1. #36
    Brick Tamland
    Brick House!
    Brick Tamland's Avatar SBR MVP
    Join Date: 08-12-05
    Posts: 1,336

    I find myself playing the +1.5 becasue those are the games Pinnacle tells me to play.

  2. #37
    Ganchrow
    Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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    Join Date: 08-28-05
    Posts: 5,011

    Raiders,

    I'm agreeing with you here. I was just trying to answer EBone's question regarding selling a 2-run middle at +185 @ +185 based strictly upon his a priori assumption of a 30% chance of a one-run game either way. I do note that this represents a vast oversimplification.

  3. #38
    EBone
    Washington State +140 over Wichita State
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    This is why I threw it out there. It totally makes sense to me, because of this discussion, that my theory was and is a "vast oversimplification". I should have taken all factors that have been discussed here into account. I guess I got lucky with what I was doing in June and July.

    However, I still think, theoretically, that if I could find, on average, a -1.5 +186 on one side and -1.5 +186 on the other side and found that situation more than 50% of the time, that this would be a good representative sampling in a typical baseball season. The kicker is finding that particular situation more than 50% of the time, which, as I had indicated, was very hard to do. So, maybe my point is moot.

    Great stuff though from Raiders and Ganchrow. I sure do like it when I come across people that are smarter than me and share common interests. Learning can be phun.

    E

  4. #39
    Ganchrow
    Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72001
    Good post but +206/-224 is better than -111/+101 for the player. Theoretical hold on +206/-224 is 1.78% while +101/-111 is 2.3%
    Again. Mea culpa.
    I just modified the original post to use better numbers.
    Last edited by ganchrow; 09-16-05 at 11:56 AM.

  5. #40
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar SBR Aristocracy
    Join Date: 07-20-05
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    Some great data here boys

    Good work

  6. #41
    raiders72001
    raiders72001's Avatar Senior Member
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 10,852

    ganchrow-
    Last edited by raiders72001; 09-16-05 at 12:40 PM.

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