Cursi data-points magnified 8x. I believe that number has to come down against a more mature market. Can't just keep bloating.

Of course, any BTC holder will feel good about a price appreciation. As I check back on this thread over the next 730 days, I hope the big criticism is that I was light on my predictions.

I'd be good with that. Good Luck, boys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm working off posts 20 and 21:

*My projections for 3/18/2025 (730 days from now):

...REALISTIC (1.57x) = $43,000.
...OPTIMISTIC (3.45x) = $94,000.

I should have posted that I was working off a base of 27,400. That was the price at time of post.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. Too early to do it now, but I'll update periodically.

My basic thesis is that I expect the BTC price to show geometric growth of +25% or more over these 730 days. I have seen some videos that view t=the Halving Date with analysis t-500Days to t+500 Days.

BTC price history has definitely shown some periodicity. If it acts as a fractal, the pattern can be similar.

Of course, this doesn't consider the concept of Real vs Nominal. If the USD bottoms out, then the BTC/USD ratio becomes less meaningful. You can buy Au (or Ag) on SDBullion with BTC, so that effectively makes SDBullion an exchange for BTC to precious metals.

[Arky]

...

Of course, this doesn't consider the concept of Real vs Nominal. If the USD bottoms out, then the BTC/USD ratio becomes less meaningful. You can buy Au (or Ag) on SDBullion with BTC, so that effectively makes SDBullion an exchange for BTC to precious metals.

Add JMBullion.com as another that accepts crypto.

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[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm working off posts 20 and 21:

*My projections for 3/18/2025 (730 days from now):

...REALISTIC (1.57x) = $43,000.
...OPTIMISTIC (3.45x) = $94,000.

I sometimes get overwhelmed with the BTC fluctuations. Easy to over-react.

My basic thesis was that it's REASONABLE to think BTC would grow at a geometric rate of > +25% across the halving cycle. Would like to hear more case studies on BTC use in inflation-challenged nations. It has to be better to hold BTC than local currencies that are being inflated away.

[ByeShea]

I sometimes get overwhelmed with the BTC fluctuations. Easy to over-react.

My basic thesis was that it's REASONABLE to think BTC would grow at a geometric rate of > +25% across the halving cycle. Would like to hear more case studies on BTC use in inflation-challenged nations. It has to be better to hold BTC than local currencies that are being inflated away.

I'm not a Bitcoin or crypto expert, but my guess would be you will be able to flag this past week for future reference.

Take a look at some of the institutional names that have committed themselves, this week, to BTC or crypto related platforms: Fidelity, Blackrock, Schwab, and Citadel.

That is a fukkin' ridiculous roster - the very biggest names in the financial marketplace. And they do not commit billions only to get checked by the SEC. To me, it's a huge green light for crypto going forward.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm working off posts 20 and 21:

*My projections for 3/18/2025 (730 days from now):

...REALISTIC (1.57x) = $43,000.
...OPTIMISTIC (3.45x) = $94,000.

Bump. Checking in at approximately 1/3 between Start/Finish dates.

$35,600 right now. I'd say that $43,000 looks to be a reasonable projection. Well on our way.

[raiders72001]

Bump. Checking in at approximately 1/3 between Start/Finish dates.

$35,600 right now. I'd say that $43,000 looks to be a reasonable projection. Well on our way.

$43k top? Way over that. 43 doesn't even pass the previous high and that's never happened.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

$43k top? Way over that. 43 doesn't even pass the previous high and that's never happened.

Thx, Raider. Just trying to keep the projections reasonable.

By the way, anecdotally check out the US consumer inflation right now. Basic items like a can of soda or a Donut. Thru the roof in the L12 months.