Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 02-13-25, 09:13 AM

Early Daytona 500 predictions from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Favorite Pick: Kyle Busch (+1400 BetMGM):

"In 1998, Dale Earnhardt won his first and only Daytona 500 in his 20th attempt. In 2025, Busch will attempt his 20th Daytona 500 with a chance to win his first.

Busch is one of the favorites for this year’s Great American Race, and for good reasons. He nearly won at this track last summer and has a whopping seven career top-threes in points-paying races at the race, including a win in the 2008 summer race."

Contender Pick: Noah Gragson (+5000 BetMGM)

"Gragson’s move to Front Row Motorsports could easily be lost in the shuffle amidst such a busy offseason.

Now might be a good time to remember that this team won pole for five of six superspeedway events last year. He couldn’t pull that off for last year’s Daytona 500, but he still started in second.

Gragson doesn’t have a great resume on superspeedways in the Cup Series, but he has won both here and at Talladega in the Xfinity Series. With Fords having led over half the laps on superspeedways since 2022, Gragson is likelier to win this race than the odds suggest."

Longshot Pick: Zane Smith (+800 Caesars)

"The disrespect the books show to the two new Front Row Motorsports drivers is unreal. Like Gragson, Smith switched to this team in the offseason to little fanfare. But forgetting about this team, especially on superspeedways, can be costly.

Smith is no stranger to Victory Lane at Daytona. He won back-to-back Truck Series races (with Front Row, no less) in 2022 and 2023. In three Cup Series starts at this track, Smith somehow has three 13th-place finishes to his name - that’s a lucky sign, right?"

**Optional** · 02-13-25, 09:17 AM

I agree with both Gragson and Smith as longshot picks. Probably heavier on top 10 for them though.

Carson Hocevar another longshot worth thinking about.

Disagree about Kyle Busch though. Think he is really quite a false favorite. Think he should be in that group of +2600 to +2800 guys.

**SBR Andy** · 02-13-25, 09:22 AM

A reminder that you can find the best odds for your Daytona 500 bets on the SBR Props Tool!

**SBR Andy** · 02-14-25, 11:20 AM

Daytona 500 betting history:

Year	Winner	Odds
2024	William Byron	+1800
2023	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+3300
2022	Austin Cindric	+3300
2021	Michael McDowell	+10000
2020	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2019	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2018	Austin Dillon	+5000
2017	Kurt Busch	+2000
2016	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2015	Joey Logano	+1200
2014	Dale Earnhart Jr.	+1200
2013	Jimmie Johnson	+1400

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-14-25, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Daytona 500 betting history:

Year	Winner	Odds
2024	William Byron	+1800
2023	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+3300
2022	Austin Cindric	+3300
2021	Michael McDowell	+10000
2020	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2019	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2018	Austin Dillon	+5000
2017	Kurt Busch	+2000
2016	Denny Hamlin	+1000
2015	Joey Logano	+1200
2014	Dale Earnhart Jr.	+1200
2013	Jimmie Johnson	+1400

Nice summary, andy.

**Itsamazing777** · 02-14-25, 04:51 PM

Jones +3700

**SBR Andy** · 02-15-25, 10:46 AM

Daytona 500 predictions and best bets from SBR's C Jackson Cowart:

Pick to win: Joey Logano (+1400 Caesars)

"Let's be real: this race is going to come down to who gets the best restart in the final few laps fter an inevitable late caution. And I trust Logano, a three-time champion and former Daytona 500 winner, to navigate the pack as well as anyone.

Logano was my pick in my Daytona Duels predictions, and he was running near the front of the pack for nearly all 60 laps before slipping to fifth around the final turn. He'll start 10th on Sunday, and his Team Penske teammates - Austin Cindric (second) and Ryan Blaney (16th) - should prove valuable as drafting partners on Sunday.

That should be enough for Logano, who won this race from the fifth spot back in 2015 and has since finished in the top six in five of his nine tries while wrecking out in three of the other four races. That's the risk betting on an aggressive driver at Daytona, but it's also the reward when he reaches Victory Lane, something most have never done here.

Call me crazy, but I think the reigning Cup Series champion still has something to prove after three months of hearing how he was an illegitimate victor last year - a preposterous claim, by the way, for someone who already had two trophies on his mantle before his gutsy run through last year's postseason. I expect him to be gunning for a win on Sunday."

Best value bet to win: Austin Cindric (+2500 Caesars)

"Speaking of Team Penske, it was just three years that a rookie Cindric won his first career Cup Series race in the Daytona 500. He was running in the top five after Stage 2 each of the last two years, and he posted the second-fastest qualifying time on Wednesday before winning the second Duel on Thursday.

So why is he dealing at such long odds to win again on Sunday? With one of the fastest cars in the field and two reliable teammates in Logano and Blaney - two of the best pack racing drivers in the entire field - I love Cindric's chances of cashing another mispriced line at Caesars, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $250 profit."

Best long shot to win: Erik Jones (+5000 bet365)

"It would be easy to dismiss Jones' impressive showing in the Daytona Duels, when he held his own for 150 laps and nearly stole the checkered flag with a daring move on the last lap to finish mere inches away from victory. (He would have won, too, if not for an ill-timed caution around Turn 4 that preemptively ended the race.)

Yet the 28-year-old driver has a history of surprising in the opener, finishing third back in 2019 and posting an eighth-place finish last year. Legacy Motor Club has one combined win in 108 races, which is why a $10 wager at bet365 would return a $500 profit, but he has the savvy to find the right line and dance partners on Sunday. Don't count him out.

Best prop bet: Team Penske to win (+450 BetMGM)

"Cindric's win three years ago is the only win for Team Penske since Logano's victory back in 2015. But I love the value on these +450 odds on another trip to Victory Lane.

Penske features three of the best drivers in the field in Logano, Blaney, and Cindric, who all feature odds of +2000 or shorter across our best sportsbooks. Logano and Blaney, in particular, have been two of the sport's best in drafting races over the last few seasons, while Cindric has been the team's most successful at this track in recent years.

These odds imply a mere 18.18% chance that any one of those three take the checkered flag on Sunday. Given how fast Penske cars looked in qualifying, I'll take that any day."

**SBR Andy** · 02-15-25, 10:51 AM

Daytona 500 trends:

🏎️ Chevrolet has won the Daytona 500 more than any other manufacturer (26), leading Ford (17) and Toyota (three) entering Sunday. Hendrick Motorsports' nine wins are tied for the most all time after winning last year's race.

🏎️ The pole-sitter has won nine times at Daytona (13.64%), the best for any starting position. The No. 2 and No. 4 spot have each won seven times (10.61%), while the No. 7 and No. 9 spots have produced five wins apiece (7.58%).

🏎️ Only five reigning NASCAR Cup Series champions have won the Daytona 500 the following year and none since Dale Jarrett (2000).

🏎️ Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers in career wins (three) and laps led (490) in the Daytona 500 - the latter ranking fifth all time in NASCAR history.

🏎️ Each of the last five winners started outside the top 10 in the starting grid, while seven of the last 10 winners started 10th or worse.

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 02-15-25, 03:46 PM

Get you lotto picks in on this race. So much good value out there

**brock** · 02-15-25, 04:51 PM

Austin Dillon, +3700
Josh Berry, +3700
Can Dillion win again?
Wood brothers win it again (21)

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by brock

Austin Dillon, +3700
Josh Berry, +3700
Can Dillion win again?
Wood brothers win it again (21)

You'd think Berry will give the team a better shot than Burton. But feels like that team is kind of over now to me.

**SBR Andy** · 02-16-25, 11:03 AM

Daytona 500 prop picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Winning Manufacturer: Ford (+160 Caesars)

"I back the Blue Ovals to win at every superspeedway. Why? Well, going back to 2022 - the start of the NextGen Era - Fords have led just over half of all laps on these tracks. If we take out 2022 and look at just the last two years, that number jumps to 64.5%.

A driver in a Ford has led the most laps in the last three Daytona 500s. As a manufacturer, Ford has led the majority of the last three Daytona 500s as well. While late-race chaos often tends to throw a wrench into things, if this race is run clean, Ford gets a better shot to win this race than the odds suggest."

Manufacturer Top 10s: Ford Over 3.5 (+110 Caesars)

"This market is a fun new one at Caesars. Instead of wagering on individual drivers to finish in the top 10, we can bet on how many will meet that threshold from a specific manufacturer. With 13 Fords in a 41-car field, we could expect 3.2 Fords to make the top 10 in an average, randomized outcome.

But Caesars is charging only +110 for us to get over 3.5 Fords in the top 10, which seems low. Ford averaged 4.3 cars inside the top 10 per race over the last three editions of the Great American Race. Add in the three summer races here, and you get 4.3.

At least four Fords have finished inside the top 10 in five of the last six races held at Daytona International Speedway. The line for this wager should probably be four at pick’em odds, not 3.5 with the over at a generous +110."

Matchup: Kyle Busch (-115 Caesars) vs Kyle Larson

"Although Kyle Larson is an incredibly talented driver, superspeedway racing just hasn’t been his thing. Larson has logged zero wins over 21 starts at Daytona, zero top-five finishes, and just five top-10 results with an average finish of 22. A similar pattern holds for Talladega, where he's registered an average finish of 21.9 over 20 starts.

Kyle Busch presents a different story. Superspeedways have been in his wheelhouse for a long time. Busch has recorded a win, nine top-five finishes, 13 top-10 outcomes, and an average result of 18.1 across 39 starts. He's also posted an average finish of 20.2 (and two wins) at Talladega over 39 starts.

These drivers shouldn’t be matched up with each other at these odds."

Long shot bet: John Hunter Nemechek Top 5 finish (+1200 DraftKings)

"You can wager $10 on John Hunter Nemechek just to finish in the top five and make a $120 profit. Remember, it’s a 41-car field this year, so the raw odds of anyone finishing in the top five are 12.1%—far better than the implied odds of 7.7% available for Nemechek to do so at DraftKings.

While Nemechek and Legacy Motor Club struggled last year, superspeedways have been good to the young driver. He's logged an impressive average finish of 11th over four starts at Daytona. That's the best average result of any active driver with multiple starts.

If he can manage to keep his No. 42 Toyota out of trouble, Nemechek possesses the talent and discipline required to bring it home inside the top five. Of course, he'll probably need some help in the form of other drivers crashing out, but this number is too good to pass up."

**Getch13** · 02-16-25, 11:03 AM

Seeing as the Daytona 500 is a crap shoot. (but an awesome race) Here's what I did for today DraftKing Lines

Winning Manufacturer: Ford +150
Top Car Chevy group winner: #24 William Byron +700
Top Car Toyota group winner #23 Bubba Wallace +310

Good Luck to all

**SBR Andy** · 02-16-25, 11:23 AM

Daytona 500 AI predictions from ChatGPT

Pick to win: Kyle Busch

Here's why the AI model is predicting Busch to win this race for the first time in his career:

✅ Experience & track record: His ability to navigate the chaotic nature of Daytona - where multi-car incidents and draft strategies often decide the outcome - has been well documented over his career. His proven racecraft makes him a standout, even when racing from a less-than-ideal starting position (starting 21st in this lineup).

✅ Team strength & strategy: Busch benefits from a team that knows how to set up a car for the unique demands of Daytona. The crew’s expertise in drafting strategy and pit management plays a critical role in ensuring that his car is in peak condition for the final laps.

✅ Market confidence: The current betting odds, with Busch as short as +900 via DraftKings, reflect strong market confidence. These odds not only account for his ability to perform under pressure but also suggest that analysts and bettors alike recognize his favorable matchup in the chaotic dynamics of a Daytona race.

🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (15% chance of winning per AI simulation)

Best prop: Denny Hamlin top 3 finish

Here's why the AI model is predicting Hamlin to finish in the top three at the Daytona 500 for the sixth time in his career:

✅ Proven superspeedway performance: Hamlin has repeatedly shown that he can navigate the chaotic conditions of Daytona, where strategic drafting and positioning are critical. His experience in similar races supports his ability to secure a top-3 finish.

✅ Strong starting position & team strength: Starting eighth, Hamlin benefits from a good track position, and racing with Joe Gibbs Racing means he has the backing of a crew that’s adept at making crucial mid-race adjustments and pit decisions.

✅ Consistency in restrictor plate racing: Over his career, Hamlin has been known to perform well under the unique pressures of restrictor plate racing, making him a reliable pick to be among the leaders in the final stages of the race.

🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (35% chance of a top-3 per AI simulation)

Best long shot to win: AJ Allmendinger

Here's why the AI model is predicting Allmendinger as its best long shot to win this race for the first time:

✅ Versatility & opportunism: While Allmendinger is best known for his road-course prowess, his aggressive driving style and knack for capitalizing on chaotic race conditions make him a potential dark horse at Daytona. He has started 11 Daytona 500s and finished them all, which is the most ever without a DNF.

✅ Team dynamics: Racing for Kaulig Racing, he may benefit from creative drafting partnerships and strategic calls that can pay off in a race where positioning and timing are everything.

✅ Historical context: Daytona’s history of unpredictable outcomes means that a driver outside the usual favorites can sometimes take advantage of a well-timed break or an unexpected incident, turning long-shot status into a winning opportunity.

🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐ (3% chance of winning per AI simulation)

**SBR Andy** · 02-16-25, 11:27 AM

Daytona 500 betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet (tickets) props
1. Denny Hamlin Top 5 (+170)
2. Joey Logano Top 5 (+170)
3. Cody Ware Top 10 (+800)
4. Denny Hamlin Top 3 (+360)
5. Chevrolet manufacturer of winning car (+140)

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

Daytona 500 AI predictions from ChatGPT

Pick to win: Kyle Busch

Here's why the AI model is predicting Busch to win this race for the first time in his career:

✅ Experience & track record:

Experience sure. He's old.

Track record?? Daytona and Talladega are by far his worst two tracks.

AI is trying to make us dumb it gets things completely backwards so often.

It was sucked in by him being the false favorite I guess. But to just make up good track record... sheesh.

**johnnyvegas13** · 02-16-25, 12:39 PM

President Trump will b at the race today

just fyi

**Headsterx** · 02-16-25, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

President Trump will b at the race today

just fyi

Who cares, all we wanna know is if you are picking Bubba to win it all today. 🤣

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Who cares, all we wanna know is if you are picking Bubba to win it all today. 藍

haha... wish I had bet him earlier before odds dropped actually. An actual chance today i think

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 01:17 PM

Hamlin +1300
Chastain +3000
Wrecky Stenhouse +3500

**johnnyvegas13** · 02-16-25, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Who cares, all we wanna know is if you are picking Bubba to win it all today. 藍

I should he is +1700

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 02-16-25, 02:06 PM

Michael McDowell
Todd Gilliland
Ryan Preece

**johnnyvegas13** · 02-16-25, 02:08 PM

I might if Michigan wins

race will prob b live then

**johnnyvegas13** · 02-16-25, 02:09 PM

Nvm I see race just started

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 02:14 PM

Live bets are good in this race. Wait for your guy to drop to back. All of them will at some stage.

**Headsterx** · 02-16-25, 02:45 PM

Anyone knows how long the rain delay will be?

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Anyone knows how long the rain delay will be?

think it takes at least 2 hours to dry it. If it doesnt rain more

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 02-16-25, 05:29 PM

Looks like this is going to be a night race. They should of never started the race.

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 02-16-25, 05:45 PM

I guess not. They must be looking at a different map that I am

**Optional** · 02-16-25, 06:12 PM

Painful start to the season

**ex50warrior** · 02-16-25, 10:21 PM

Dammit, needed Cindric to hang onto the lead on the last lap. So close....

**Optional** · 02-17-25, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by ex50warrior

Dammit, needed Cindric to hang onto the lead on the last lap. So close....

That was a ballbreaker way for it to end. Wanted Hamlin and I know a few people who needed Cindric.

Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions

Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions

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