Future Fights Thread

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 12:53 AM

One interesting fight coming up is Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia. This fight was originally supposed to be a 3-round contest but it was taken off UFC 202 and subsequently became the main event of UFC Vancouver on August 27th. That means the bout will be scheduled for five rounds. I hit Condit at the opening price of (+120) and I'm glad that bet stayed live after this became a 5-rounder as the change in rounds definitely benefits Condit, given his superior cardio and Maia's tendency to tire even in 3 round bouts.

That said, Maia is capable of submitting anyone and will likely take advantage of Condit's poor takedown defense early. Some fights to check out when capping this event include Condit vs. Kampmann I and II, Condit vs. Macdonald, Maia vs. Laflare, and Maia vs. Macdonald.

Looking at bestfightodds.com's odds histories, the betting public tends to bet on Carlos Condit, with his closing price being worse than his opening price in each of his last six fights. On the other hand, the betting public tends to bet against Demian Maia with his closing odds being more attractive than his opening odds in four of his last five fights. This means that if you like Condit here, it's best to bet him right now, but if you like Maia's chances, waiting until the last few days before the fight will likely get you the best odds.

A few props I will be looking for when they come out:
Condit by late finish: Maia has been known to gas in the later rounds and I think rounds 3 and 4 are where Condit will begin to take over. Moreover, Condit is always looking for a finish and has been known to knockout or submit opponents in the later rounds, even when he is losing the fight (see Condit vs. Macdonald). He has three Round 3 stoppages and two Round 4 stoppages in his career. I'm going to look to bet Condit by Round 3, 4, and 5 finish at significant plus odds.

Maia by Submission: His sub skills are unreal and 25 minutes is a lot of time to choke someone out. Condit's submission defense is good but he does have 3 career submission losses. It's notable that Condit has not lost by submission since 2006 so it's likely his sub defense has improved since then.

Either fighter by Split Decision: I think that if this fight goes to the judge's scorecards, it will be a very tough one to score. Throughout the fight it is likely that both fighter's will have their moments with Condit dominating on the feet and Maia winning the grappling exchanges. This could lead to some close rounds with the judges having differing opinions. I see Maia winning the first and possibly second round using his takedowns and top control while Condit will come on stronger in the third and win the fourth and fifth rounds more clearly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a (48-47, 48-47, 47-48) type split decision in this contest and the split decision prop usually has great odds.

**JIBBBY** · 08-01-16, 01:06 AM

Not sure Maia is gonna be able to sub out Condit but if he works his way into side control, mounts or takes the back anything can happen. Condit does have an active guard though..

I do like DM's chances of getting the fight to the ground in every round though..
This will be a very tough fight for Maia if the fight drags on though like you said Hugo.. Round 4 and 5 especially... Condit will have a huge advantage standing late in this fight if Maia can't ground him...

I already took DM for a nickle a while ago.. I'm pissed that it's now a 5 rounder.. Locked and loaded... Going with my boy DM and no backing out now....

I look at the way DM handled Neil Magny another tall fighter just like Condit on the ground, he was controlled very easily by Maia and mounted soon after.... The take downs will come early and often for Maia so we'll see just how well Condit can defend against a world champion Jits fighter like DM on top of him.......

I can see DM winning the first 3 rounds in dominate ground positions and then hanging on in rounds 4 and 5 for the split win.. Condit by KO for the hedge is a possibility as well that's still hanging over my head..

$500.00

$525.00

Pending

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Not sure Maia is gonna be able to sub out Condit but if he works his way into side control, mounts or takes the back anything can happen. Condit does have an active guard though..

I do like DM's chances of getting the fight to the ground in every round though..
This will be a very tough fight for Maia if the fight drags on though like you said Hugo.. Round 4 and 5 especially... Condit will have a huge advantage standing late in this fight if Maia can't ground him...

I already took DM for a nickle a while ago.. I'm pissed that it's now a 5 rounder.. Locked and loaded... Going with my boy DM and no backing out now....

I look at the way DM handled Neil Magny another tall fighter just like Condit on the ground, he was controlled very easily by Maia and mounted soon after.... The take downs will come early and often for Maia so we'll see just how well Condit can defend against a world champion Jits fighter like DM on top of him.......

I can see DM winning the first 3 rounds in dominate ground positions and then hanging on in rounds 4 and 5 for the split win.. Condit by KO for the hedge is a possibility as well that's still hanging over my head..

$500.00

$525.00

Pending

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

Since you have a big pre-fight stake on Maia, you should consider live-hedging Condit after Round 2 and possibly Round 3. If Maia is wins the first two rounds, rounds 3 and 4 are likely to be the turning point. By betting Condit after R2 in a fight that he's losing, you should be able to get good +odds so you can guarantee a nice profit if Maia fades and gets finished or loses a close decision.

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 02:18 AM

5 round fight condit takes this all day long , i grabbed it at +110 luckily, i see its already at -120
i highly doubt condit gets subbed hes super crafty on the ground, i think maia probably beats him round 1 and possibly 2 but then starts to fade and gets finished late.. 3 round fight it would be a toss up slightly lean maia but in a 5 rounder this greatly boosts condits chance of victory

also looking at future odds a few things i like with no descriptions yet since its late and im to lazy to write them up rn
arlovski +140 over barnett could have some value
ufc 203 i think werdum -185 over rothwell, a lot of juice but werdum is a terrible style matchup for ben here
also slightly leaning nate at + odds over connor but im torn on that fight still
rick story +160 over donald cerrone is a live dog to imo

**ufcfan2016** · 08-01-16, 07:48 AM

this fight in hindsight looks easy for maia based on condit horrible takedown defense,

maia in 3round is just right..anything more then 3 rounds he would lose to almost any1 with good conditioning. (look at rory fight - 3 rounds only too)

taking maia at + money is the only pick. i like to see someone convince me to take condit.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 08-01-16, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

5 round fight condit takes this all day long , i grabbed it at +110 luckily, i see its already at -120
i highly doubt condit gets subbed hes super crafty on the ground, i think maia probably beats him round 1 and possibly 2 but then starts to fade and gets finished late.. 3 round fight it would be a toss up slightly lean maia but in a 5 rounder this greatly boosts condits chance of victory

also looking at future odds a few things i like with no descriptions yet since its late and im to lazy to write them up rn
arlovski +140 over barnett could have some value
ufc 203 i think werdum -185 over rothwell, a lot of juice but werdum is a terrible style matchup for ben here
also slightly leaning nate at + odds over connor but im torn on that fight still
rick story +160 over donald cerrone is a live dog to imo

I sense another Lawler like burial for you here, killex

I LOVE Condit, he is one of my favorite fighters. That said, I'm not sure there is a worse matchup for him than Maia. Condit's takedown D is his achilles heel and I expect Maia to have him on the ground numerous times.

**JIBBBY** · 08-01-16, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

also looking at future odds a few things i like with no descriptions yet since its late and im to lazy to write them up rn
arlovski +140 over barnett could have some value
ufc 203 i think werdum -185 over rothwell, a lot of juice but werdum is a terrible style matchup for ben here

How is this a bad match up for Big Ben?

If Werdum can't take down big Ben which I don't think he can, Big Ben is fully capable of striking it out with Werdum standing.. If anything I believe Big Ben has a chance at the KO in this fight..

Big Ben has been on a very good roll of late winning 4 of his last 5 fights, went the distance with JDS in his last fight loss, but JDS looked rejuvenated and great, JDS was a little too fast for Big Ben in that match up, but I do believe JDS is a better striker then Werdum IMO.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Rothwell-2262

Werdum just got dropped by Stipe and could be ripe again for another KO loss in this match up.. I'm kinda liking Big Ben at +160...

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

I sense another Lawler like burial for you here, killex

I LOVE Condit, he is one of my favorite fighters. That said, I'm not sure there is a worse matchup for him than Maia. Condit's takedown D is his achilles heel and I expect Maia to have him on the ground numerous times.

I've watched both fighters throughout their careers and I think condit starches him in a 5 rounder, guess we'll see . Any 2 unit + bet in UFC I'm 15-4 so not to worried about the lawler burial, already have a bet next weekends card to make up for it

watch the Matt brown fight , Maia has some great trips but that's about it , so he needs to close the distance good luck doing that against condit, you may smother him for a round or 2 but I doubt you're going to sub him and you're definitely not lay and praying him for 5 straight rounds, Maia's takedowns in the 3rd vs matt brown were laughable at best , if brown had some ring IQ he easily could've stopped Maia late but he jumped into the clinch after hurting him like an idiot, if condit clips him once hell smell blood it's the natural born killer tko Rd 3/4

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 10:55 AM

Regarding the werdum/rothwell fight I'd rather take the guy who's better at every single aspect of the mma game , werdum is the best grappler in the heavyweight division easily, and his striking is highly highly underrated, he has some amazing kicks and knees in the clinch . Rothwell is imo one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC guys like 30-10 been caught on the juice multiple times and is one of the slowest fighters in the division , put that with werdums distance management and kicks he'll pick apart Rothwell all day .. What's werdums ways to victory ? Sub , Ko,tko , decision , what's rothwells ways to victory here? Basically a Ko that's it
heavyweights be heavyweights so taking the dog is an obvious choice but if you cap the fight you know werdum is much much better then rothwell and should cruise here , rothwells not that great of a fighter he's just an interesting weird dude so people gravitate to him. The sub on josh Barnett was nasty I'll give him that but he hasn't impressed me much . Would much rather take arlovski +140 over Barnett

**JIBBBY** · 08-01-16, 11:14 AM

^^ AA over Barnett I like also Fire.. Can't argue that.. Barnett is fading fast in this sport of MMA..

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^ AA over Barnett I like also Fire.. Can't argue that.. Barnett is fading fast in this sport of MMA..

AA always bringing in that dog money I swear , gotta keep rolling with him

also sidenote that overeem / stipe fight is super tough to cap, overeem seems like a new guy on this run he's being much more methodical and setting up his shots now instead of rushing in , he was getting used to the k1 boxing gloves where you can just keep your guard up and get hit by nothing , mma gloves you'll either get kicked down the middle ( Browne ) or uppercutted (big foot silva) so he changed his game , only problem is stipe is tough as nails and has cardio for days so either overeem knocks him out or I think stipe can take him out late if it goes into deep waters , overeem isn't known for having the best chin, I really wanna see overeem touch the belt but it's gonna be tough for him, Cain and stipe are the worst match ups for him in the division unfortunately

**ufcfan2016** · 08-01-16, 11:38 AM

werdum chin is probably gone, after take one like that you wont recover, if ben even half connect clean and clips werdum he going down. +160 isnt bad. only thing i worry about is if he goes past a round and half, ben cardio always been awful. and i can see him getting pick apart from the outside by werdum leg kicks, look so tentative vs JDS...time will tell where the public will bet this fight and how the odds change

**ufcfan2016** · 08-01-16, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

AA always bringing in that dog money I swear , gotta keep rolling with him

also sidenote that overeem / stipe fight is super tough to cap, overeem seems like a new guy on this run he's being much more methodical and setting up his shots now instead of rushing in , he was getting used to the k1 boxing gloves where you can just keep your guard up and get hit by nothing , mma gloves you'll either get kicked down the middle ( Browne ) or uppercutted (big foot silva) so he changed his game , only problem is stipe is tough as nails and has cardio for days so either overeem knocks him out or I think stipe can take him out late if it goes into deep waters , overeem isn't known for having the best chin, I really wanna see overeem touch the belt but it's gonna be tough for him, Cain and stipe are the worst match ups for him in the division unfortunately

miocic isnt a bad match up for overeem at all, if overeem fight smart like he did vs jds he is more likely to win but 5 rounds.....thats a huge problem for his gas tank, cain is insanely bad match up vs overeem,

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

How is this a bad match up for Big Ben?

If Werdum can't take down big Ben which I don't think he can, Big Ben is fully capable of striking it out with Werdum standing.. If anything I believe Big Ben has a chance at the KO in this fight..

Big Ben has been on a very good roll of late winning 4 of his last 5 fights, went the distance with JDS in his last fight loss, but JDS looked rejuvenated and great, JDS was a little too fast for Big Ben in that match up, but I do believe JDS is a better striker then Werdum IMO.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Rothwell-2262

Werdum just got dropped by Stipe and could be ripe again for another KO loss in this match up.. I'm kinda liking Big Ben at +160...

The way I've bet this fight so far is Rothwell Scorecards = NA (+147) and Werdum Decision (+225). Rothwell is super tough as we saw against JDS and he has the power to KO anyone in this division. Werdum is good but I think Rothwell can finish him. Although Werdum has a superb ground game, he hasn't been getting many takedowns lately and Rothwell won't take him down. I see this one mostly playing out on the feet with Werdum being more technical and winning a decision if it goes the distance.

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by ufcfan2016

miocic isnt a bad match up for overeem at all, if overeem fight smart like he did vs jds he is more likely to win but 5 rounds.....thats a huge problem for his gas tank, cain is insanely bad match up vs overeem,

Stipe can take overeems shots and has cardio/wrestling he's basically a slightly poor mans Cain Velasquez in his prime . If you think Cain is a bad matchup for overeem then so is stipe.. I'll be rooting for overeem but not sure I can bet him in this spot unless he gets +135 or more...

and just because werdum was knocked out by a perfectly placed shot while running in doesn't mean his chin is finished at all lol.. Either way his game plan would be to stick and move on the outside utilizing his kicks until Ben gets gassed then either overwhelm him , try to trip and sub him or ride a ugly boring decision out. Ben hits hard enough to knock any person out good chin or not so regardless he won't wanna get hit clean against Big Ben

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by ufcfan2016

werdum chin is probably gone, after take one like that you wont recover, if ben even half connect clean and clips werdum he going down. +160 isnt bad. only thing i worry about is if he goes past a round and half, ben cardio always been awful. and i can see him getting pick apart from the outside by werdum leg kicks, look so tentative vs JDS...time will tell where the public will bet this fight and how the odds change

ufcfan2016 loves the chin speculation haha. I agree that Werdum can pick him apart at distance and I think this fight actually might look something like Rothwell/JDS.

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

ufcfan2016 loves the chin speculation haha. I agree that Werdum can pick him apart at distance and I think this fight actually might look something like Rothwell/JDS.

when its a suspect shot that puts a guy down and hes been constantly knocked out in his career ill tend to agree and tread lightly
but the only 2 times i remember werdum being knocked out were against JDS that uppercut wouldve knocked out a bull
then against stipe when he was running in hands down and got caught directly on the chin ( wouldve knocked out anybody as well )

werdum definitely has to fight smart here or he could easily get ko'd but i think hell fight more intelligent after that stipe loss , werdum is a legit championship contender/quality fighter .... rothwell is a gatekeeper nothing more , he had a solid underdog run but its over and the fairytale story is finished imo

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

when its a suspect shot that puts a guy down and hes been constantly knocked out in his career ill tend to agree and tread lightly
but the only 2 times i remember werdum being knocked out were against JDS that uppercut wouldve knocked out a bull
then against stipe when he was running in hands down and got caught directly on the chin ( wouldve knocked out anybody as well )

werdum definitely has to fight smart here or he could easily get ko'd but i think hell fight more intelligent after that stipe loss , werdum is a legit championship contender/quality fighter .... rothwell is a gatekeeper nothing more , he had a solid underdog run but its over and the fairytale story is finished imo

Fair enough. I'm trying to stay away from HWs for the most part but decided I'd bet this one small.

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Fair enough. I'm trying to stay away from HWs for the most part but decided I'd bet this one small.

heavyweights you always gotta be careful i agree on that one, one shot can change everything

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 02:29 PM

RDA to fight Tony Ferguson on a Mexico City card in November. Any super early thoughts on this fight?

**Ty$** · 08-01-16, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

RDA to fight Tony Ferguson on a Mexico City card in November. Any super early thoughts on this fight?

IMO. RDA wins prolly by TKO. I was at Fergs last fight and man he looked bad I thought. Poor striking defense. I don't even like RDA. Kinda hate him. But I jus think Ferg leaves himself too open. RDA will have to deal with reach but Vando showed he's supper hittable and can get dropped.

**firekillex** · 08-01-16, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

RDA to fight Tony Ferguson on a Mexico City card in November. Any super early thoughts on this fight?

Wow crazy .... Was thinking theyd go Khabib/tony , rda/barbosa then eddie vs Nate/connor
wonder who they're thinking of giving the shot to now maybe Khabib ??

capping the fight with rda/tony this is a super tough fight , my heart says tony but my gut says rda. Tony has shown he can be hit , he has one hell of a chin but if he gets rocked by rda it could be over. Tony is one of the slickest guys in mma and has a chance to beat any lightweight with that in mind , I'm assuming rda will be the favourite here... Ferguson +145 or more I'll be on him if most likely but not sure where the lines will be on this one

**CaptChaos145** · 08-01-16, 03:58 PM

Love Maia in 3 rounds - like Condit in 5. Maia is so damn good with taking people down and keeping them down he could cinch up 3 rounds and survive rounds 4 & 5. BUT I see Condit landing effective strikes late and finishing Maia. Play the draw prop. $10 will probably pay at least $1,500. Condit will be tentative to strike cause of the TD's. I can't wait for this fight. It should be spectacular.

**CaptChaos145** · 08-01-16, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Not sure Maia is gonna be able to sub out Condit but if he works his way into side control, mounts or takes the back anything can happen. Condit does have an active guard though..

I do like DM's chances of getting the fight to the ground in every round though..
This will be a very tough fight for Maia if the fight drags on though like you said Hugo.. Round 4 and 5 especially... Condit will have a huge advantage standing late in this fight if Maia can't ground him...

I already took DM for a nickle a while ago.. I'm pissed that it's now a 5 rounder.. Locked and loaded... Going with my boy DM and no backing out now....

I look at the way DM handled Neil Magny another tall fighter just like Condit on the ground, he was controlled very easily by Maia and mounted soon after.... The take downs will come early and often for Maia so we'll see just how well Condit can defend against a world champion Jits fighter like DM on top of him.......

I can see DM winning the first 3 rounds in dominate ground positions and then hanging on in rounds 4 and 5 for the split win.. Condit by KO for the hedge is a possibility as well that's still hanging over my head..

$500.00

$525.00

Pending

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

Yeah I just watched the Maia/Laflare fight again and Maia was able to take down a very good wrestler in LaFlare. Condit does not wrestle well and his bjj is good but Condit will be overmatched on the ground. I'm going back and forth on this fight. I think I will pick Maia with a Condit KO hedge. I don't have to or want to pick a winner I just wanna win money on the fight.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

IMO. RDA wins prolly by TKO. I was at Fergs last fight and man he looked bad I thought. Poor striking defense. I don't even like RDA. Kinda hate him. But I jus think Ferg leaves himself too open. RDA will have to deal with reach but Vando showed he's supper hittable and can get dropped.

I was kind of thinking the same thing. My guess is that opening odds will be RDA (-170), Ferguson (+130) and that it will close closer to +110 Ferguson. Also, a lot of Ferguson's recent wins have been submissions and RDA is very tough to submit (1 sub loss due to jaw injury against Guida).

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Yeah I just watched the Maia/Laflare fight again and Maia was able to take down a very good wrestler in LaFlare. Condit does not wrestle well and his bjj is good but Condit will be overmatched on the ground. I'm going back and forth on this fight. I think I will pick Maia with a Condit KO hedge. I don't have to or want to pick a winner I just wanna win money on the fight.

Even though I'm on Condit pre-fight, I think it makes more sense to bet Maia pre-fight and hedge Condit with late finish props and live betting. The draw idea is also worth a sprinkle.

**Ty$** · 08-01-16, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Even though I'm on Condit pre-fight, I think it makes more sense to bet Maia pre-fight and hedge Condit with late finish props and live betting. The draw idea is also worth a sprinkle.

I feel like Condit could easily knock him out fast if Maia comes in like a retard

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

I feel like Condit could easily knock him out fast if Maia comes in like a retard

It's possible, but I don't think he will.

**ufcfan2016** · 08-01-16, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

I feel like Condit could easily knock him out fast if Maia comes in like a retard

what like he was k-1 vs nate marquartd? he doesnt fight like that since then........

**JIBBBY** · 08-01-16, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Yeah I just watched the Maia/Laflare fight again and Maia was able to take down a very good wrestler in LaFlare. Condit does not wrestle well and his bjj is good but Condit will be overmatched on the ground. I'm going back and forth on this fight. I think I will pick Maia with a Condit KO hedge. I don't have to or want to pick a winner I just wanna win money on the fight.

He also took down Matt Brown at will in their fight.. Took the back of Matt Brown and mounted him a few times.. Eventually choked him out.. Complete ground domination in every round..

Made Gunnar Nelson look like a white belt in their fight.....

Like I said before I believe DM has the best single leg take downs in MMA right now... Deceptively relentless and good with them.. Trip takedowns and doubles aren't shabby either.. Condit will end up on his back alot in this fight..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

He also took down Matt Brown at will in their fight.. Took the back of Matt Brown and mounted him a few times.. Eventually choked him out.. Complete ground domination in every round..

Like I said before I believe DM has the best single leg take downs in MMA right now... Deceptively relentless and good with them.. Trip takedowns and doubles aren't shabby either.. Condit will end up on his back alot in this fight..

Any thoughts on the Pettis-Olivera fight? I'm interested to see what the bookies think of Pettis' recent decline.

**JIBBBY** · 08-01-16, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Any thoughts on the Pettis-Olivera fight? I'm interested to see what the bookies think of Pettis' recent decline.

Gotta go with Olivera.. Pettis hasn't shown me much in recent fights to think he can beat Charles Olivera.. Pettis has lost his last 3 fights if I'm not mistaken now...

**CaptChaos145** · 08-01-16, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

I feel like Condit could easily knock him out fast if Maia comes in like a retard

Yeah but he never does. His TD's are money. I can see Condit timing a flying knee though.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-16, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gotta go with Olivera.. Pettis hasn't shown me much in recent fights to think he can beat Charles Olivera.. Pettis has lost his last 3 fights if I'm not mistaken now...

I was thinking the same thing. Pettis lost decisively to RDA and Barboza and a splitter to Alvarez. I like him but it's possible that the USADA era has caught up with him. Looking to play Olivera pretty big at any +odds. Important to note that Pettis has never been finished so Olivera Decision is also probably a good bet.