Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

U.S. markets closed for the day. Gary COHN resigns - indexes down after-hours. Will all stock guys here please check in as often as possible and impart your wisdom? thank you!!

as for me I sold SOXL today. my entry point was 160 last week. i sold at 179 today. i am only holding TQQQ with entry point 158 last week. today it closed 169 but i am still holding. i am waiting for any and all dips and corrections so i can get back in and scoop up other positions.

calling these posters and more to please chime in daily or weekly:

MAC4LYFE
NEWGUY
ALECMATT5
HOCKEYROCKS
FLORIDAGOLFER
D2BETS
A4K

Thank you in advance for sharing what you know!!

[homie1975]

Dow futures fell more than 300 points on Tuesday evening after Cohn announced plans to step down amid a disagreement with Trump over trade policy. S&P 500 futures slid more than 1%.

[homie1975]

have we ever had a president so tied to the stock market in terms of him valuing his brand in direct correlation to how the market does? he literally tweets things just to prop up the market! but we should be taking advantage of it

[homie1975]

sizzling jobs report, trump protects our friends in the tariff, and is willing to meet with kim jong un, all having a very positive effect on the market. enjoy the ride while it lasts because another huge selloff and correction is on the way sooner than you think

[homie1975]

unreal what is happening in the stock market right now

trump tax cuts for everyone, where will the money come from? major recession on the way within 3-4 years maybe sooner.

i'm sorry but this cannot sustain. no way.

[Drew Martin]

inefficient markets can last for a while tho homie, I dont necessarily disagree with you, but trying to pick a spot to short the market is a tough game to play.

[hostile takeover]

Fuking geeeeeezzz.

...when people try to pick a top or bottom due to their political bias. Doesn't work man. Need to adapt.

When it happens, it will happen and not before. Then you and everyone else can claim they picked it right.

[homie1975]

Fuking geeeeeezzz.

...when people try to pick a top or bottom due to their political bias. Doesn't work man. Need to adapt.

When it happens, it will happen and not before. Then you and everyone else can claim they picked it right.

I'm a libertarian. I believe in small govt. But if u don't tax enough u increase the deficit greatly even by cutting some social programs

[homie1975]

History shows whwn the marker climbs to all time highs, look out. Better yet. Sell sell sell

[RoyBacon]

History shows whwn the marker climbs to all time highs, look out. Better yet. Sell sell sell

Good luck with that. If you back test it you will find you make a fortune when you buy at an all time high. They are usually followed up with many many more.

I would agree these valuations are very high. You look at CAT, great company, but historically trades at 14x earnings and is now trading at 21x next years earnings. That's a lot of skin to grow into. But Q1 is going to show accelerating earnings. The only question now is are prices too far ahead of even great earnings.

In about 4 weeks we get our first Q1 reports. Watch how traders treat them. If they are solid and stocks sells off it will be a tell-tale sign. But if they jump up then I would expect the rally to continue.

[HockeyRocks]

Homie, sounds like you rely on tweets from the President on when to buy and sell? IMO, doing so will turn your investments to dust...

[Madison]

Good luck with that. If you back test it you will find you make a fortune when you buy at an all time high. They are usually followed up with many many more.

I would agree these valuations are very high. You look at CAT, great company, but historically trades at 14x earnings and is now trading at 21x next years earnings. That's a lot of skin to grow into. But Q1 is going to show accelerating earnings. The only question now is are prices too far ahead of even great earnings.

In about 4 weeks we get our first Q1 reports. Watch how traders treat them. If they are solid and stocks sells off it will be a tell-tale sign. But if they jump up then I would expect the rally to continue.

FWIW, Ive been toying since 85-86. Right now the one thing I can't seem to grasp is the devaluation of our currency and why the FED prolonged interest rate hikes. They know something. A roll of toilet paper is worth more than a dollar. Housing is a good barometer. I'm in the NE so skew as you see fit but what people are paying for housing is out of bounds. Check out 6 Carver St Beverly Ma.

[HockeyRocks]

Good luck with that. If you back test it you will find you make a fortune when you buy at an all time high. They are usually followed up with many many more.

I would agree these valuations are very high. You look at CAT, great company, but historically trades at 14x earnings and is now trading at 21x next years earnings. That's a lot of skin to grow into. But Q1 is going to show accelerating earnings. The only question now is are prices too far ahead of even great earnings.

In about 4 weeks we get our first Q1 reports. Watch how traders treat them. If they are solid and stocks sells off it will be a tell-tale sign. But if they jump up then I would expect the rally to continue.

I have owned CAT on/off over the years.....Won't a trade war over steel and aluminum affect them, especially their bottom line...

[RoyBacon]

I have owned CAT on/off over the years.....Won't a trade war over steel and aluminum affect them, especially their bottom line...

No, not materially.

CAT is a global infrastructure play. A good one too. There is a lot of competition in the heavy equipment category so this is not a BA, AMZN, GOOG, UPS, ect. And it's a hell of a well managed company. A darling. But even a Rolls Royce is over priced at some price. Wouldnt be a seller of CAT this year or next or the next. Global infrastructure is just getting going.

[HockeyRocks]

No, not materially.

CAT is a global infrastructure play. A good one too. There is a lot of competition in the heavy equipment category so this is not a BA, AMZN, GOOG, UPS, ect. And it's a hell of a well managed company. A darling. But even a Rolls Royce is over priced at some price. Wouldnt be a seller of CAT this year or next or the next. Global infrastructure is just getting going.

The proposed tariffs would not only increase imported steel prices, but domestic steel prices as well, putting CAT at a disadvantage against it's non U.S. competitors. To think differently is delusional...

[RoyBacon]

The proposed tariffs would not only increase imported steel prices, but domestic steel prices as well, putting CAT at a disadvantage against it's non U.S. competitors. To think differently is delusional...

It's not material. CAT has a huge advantage in financing, quality, currency base, distributorships, technology and on and on. The tax cuts are extremely material in comparison. A tariff on steel does not mean the price is passed on to the OEM's. A little might or might not. Those foreign companies are going to eat most if not all the tariff costs to keep market share.

[homie1975]

correction in progress as we speak

[homie1975]

BA - Boeing --- taking the entire DOW down with it.

trump trade war with china fears

[homie1975]

Homie, sounds like you rely on tweets from the President on when to buy and sell? IMO, doing so will turn your investments to dust...

HR just watch him tweet something very early tomorrow morning to try and prop the market back up. You know he hinges his reputation as Prez on how the stock market fares

[homie1975]

market all over the place - no one has anything to say about it ?!?!?!??

[vitterd]

Last I heard the market was great. Jt315 told me it was going just fine?

[jjgold]

Try to trade on a daily basis or even a weekly basis you’ll lose your house

[RoyBacon]

Last I heard the market was great. Jt315 told me it was going just fine?

I don't think you can buy stocks with food stamps.

Record highs by mid April, 1st qtr results.

[vitterd]

I don't think you can buy stocks with food stamps.

Record highs by mid April, 1st qtr results.

Ohhhhhh....the old food stamp burn....tough one to recover from.

[homie1975]

extremely choppy market Boys. does it have another bull run in it ??

[d2bets]

I don't think you can buy stocks with food stamps.

Record highs by mid April, 1st qtr results.

Very few quarterly results in early April. Most are late April and early May.

[homie1975]

Very few quarterly results in early April. Most are late April and early May.

right.

how far will stocks drop when the fed raises the rates next week?

[d2bets]

right.

how far will stocks drop when the fed raises the rates next week?

Not necessarily. That's expected.

[chase1]

Stocks will probably go up. Every time they have raised rates the market has gone up. Look it up. Logic would tell you that people would start investing in bonds, CDs and more money going into savings which may be true but it won't matter...even after they have raised them 3-4 times as predicted. Next week when they raise rates it won't matter either as the previous poster said. It's already baked in. Don't you think mutual fund managers, investors and the like already know about rates.

I'm sure stocks will be volatile but that's what makes a market. It's completely healthy as are corrections.
The market will continue to grind higher and will be hitting new highs by spring or early summer. The charts are shaping up nicely and plus we are nowhere near the euphoria stage when everybody is on board and thinks we are going higher. Too much money on the sidelines. Most people have missed the rally from of March '09.

[guitarjosh]

Yield curve is getting quite flat, some spreads haven't been flatter since 2007

[homie1975]

Stocks will probably go up. Every time they have raised rates the market has gone up. Look it up. Logic would tell you that people would start investing in bonds, CDs and more money going into savings which may be true but it won't matter...even after they have raised them 3-4 times as predicted. Next week when they raise rates it won't matter either as the previous poster said. It's already baked in. Don't you think mutual fund managers, investors and the like already know about rates.

I'm sure stocks will be volatile but that's what makes a market. It's completely healthy as are corrections.
The market will continue to grind higher and will be hitting new highs by spring or early summer. The charts are shaping up nicely and plus we are nowhere near the euphoria stage when everybody is on board and thinks we are going higher. Too much money on the sidelines. Most people have missed the rally from of March '09.

so when Ms. Yellen said the stock market is overvalued back in Feb when the DOW and S&P were at all time highs, she was off her rocker? come on man - people were singing the same tune you are about the market in 2007 and what happened?

when things are good, people forget how bad they used to be.

how about this for a prediction: on 12/31/2018 the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ will ALL be lower than they are right now.

i am a Bull by nature but it's clear to me that a Bear market is on the way. Way too many stocks are insanely overvalued right now.

[chase1]

No sir it's not the same tune. Back in 2007 things were well but not like this. We were headed to a financial crisis. Come on man, stocks can be overvalued and still go higher. Janet Yellen has been saying they are a "little" overvalued for awhile now not just in Feb and you think her words cautioned this market? That's laughable. That is what's keeping people from missing the greatest rally in the history of the stock market. I've been in since 2010. Keep waiting on that correction and when we get a 10% correction you will say "see see I told you" and I'll be great "were having a sale". I certainly remember how bad they used to be but don't fall into the trap that we have to have a crash. We don't "have to have anything".

I'm not into predictions but would be very surprised if we are lower at the end of year. A bear market is on the way because....................overvaluation ? We are not that overvalued anyway. Corporate earnings are matching up with their profits nicely. We still have another leg or two to go in this BULL market. Don't let the media scare you and keep you on the sidelines. Stay the course and don't sell during corrections. It's a good thing to have.

[guitarjosh]

so when Ms. Yellen said the stock market is overvalued back in Feb when the DOW and S&P were at all time highs, she was off her rocker? come on man - people were singing the same tune you are about the market in 2007 and what happened?

when things are good, people forget how bad they used to be.

how about this for a prediction: on 12/31/2018 the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ will ALL be lower than they are right now.

i am a Bull by nature but it's clear to me that a Bear market is on the way. Way too many stocks are insanely overvalued right now.

No sir it's not the same tune. Back in 2007 things were well but not like this. We were headed to a financial crisis. Come on man, stocks can be overvalued and still go higher. Janet Yellen has been saying they are a "little" overvalued for awhile now not just in Feb and you think her words cautioned this market? That's laughable. That is what's keeping people from missing the greatest rally in the history of the stock market. I've been in since 2010. Keep waiting on that correction and when we get a 10% correction you will say "see see I told you" and I'll be great "were having a sale". I certainly remember how bad they used to be but don't fall into the trap that we have to have a crash. We don't "have to have anything".

I'm not into predictions but would be very surprised if we are lower at the end of year. A bear market is on the way because....................overvaluation ? We are not that overvalued anyway. Corporate earnings are matching up with their profits nicely. We still have another leg or two to go in this BULL market. Don't let the media scare you and keep you on the sidelines. Stay the course and don't sell during corrections. It's a good thing to have.

The difference between 2007 and now is that in 2007 the yield curve had already been inverted for quite some time. We haven't had an inverted yield curve since 2007. Yes, there can be a bear market without a recession, but they're usually small bear markets and very brief. The 2001 recession was preceded by a yield curve inversion that first happened in the fall of 1998. The 1990 recession was preceded by an inversion that first happened in December of 1988.

[homie1975]

tariff cloud? check.
fed meeting tomorrow and rate most likely going up? check.
mueller team closing in on trump and making our prez go nuts and close to requesting firing of special counsel? check.


a recipe for a free fall. and it's happening as we speak.

[homie1975]

Stocks will probably go up. Every time they have raised rates the market has gone up. Look it up. Logic would tell you that people would start investing in bonds, CDs and more money going into savings which may be true but it won't matter...even after they have raised them 3-4 times as predicted. Next week when they raise rates it won't matter either as the previous poster said. It's already baked in. Don't you think mutual fund managers, investors and the like already know about rates.

I'm sure stocks will be volatile but that's what makes a market. It's completely healthy as are corrections.
The market will continue to grind higher and will be hitting new highs by spring or early summer. The charts are shaping up nicely and plus we are nowhere near the euphoria stage when everybody is on board and thinks we are going higher. Too much money on the sidelines. Most people have missed the rally from of March '09.

not baked in. main reason the markets are tumbling today is the expected rate increase. next part is trade war cloud still looming plus mueller special counsel closing in on trump and he is itching to order their firing