UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos (November 05, 2022)

**Brandt Moat** · 11-02-22, 08:08 AM

Sorry guys- Hope ya like Ham & Eggs! Served cold.

**JIBBBY** · 11-03-22, 07:41 PM

Prelim write ups mma mania -

115 lbs.: Polyana Viana vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Polyana Viana (12-5) announced her arrival in UFC’s Strawweight decision with a first round submission of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Maia Kahaunaele. She’s 2-4 since, and most recently saw a two-fight win streak snapped at the hands of Tabatha Ricci.
All of her professional wins have come inside the distance, eight via submission.
Jinh Yu Frey (11-7) followed her winless (0-2) UFC start with consecutive decisions over Gloria de Paula and Ashley Yoder. Then came Vanessa Demopoulos, who defeated Frey via controversial split decision.
She faces two-inch height and reach disadvantages.
Both of these women have underwhelmed in the Octagon, but there’s a key difference. Frey, though she fell back into old habits against Demopoulos, seems to have at least recognized the passivity issues that have dogged her throughout her career. Viana, on the other hand, once again threw away a winnable fight by allowing Ricci to sit in her guard for rounds at a time.
Though I can’t trust either of them to execute to the best of their abilities, Frey seems the likelier of the two to put together and execute a winning gameplan. In the end, she wears down Viana with pressure and racks up top control to claim a decision win.
Prediction: Frey via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Liudvik Sholinian vs. Johnny Munoz Jr.

Liudvik Sholinian (9-2-1) emerged as a Cinderella story on TUF 29, beating top pick Mitch Raposo in the opening round; however, he couldn’t get past eventual winner, Ricky Turcios, his next time out. He ultimately made his Octagon debut opposite Jack Shore, resulting in “Palmeyros’” first professional defeat since 2018.
This marks his first professional fight in almost 14 months and just his second since 2019.
Despite a strong start, Johnny Munoz Jr. (11-2) suffered his first professional defeat in his late-notice UFC debut opposite Nate Maness. He got back on track by tapping Jamey Simmons, but later succumbed to Tony Gravely’s power just 68 seconds into their fight.
He’s scored seven submissions and two knockouts as a professional.
The only way Sholinian wins this is by making it unwatchable. Munoz is by far the more fearsome Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, and though he’s not known for his striking, it historically hasn’t been difficult to work around Sholinian’s basic pressure. Thus, the one viable approach for Sholinian is grinding Munoz against the fence (and mat) for as long as possible.
I don’t see it happening. So long as Munoz’s cardio holds up, he should have plenty of chances to initiate the grappling on his own terms. In short, he finds Sholinian’s back and polishes him off late in the first.
Prediction: Munoz via first round submission
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125 lbs.: Carlos Candelario vs. Jake Hadley

Though he lost a controversial decision to Victor Altamirano in his second Contender Series appearance, the efforts of Carlos Candelario (8-2) earned him a spot in the Octagon. He ultimately debuted in May 2022, falling to top prospect Tatsuro Taira.
He is the taller of the two by one inch.
Despite missing weight on Contender Series, a submission of Mitch Raposo impressed Dana White enough to earn Jake Hadley (8-1) a UFC contract. This set up a May 2022 UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, who out-grappled “White Kong” to hand the Brit his first professional defeat.
His professional finishes are split 4/2 between submissions and knockouts.
This feels like another match up where Candelario’s lack of dynamism will come back to bite him. Though he hypothetically possesses the skills to exploit the same weaknesses in Hadley that Nascimento did, Hadley is the significantly faster of the two and the more well-equipped to turn small openings into fight-ending sequences. If Candelario does possess an overall technical edge, which is far from a sure thing, it’s not significant enough to overcome Hadley’s physical advantages.
I’d like to believe that Hadley’s loss to Nascimento was a learning opportunity, and if he’s taken the right lessons from it, Hadley’s in a good position to earn his first UFC win. He bullies Candelario into an ill-advised level change and snatches up his neck.
Prediction: Hadley via first round submission
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135 lbs.: Tamires Vidal vs. Ramona Pascual

Tamires Vidal (6-1) had the misfortune of running into Karol Rosa in just her second professional bout, resulting in her first defeat. Her current five-fight win streak includes two submission wins and a disqualification over Ailin Perez.
She is the shorter of the two by two inches.
Ramona Pascual (6-4) rode a four-fight win streak into her UFC debut, which saw her fall to Josiane Nunes. She was more competitive against Joselyne Edwards her next time out, but still walked away on the wrong end of a controversial decision.
Five of her six wins have come by stoppage, four in the first round.
Pascual is definitely one of the least impressive members of UFC’s Bantamweight division. It was flat-out comedic to watch her eat eight million kicks from Edwards without actually responding. Thing is, Vidal might actually be even more limited. Her stand up is functionally nonexistent outside of an ugly overhand right and she only seems to know one or two takedowns.
Vidal’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu is good enough to win her the day if she ends up on top, but the way Perez rag-dolled her in the clinch suggests that she might not be able to drag down even a poor grappler like Pascual. Pascual’s ability to do damage in the clinch and Vidal’s preference for wading into the pocket should result in a quick, ugly phone booth beatdown by Pascual.
Prediction: Pascual via first round technical knockout

145 lbs.: Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Darrick Minner (26-13) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Grant Dawson with consecutive victories over T.J. Laramie and Charles Rosa. He’s since dropped two straight to Darren Elkins and Ryan Hall, the latter in Dec. 2021.
He’s ended 22 pro fights by submission and one other via (technical) knockout.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (38-10) suffered his second professional loss in four appearances when he fell to Joshua Culibao in his UFC debut. Two straight upsets have bumped his UFC record over .500, the most recent coming over T.J. Brown in June 2022.
He stands one inch taller than Minner, but gives up two inches of reach.
“Wolverine” will want to do his best Elkins impression here. Persistent as he is, he’s not a particularly adept offensive or defensive wrestler, which is a bad issue to have against a grappler of Minner’s caliber. A man who surrendered two takedowns to Sean Soriano of all people is not going to have fun with Minner, who’s taken down four of his five UFC foes at least once and submitted the other.
As with the Elkins fight, of course, there’s a chance that Minner’s ultra-eager submission blitz saps his gas tank and allows Nuerdanbieke to do his usual grind. Assuming Minner’s learned something, though, he should have the goods to overcome Nuerdanbieke’s one-note offense and polish him off on the mat.
Prediction: Minner via first round submission
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125 lbs.: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young

These two were supposed to fight in August before Young botched her weight cut. My thoughts haven’t changed, so I’ll go ahead and re-use what I had ...
Miranda Maverick (12-4) started her UFC career 2-0 before dropping a robbery decision to Maycee Barber and a far more justifiable one to fast-rising Erin Blanchfield. She last saw action in March 2022, choking out Sabina Mazo for her second finish in the Octagon.
That win marked her seventh by submission and eighth overall by stoppage.
Shanna Young (9-5) fell short on Contender Series against Sarah Alpar before losing her first two UFC bouts to Macy Chiasson and Stephanie Egger. With her back against the wall, “The Shanimal” successfully pounded out Gina Mazany to notch her first Octagon victory.
She gives up a half-inch of reach despite being the taller of the two by four inches.
With all due respect to Young, it’s hard to picture a scenario where she wins this. Every single UFC fighter who’s attempted to take her down has done so, and it wasn’t just because of Young’s poor takedown defense; she willingly clinched up with a judo expert in Egger, which ended about as well as you’d think. Maverick’s going to get plenty of opportunities to get her ground game going and is well-equipped to capitalize.
The big question here isn’t whether Maverick will win, but how long she’ll humor Young on the feet before dragging her down and going to work. Maverick finds her way to Young’s back and squeezes her way to another UFC victory.
Prediction: Maverick via second round submission
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135 lbs.: Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez

The UFC debut of Mario Bautista (10-2) saw him step up on short notice to face Cory Sandhagen, who finished him with an armbar late in the first round. He now sits at 4-2 in the Octagon, including a first-round submission of Brian Kelleher last time out.
He gives up one inch of height and four inches of reach to Lopez.
Benito Lopez (10-1) followed his Contender Series decision over Steven Peterson by edging out Albert Morales, only to spend one year on the sidelines and suffer a decision loss to Manny Bermudez upon his return. He returned to the win column his next time out, claiming a third questionable decision over Vince Morales.
He fights for the first time in more than three years.
There’s an argument to be made that Lopez should be on a four-fight losing streak, and the theme is pretty consistent: when his athleticism and flying knees aren’t sufficient to find an early finish, his toolbox isn’t deep enough to carry him through the later rounds. On top of that, those controversial decisions came over opponents who’ve failed to post winning records in the Octagon, which bodes ill for his chances against a genuine threat like Bautista.
To be fair, Lopez has had years to fix the holes in his game, but we weren’t privy to those hypothetical adjustments. I can only work with the data I’m given, and that data says Bautista weathers an early blitz to break down Lopez over the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Bautista via unanimous decision

**JIBBBY** · 11-03-22, 07:41 PM

A few more write ups..

Flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness

Best Win for Ulanbekov? Allan Nascimento For Maness? Tony Gravely
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: This is Maness’ Flyweight debut
How these two match up: This is quite the introduction for Maness to the Flyweight division.
Ulanbekov is a decorated Sambo champion, and he’s looked the part inside the cage. He’s actually a more capable striker than one might expect, but still, the Southpaw absolutely does his best work when chaining together takedowns and working from top position.
That’s precisely the style that saw Maness lost his first UFC bout last time out opposite Umar Nurmagomedov. Prior to that, Maness built a nice three-fight win streak that showed off his well-rounded skill set, physical gifts, and general toughness.
If Maness can make Flyweight successfully and without sacrificing performance, he’s in good position. It’s very difficult to consistently out-wrestle a larger and stronger opponent, especially when that foe has a kickboxing edge and more natural power. This could be an instant entrance to the rankings for Maness — a far shorter journey than the Bantamweight ladder would have been.
Unfortunately, I know a bit about what it takes to make 125 pounds. Maness stands 5’10,” and while he’s not exceptionally muscular for a UFC fighter, he’s also no beanpole. My money is on Maness struggling like heck to make weight, and even if he does beat the scale, he’s still got 15 grueling minutes of wrestling ahead of him.
Sounds like a bad time.
Prediction: Ulanbekov via decision
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Heavyweight: Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian

Best Win for Sherman? Damian Grabowski For Parisian? Alan Baudot
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: It’s low-level Heavyweight MMA
How these two match up: This fight doesn’t deserve a main card slot, no, but both men are good for a brawl.
At this point, the mixed martial arts (MMA) world has pretty much given up on Sherman ever developing into a fighter who consistently wins inside the Octagon. Fortunately, he’s tough as all hell and will fight to the bitter end, which has proven enough to stick around for a good while anyway.
The verdict isn’t quite in on Parisian, but it’s hard to be overly impressed so far. He’s alternated wins and losses through four fights, doing his best work on the canvas, but often struggling to get the fight there.
This is a pretty classic Heavyweight contest in which there’s a clear striker vs. grappler, but that doesn’t mean all that much. Parisian could still ding Sherman with an overhand and end the fight, while Sherman could reverse a crappy shot and finish from top position.
It will always be something of a toss up for those reasons.
Still, I feel mildly confident in “The Vanilla Gorilla.” He’s the better striker by a fair margin, and he’s historically got some reasonably solid takedown defense against opposition of this level. Unless Parisian shows some real improvement, Sherman should win more often than not.
Prediction: Sherman via knockout
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Featherweight: Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen

Best Win for Dawson? Leonardo Santos For Madsen? Vinc Pichel
Current Streak: Dawson is unbeaten in seven UFC fights, while Madsen is 12-0 with four UFC wins
X-Factor: Dawson’s cardio is a bit unpredictable
How these two match up: This is a fun fight between would-be Lightweight contenders.
Dawson has shown some real promise in his unbeaten run. He has great jiu-jitsu, power in his hands, and excellent chain wrestling. However, his momentum has been limited because he’s jumped between weight classes, and on a couple occasions, looked rather vulnerable late in fights.
Still, his results cannot be questioned.
As for Madsen, the Olympian is gunning for the title. I wouldn’t personally predict on such a high rise for the 38 year old. Though his wrestling is obviously strong, he’s had some trouble implementing it in fights, and his kickboxing is fairly average by Lightweight standards.
I would have picked Klose over Madsen without a second thought. Dawson doesn’t match up quite as well stylistically, and the short-notice nature of the booking is concerning given his conditioning flaws (most notably against Rick Glenn). Even so, it’s hard to overlook that Dawson is simply better everywhere. Even in wrestling, he’s the more functionally effective takedown artist inside the cage — Olympic accomplishments be damned.
Being a decade younger doesn’t hurt his odds either. This is Madsen’s first time in the cage with a young, rising UFC Lightweight, and I don’t expect it to go all that well.
Prediction: Dawson via decision

**JIBBBY** · 11-03-22, 07:43 PM

Oh and by the way this card sucks. Hate when chick fights are in the main event. Doesn't mean you can't bet money on it and win though.

**Brandt Moat** · 11-03-22, 11:00 PM

Only input. I like Minner on the upset. Nickel and Dime it boys! GL

**hankcream** · 11-04-22, 09:32 AM

Shitty card so make stupid bets

$50 Maness-Madsen-Minner parlay +2128
$200 Hadley- Bautista-Maverick parlay +116

**Brandt Moat** · 11-04-22, 08:45 PM

Hit a 30-1 on Belal KOing Brady in the 2nd. Had a $50 bill on it. Nice one for me! Was at casino today. Got my 11/12 fight picks down. Just passing here. GL

**hankcream** · 11-04-22, 10:55 PM

The more I look @ this f**king Shit card the more I like it
$200 Ramona P +112
$150 Bautista ITD +125
$345 Maverick ITD -115
$100 Minner by Sub +250
$211 Madsen +190
$423 The Vanilla F-ing Gorilla Sherman-141
$250 Maness +200 -
hoping the judges don’t suck Khabib’s little Dagestany cokk & score it right

Lets F-ing Go

**JIBBBY** · 11-05-22, 10:46 AM

Madson vs Dawson probably the best fight on this card.

Madson older but undefeated. Dawson younger and probably more skilled in every department. Tough fight to bet on.

I hate betting against undefeated fighters but still leaning Dawson inside the distance at +200 as he could expose Madson and eventually break him.. Sub or pound him out on the ground is my thinking.

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 03:17 PM

Minner sub round 1 +1000 (Got it early) hedged with SN decision.

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 03:17 PM

JIBBBY who you rollin' with today bud?

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 03:34 PM

SOMEONE cut that broad already. Holy f uck is Pascual ever awful.

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 04:23 PM

This forum is dead.

**povis** · 11-05-22, 04:40 PM

Madsen live dog bad gas tank but I take it

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 06:08 PM

Late money coming in on 38-yr old Madsen, possibly because of Dawson's opponent change(s). Let's see.

**Merlin21** · 11-05-22, 06:11 PM

Nice price on Madsen

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 06:28 PM

Thanks Jibb!

**Brandt Moat** · 11-05-22, 06:35 PM

Don't have a dime on it, but like Minner. Has to live up to some of the potential. It can't be lost completely. He has this one. GL

**JC2008** · 11-05-22, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by Brandt Moat

Don't have a dime on it, but like Minner. Has to live up to some of the potential. It can't be lost completely. He has this one. GL

Yeah well, huge steam on his opponent so a lot are speculating Minner is injured. I'd be careful.

**Brandt Moat** · 11-05-22, 06:53 PM

Yea, he sustained a concussion during training. I'm not betting him. GL

**Brandt Moat** · 11-05-22, 07:17 PM

Air bets don't hurt when ya lose.

**Kermit** · 11-05-22, 08:18 PM

Lemos just won me a few nice parlays.

**JIBBBY** · 11-05-22, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

Thanks Jibb!

My pleasure JC with the Dawson ITD call at +200.

**Kermit** · 11-05-22, 09:21 PM

Lemos vs Thug Rose next.