Unders are easier than overs

[Gaze73]

I'm 15-17 with overs at 1.79/-127
31-21 with unders at 1.92/-109

And I had handful of 4-5 goal 3Ps to ruin the unders, like Islanders today. Overs suck, even the best team in the league just hit 10 under 5.5s in a row.

[str]

I'm 15-17 with overs at 1.79/-127
31-21 with unders at 1.92/-109

And I had handful of 4-5 goal 3Ps to ruin the unders, like Islanders today. Overs suck, even the best team in the league just hit 10 under 5.5s in a row.

Before the games start, it is typically more comfortable to play overs than unders, very similar to favorites vs. dogs. It is in general an easier watch for people. Novice players will lean this way as well. I was told that when I was 20 yrs. old by a seasoned bookie from old school Baltimore. Mickey really taught me a lot but he was looking for winners at the track and I was a rookie horse trainer. Kind of like the old Bob Segar song, I used him, he used me but neither one cared. We were both getting our share... of solid advice from each other. I went to his funeral when he passed away about 10 years later. That guy was really special. We both learned a lot from one another.

[EnTaroTuna]

I see this as well, +EV plays are more often than not on the unders. People like betting the overs because it's exciting and fun when there are lots of baskets/goals/runs, and not enough people taking the unders so books offer a higher line/odds.

[slewfan]

Nothing worse than betting an under and the bet is lost in the 2nd period.

but I do remember having an over 5,5 with the score 3-2 after the first period. I was counting my money. Well, needless to say, that is the way the game ended. That is not the nor though. If I have an over bet, I would rather see a 3-1 score than a 2-2 score at any time in the game.

then there are times when teams try to protect that one or two goal lead by just dumping the puck out of the defensive zone. This rarely seems to work in their favor.

I personally do not favor betting unders.

then there’s always the vig. Which is usually higher on the overs. Over the course of this is very important to the bottom line.

[COLOR=var(--bbQxAb)]While we are on the topic of over/under, let's check in on the overall data this season. Of the 444 games through Monday, 238 games have been under (53.6%), while 206 games have been over (46.4%). But, when it comes to games with 6.5 total, 160 games have been under (57.8%), while 117 games have been over (42.2%).[/COLOR][COLOR=var(--IXoxUe)]Dec 11, 2024[/COLOR]

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[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm 15-17 with overs at 1.79/-127
31-21 with unders at 1.92/-109

And I had handful of 4-5 goal 3Ps to ruin the unders, like Islanders today. Overs suck, even the best team in the league just hit 10 under 5.5s in a row.

I used to feel the same way. But it's very sport-specific.

Consider low-scoring games like Baseball, Soccer, and Hockey. The distributions are left-truncated. IE, there COULD be 18 goals...but you can't go lower than zero (or one).
...Impact is that you have a lot of low scores and a few high scores.
...Median does not line up with Mean in these scores.
...If the Oddsmaker doesn't adjust, Under can be value.

Subjectively, Soccer often feels like a game that can't get goals. Well-organized defenses can be hard to break down. Especially if the GK and Central Defenders are big. They occupy so much space in the box.

Baseball can feel similar. A good defense behind a stingy pitcher can make it feel so hard to score. Add in a good relief corps, and Good Luck.

Anyway, GL with the plays. And have fun w/ it.

[BlownSave]

I overwhelmingly prefer NHL unders versus overs. I could quit my day job if it wasn't for empty-net goals. For every one that helps me, twenty go against me. Back to work....

[BlownSave]

Medians and means are most skewed in baseball today because position players are now soft-tossing pitches to the opponent in blowouts. The batters feast, more runs score. This is happening a lot now.