My picks for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB for the next 150 days...

[usma1992]

	NCAAF	2024Week4				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	South Alabama	40	Appalachian State	39		79	-7	64.5		Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Stanford	25	Syracuse	37		62	-9.5	57
8:00 PM	Illinois	9	Nebraska	20		29	-9	43.5			Under 5*
10:00 PM	San Jose State	24	Washington State	23		47	-14	55		Away Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Houston	17	Cincinnati	25		42	-5.5	48.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Marshall	3	Ohio State	43		46	-39.5	51
12:00 PM	Charlotte	0	Indiana	47		47	-27.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Kansas	26	West Virginia	18		44	-2.5	57.5
12:00 PM	James Madison	3	North Carolina	22		25	-10	48
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	10	Louisville	36		46	-10	58
12:00 PM	North Carolina Sta	18	Clemson	35		53	-17	48			Over 3*
12:00 PM	Rice	7	Army	33		40	-6.5	42.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	12	Louisiana-Lafayett	23		35	3.5	55		Home Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Florida	20	Mississippi State	21		41	4.5	58.5		Home Plus 5*
12:45 PM	Ohio	6	Kentucky	13		19	-18.5	42.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	Ball State	16	Central Michigan	37		53	-7	53
2:00 PM	Virginia	25	Coastal Carolina	31		56	3	55		Home Plus 5*
2:00 PM	Utah State	27	Temple	18		45	6	51.5
2:00 PM	Arkansas State	18	Iowa State	24		42	-21.5	51.5
3:00 PM	Southern Mississip	24	Jacksonville State	23		47	-6	61		Away Plus 3*
3:30 PM	Kent State	0	Penn State	49		49	-49.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Buffalo	3	Northern Illinois	31		34	-14	45
3:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Virginia Tech	21		47	-4.5	45
3:30 PM	Arkansas	38	Auburn	22		60	-4	58		Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Arizona State	39	Texas Tech	39		78	-3.5	60.5
3:30 PM	USC	32	Michigan	7		39	5.5	46.5
3:30 PM	UCLA	6	LSU	35		41	-23	56.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	0	Notre Dame	35		35	-27	43.5			Under 3*
3:30 PM	Memphis	20	Navy	26		46	10.5	50.5
4:00 PM	Utah	31	Oklahoma State	26		57	-2.5	52		Away Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Duke	42	Middle Tennessee	5		47	14	53.5
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	3	Missouri	43		46	-21	54
5:00 PM	UTEP	18	Colorado State	26		44	-10	50.5
5:00 PM	TCU	26	SMU	27		53	2.5	58		Home Plus 3*
6:00 PM	East Carolina	24	Liberty	25		49	-7.5	54
7:00 PM	Miami (Florida)	44	South Florida	17		61	18	65
7:00 PM	California	23	Florida State	4		27	-1.5	44.5
7:00 PM	Northwestern	11	Washington	22		33	-11	43.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	Wyoming	16	North Texas	42		58	-9	55.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	24	Connecticut	25		49	-2.5	46.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	23	Louisiana Tech	24		47	-2.5	57			Under 5*
7:00 PM	New Mexico State	10	Sam Houston State	33		43	-14	44
7:00 PM	Toledo	30	Western Kentucky	24		54	0	59
7:30 PM	Akron	6	South Carolina	37		43	-27.5	47
7:30 PM	Iowa	16	Minnesota	10		26	2.5	36			Under 5*
7:30 PM	Tennessee	34	Oklahoma	10		44	0	58
7:30 PM	Bowling Green	14	Texas A&M	37		51	-23	52.5
7:45 PM	Georgia Southern	6	Mississippi	64		70	-35.5	66
8:00 PM	Michigan State	15	Boston College	12		27	-6.5	46
8:00 PM	Baylor	21	Colorado	13		34	-1	53.5
8:00 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	19	Texas	40		59	-45	53
8:30 PM	Fresno State	47	New Mexico	19		66	15	61.5
8:30 PM	Purdue	14	Oregon State	32		46	-6	50.5
10:30 PM	Kansas State	14	BYU	21		35	7	48			Under 5*

I will begin betting on college and NFL this week... maybe a week early but going for it anyway.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[mjsuax13]

This guy is on it. Thanks for sharing.

[usma1992]

Include Tenn -7... sorry they didn't have a line. I am betting this week and the rest of the season. A Quant you can post your picks whenever you see fit. I think you will quickly realize that you have bit off more than you can chew. I have looked at your college picks so far and they have been rough. But it is early. When college basketball hits and you are trying to analyze hundred games on a weekend and it takes me 10 minutes then you will know.

I can only get better. Good luck to all.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[veriableodds]

Great stuff!!
thanks for sharing

[usma1992]

Final Version... A couple of small tweaks but I am concerned about the amount of unders. I will only make adjustments if need be. I might be a week early.

	NCAAF	2024Week4				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	South Alabama	40	Appalachian State	39		79	-7	64.5		Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Stanford	25	Syracuse	37		62	-9.5	57
8:00 PM	Illinois	9	Nebraska	20		29	-9	43.5			Under 5*
10:00 PM	San Jose State	24	Washington State	23		47	-14	55		Away Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Houston	17	Cincinnati	25		42	-5.5	48.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Marshall	3	Ohio State	43		46	-39.5	51
12:00 PM	Charlotte	0	Indiana	47		47	-27.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Kansas	26	West Virginia	18		44	-2.5	57.5
12:00 PM	James Madison	3	North Carolina	22		25	-10	48			Under 5*
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	10	Louisville	36		46	-10	58
12:00 PM	North Carolina Sta	18	Clemson	35		53	-17	48			Over 3*
12:00 PM	Rice	7	Army	33		40	-6.5	42.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	12	Louisiana-Lafayett	23		35	3.5	55		Home Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Florida	20	Mississippi State	21		41	4.5	58.5		Home Plus 5*	Under 3*
12:45 PM	Ohio	6	Kentucky	13		19	-18.5	42.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	Ball State	16	Central Michigan	37		53	-7	53
2:00 PM	Virginia	25	Coastal Carolina	31		56	3	55		Home Plus 5*
2:00 PM	Utah State	27	Temple	18		45	6	51.5
2:00 PM	Arkansas State	18	Iowa State	24		42	-21.5	51.5
3:00 PM	Southern Mississip	24	Jacksonville State	23		47	-6	61		Away Plus 3*
3:30 PM	Kent State	0	Penn State	49		49	-49.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Buffalo	3	Northern Illinois	31		34	-14	45
3:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Virginia Tech	21		47	-4.5	45
3:30 PM	Arkansas	38	Auburn	22		60	-4	58		Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Arizona State	39	Texas Tech	39		78	-3.5	60.5
3:30 PM	USC	32	Michigan	7		39	5.5	46.5
3:30 PM	UCLA	6	LSU	35		41	-23	56.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	0	Notre Dame	35		35	-27	43.5			Under 3*
3:30 PM	Memphis	20	Navy	26		46	10.5	50.5
4:00 PM	Utah	31	Oklahoma State	26		57	-2.5	52		Away Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Duke	42	Middle Tennessee	5		47	14	53.5
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	3	Missouri	43		46	-21	54
5:00 PM	UTEP	18	Colorado State	26		44	-10	50.5
5:00 PM	TCU	26	SMU	27		53	2.5	58		Home Plus 3*
6:00 PM	East Carolina	24	Liberty	25		49	-7.5	54
7:00 PM	Miami (Florida)	44	South Florida	17		61	18	65
7:00 PM	California	23	Florida State	4		27	-1.5	44.5
7:00 PM	Northwestern	11	Washington	22		33	-11	43.5			Under 5*
7:00 PM	Wyoming	16	North Texas	42		58	-9	55.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	24	Connecticut	25		49	-2.5	46.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	23	Louisiana Tech	24		47	-2.5	57			Under 5*
7:00 PM	New Mexico State	10	Sam Houston State	33		43	-14	44
7:00 PM	Toledo	30	Western Kentucky	24		54	0	59
7:30 PM	Akron	6	South Carolina	37		43	-27.5	47
7:30 PM	Iowa	16	Minnesota	10		26	2.5	36			Under 5*
7:30 PM	Tennessee	36	Oklahoma	8		44	7	58		Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Bowling Green	14	Texas A&M	37		51	-23	52.5
7:45 PM	Georgia Southern	6	Mississippi	64		70	-35.5	66
8:00 PM	Michigan State	15	Boston College	12		27	-6.5	46
8:00 PM	Baylor	21	Colorado	13		34	-1	53.5
8:00 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	19	Texas	40		59	-45	53
8:30 PM	Fresno State	47	New Mexico	19		66	15	61.5
8:30 PM	Purdue	14	Oregon State	32		46	-6	50.5
10:30 PM	Kansas State	14	BYU	21		35	7	48			Under 5*

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NFL Picks... Starting betting week 4...Decided to not bet until at least Week 4

	NFL	2024Week3				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	NEWENGLAND	17	NYJETS	12		29	-6.5	37.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	19	PITTSBURGH	24		43	-1	35.5		Home Minus 5*
1:00 PM	CHICAGO	16	INDIANAPOLIS	12		28	-1	43.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	23	MINNESOTA	16		39	1	45
1:00 PM	NYGIANTS	15	CLEVELAND	26		41	-6	38.5		Home Minus 5*	Over 3*
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	24	NEWORLEANS	33		57	-2.5	50		Home Minus 5*
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	TAMPABAY	18		34	-7	39.5		Away Plus 5*
1:00 PM	GREENBAY	22	TENNESSEE	19		41	-3	36.5
4:05 PM	CAROLINA	11	LASVEGAS	23		34	-5	40.5		Home Minus 5*
4:05 PM	MIAMI	20	SEATTLE	23		43	-5	41.5
4:25 PM	DETROIT	29	ARIZONA	25		54	3	52.5
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	28	DALLAS	24		52	1	48.5
4:25 PM	SANFRANCISCO	27	LARAMS	15		42	7.5	44
8:20 PM	KANSASCITY	17	ATLANTA	15		32	3.5	46.5			Under 5*
7:30 PM	JACKSONVILLE	9	BUFFALO	21		30	-5.5	45.5		Home Minus 3*	Under 5*
8:15 PM	WASHINGTON	16	CINCINNATI	18		34	-9	48.5		Away Plus 5*	Under 5*

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

I have decided to not bet week 3 NFL games. Here is the reason... I have looked over my past data and I have decided to wait until NFL games get to a reasonable number. Week 4... I have posted my picks but I have come to the conclusion that I can not accurately predict reasonably any game based on two outings.

I am currently betting 13 bets in the NFL on a total of 16 games. My numbers need to get down to below 10 bets per week. I will then believe that my statistics have normalized.

In truth, college football bets are the same way so be careful. This week is averaging 23 bets which is way above the 13-15 bets that I average. Which means, I should have waited a week.

I will stand by my college bets for the sake of this competition. Next year, I plan to begin betting when my numbers normalize. I will only know this when the system runs its bets. 23 bets on college is way too high. I definitely should have waited a week. However, I stand by my college picks and I will take the rubbing from A Quant or whoever wants to bring it. I shouldn't have based when I start betting on weeks... I should have based it on when my numbers normalize.

NFL picks are way above the normal. I will wait until week 4 to bet.

This competition is already making my approach better. A Quant ... thank you.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

Dave-- Ball busting aside---

Best of luck. I hope you crush it. I really do.

Cash those tickets.

[A Quant]

Dave-- I did not look at numbers, but looks like you did a good job.

I am posting this here now so you will see it.

I am going on a cruise til next Saturday morning, no idea if I will update before then.

Anyway, here are my selections for next week.

Oklahoma State +3 over Kansas State
Arkansas +5.5 over Texas A&M
Nebraska -10 over Purdue
Navy -3 over UAB
Notre Dame -4.5 over Louisville
Duke -3 over North Carolina
Georgia -2.5 over Alabama

[usma1992]

Out of the gate... college football.

14-9... 61%. What I find the most impressive about the 61% is that I was also able to hit that while diversifying my bets. Less risk because I am spread them over 23 games and still 61%

It stayed away from Michigan game. Norman, OK... was great.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Preliminary Version.... Final Version to Follow.

	NCAAF	2024Week5				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Army	41	Temple	4		45	13.5	45.5
7:30 PM	Virginia Tech	8	Miami (Florida)	41		49	-17	56.5
8:00 PM	Washington	19	Rutgers	22		41	-2.5	46.5
12:00 PM	Northern Illinois	38	North Carolina Sta	17		55	-7	47
12:00 PM	Maryland	19	Indiana	32		51	-7	56
12:00 PM	Buffalo	11	Connecticut	28		39	-4.5	45.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Western Kentucky	14	Boston College	33		47	-12.5	55.5
12:00 PM	Nebraska	31	Purdue	5		36	10	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	0	Mississippi	37		37	-17.5	52
12:00 PM	Oklahoma State	24	Kansas State	28		52	-5.5	54.5
12:00 PM	South Florida	31	Tulane	30		61	-6.5	63
12:00 PM	Navy	38	UAB	31		69	2.5	56.5
12:00 PM	BYU	16	Baylor	13		29	-3	46
12:00 PM	Minnesota	12	Michigan	9		21	-10	39
1:30 PM	Ball State	19	James Madison	44		63	-19	56
3:00 PM	Texas State	36	Sam Houston State	19		55	8.5	56.5		Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	42	Kent State	0		42	13.5	49.5
3:30 PM	Liberty	40	Appalachian State	25		65	3.5	62.5		Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Georgia Southern	26	Georgia State	39		65	0	57.5			Over 5*
3:30 PM	San Diego State	17	Central Michigan	24		41	0	54.5
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Lafayett	33	Wake Forest	28		61	-2.5	60		Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Akron	11	Ohio	28		39	-12.5	46.5			Under 3*
3:30 PM	Massachusetts	20	Miami (Ohio)	17		37	-17	46.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Colorado	16	UCF	36		52	-14	63			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Western Michigan	12	Marshall	34		46	-5.5	53.5
3:30 PM	TCU	29	Kansas	26		55	-2.5	60.5
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	19	Auburn	16		35	3	47.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	9	Troy	17		26	-9	45.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Fresno State	20	UNLV	32		52	-4	52.5		Home Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Arkansas	36	Texas A&M	25		61	-4	52			Over 5*
3:30 PM	Louisville	18	Notre Dame	19		37	-4.5	47.5
3:30 PM	Wisconsin	16	USC	34		50	-14	50.5
4:00 PM	UTSA	24	East Carolina	34		58	-4.5	53.5
4:00 PM	North Carolina	25	Duke	27		52	-2.5	55.5
4:15 PM	Mississippi State	3	Texas	56		59	-39	61.5
5:00 PM	Old Dominion	18	Bowling Green	29		47	-9	50
6:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	26	Florida Internatio	12		38	2	51.5
7:00 PM	Stanford	22	Clemson	38		60	-22.5	57
7:00 PM	Iowa State	19	Houston	0		19	12.5	43			Under 3*
7:00 PM	Charlotte	12	Rice	29		41	-6.5	47.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	31	North Texas	41		72	-7	68.5		Home Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Middle Tennessee	9	Memphis	49		58	-24.5	61.5
7:30 PM	Illinois	6	Penn State	29		35	-18.5	47
7:30 PM	Georgia	11	Alabama	17		28	2	50		Home Plus 5*	Under 5*
7:45 PM	South Alabama	28	LSU	37		65	-20.5	64.5
8:00 PM	Florida State	8	SMU	32		40	-5.5	47			Under 3*
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	34	Texas Tech	42		76	-3.5	58		Home Minus 5*	Over 5*
8:00 PM	New Mexico	40	New Mexico State	22		62	7	57.5		Away Minus 3*
8:00 PM	Ohio State	32	Michigan State	4		36	24.5	49.5
8:00 PM	Air Force	28	Wyoming	4		32	2.5	36.5
10:00 PM	Washington State	36	Boise State	43		79	-7	65
10:15 PM	Arizona	10	Utah	34		44	-13	51.5
11:00 PM	Oregon	42	UCLA	0		42	24.5	55.5

First take on Week 5 Picks.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Final Version Week 5. Made some upgrades... 14-9 so far this season based on Week 4... Let's see what we can do.

	NCAAF	2024Week5				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Army	41	Temple	4		45	13.5	45.5
7:30 PM	Virginia Tech	8	Miami (Florida)	41		49	-17	56.5
8:00 PM	Washington	19	Rutgers	22		41	-2.5	46.5
12:00 PM	Northern Illinois	38	North Carolina Sta	17		55	-7	47
12:00 PM	Maryland	19	Indiana	32		51	-7	56
12:00 PM	Buffalo	11	Connecticut	28		39	-4.5	45.5		Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Western Kentucky	14	Boston College	33		47	-12.5	55.5
12:00 PM	Nebraska	31	Purdue	5		36	10	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	0	Mississippi	37		37	-17.5	52
12:00 PM	Oklahoma State	24	Kansas State	28		52	-5.5	54.5
12:00 PM	South Florida	31	Tulane	30		61	-6.5	63
12:00 PM	Navy	38	UAB	31		69	2.5	56.5
12:00 PM	BYU	16	Baylor	13		29	-3	46
12:00 PM	Minnesota	12	Michigan	9		21	-10	39
1:30 PM	Ball State	19	James Madison	44		63	-19	56
3:00 PM	Texas State	36	Sam Houston State	19		55	8.5	56.5		Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	42	Kent State	0		42	13.5	49.5
3:30 PM	Liberty	40	Appalachian State	25		65	3.5	62.5		Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Georgia Southern	26	Georgia State	39		65	0	57.5			Over 5*
3:30 PM	San Diego State	17	Central Michigan	24		41	0	54.5
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Lafayett	33	Wake Forest	28		61	-2.5	60		Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Akron	11	Ohio	28		39	-12.5	46.5
3:30 PM	Massachusetts	20	Miami (Ohio)	17		37	-17	46.5
3:30 PM	Colorado	16	UCF	36		52	-14	63			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Western Michigan	12	Marshall	34		46	-5.5	53.5
3:30 PM	TCU	29	Kansas	26		55	-2.5	60.5
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	19	Auburn	16		35	3	47.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	9	Troy	17		26	-9	45.5			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Fresno State	20	UNLV	32		52	-4	52.5		Home Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Arkansas	36	Texas A&M	25		61	-4	52			Over 5*
3:30 PM	Louisville	18	Notre Dame	19		37	-4.5	47.5
3:30 PM	Wisconsin	16	USC	34		50	-14	50.5
4:00 PM	UTSA	24	East Carolina	34		58	-4.5	53.5
4:00 PM	North Carolina	25	Duke	27		52	-2.5	55.5
4:15 PM	Mississippi State	3	Texas	56		59	-39	61.5
5:00 PM	Old Dominion	18	Bowling Green	29		47	-9	50
6:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	26	Florida Internatio	12		38	2	51.5
7:00 PM	Stanford	22	Clemson	38		60	-22.5	57
7:00 PM	Iowa State	19	Houston	0		19	12.5	43			Under 3*
7:00 PM	Charlotte	12	Rice	29		41	-6.5	47.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	31	North Texas	41		72	-7	68.5		Home Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Middle Tennessee	9	Memphis	49		58	-24.5	61.5
7:30 PM	Illinois	6	Penn State	29		35	-18.5	47
7:30 PM	Georgia	11	Alabama	17		28	2	50			Under 5*
7:45 PM	South Alabama	28	LSU	37		65	-20.5	64.5
8:00 PM	Florida State	8	SMU	32		40	-5.5	47
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	34	Texas Tech	42		76	-3.5	58		Home Minus 5*	Over 5*
8:00 PM	New Mexico	40	New Mexico State	22		62	7	57.5		Away Minus 3*
8:00 PM	Ohio State	32	Michigan State	4		36	24.5	49.5
8:00 PM	Air Force	28	Wyoming	4		32	2.5	36.5
10:00 PM	Washington State	36	Boise State	43		79	-7	65
10:15 PM	Arizona	10	Utah	34		44	-13	51.5
11:00 PM	Oregon	42	UCLA	0		42	24.5	55.5

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

NFL Picks Week 4... Time to start betting.

	NFL	2024Week4				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	DALLAS	30	NYGIANTS	21		51	4.5	44			Over 3*
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	23	ATLANTA	11		34	-1	43		Away Plus 3*	Under 5*
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	20	INDIANAPOLIS	8		28	2	40			Under 5*
1:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	13	HOUSTON	28		41	-6	45		Home Minus 3*
1:00 PM	MINNESOTA	17	GREENBAY	20		37	-2.5	43.5
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	25	CAROLINA	15		40	5	48.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	LARAMS	18	CHICAGO	25		43	-3	41		Home Minus 5*
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	NYJETS	17		33	-7	38.5
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	30	TAMPABAY	15		45	2.5	44.5			Over 3*
4:05 PM	WASHINGTON	21	ARIZONA	27		48	-3.5	51		Home Minus 5*
4:05 PM	NEWENGLAND	10	SANFRANCISCO	27		37	-10	39.5		Home Minus 3*
4:25 PM	CLEVELAND	21	LASVEGAS	19		40	-1	37.5
4:25 PM	KANSASCITY	30	LACHARGERS	17		47	8	40		Away Minus 5*
8:20 PM	BUFFALO	24	BALTIMORE	24		48	-2.5	46
7:30 PM	TENNESSEE	14	MIAMI	18		32	0	37
8:15 PM	SEATTLE	21	DETROIT	24		45	-4	46.5

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Dropping UNLV game from my picks. The QB has decided not to play because of NIL agreement.

The state of college football is sad at some level. Again, dropping UNLV.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

I hope this doesn't become the norm.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[shantyman]

When you say you were 14-9 last week, what were the 23 plays? There are obviously more than 23 possible selections from looking at the chart.

[usma1992]

I start betting week 4 in both NCAAF and NFL.

NCAAF Week 4... 14-9
NFL no bets yet...

However, NFL went 7-5 in week 3. I just don't bet it.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[shantyman]

I was wondering what NCAAF bets you made last week that resulted in a record of 14-9?

[usma1992]

Look at Post 5 on this thread. I tells you the exact games to bet and the weighting. 3* is 3% of your bankroll 5* is 5% or whatever you can afford but not beyond 5%.

Over/Unders are on the right hand side... spread bets are the second to last column on the right hand side. It is even color coded.

Enjoy
Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Any Opinions about tossing the Georgia State game. I am considering tossing this game also. I have the Over bet but Hurricane is about a Category 4 Hurricane is about to hit land in Florida. I have to imagine residual damage may trickle into Georgia.

Any thoughts? Looks like the storm will hit on Friday so I guess I am just going to let it ride. I still can't believe UNLV QB up and quit. I had already placed my bet and had to cash out at a loss.

I need to decide this year, if it is worth it to lock in better points spreads versus having more game day knowledge. If I had waited until yesterday, I never would have bet the UNLV game.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[redrum448]

I live about 25miles north of Georgia State and its been raining hard for about 20hours now and is supposed to stop about mid day Friday

[Mackballs]

Is there a reason Miami wouldn't qualify as a play when the projected score is 41-8?

[usma1992]

So I try to explain my model to those that care and I appreciate the question about the Miami game. The numbers are only the first step toward creating a bet. I have looked at historical data based on statistical matchups. When I say this... I don't mean how does Vtech do against Miami traditionally. I do not take rivalries or anything like that into account.

I do take Run Away Off vs. Run Home Def and matchups like that into account. If there are matchup issues, I toss the game even if the projected numbers say otherwise.

If you look at my Week 4 picks... those matchup filters... saved me several potentially losing bets. The numbers said one thing. The filters stop me from betting it.

Maybe, I should stop publishing the projected point totals. I understand that it is confusing. However, that is only the first step in my analysis.

If the Miami games turns out to be exactly how my numbers are projected, I examine the filter that tossed the game out and see if I can make it better for next season. I have already that after Week 4.

The difference between my model now and a few years ago is that I am only examining individual games. For instance, the JMU vs. UNC game, I was way off. I wasn't able to create a better filter that eliminated that game and worked over my several years of past history. I can't always upgrade it.

I only bet the games where my numbers and filters are on the same sheet of music.


Dave
Mack the Teach

[Mackballs]

So I try to explain my model to those that care and I appreciate the question about the Miami game. The numbers are only the first step toward creating a bet. I have looked at historical data based on statistical matchups. When I say this... I don't mean how does Vtech do against Miami traditionally. I do not take rivalries or anything like that into account.

I do take Run Away Off vs. Run Home Def and matchups like that into account. If there are matchup issues, I toss the game even if the projected numbers say otherwise.

If you look at my Week 4 picks... those matchup filters... saved me several potentially losing bets. The numbers said one thing. The filters stop me from betting it.

Maybe, I should stop publishing the projected point totals. I understand that it is confusing. However, that is only the first step in my analysis.

If the Miami games turns out to be exactly how my numbers are projected, I examine the filter that tossed the game out and see if I can make it better for next season. I have already that after Week 4.

The difference between my model now and a few years ago is that I am only examining individual games. For instance, the JMU vs. UNC game, I was way off. I wasn't able to create a better filter that eliminated that game and worked over my several years of past history. I can't always upgrade it.

I only bet the games where my numbers and filters are on the same sheet of music.


Dave
Mack the Teach

Got it, makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.

[shantyman]

Thank you. I just had not expanded chart all the way to see the selections on the right side. Good luck with your projections.

[usma1992]

No problem... My concentration right now is making my 3 programs ever so slightly better. I believe that college basketball has shown the most promise and has worked. The true test begins around Thanksgiving. I also believe college football and NFL are there or damn close. So my real concentration now is on bankroll management and my betting philosophy. Unfortunately or fortunately, I have learned many lessons as a stock broker and sports bettor/poker player/gambler that bank roll management is just as important as picking winners.

I never understood how money managers of mutual funds left money sitting in cash while the market trended up or down. Wasn't their job to have that money actively working.

I have my own opinions on this matter as I have matured. The philosophy that I am tossing around regarding my programs is quite simple. Treat every program as an individual program. Be comfortable with a 2% bank roll for 3 star game... 3% bank roll for 4 star game... and 4% bank roll for a 5 star game. This is below what I am currently betting but I believe I need to shift it down.

However, my belief is that the betting bank roll management has to be dynamic with regard to my system. If the system hits 50 or higher... you stay in the 2%,3%, and 4% range for the equivalent stars. However, if it has an off week in its respective sport 30-50% range you raise the percentage bankroll to 3%,4% ,and 5%. If it has another off week... you go higher.

I don't think my analysis is off... and I plan to begin to implement my philosophy soon. I am sure that a few individuals will ridicule me... but what I am trying to take to the next level is that if my programs really work... how do I protect against an awful week which will happen and still maximize profit in the long run.

Dave
Mack the Teach

GO ARMY

[usma1992]

#1... Can I tell you how much I hate betting on the NFL Overs? I just hate it but I am trying to be fair to the math and I lost last night on the Cowboys game. 0-1 to start the weekend. I hate that also. Thursday night really helps my spirits when I win a game or two.

#2. Army versus Temple. I had the score 41-4. It turns out the score was 42-14 which is reasonably close. Why didn't the system pick the game?

Here is my process... First, I generate the projected scores then I have filters that eliminate games based on historical data of similar teams and similar stats playing each other. So, on a game like the Army Temple game which I should have obviously bet, I will look into what filter caused it to be kicked out. I will then try to change the algorithm to include the game.

The problem however is that the algorithm that I changed to incorporate that game has to work over the previous seasons. I test it on the current model to include the game but if it doesn't work in the previous seasons... I don't get to update it.

This process believe it or not has really made my models stronger over time. Often, a singular game will highlight a deficiency of previous years that I just didn't see. It doesn't always work, but I enjoy the analysis nonetheless.

Thanks for listening to me vent.

Big Weekend

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

I know it is after the fact... but I was able to eliminate the Over in the Dallas game and back test it and it improved my system. In addition, I was able to incorporate the Army game. I am obviously not taking credit for either... but my whole point is to continually upgrade.

If I see a game that I was right points on but filter kicks it out... I reexamine the filter to find out why. I then change the filter and test that same algorithm on past history. If it works in the past and the present... I upgrade my system. If it doesn't... I don't. The Giants game actually increased the results this year and previous years.

Army game was a one off... but it helps a little. It is fun when you are simply fine tuning... looking for the edge.

Good Luck tomorrow.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Pretty happy with score predictions in first three games. I understand Miami VT was way off but it didn't say to bet it.

Army 41-4 Actual 42-14

Rutgers 22-19 Actual 21-18

Look how damn close that Rutgers score is to reality.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

Back, good luck today Dave.

Sincere post here. Sorry to hear about all your personal stuff going on.

The ball busting on these forums has a strong degree of anonymity, and I forget how easily it is to ignore what people may be going through.

Anyway, hope you have a winning day-- and keep your head up on all stuff at your door. Best of luck.

[usma1992]

Don't get soft on me now, LOL. I need you to be a prick so I make my system better. I am cautiously optimistic about my system. It has come a long long way.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Another successful college football weekend. Lost a couple of games in the last minute but finished 8-6. 57% I'll take it.

Currently 22-15 in college football. Up 7 Units.

Let's see what today brings.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Got Spanked on NFL... Not making any changes for now. May have just bet a week early.

NCAAF 22-15 +7 Units
NFL 3-8 - 5 Units

Overall, +2 Units.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[redrum448]

hmm, i went 4-5-1 yesterday... i guess our spreads were different


"technically" you werent far off on the Atlanta game as you cant count on points off turnovers.

Atlanta got 14 off TOs so adding that to your numbers you get 23-25 and it was actually 24-26

[usma1992]

Preliminary NCAAF PICKS For Weeks 6... I have decided to cap the negative Z Score range after looking at the Michigan Washington game. Washington hasn't played anyone yet so their defensive statistics are off the charts.

	NCAAF	2024Week6				O/U& SPREADS				NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Texas State	40	Troy	10		50	14.5	57
9:00 PM	Sam Houston State	34	UTEP	14		48	10	50
7:00 PM	Jacksonville State	29	Kennesaw State	14		43	14	49
7:30 PM	Houston	5	TCU	34		39	-16.5	50			Under 5*
9:00 PM	Michigan State	5	Oregon	35		40	-23.5	52.5			Under 5*
9:00 PM	Syracuse	28	UNLV	34		62	-4.5	58.5
12:00 PM	Pittsburgh	37	North Carolina	32		69	2.5	64.5
12:00 PM	SMU	22	Louisville	29		51	-6.5	57
12:00 PM	Wake Forest	36	North Carolina Sta	28		64	-5.5	55
12:00 PM	Boston College	19	Virginia	27		46	-3.5	50
12:00 PM	Massachusetts	10	Northern Illinois	35		45	-17.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Navy	34	Air Force	23		57	8.5	36
12:00 PM	Army	36	Tulsa	19		55	10	51
12:00 PM	Missouri	35	Texas A&M	16		51	-1.5	50
12:00 PM	UCLA	0	Penn State	42		42	-27.5	44.5
12:00 PM	Purdue	10	Wisconsin	30		40	-12.5	47
1:00 PM	Tulane	31	UAB	18		49	14	55.5
2:00 PM	Western Michigan	29	Ball State	27		56	7.5	56.5
3:30 PM	East Carolina	38	Charlotte	13		51	7.5	46.5
3:30 PM	Auburn	11	Georgia	29		40	-23.5	52			Under 5*
3:30 PM	Mississippi	36	South Carolina	14		50	9.5	51.5		Away Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Toledo	26		36	-6.5	43.5
3:30 PM	Appalachian State	30	Marshall	32		62	-2	57.5
3:30 PM	Bowling Green	37	Akron	12		49	14	51
3:30 PM	Indiana	32	Northwestern	3		35	13.5	42
3:30 PM	Virginia Tech	28	Stanford	24		52	6.5	54
3:30 PM	Temple	10	Connecticut	42		52	-14	51
3:30 PM	Iowa	12	Ohio State	34		46	-20	44.5
4:00 PM	West Virginia	30	Oklahoma State	37		67	-4	65
4:00 PM	Rutgers	18	Nebraska	23		41	-7	43
4:15 PM	Alabama	35	Vanderbilt	7		42	23.5	54.5
6:30 PM	Colorado State	12	Oregon State	36		48	-13.5	47.5
7:00 PM	Clemson	36	Florida State	12		48	15	47
7:00 PM	Old Dominion	18	Coastal Carolina	32		50	-5	55
7:00 PM	Utah State	19	Boise State	48		67	-26.5	65.5
7:00 PM	James Madison	30	Louisiana-Monroe	3		33	14.5	48.5
7:00 PM	Louisiana-Lafayett	38	Southern Mississip	6		44	14.5	57
7:00 PM	South Alabama	39	Arkansas State	29		68	3.5	62.5
7:30 PM	Nevada	18	San Jose State	31		49	-7	48.5
7:30 PM	Tennessee	41	Arkansas	24		65	13.5	59.5
7:30 PM	Baylor	13	Iowa State	21		34	-12.5	46.5			Under 3*
7:30 PM	USC	31	Minnesota	10		41	8.5	52
7:30 PM	Michigan	6	Washington	24		30	-3	40.5			Under 5*
7:45 PM	UCF	39	Florida	20		59	-1.5	60.5
8:00 PM	Duke	20	Georgia Tech	21		41	-8	54.5			Under 5*
8:00 PM	Kansas	19	Arizona State	29		48	-3	50
8:00 PM	Hawai'i	22	San Diego State	12		34	-2.5	47
10:30 PM	Miami (Florida)	34	California	13		47	12.5	55
11:00 PM	Texas Tech	37	Arizona	32		69	-5.5	62.5

Smaller slate this week.

Dave
Mack the Teach